GBP/USD Analysis:
Technically, the pound has yet to clear off its resistance at daily EMA200 at 1.600. Last week it attempt but failed and over last Friday, it fall back to 1.58.
today is a day without major news, with both Japan and US banks on holiday.
Looking at the technical side, pound will maintain within trading range of 1.598 and 1.579.
With expection of breakout, if it does above 1.60, it will still face resistance at 1.612. On the down side, support at 1.579 is near, with the next level at 1.59.
Trading plan suggestion: trade long at support or trade short at resistance. Take small profit. CCI has indicated a zone of uncertainty, meaning that it has just reverse down, but it is not a time to enter short.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Thursday, October 08, 2009
8 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Movement was slow, and the pound still managed to maintain and keep within the range of 1.58 and 1.60.
Today, UK CB Leading Index report at 1700hrs SGT. This compound index of 7 economic indicators is based on past data. Despite this fact, the timing, just two hours before the rate decision, can fuel nervousness. The leading index rose in the past four months, with a 0.7% rise last time.
MPC will most likely to maintain interest rates constant. The tentative time for this report is at 1900hrs SGT.
On the technical side, pound has been squeezing since the last week of September. Resistance is at 1.62 and support is at 1.577. The pound continues to form a triangle, meaning trading range became smaller. Yesterday was only within 200 pips.
The news will have impact on the new direction of the pound, that is above 1.60 towards 1.62, then 1.64. Or it may swing down towards 1.57 and head lower towards 1.50.
Trading Suggestion: Do a wait and see before the news decide the direction. The best way to trade is to trade breakout, above 1.62 and below 1.57.
Movement was slow, and the pound still managed to maintain and keep within the range of 1.58 and 1.60.
Today, UK CB Leading Index report at 1700hrs SGT. This compound index of 7 economic indicators is based on past data. Despite this fact, the timing, just two hours before the rate decision, can fuel nervousness. The leading index rose in the past four months, with a 0.7% rise last time.
MPC will most likely to maintain interest rates constant. The tentative time for this report is at 1900hrs SGT.
On the technical side, pound has been squeezing since the last week of September. Resistance is at 1.62 and support is at 1.577. The pound continues to form a triangle, meaning trading range became smaller. Yesterday was only within 200 pips.
The news will have impact on the new direction of the pound, that is above 1.60 towards 1.62, then 1.64. Or it may swing down towards 1.57 and head lower towards 1.50.
Trading Suggestion: Do a wait and see before the news decide the direction. The best way to trade is to trade breakout, above 1.62 and below 1.57.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
7 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound was doing well, hitting high at 1.604 right after hopes for a recovery in the housing market were fuelled today as Halifax, the building society, recorded a 1.6 per cent increase in house prices for September.
But U.K. manufacturing production unexpectedly slumped in August to the lowest level since 1992, a sign the economy is struggling to shake off the recession. This entirely pull the pound back to 1.588.
Today will be a quiet day. Another day of range trading from 1.602 to 1.582. Resistance is still at 1.6025, then 1.6075, then 1.62. If wee can clear 1.6075, there will be a indication for pound to untangle this dead lock of moving side way.
Support is at 1.570, then 1.554. Breaking below 1.570 is a serious indicator for another round of downward movement.
Trading Suggestion: CCI is still "long" but a prolong side movement has already show weakness of reversal. Coupled with the lack of news today, I am expecting a breakout. Therefore if there is a need to trade, trade with taking immediate small profits. Either long of short will be good, but keep within the range of 1.6025 and 1.580
The pound was doing well, hitting high at 1.604 right after hopes for a recovery in the housing market were fuelled today as Halifax, the building society, recorded a 1.6 per cent increase in house prices for September.
But U.K. manufacturing production unexpectedly slumped in August to the lowest level since 1992, a sign the economy is struggling to shake off the recession. This entirely pull the pound back to 1.588.
Today will be a quiet day. Another day of range trading from 1.602 to 1.582. Resistance is still at 1.6025, then 1.6075, then 1.62. If wee can clear 1.6075, there will be a indication for pound to untangle this dead lock of moving side way.
Support is at 1.570, then 1.554. Breaking below 1.570 is a serious indicator for another round of downward movement.
Trading Suggestion: CCI is still "long" but a prolong side movement has already show weakness of reversal. Coupled with the lack of news today, I am expecting a breakout. Therefore if there is a need to trade, trade with taking immediate small profits. Either long of short will be good, but keep within the range of 1.6025 and 1.580
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
6 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound continue to struggle free EMA200 resistance for the week. It has been price range within 1.602 and 1.587, with occassion breaking high to 1.613 and low to 1.580.
Yesterday Britain's services sector grew at its strongest pace in two years in September. For the third quarter, the index averaged 54.2, the best quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2007. It caused the pound to spike high.
During the US opening, the pound fell with dues because of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, hiiting above 50 at 50.9. The Dow open this week with a 100 points.
With the global economy recovering, the demand and the strength of the greenback is back.
There is no news from the US, so it all say by the reports from the UK. At 1600hrs SGT UK Halifax HPI , then at 1630hrs SGT Manufacturing Production. The Halifax HPI has risen in the last two months, and is expected to do so also this time by 0.6%. The Manufacturing Production, published at the same time, is expected to follow with a rise of 0.1%, also for the third consecutive month.
If the good news do follow, the pound still have to clear its resistance at the daily EMA200 at 1.6025. If that can be breach, the target is 1.6075, then 1.620.
Support on the other hand is found at 1.579. It will be drastic to break this support, which will means the pound will weaken towards a new low of 1.549, dampening any prospect of the pound in the long position.
Trade Suggestion: Watch the news and watch the CCI, which happens to be still indicating going long. A good catch is for the pound to clear 1.602 and do a long with small gains towards 1.62. Abandon long position if the results of the news is negative than expected. Watch and see if the support at 1.579 is broken. My suggestion is not to go short yet until the CCI indicate so.
The pound continue to struggle free EMA200 resistance for the week. It has been price range within 1.602 and 1.587, with occassion breaking high to 1.613 and low to 1.580.
Yesterday Britain's services sector grew at its strongest pace in two years in September. For the third quarter, the index averaged 54.2, the best quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2007. It caused the pound to spike high.
During the US opening, the pound fell with dues because of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, hiiting above 50 at 50.9. The Dow open this week with a 100 points.
With the global economy recovering, the demand and the strength of the greenback is back.
There is no news from the US, so it all say by the reports from the UK. At 1600hrs SGT UK Halifax HPI , then at 1630hrs SGT Manufacturing Production. The Halifax HPI has risen in the last two months, and is expected to do so also this time by 0.6%. The Manufacturing Production, published at the same time, is expected to follow with a rise of 0.1%, also for the third consecutive month.
If the good news do follow, the pound still have to clear its resistance at the daily EMA200 at 1.6025. If that can be breach, the target is 1.6075, then 1.620.
Support on the other hand is found at 1.579. It will be drastic to break this support, which will means the pound will weaken towards a new low of 1.549, dampening any prospect of the pound in the long position.
Trade Suggestion: Watch the news and watch the CCI, which happens to be still indicating going long. A good catch is for the pound to clear 1.602 and do a long with small gains towards 1.62. Abandon long position if the results of the news is negative than expected. Watch and see if the support at 1.579 is broken. My suggestion is not to go short yet until the CCI indicate so.
Friday, October 02, 2009
2 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The dollar rose against the euro and a basket of currencies Thursday as disappointing jobs and manufacturing data fueled new worries.
Wall Street shares tumbled after data showed more people than expected filed initial claims for jobless benefits last week, while the manufacturing sector grew less than expected in September.
The pound also suffered a down heading low towards 1.588.
Today at 1400hrs SGT, expect UK Nationwide HPI and at 1630hrs SGT UK Construction PMI.
The pound has been hovering below but around the EMA200 on the daily chart. Whether it will hit high and stay above EMA200 or continue with a down trend towards 1.57.
CCI overall still indicate a up trend, but on the short term, it is good to watch today news for an indication of trend.
If after 1630hrs news, pound hit low below 1.58, the trend will continue for it to hit 1.57, then 1.55. Else resistance is at 1.60, then 1.62.
Trade Suggestion: Trade long in shorter time frame now till the start of news. Once after the news at 1630hrs, trade accordingly to the direction that follow.
The dollar rose against the euro and a basket of currencies Thursday as disappointing jobs and manufacturing data fueled new worries.
Wall Street shares tumbled after data showed more people than expected filed initial claims for jobless benefits last week, while the manufacturing sector grew less than expected in September.
The pound also suffered a down heading low towards 1.588.
Today at 1400hrs SGT, expect UK Nationwide HPI and at 1630hrs SGT UK Construction PMI.
The pound has been hovering below but around the EMA200 on the daily chart. Whether it will hit high and stay above EMA200 or continue with a down trend towards 1.57.
CCI overall still indicate a up trend, but on the short term, it is good to watch today news for an indication of trend.
If after 1630hrs news, pound hit low below 1.58, the trend will continue for it to hit 1.57, then 1.55. Else resistance is at 1.60, then 1.62.
Trade Suggestion: Trade long in shorter time frame now till the start of news. Once after the news at 1630hrs, trade accordingly to the direction that follow.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
1 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
It was all up in the afternoon until the news of US Non Farm Employment Change gave up all the gains. On the stronger side, US reported better than expected GDP.
Three major news will be announced today. One at 1630hrs SGT on UK Manufacturing PMI, at 2030hrs GST US Unemployment Claims and at 2200hrs US Pending Home Sales. Accordingly, both UK and US will be expecting better than expected reported on the economy.
On the techically side, expect a down side as WMA5 still hovers below EMA200 on the daily chart. CCI points to a up trend. If price action can be supported at 1.592 after the UK news, it may rebound back to 1.60. The next support is at 1.579. A failure to rebound may bring the pound further down to 1.50 and you can also expect the CCI to indicate and reverse the trend.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.604, then 1.62, which the pound failed to breakthrough yesterday.
Trend: Up, but it will be safe to enter long at the support. Let go of position if the price action goes below 1.570.
It was all up in the afternoon until the news of US Non Farm Employment Change gave up all the gains. On the stronger side, US reported better than expected GDP.
Three major news will be announced today. One at 1630hrs SGT on UK Manufacturing PMI, at 2030hrs GST US Unemployment Claims and at 2200hrs US Pending Home Sales. Accordingly, both UK and US will be expecting better than expected reported on the economy.
On the techically side, expect a down side as WMA5 still hovers below EMA200 on the daily chart. CCI points to a up trend. If price action can be supported at 1.592 after the UK news, it may rebound back to 1.60. The next support is at 1.579. A failure to rebound may bring the pound further down to 1.50 and you can also expect the CCI to indicate and reverse the trend.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.604, then 1.62, which the pound failed to breakthrough yesterday.
Trend: Up, but it will be safe to enter long at the support. Let go of position if the price action goes below 1.570.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
30 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
This morning UK Consumer Confidence enjoyed its biggest monthly boost in more than 14 years in September as people grew more optimistic about the economic outlook than at any time in the past decade.
Coupled with yesterday news, it seemed that the series of good news brought a halt to the decline of the pound. It swing back from a low of 1.577 on Monday.
CCI should cut the lower BB today, given the spur from the good Consumer Confidence report. This means a stronger confidence for the pound to assume its move up. BUT the constraint comes with the daily EMA200 that sits right above at 1.602. A good breakout is needed at 1.604, before it can touch resistance at 1.61 then 1.62.
Support is at 1.58, then 1.55.
Trend: UP. It will be safe to play long before the resistance at 1.604 and support at 1.58
This morning UK Consumer Confidence enjoyed its biggest monthly boost in more than 14 years in September as people grew more optimistic about the economic outlook than at any time in the past decade.
Coupled with yesterday news, it seemed that the series of good news brought a halt to the decline of the pound. It swing back from a low of 1.577 on Monday.
CCI should cut the lower BB today, given the spur from the good Consumer Confidence report. This means a stronger confidence for the pound to assume its move up. BUT the constraint comes with the daily EMA200 that sits right above at 1.602. A good breakout is needed at 1.604, before it can touch resistance at 1.61 then 1.62.
Support is at 1.58, then 1.55.
Trend: UP. It will be safe to play long before the resistance at 1.604 and support at 1.58
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
29 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
With the WMA5 down below EMA200 on the daily chart, this signify a down trend for the pound. The pound may not hit 1.538, but technically it is a possibility if there is no reversal.
Yesterday, the equalities market did a good run, the Dow gain more than a hundred points.This morning Asian market continue the run up, so will the pound follow? It does, but will the momentum continue to the European market?
Today at 1630hrs, UK will be releasing news on GDP, Current Account, Mortgage Approvals and CBI Realized Sales. These will be news that will send the pound further down or reverse the trend.
Resistance is at 1.605, clearing that will bring pound higher to 1.62. On the hind side, support is at 1.538 then 1.500.
Trend: Not sure. One safer way to play is to wait for the news and determine what the direction of the pound be. The other way is to watch the CCI. It is now oversold. If it cut the BB, it will show a up, but if it does not, wait, else follow the pound down till 1.540.
With the WMA5 down below EMA200 on the daily chart, this signify a down trend for the pound. The pound may not hit 1.538, but technically it is a possibility if there is no reversal.
Yesterday, the equalities market did a good run, the Dow gain more than a hundred points.This morning Asian market continue the run up, so will the pound follow? It does, but will the momentum continue to the European market?
Today at 1630hrs, UK will be releasing news on GDP, Current Account, Mortgage Approvals and CBI Realized Sales. These will be news that will send the pound further down or reverse the trend.
Resistance is at 1.605, clearing that will bring pound higher to 1.62. On the hind side, support is at 1.538 then 1.500.
Trend: Not sure. One safer way to play is to wait for the news and determine what the direction of the pound be. The other way is to watch the CCI. It is now oversold. If it cut the BB, it will show a up, but if it does not, wait, else follow the pound down till 1.540.
Monday, September 28, 2009
28 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Chancellor Darling will speaks today. But whether his words will have any impact for the pound to continue its down trend or reverse, the subject is not clear.
The pound broke daily EMA200. It will continue to journey down. It has already broken support at 1.60 and is now testing 1.58.
Looking at the CCI(34), the pound is looking for a reversal, but this morning a took a nose dive, bringing that reversal looking a bit distance. 1.578 will be a support followed by 1.535.
It is not a moment to reverse, but if so, wait for CCI(34) to clear through BB. Resistance is at 1.600 and beyond that 1.6104.
Trend: It can continue its way down, but it could also reverse. CCI has been over sold but has not showed sign of reversal.
Therefore play at support and resistance line or wait for clearer indication.
Chancellor Darling will speaks today. But whether his words will have any impact for the pound to continue its down trend or reverse, the subject is not clear.
The pound broke daily EMA200. It will continue to journey down. It has already broken support at 1.60 and is now testing 1.58.
Looking at the CCI(34), the pound is looking for a reversal, but this morning a took a nose dive, bringing that reversal looking a bit distance. 1.578 will be a support followed by 1.535.
It is not a moment to reverse, but if so, wait for CCI(34) to clear through BB. Resistance is at 1.600 and beyond that 1.6104.
Trend: It can continue its way down, but it could also reverse. CCI has been over sold but has not showed sign of reversal.
Therefore play at support and resistance line or wait for clearer indication.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
24 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
With MPC (Monetary Policy Committee)of UK, all nine policymakers also voted to hold interest rates at 0.5pc and did not think there had been enough major economic developments to warrant any change to the £50m expansion of quantitative easing agreed in August. This means good news which means to stop printing more pound to sustain the economic developments. The pound climbed as a result by failed to break 1.644.
In the evening, the Fed made in its FOMC meeting that rates will remain, stating that the economy is doing well. The Fed repeated that it "continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." This caused a reversal and strenghtened the USD.
This evening at 2200hrs SGT, US Homes Sale and orders for long- lasting goods probably rose in August, extending gains that have signaled the U.S. is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s.
On the technical anaylsis, the pound has not been able to come out of its 1.64-1.644 resistance barrier. It is now constaint within the daily EMA100 and EMA55, within 1.63 and 1.64.
Will then the evening news or any technical movement break either below 1.627 or break above 1.644?
Trend: A likely scenario will be a range trading in the morning and early after with the band 1.632 and 1.640, with the news from MPC and Fed making no change to their rates. So it will be good to catch a long at 1.632 or a short at 1.64. But once the breakout occur and it is not in favour of your position, its good to close the trade.
Breaking 1.644 will meands pound has the potential to go to 1.65, while breaking below 1.627 will send the pound back to 1.616.
With MPC (Monetary Policy Committee)of UK, all nine policymakers also voted to hold interest rates at 0.5pc and did not think there had been enough major economic developments to warrant any change to the £50m expansion of quantitative easing agreed in August. This means good news which means to stop printing more pound to sustain the economic developments. The pound climbed as a result by failed to break 1.644.
In the evening, the Fed made in its FOMC meeting that rates will remain, stating that the economy is doing well. The Fed repeated that it "continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." This caused a reversal and strenghtened the USD.
This evening at 2200hrs SGT, US Homes Sale and orders for long- lasting goods probably rose in August, extending gains that have signaled the U.S. is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s.
On the technical anaylsis, the pound has not been able to come out of its 1.64-1.644 resistance barrier. It is now constaint within the daily EMA100 and EMA55, within 1.63 and 1.64.
Will then the evening news or any technical movement break either below 1.627 or break above 1.644?
Trend: A likely scenario will be a range trading in the morning and early after with the band 1.632 and 1.640, with the news from MPC and Fed making no change to their rates. So it will be good to catch a long at 1.632 or a short at 1.64. But once the breakout occur and it is not in favour of your position, its good to close the trade.
Breaking 1.644 will meands pound has the potential to go to 1.65, while breaking below 1.627 will send the pound back to 1.616.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
23 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Yesterday, the pound broke resistance line at 1.629, then 1.634 even to clear the hourly EMA200 at 1.636. Now it is trying to hit 1.64, which has been a strong support and resistance line.
No news in the morning or the early afternoon, so it will be again all price action. If it can be supported at 1.636 and remain in range to 1.64. Breaking below 1.636, will bring the support to 1.629 again, then 1.6275. Breaking 1.64 will bring it higher to resistance at 1.644, below it can go above 1.65 level.
The news in the afternoon all point to a better than expected forecast. With the Euro making new high, the pound can make new high after the series of news from 1500 to 1700hrs SGT.
Trend: CCI climbing up, showing a continuation for pound to make new high. Before 1500hrs SGT if pound make new high above 1.64, wait and see if the news bring the price higher above 1.644. If that do, the pound will create more room to move upwards, potentially to 1.65. However, if the news failed to maintain the price above 1.64, the pound may move back towards 1.63.
Yesterday, the pound broke resistance line at 1.629, then 1.634 even to clear the hourly EMA200 at 1.636. Now it is trying to hit 1.64, which has been a strong support and resistance line.
No news in the morning or the early afternoon, so it will be again all price action. If it can be supported at 1.636 and remain in range to 1.64. Breaking below 1.636, will bring the support to 1.629 again, then 1.6275. Breaking 1.64 will bring it higher to resistance at 1.644, below it can go above 1.65 level.
The news in the afternoon all point to a better than expected forecast. With the Euro making new high, the pound can make new high after the series of news from 1500 to 1700hrs SGT.
Trend: CCI climbing up, showing a continuation for pound to make new high. Before 1500hrs SGT if pound make new high above 1.64, wait and see if the news bring the price higher above 1.644. If that do, the pound will create more room to move upwards, potentially to 1.65. However, if the news failed to maintain the price above 1.64, the pound may move back towards 1.63.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
22 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Again today is a day of few major news. Japan is on holiday an Europe and US has no major news to report.
Yesterday, the pound made a down, but was supported at 1.616. In order for pound to continue its way down it has to break 1.61 and better still the daily EMA200 at 1.60.
Without news, the pound will determine the trading range by morning or by afternoon. By morning trading, the pound climbed above 1.622. Should this range continue, the pound will trade within 1.622 and 1.627.
The afternoon session could bring the pound to the next trading range, which can either be 1.616 to 1.621 or 1.629 to 1.634.
If pound break 1.61 it will be a go down and if it break 1.634, it will meet resistance at 1.64, then 1.644.
Trend: Quiet and has to be cautious with trading range yet to be determined.
For conservative trade, do a long at 1.616. Overall trend using the daily CCI showed the pound moving upward, only to take short trade after 1.610.
Again today is a day of few major news. Japan is on holiday an Europe and US has no major news to report.
Yesterday, the pound made a down, but was supported at 1.616. In order for pound to continue its way down it has to break 1.61 and better still the daily EMA200 at 1.60.
Without news, the pound will determine the trading range by morning or by afternoon. By morning trading, the pound climbed above 1.622. Should this range continue, the pound will trade within 1.622 and 1.627.
The afternoon session could bring the pound to the next trading range, which can either be 1.616 to 1.621 or 1.629 to 1.634.
If pound break 1.61 it will be a go down and if it break 1.634, it will meet resistance at 1.64, then 1.644.
Trend: Quiet and has to be cautious with trading range yet to be determined.
For conservative trade, do a long at 1.616. Overall trend using the daily CCI showed the pound moving upward, only to take short trade after 1.610.
Monday, September 21, 2009
21 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analaysis:
It will be a quiet morning with Japan and most of S.E Asian market on holiday. Euopre will too be trading thinly with no major news for the day.
Two news emerged during the weekend. One for the explaination why the pound fell because of fears over the parlous state of the public finances may have helped trigger a stampede away from the pound, Bank of England analysis suggested. The other a positive news on UK housing from Bloomberg, U.K. home sellers raised asking prices in September as confidence in the property market improved and the supply of homes dwindled, Rightmove Plc said.
As such movement of the pound for today will be again based strongly on technicals, as no major news to trigger it in any possible direction.
With a drop below 1.63, it is suggested that the pound will continue to lost ground and hit support line at 1.616, then 1.608.
A likely movement will be for the pound to hit support at 1.616 then rebound to gain 1.629. A break at 1.629 will bring the pound in the up trend towards 1.64.
Trend: There are no clear indication from CCI, which suggest a possible down movement, pending reversal up.
As such, you can trade long at 1.616, SL at 1.608 and TP at 1.629. If you are more daring, do a short now, TP at around 1.616 and 1.608, SL at 1.629. You can also do a short at 1.629, TP at 1.616, TP at 1.64.
Do take profits whenever possible as I expect the market to range between 1.629 and 1.616.
It will be a quiet morning with Japan and most of S.E Asian market on holiday. Euopre will too be trading thinly with no major news for the day.
Two news emerged during the weekend. One for the explaination why the pound fell because of fears over the parlous state of the public finances may have helped trigger a stampede away from the pound, Bank of England analysis suggested. The other a positive news on UK housing from Bloomberg, U.K. home sellers raised asking prices in September as confidence in the property market improved and the supply of homes dwindled, Rightmove Plc said.
As such movement of the pound for today will be again based strongly on technicals, as no major news to trigger it in any possible direction.
With a drop below 1.63, it is suggested that the pound will continue to lost ground and hit support line at 1.616, then 1.608.
A likely movement will be for the pound to hit support at 1.616 then rebound to gain 1.629. A break at 1.629 will bring the pound in the up trend towards 1.64.
Trend: There are no clear indication from CCI, which suggest a possible down movement, pending reversal up.
As such, you can trade long at 1.616, SL at 1.608 and TP at 1.629. If you are more daring, do a short now, TP at around 1.616 and 1.608, SL at 1.629. You can also do a short at 1.629, TP at 1.616, TP at 1.64.
Do take profits whenever possible as I expect the market to range between 1.629 and 1.616.
Friday, September 18, 2009
18 Sep 2009
GU Analysis:
The dollar continue to decline against the euro, as signs the global economic recovery spurring investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding. The Euro went to as high as 1.47.
The pound however was not moved despite the move in Euro. Instead by this morning trade it has fallen back below 1.64.
Unfortunately, there will be no major UK news that will spur the pound back. The halt will mostly be technical at support at 1.63.
If the WMA5 of the daily chart fall below EMA21, hopefully the decline is stop when WMA5 rebound off EMA100. The price action will then be supported at 1.62. But this is most likely unlikely to happen today.
The immediate support for today is at 1.6305. If pound rebound, resistance is at 1.643, then 1.652.
Trend: Down, with the Euro in a most likely state to consolidate downward, the pound will have to give in.
The dollar continue to decline against the euro, as signs the global economic recovery spurring investors to sell the greenback and buy higher-yielding. The Euro went to as high as 1.47.
The pound however was not moved despite the move in Euro. Instead by this morning trade it has fallen back below 1.64.
Unfortunately, there will be no major UK news that will spur the pound back. The halt will mostly be technical at support at 1.63.
If the WMA5 of the daily chart fall below EMA21, hopefully the decline is stop when WMA5 rebound off EMA100. The price action will then be supported at 1.62. But this is most likely unlikely to happen today.
The immediate support for today is at 1.6305. If pound rebound, resistance is at 1.643, then 1.652.
Trend: Down, with the Euro in a most likely state to consolidate downward, the pound will have to give in.
Friday, September 11, 2009
11 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
A major break above 1.66. Pound hit as high as 1.668, only to stay around 1.664. Accordingly, 1.666 will be a strong resistance, meaning that the price action yesterday was just a hit and return. 1.6660 served as a resistance line many times in the past. It was created on October 30th 2008 when is was a swing peak. It was tested over and over in recent months. For one week in August, GBP/USD traded above this line. But after it fell back down, 1.6660 preserved its status.
Yesteday was peppered with good news from Fed, stating that the U.S. economic recovery has started and the Fed could stop short of buying the full amount of mortgage-related securities it said it would buy to boost the economy. Unemployment claim continue to post lower.
Today, at 1630hrs SGT UK will be reporting PPI. The producer price index fell by 1.4%, much more than expected. The fear that Britain is also diving into deflation is strong. This month’s PPI is predicted to rise by 0.6%
If pound can break and stay above 1.666, it will swing higher towards 1.67/ 1.672, then 1.7 is within reach.
Should by this morning trading session, pound failed to stay above 1.6660 and 1.6625, the swing may be downward. Traget is at 1.657.
CCI look up and has yet overbought, therefore indicating momentum to go higher.
Trend: Expecting a price trading range within 1.667 and 1.663. A break will determine the next level at either 1.67 ot 1.660. A strong break from 1.67 and 1.66 will set the direction for today.
A major break above 1.66. Pound hit as high as 1.668, only to stay around 1.664. Accordingly, 1.666 will be a strong resistance, meaning that the price action yesterday was just a hit and return. 1.6660 served as a resistance line many times in the past. It was created on October 30th 2008 when is was a swing peak. It was tested over and over in recent months. For one week in August, GBP/USD traded above this line. But after it fell back down, 1.6660 preserved its status.
Yesteday was peppered with good news from Fed, stating that the U.S. economic recovery has started and the Fed could stop short of buying the full amount of mortgage-related securities it said it would buy to boost the economy. Unemployment claim continue to post lower.
Today, at 1630hrs SGT UK will be reporting PPI. The producer price index fell by 1.4%, much more than expected. The fear that Britain is also diving into deflation is strong. This month’s PPI is predicted to rise by 0.6%
If pound can break and stay above 1.666, it will swing higher towards 1.67/ 1.672, then 1.7 is within reach.
Should by this morning trading session, pound failed to stay above 1.6660 and 1.6625, the swing may be downward. Traget is at 1.657.
CCI look up and has yet overbought, therefore indicating momentum to go higher.
Trend: Expecting a price trading range within 1.667 and 1.663. A break will determine the next level at either 1.67 ot 1.660. A strong break from 1.67 and 1.66 will set the direction for today.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
10 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The equity market and the commodity market is up. Dow was up 50 points and that was in line with what the Fed said about the economy. The return to equity always point to a bugger risk appetite. With the price of crude oil hitting $71 dollar again, showed a weaken dollar.
Both Eur and pound managed to hit high and close high. Pound made another 1.659, but failed to break 1.66.
Today a whole range of news with 1600hrs SGT UK Halifax HPI, 1900hrs UK Official Bank Rate and 2030hrs US Unemployment Claims.
Bank of England policy makers will probably keep pursuing their 175 billion-pound ($290 billion) emergency stimulus program today as the British economy shows signs of lagging behind the global recovery. The rate will also be kept at low.
US will continue to show slow growth with not much a significant change in unemployment claims.
So what will the effect on the pound? If the news manage to break the pound up 1.66, the target will be 1.67/1.672. If however, it sank the pound lower, support can be found at 1.64.
It will be a range trading before the news when all will be on the side line. Price range will be from 1.650 and 1.657.
Trend: depends on news. But looking at the CCI, it is on the up.
Support is at 1.646, then 1.641, breaking it will send it lower to 1.6335.
On the up side, breaking resistance at 1.66, will give room towards 1.67/1.672.
The equity market and the commodity market is up. Dow was up 50 points and that was in line with what the Fed said about the economy. The return to equity always point to a bugger risk appetite. With the price of crude oil hitting $71 dollar again, showed a weaken dollar.
Both Eur and pound managed to hit high and close high. Pound made another 1.659, but failed to break 1.66.
Today a whole range of news with 1600hrs SGT UK Halifax HPI, 1900hrs UK Official Bank Rate and 2030hrs US Unemployment Claims.
Bank of England policy makers will probably keep pursuing their 175 billion-pound ($290 billion) emergency stimulus program today as the British economy shows signs of lagging behind the global recovery. The rate will also be kept at low.
US will continue to show slow growth with not much a significant change in unemployment claims.
So what will the effect on the pound? If the news manage to break the pound up 1.66, the target will be 1.67/1.672. If however, it sank the pound lower, support can be found at 1.64.
It will be a range trading before the news when all will be on the side line. Price range will be from 1.650 and 1.657.
Trend: depends on news. But looking at the CCI, it is on the up.
Support is at 1.646, then 1.641, breaking it will send it lower to 1.6335.
On the up side, breaking resistance at 1.66, will give room towards 1.67/1.672.
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
9 Sep 2009
GU Analysis:
Stock prices rallied this week on further expectations for economic recovery, more merger news and much higher commodity and energy prices.
Both the pound and the euro managed to break high yestarday. Euro made new high, clearing 1.445. While the pound cleared a major resistance at 1.64 and hit almost 1.659 yesterday.
Today, there will be no major news that will disrupt the movement. At 1630hrs SGT, we have UK trade Balanced. Britain traditionally has a deficit in its trade balance. Last month, it posted a slightly bigger than expected deficit – 6.5 billion. It’s expected to return to the previous figure of 6.3 billion this time. No major US news, except FOMC minutes.
If firmly supported at 1.645, pound has only 1.660 as resistance to clear before it gain higher. After a big up yesterday, the expectation is for the pound to retrace. It has retrace to its first support at 1.6488 and has rebound. Use EMA21 on the hour chart as a growing support line. If pound can maintain support at EMA21, it will attempt 1.66 again.
On the down side, retracement can go as low as 1.638 (EMA200 on the hour chart). If pound break below EMA200, prepare to relinguish long for today. You can hold, but truely if pound break below 1.625, the trend will reverse down towards 1.602.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement. You may try to catch long whenever it rebound off EMA21, EMA55 and EMA100 on a hour chart. Use 1.6530, 1.6493, 1.6464 and 1.6435 as take profit line. Be patient. Plan to stop loss below 1.6320.
Stock prices rallied this week on further expectations for economic recovery, more merger news and much higher commodity and energy prices.
Both the pound and the euro managed to break high yestarday. Euro made new high, clearing 1.445. While the pound cleared a major resistance at 1.64 and hit almost 1.659 yesterday.
Today, there will be no major news that will disrupt the movement. At 1630hrs SGT, we have UK trade Balanced. Britain traditionally has a deficit in its trade balance. Last month, it posted a slightly bigger than expected deficit – 6.5 billion. It’s expected to return to the previous figure of 6.3 billion this time. No major US news, except FOMC minutes.
If firmly supported at 1.645, pound has only 1.660 as resistance to clear before it gain higher. After a big up yesterday, the expectation is for the pound to retrace. It has retrace to its first support at 1.6488 and has rebound. Use EMA21 on the hour chart as a growing support line. If pound can maintain support at EMA21, it will attempt 1.66 again.
On the down side, retracement can go as low as 1.638 (EMA200 on the hour chart). If pound break below EMA200, prepare to relinguish long for today. You can hold, but truely if pound break below 1.625, the trend will reverse down towards 1.602.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement. You may try to catch long whenever it rebound off EMA21, EMA55 and EMA100 on a hour chart. Use 1.6530, 1.6493, 1.6464 and 1.6435 as take profit line. Be patient. Plan to stop loss below 1.6320.
7 Sep 2009
GU Analysis:
It will be quiet tonight as the market is closed for US and Canada. There will no news in the afternoon, therefore it will be all price action.
After the G20 meeting, U.K. factories’ output will decline at the slowest pace in more than a year in the next three months as the economy recovers from recession. Britain is showing signs of emerging from the worst recession in a generation after the Bank of England last month voted to buy an additional 75 billion pounds ($123 billion) of bonds with newly created money. Such news gave a boast to the pound.
For and unless the price holds above 1.64, the pound will reach higher, given the "good news". If it break 1.642, the resistance is at 1.646 then 1.655.
If WMA5 fall below the daily EMA55, pound will hit back to 1.626, then 1.620.
Trend: Up. Wait for confrimation to break 1.642. else, try to catch a long at 1.637/1.637, but let go when pound fell below 1.622.
It will be quiet tonight as the market is closed for US and Canada. There will no news in the afternoon, therefore it will be all price action.
After the G20 meeting, U.K. factories’ output will decline at the slowest pace in more than a year in the next three months as the economy recovers from recession. Britain is showing signs of emerging from the worst recession in a generation after the Bank of England last month voted to buy an additional 75 billion pounds ($123 billion) of bonds with newly created money. Such news gave a boast to the pound.
For and unless the price holds above 1.64, the pound will reach higher, given the "good news". If it break 1.642, the resistance is at 1.646 then 1.655.
If WMA5 fall below the daily EMA55, pound will hit back to 1.626, then 1.620.
Trend: Up. Wait for confrimation to break 1.642. else, try to catch a long at 1.637/1.637, but let go when pound fell below 1.622.
Friday, September 04, 2009
4 Sep 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
UK Services PMI continue to hit above 50 at 54.1, showing continuous confidence in recovery. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
In the US, unemplyment claims was lower and so was there improvement in the Non-Manufacturing PMI at 48.4
US equity stopped the down slide and make a +ve return. This morning Asian market at noon time mostly registered in positive territory.
At 1450hrs SGT, ECB President Trichet Speaks and will mention on exit plan for the economic recovery stimulus plan that was implemented.
In the evening, 2030hrs SGT, US Unemployment Rate and Non-farm payroll. Expectation is a drop in numbers pointing to recovery.
As at yesterday, the price action swing the WMA5 above daily EMA100, stoppong the slide towards EMA200 at 1.602. The pound rebound to above 1.63 and now hovers around that.
From the technical point, it has one hurdle that is at 1.645 to clear before any sign of a up trend. WMA5 still hover between 1.645 and 1.620
Trend: Price will continue to range between 1.624 and 1.642. A break in this price will give the next support at 1.612, then 1.602. Resistance at 1.645, then 1.652
UK Services PMI continue to hit above 50 at 54.1, showing continuous confidence in recovery. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.
In the US, unemplyment claims was lower and so was there improvement in the Non-Manufacturing PMI at 48.4
US equity stopped the down slide and make a +ve return. This morning Asian market at noon time mostly registered in positive territory.
At 1450hrs SGT, ECB President Trichet Speaks and will mention on exit plan for the economic recovery stimulus plan that was implemented.
In the evening, 2030hrs SGT, US Unemployment Rate and Non-farm payroll. Expectation is a drop in numbers pointing to recovery.
As at yesterday, the price action swing the WMA5 above daily EMA100, stoppong the slide towards EMA200 at 1.602. The pound rebound to above 1.63 and now hovers around that.
From the technical point, it has one hurdle that is at 1.645 to clear before any sign of a up trend. WMA5 still hover between 1.645 and 1.620
Trend: Price will continue to range between 1.624 and 1.642. A break in this price will give the next support at 1.612, then 1.602. Resistance at 1.645, then 1.652
Monday, August 31, 2009
31 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Today UK is having a bank holiday. So it is all technical for today.
Support continue to be at 1.621 region. A good resistance was built up at 1.64. A likely performance for today will be for the pound to bound between this two price.
Overall for today, CCI is moving side, strongly support a squeeze. The hour chart further confirm the squeeze for the price range to be within 1.622 and 1.634.
So if you are trading long, be sure to let go at 1.620 and for short at 1.64 for short term trade today.
Today UK is having a bank holiday. So it is all technical for today.
Support continue to be at 1.621 region. A good resistance was built up at 1.64. A likely performance for today will be for the pound to bound between this two price.
Overall for today, CCI is moving side, strongly support a squeeze. The hour chart further confirm the squeeze for the price range to be within 1.622 and 1.634.
So if you are trading long, be sure to let go at 1.620 and for short at 1.64 for short term trade today.
Friday, August 28, 2009
28 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Pound continue to plunge throughout European trading and US trading period. The down was largely caused by UK Prelim Business Investment, which was reported at a much lower value.
But, without news, there was a sudden spike at 0200hrs to 0230hrs SGT, bringing the pound back to near 1.63 from a low of 1.616.
This morning, UK Consumer Confidence opened with a slight less than expected result, but caused not much impact.
All eyes will be on UK Revised GDP at 1630hrs SGT. Economists don’t expect a change from the initial read of a 0.8% contraction. A better result will help the beaten Pound.
The spike brought the pound back a support level of 1.62. Now it is resisted by 1.63. The 1 hour chart showed WMA5 between EMA55 and EMA100, meaning that if the price action goes up above EMA100, most likely the pound will stop around 1.640. Breaking 1.64 will help move the pound higher.
On the short, the level of support has moved up to 1.625, the next level is still 1.612.
Trend: Up.
Morning trading will be thin, most likely range within 1.64 and 1.62. Either break in these level gives the pound a direction to follow and continue. CCI look up, so if pound do break 1.633, it will be good to take a long towards 1.64 and wait for a further breakout up. GDP news may disrupt the movement up, so depends on when the breakout occur.
Watch the daily WMA5. If it break below EMA100, it will be all short towards 1.61, then 1.60
For those whose long position is taking profit, you may want to TP around 1.638 or for more conservative, close the trade now.
Pound continue to plunge throughout European trading and US trading period. The down was largely caused by UK Prelim Business Investment, which was reported at a much lower value.
But, without news, there was a sudden spike at 0200hrs to 0230hrs SGT, bringing the pound back to near 1.63 from a low of 1.616.
This morning, UK Consumer Confidence opened with a slight less than expected result, but caused not much impact.
All eyes will be on UK Revised GDP at 1630hrs SGT. Economists don’t expect a change from the initial read of a 0.8% contraction. A better result will help the beaten Pound.
The spike brought the pound back a support level of 1.62. Now it is resisted by 1.63. The 1 hour chart showed WMA5 between EMA55 and EMA100, meaning that if the price action goes up above EMA100, most likely the pound will stop around 1.640. Breaking 1.64 will help move the pound higher.
On the short, the level of support has moved up to 1.625, the next level is still 1.612.
Trend: Up.
Morning trading will be thin, most likely range within 1.64 and 1.62. Either break in these level gives the pound a direction to follow and continue. CCI look up, so if pound do break 1.633, it will be good to take a long towards 1.64 and wait for a further breakout up. GDP news may disrupt the movement up, so depends on when the breakout occur.
Watch the daily WMA5. If it break below EMA100, it will be all short towards 1.61, then 1.60
For those whose long position is taking profit, you may want to TP around 1.638 or for more conservative, close the trade now.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
27 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound was heavily sold yesterday. Eur German brought good news in their business climate, while the US has good news in their durable goods sale and new home sales.
There look clearly that the USD is strengthening after weeks of shorting.
Today at 1400hrs SGT the first in the week on UK major new is Nationwide HPI. A reflection on housing inflation, it is a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. According, the expected is better than forecast. But whether this piece of news can do the reverse for the pound is not clear.
WMA5 went low and pass EMA55, heading towards EMA100. The price was supported by EMA100 at 1.617 and possible for it to go down to 1.612. WMA5 has not broke EMA100, so it is whether pound will continue to push down towards EMA200 at 1.602 or rebound.
If it rebound, resistance is at 1.6405, then 1.654
Trend: Expect the down to continue. But as for today, they may be some halt as pound is near EMA100. Some consolidation is expected. Looking at the candle stick formation, after 3 black crows, yes the trend is down, but also expect a momentarily up for today before and big down or..
For those who hold a long at 1.623 yesterday, continue to hold, but remembered to let go at 1.612. You may set your TP at around 1.635 to 1.642.
If price go down below 1.612, it will be a good short to 1.602 to 1.6595
The pound was heavily sold yesterday. Eur German brought good news in their business climate, while the US has good news in their durable goods sale and new home sales.
There look clearly that the USD is strengthening after weeks of shorting.
Today at 1400hrs SGT the first in the week on UK major new is Nationwide HPI. A reflection on housing inflation, it is a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. According, the expected is better than forecast. But whether this piece of news can do the reverse for the pound is not clear.
WMA5 went low and pass EMA55, heading towards EMA100. The price was supported by EMA100 at 1.617 and possible for it to go down to 1.612. WMA5 has not broke EMA100, so it is whether pound will continue to push down towards EMA200 at 1.602 or rebound.
If it rebound, resistance is at 1.6405, then 1.654
Trend: Expect the down to continue. But as for today, they may be some halt as pound is near EMA100. Some consolidation is expected. Looking at the candle stick formation, after 3 black crows, yes the trend is down, but also expect a momentarily up for today before and big down or..
For those who hold a long at 1.623 yesterday, continue to hold, but remembered to let go at 1.612. You may set your TP at around 1.635 to 1.642.
If price go down below 1.612, it will be a good short to 1.602 to 1.6595
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
26 Aug 2009
I am away for a getaway with my wife, praying for each other and for the family.
GU Analysis:
All the good news, from the way the Dow broke 9500 to US confidence. The Eur gain as both France and German report better than expected recovery in their economy.
BUT it seemed that GBP has failed to catch the same momentum. Even with yesterday BBA Mortgage Approvals reported more than expected, only spike the pound up to 1.644 and retun all the way to 1.632.
It will be a quiet day without UK news. But German will be expected to report better than expected Business Climate. Likewise in the US we may be further expecting good news from Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales at 2030hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT respectively.
BUT will it return the pound back to 1.64?
Looking at the technical, pound has its WMA5, from the daily chart, broke through EMA55. It may be heading towards EMA100 at 1.623. CCI is also going down.
I am expecting another black crow to form today hitting EMA100, before any possible rebound.
Support is at EMA100 at 1.623, then 1.612, then EMA200 at 1.602
Resistance is at 1.643, then 1.6506.
Trend: Down, following a downside momentum.
Because pound is in a state of dispersion, traders will tend to put in in a side line, meaning that there is no direct co relation between news and technical, it is safer to just watch and see.
A good way to play today is to wait and catch a up for a possible rebound at 1.623 and if it break 1.612, abandon long to go short towards 1.602.
If by morning and early afternoon it start to go up, the most it can hit is 1.64. If it break 1.643, catch it long to 1.65.
GU Analysis:
All the good news, from the way the Dow broke 9500 to US confidence. The Eur gain as both France and German report better than expected recovery in their economy.
BUT it seemed that GBP has failed to catch the same momentum. Even with yesterday BBA Mortgage Approvals reported more than expected, only spike the pound up to 1.644 and retun all the way to 1.632.
It will be a quiet day without UK news. But German will be expected to report better than expected Business Climate. Likewise in the US we may be further expecting good news from Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales at 2030hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT respectively.
BUT will it return the pound back to 1.64?
Looking at the technical, pound has its WMA5, from the daily chart, broke through EMA55. It may be heading towards EMA100 at 1.623. CCI is also going down.
I am expecting another black crow to form today hitting EMA100, before any possible rebound.
Support is at EMA100 at 1.623, then 1.612, then EMA200 at 1.602
Resistance is at 1.643, then 1.6506.
Trend: Down, following a downside momentum.
Because pound is in a state of dispersion, traders will tend to put in in a side line, meaning that there is no direct co relation between news and technical, it is safer to just watch and see.
A good way to play today is to wait and catch a up for a possible rebound at 1.623 and if it break 1.612, abandon long to go short towards 1.602.
If by morning and early afternoon it start to go up, the most it can hit is 1.64. If it break 1.643, catch it long to 1.65.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
18 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
AN ugly start of the week with Asia, Europe and US market all recorded selling pressure in their equity market. With such an happening, traders then to flock back to the USD and the yen. As a result, throughout the day was a selling for the pound and the Eur.
Today at 1630hrsSGT, UK will announced CPI, which is predicted to slow down from 1.6% to 1.5%.
On the technicals, CCI is on the way down with no sign of reversal yet. Pound hit EMA55 at support yesterday, hitting a low at 1.628.
There may be some retracement today with resistance at 1.648/1.65 region. The next hight will be 1.654. Breakout thorugh 1.654 may signify pound back in a bullish state, but in the meanwhile is about shorting.
Support may easily break at EMA55 at 1.630, meaning pound will go lower towards 1.620 and potentially 1.60 region.
Trend: Down with lack of better than expected news. Some form of retracement for the pound may take place, before deciding pound to move further up or down.
A good play will be to wait for pound to retrace back to 1.65 before going short or to wait for pound to hit 1.62 for a rebound up. Its a bit difficult to state the direction for today as pound is now in a state of dispersion, meaning it now dangles in between the EMAs.
AN ugly start of the week with Asia, Europe and US market all recorded selling pressure in their equity market. With such an happening, traders then to flock back to the USD and the yen. As a result, throughout the day was a selling for the pound and the Eur.
Today at 1630hrsSGT, UK will announced CPI, which is predicted to slow down from 1.6% to 1.5%.
On the technicals, CCI is on the way down with no sign of reversal yet. Pound hit EMA55 at support yesterday, hitting a low at 1.628.
There may be some retracement today with resistance at 1.648/1.65 region. The next hight will be 1.654. Breakout thorugh 1.654 may signify pound back in a bullish state, but in the meanwhile is about shorting.
Support may easily break at EMA55 at 1.630, meaning pound will go lower towards 1.620 and potentially 1.60 region.
Trend: Down with lack of better than expected news. Some form of retracement for the pound may take place, before deciding pound to move further up or down.
A good play will be to wait for pound to retrace back to 1.65 before going short or to wait for pound to hit 1.62 for a rebound up. Its a bit difficult to state the direction for today as pound is now in a state of dispersion, meaning it now dangles in between the EMAs.
Monday, August 17, 2009
17 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Last week pound took a fall, it failed to break 1.67 and instead head lower to 1.64.
The market looked as they are taking a breather. The Dow and S&P has made new high, so it is time for some consolidation.
BoE announcement on the extended use of 50billion pound has hit the pound hard. Despite the better economic results from France,German, and even UK, it seem that both Eur and GBP choose the opportunity for some selling consolidation.
The is no UK news today. From the technical, pound has been trading within 1.64 and 1.67. The resistance has been lowered to 1.66, frank by daily EMA55 and EMA21 respectively.
Moving lower would be EMA100 at 1.62, while moving higher, pound has to clear 1.67 then 1.682.
Trend: Morning has been under alot of sell pressure. Without news, the pound may not move further below EMA55 too much. Possible of a rebound from 1.64 towards 1.655.
Last week pound took a fall, it failed to break 1.67 and instead head lower to 1.64.
The market looked as they are taking a breather. The Dow and S&P has made new high, so it is time for some consolidation.
BoE announcement on the extended use of 50billion pound has hit the pound hard. Despite the better economic results from France,German, and even UK, it seem that both Eur and GBP choose the opportunity for some selling consolidation.
The is no UK news today. From the technical, pound has been trading within 1.64 and 1.67. The resistance has been lowered to 1.66, frank by daily EMA55 and EMA21 respectively.
Moving lower would be EMA100 at 1.62, while moving higher, pound has to clear 1.67 then 1.682.
Trend: Morning has been under alot of sell pressure. Without news, the pound may not move further below EMA55 too much. Possible of a rebound from 1.64 towards 1.655.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
13 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
According to Bloomberg, The Bank of England said inflation may miss its 2 percent target as the economy endures a ``slow'' recovery and the risk that banks will limit credit. The inflation rate will drop further and economic growth may resume on an annual basis by 2010, according to forecasts released by the central bank today in London.
Claimant and Unemployment both reported slight increase, which negate the pound to a low of 1.639 yesterday.
It is still supported at daily EMA55 during Europe Trading hours. The reversal took place during US opening. Coupled with FOMC annoucement that they would be keeping rates unchanged, the stocks market rallied 120 points.
There are no major news for UK today, so all will be based on US news tonight at 2030hrs SGT. If pound continue to be above EMA55 at 1.65, it can hit back at 1.67 tonight, given a better than expected reported from the US.
Support is at 1.648, then 1.640, followed by a low of 1.62.
Resistance is at 1.662, then 1.672.
Trend: Up, most European currencies are up against the dollars. Given another round of stock rally, dollars may further weaken. A good leading indicator will be the Asian market, which most likely to rally first. Also look at how crude perform during Asian trading hours. If crude rally above 70, a indication of demand, plus a weaker dollars. Pound will stand to gain, given no major news today to disrupt it.
According to Bloomberg, The Bank of England said inflation may miss its 2 percent target as the economy endures a ``slow'' recovery and the risk that banks will limit credit. The inflation rate will drop further and economic growth may resume on an annual basis by 2010, according to forecasts released by the central bank today in London.
Claimant and Unemployment both reported slight increase, which negate the pound to a low of 1.639 yesterday.
It is still supported at daily EMA55 during Europe Trading hours. The reversal took place during US opening. Coupled with FOMC annoucement that they would be keeping rates unchanged, the stocks market rallied 120 points.
There are no major news for UK today, so all will be based on US news tonight at 2030hrs SGT. If pound continue to be above EMA55 at 1.65, it can hit back at 1.67 tonight, given a better than expected reported from the US.
Support is at 1.648, then 1.640, followed by a low of 1.62.
Resistance is at 1.662, then 1.672.
Trend: Up, most European currencies are up against the dollars. Given another round of stock rally, dollars may further weaken. A good leading indicator will be the Asian market, which most likely to rally first. Also look at how crude perform during Asian trading hours. If crude rally above 70, a indication of demand, plus a weaker dollars. Pound will stand to gain, given no major news today to disrupt it.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
12 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Clearly forming a doji and a weak one with only a short range from 1.652 and 1.643. It is a sign of a waiting for another round of breakout.
Today in the afternoon, a series of UK news from 1630hrs to 1730hrs SGT. These include Claimant Count Change and BOE Inflation Report. After the additional injection of 50billion pound, the sterling has been weak. As such any less than expected results from these two will easily signify further downward movement.
On the support, EMA55 at 1.643 region has been tested and could break. The next level is EMA100 at 1.6137.
Of course if a rebound does take place after breaking 1.652, 1.670 will be the target.
CCI is down.
Trend: Down, but a breakout from 1.652 and 1.643 could be possible. Do not expect big movement before the UK news. A clearer move will be after the last news and follow through the direction.
Clearly forming a doji and a weak one with only a short range from 1.652 and 1.643. It is a sign of a waiting for another round of breakout.
Today in the afternoon, a series of UK news from 1630hrs to 1730hrs SGT. These include Claimant Count Change and BOE Inflation Report. After the additional injection of 50billion pound, the sterling has been weak. As such any less than expected results from these two will easily signify further downward movement.
On the support, EMA55 at 1.643 region has been tested and could break. The next level is EMA100 at 1.6137.
Of course if a rebound does take place after breaking 1.652, 1.670 will be the target.
CCI is down.
Trend: Down, but a breakout from 1.652 and 1.643 could be possible. Do not expect big movement before the UK news. A clearer move will be after the last news and follow through the direction.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
11 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Yesterday pound broke and 1.67 support and also the daily EMA21, heading and hit EMA55 at 1.644, despite the absence of news
This morning RICS House Price Balance brought better than expected report and thus push the pound from further slide. It has since rebound 60 pips from yesterday low.
Today at 1630hrs we have UK Trade Balance. Only a much deeper deficit will hurt the Pound.
Support is at the daily EMA55 at 1.644, then 1.625, before 1.6137 at daily EMA100.
Resistance is at 1.658, then back to 1.670 again.
Trend: Up, but possible side movement as the market consolidate before making any direction.
Yesterday pound broke and 1.67 support and also the daily EMA21, heading and hit EMA55 at 1.644, despite the absence of news
This morning RICS House Price Balance brought better than expected report and thus push the pound from further slide. It has since rebound 60 pips from yesterday low.
Today at 1630hrs we have UK Trade Balance. Only a much deeper deficit will hurt the Pound.
Support is at the daily EMA55 at 1.644, then 1.625, before 1.6137 at daily EMA100.
Resistance is at 1.658, then back to 1.670 again.
Trend: Up, but possible side movement as the market consolidate before making any direction.
Monday, August 10, 2009
10 Aug 2009
GU Analysis:
1430hrs SGT
Today is an absence of news, so is all technicals.
Friday, US market rallied again, gaining a good 113 points. This morning, Asian market is up with a further boost from Japan better than expected economic data.
Morning saw the pound move up high to 1.672, but came down shortly just before Europe market opening.
From technicals, support is at 1.662/1.665 region, which is also the daily EMA21. Break this line, we will get the next level of support at 1.651, then 1.640
A poosible rebound off EMA21 will bring pound to 1.678, then 1.694.
CCI just cleared the bottom line of the BB, so setting a downward direction. But a upward pressure is also possible.
Trend: Up, Most likely moving side and trading in the range of 1.672 and 1.662.
1430hrs SGT
Today is an absence of news, so is all technicals.
Friday, US market rallied again, gaining a good 113 points. This morning, Asian market is up with a further boost from Japan better than expected economic data.
Morning saw the pound move up high to 1.672, but came down shortly just before Europe market opening.
From technicals, support is at 1.662/1.665 region, which is also the daily EMA21. Break this line, we will get the next level of support at 1.651, then 1.640
A poosible rebound off EMA21 will bring pound to 1.678, then 1.694.
CCI just cleared the bottom line of the BB, so setting a downward direction. But a upward pressure is also possible.
Trend: Up, Most likely moving side and trading in the range of 1.672 and 1.662.
Friday, August 07, 2009
7 Aug 2009
GU Analysis:
At 1900hrsSGT yesterday, the pound shot down almost 130 pips in 5 min when BoE announced an increase in assest buy-back to top 125 billion pound by another 25 billion pound. 150 billion pound was the approved and now it exceed by 25 billion pound. Investor see it as printing more pound, thus weaken it.
Today at 1630hrsSGT UK PPI report. Then in the evening 2030hrsSGT US Unemployment rate.
The expectation may follow the sentiments of yesterday big drop and further bring the pound to its support level. The expected unemployment is to raise to 9.7%, more than forecast.
CCI has indeed show a downward momentum. From the sets of EMAs using the 1-hour chart, the price now is supported at EMA200 at 1.677. The next support is at daily EMA21 at 1.6645. An immediate support is at 1.6705.
If pound gain upward, resistance is at 1.694, then 1.7005.
Trend: Down and a possibility for pound to move side within range of 1.67 and 1.69, till the release of news to determine direction.
At 1900hrsSGT yesterday, the pound shot down almost 130 pips in 5 min when BoE announced an increase in assest buy-back to top 125 billion pound by another 25 billion pound. 150 billion pound was the approved and now it exceed by 25 billion pound. Investor see it as printing more pound, thus weaken it.
Today at 1630hrsSGT UK PPI report. Then in the evening 2030hrsSGT US Unemployment rate.
The expectation may follow the sentiments of yesterday big drop and further bring the pound to its support level. The expected unemployment is to raise to 9.7%, more than forecast.
CCI has indeed show a downward momentum. From the sets of EMAs using the 1-hour chart, the price now is supported at EMA200 at 1.677. The next support is at daily EMA21 at 1.6645. An immediate support is at 1.6705.
If pound gain upward, resistance is at 1.694, then 1.7005.
Trend: Down and a possibility for pound to move side within range of 1.67 and 1.69, till the release of news to determine direction.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
6 Aug 2009
GU Analysis: Look out for BoE Statement 1900hrsSGT. Cable met resistance at 1.704 yesterday and support at 1.690. BoE report may break the pound in either direction.
Two reports from BoE will be important. One is the interest rate, which may be kept constant at 0.5%. The other is whether BoE decision to increase or decrease bond buy-back.
Coupled with all the recent better than expected UK data releases, a stop in the buy-back will give signs of that the financial plan work.
On the US side, ADP or Non-Farm Employment Change fall below expectation. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. That stall the pound in its advance yesterday.
For a trader that based solely on technicals, CCI pointed to a overbought situation and is showing the movement down. Pound could retraced to support at 1.690, then 1.6780, then 1.6705.
On the up side, expect the pound to clear 1.704 to reached 1.750, using Fib retracement to estimate. 1.82 is the target.
Trend: Afternoon expecting a down, before a possible volatile movement up towards 1.7
Two reports from BoE will be important. One is the interest rate, which may be kept constant at 0.5%. The other is whether BoE decision to increase or decrease bond buy-back.
Coupled with all the recent better than expected UK data releases, a stop in the buy-back will give signs of that the financial plan work.
On the US side, ADP or Non-Farm Employment Change fall below expectation. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. That stall the pound in its advance yesterday.
For a trader that based solely on technicals, CCI pointed to a overbought situation and is showing the movement down. Pound could retraced to support at 1.690, then 1.6780, then 1.6705.
On the up side, expect the pound to clear 1.704 to reached 1.750, using Fib retracement to estimate. 1.82 is the target.
Trend: Afternoon expecting a down, before a possible volatile movement up towards 1.7
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
5 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
After a good run on Monday, there is inevitable profit taking, as seen in the slow down on yesterday.
Pound doji around 1.693, without breaking the peak at 1.700.
More good news will follow today. UK Confidence is up this morning. In the afternoon, we have Halifax HPI, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. News released at 1430hrs SGT. Then at 1630hrs SGT UK Services PMI.
In the evening, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 2015hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
The expected results is better than the forecast, indicating and supporting the fact that the economy has recovered. If so, these will give support for the pound to gain breakout at 1.700.
On the daily chart CCI is very overbought, suggesting a possible consolidation. Support is strong at 1.682 and 1.6705 region. Unlikely for it to reach there today. Possible will be retracement using Fib retracement to 1.685(50%) and 1.682(68%) from peak of 1.7004.
Of course, resistance is at 1.702 and 1.75 (the mid point towards 1.82).
Trend: up
How to trade then? 1.693 has been the mid point for yesterday doji formation. We can trade rebound, given that the possibility of a up trend is high.
After a good run on Monday, there is inevitable profit taking, as seen in the slow down on yesterday.
Pound doji around 1.693, without breaking the peak at 1.700.
More good news will follow today. UK Confidence is up this morning. In the afternoon, we have Halifax HPI, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. News released at 1430hrs SGT. Then at 1630hrs SGT UK Services PMI.
In the evening, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 2015hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
The expected results is better than the forecast, indicating and supporting the fact that the economy has recovered. If so, these will give support for the pound to gain breakout at 1.700.
On the daily chart CCI is very overbought, suggesting a possible consolidation. Support is strong at 1.682 and 1.6705 region. Unlikely for it to reach there today. Possible will be retracement using Fib retracement to 1.685(50%) and 1.682(68%) from peak of 1.7004.
Of course, resistance is at 1.702 and 1.75 (the mid point towards 1.82).
Trend: up
How to trade then? 1.693 has been the mid point for yesterday doji formation. We can trade rebound, given that the possibility of a up trend is high.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
4 Aug 2009
GU Analysis:
Wow, breakout of 1.67 and ended almost 1.7!
The reasons were due to better than expected results in both the UK Manufacturing PMI (hitting for the first time above 50%) and better US Construction spending (from -ve to +ve), better US Cars sales. The last piece od news trigger the pound during the US morning to hit peaks after new peaks, only to settle after noon trading.
The more than good sentiments will continue. S&P and DOW rallied. This monring Asian market will rally too.
In the afternoon, UK will release Construction PMI at 1630hrs SGT and a series of US news at 2030hrs SGT. In particular, Core PCE Price Index. But the critical one is at 2200hrs SGT on US Pending Homes Sales.
Signs of manufacturing has recovered, confidence is back, housing will be next in line then unemployment. These are indicators that the economy is getting on track.
So how high can pound go, given so many better than expected good news? Support is now at 1.67. Immediate resistance is at 1.69-1.702 the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Looking at the hour chart, pound may did a retracement then swing back towards 1.7 and beyond. Retracement level using Fib from 1.69883 and 1.6697, we have 1.6920, 1.6877 (EMA21), 1.6842 then 1.6808 (EMA55).
CCI looked overbought, indicating a retracement to take place.
Trend: Up given the good news. Expect retracement and some consolidation at Fib Retrecement level.
Wow, breakout of 1.67 and ended almost 1.7!
The reasons were due to better than expected results in both the UK Manufacturing PMI (hitting for the first time above 50%) and better US Construction spending (from -ve to +ve), better US Cars sales. The last piece od news trigger the pound during the US morning to hit peaks after new peaks, only to settle after noon trading.
The more than good sentiments will continue. S&P and DOW rallied. This monring Asian market will rally too.
In the afternoon, UK will release Construction PMI at 1630hrs SGT and a series of US news at 2030hrs SGT. In particular, Core PCE Price Index. But the critical one is at 2200hrs SGT on US Pending Homes Sales.
Signs of manufacturing has recovered, confidence is back, housing will be next in line then unemployment. These are indicators that the economy is getting on track.
So how high can pound go, given so many better than expected good news? Support is now at 1.67. Immediate resistance is at 1.69-1.702 the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Looking at the hour chart, pound may did a retracement then swing back towards 1.7 and beyond. Retracement level using Fib from 1.69883 and 1.6697, we have 1.6920, 1.6877 (EMA21), 1.6842 then 1.6808 (EMA55).
CCI looked overbought, indicating a retracement to take place.
Trend: Up given the good news. Expect retracement and some consolidation at Fib Retrecement level.
Friday, July 31, 2009
31 July 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The Stocks market rally again.
Pound is kept withing range of 1.655 and 1.660, failing again to break high. On the down side, it is supported strong by daily EMA21 at 1.640/1.634
News from www.investica.co.uk says that result may not be as expected and spur a selling of EUR/USD
From www.bloomberg.com, economy may show recovery from GDP results.
According to www.forexcrunch.com the result from GfK Consumer Confidence this morning has shown that the confidence has dropped (actual result).
There is no news this afternoon that may affect the pound, so it is all technical. The GfK confidence result this morning may weaken the pound till the news for US GDP at 2030hrsSGT.
Based on technical, pound is strongly resisted at 1.660 (see daily chart). It is also supported by EMA21 (see daily chart) now at 1.640
If the sentiments by GfK confidence is bad, lets observe the morning market. From the hour chart, we see no movement yet. But clearly during the night, the pound hovers between 1.653 and 1.647. Going lower see that pound is resisted by EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 at around 1.6440 and that form the first level of support, following that we see support at the low of 30July 0700 candle at 1.6340.
General trend is from CCI which show a weak up movement. Meaning it has weakness for a potential reversal.
Trend: Not clear in the afternoon unless GfK triggered strong movement else direction should be clearer until US market for GDP news.
Trading Breakout Up
One way to trade is to assume a breakout during the afternoon trading hours, but this is risky because of GfK confidence news. Placing a long at 1.653 is good, but at 1.660 we will faced the strong day resistance. Sl should be at either 1.6440 or 1.6340. This gives little support as CCI does not strongly confirm the movement.
Trading Breakout Down
To have a good break out, pound must clear the daily EMA21 at 1.640. This is good from the 1 hour chart, that show the clearance from the EMA100 and EMA200 from the 1 hour chart. There is no news that currently support the up movement of the pound. TP will be good at 1.634 or at daily EMA55 at 1.6268., SL at 1.652.
Trade Rebound Down
Assuming strong resistance at daily resistance line at 1.660. We can placed a short at 1.656, TP at EMA21 at 1.640, SL at 1.663. What support this trade is that GfK triggered a morning and afternoon spike, but by GDP news, it retraces.
Trade Rebound Up
Again GfK bring the pound down and retrace to 1.64 and 1.634 region and good GDP news rebound the pound up. Long at 1.635, TP at 1.6440( 1hour EMA200), SL at 1.628 (daily EMA55 support).
So which choice?
Trading conservative, I will choose to trade Rebound Up. Long movement is not clearly evidence and it capped now at 1.655 and 1.660 region.
Trading Breakout Up is also good, but offer little profits again because of the resistance at 1.655 and 1.660.
Trading Rebound Down is no good, because pound look good going up with all the stocks market rallys.
Trading breakout Down need to clear daily EMA21 for clear direction, else it is a strong resistance.
The Stocks market rally again.
Pound is kept withing range of 1.655 and 1.660, failing again to break high. On the down side, it is supported strong by daily EMA21 at 1.640/1.634
News from www.investica.co.uk says that result may not be as expected and spur a selling of EUR/USD
From www.bloomberg.com, economy may show recovery from GDP results.
According to www.forexcrunch.com the result from GfK Consumer Confidence this morning has shown that the confidence has dropped (actual result).
There is no news this afternoon that may affect the pound, so it is all technical. The GfK confidence result this morning may weaken the pound till the news for US GDP at 2030hrsSGT.
Based on technical, pound is strongly resisted at 1.660 (see daily chart). It is also supported by EMA21 (see daily chart) now at 1.640
If the sentiments by GfK confidence is bad, lets observe the morning market. From the hour chart, we see no movement yet. But clearly during the night, the pound hovers between 1.653 and 1.647. Going lower see that pound is resisted by EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 at around 1.6440 and that form the first level of support, following that we see support at the low of 30July 0700 candle at 1.6340.
General trend is from CCI which show a weak up movement. Meaning it has weakness for a potential reversal.
Trend: Not clear in the afternoon unless GfK triggered strong movement else direction should be clearer until US market for GDP news.
Trading Breakout Up
One way to trade is to assume a breakout during the afternoon trading hours, but this is risky because of GfK confidence news. Placing a long at 1.653 is good, but at 1.660 we will faced the strong day resistance. Sl should be at either 1.6440 or 1.6340. This gives little support as CCI does not strongly confirm the movement.
Trading Breakout Down
To have a good break out, pound must clear the daily EMA21 at 1.640. This is good from the 1 hour chart, that show the clearance from the EMA100 and EMA200 from the 1 hour chart. There is no news that currently support the up movement of the pound. TP will be good at 1.634 or at daily EMA55 at 1.6268., SL at 1.652.
Trade Rebound Down
Assuming strong resistance at daily resistance line at 1.660. We can placed a short at 1.656, TP at EMA21 at 1.640, SL at 1.663. What support this trade is that GfK triggered a morning and afternoon spike, but by GDP news, it retraces.
Trade Rebound Up
Again GfK bring the pound down and retrace to 1.64 and 1.634 region and good GDP news rebound the pound up. Long at 1.635, TP at 1.6440( 1hour EMA200), SL at 1.628 (daily EMA55 support).
So which choice?
Trading conservative, I will choose to trade Rebound Up. Long movement is not clearly evidence and it capped now at 1.655 and 1.660 region.
Trading Breakout Up is also good, but offer little profits again because of the resistance at 1.655 and 1.660.
Trading Rebound Down is no good, because pound look good going up with all the stocks market rallys.
Trading breakout Down need to clear daily EMA21 for clear direction, else it is a strong resistance.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
30 July 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
1200hrs SGT
The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.
Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.
But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.
GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.
WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.
Resistance is at 1.648.
Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.
1200hrs SGT
The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.
Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.
But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.
GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.
WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.
Resistance is at 1.648.
Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
29 July 2009
GU analysis:
The rally for the last weeks in the equity market has come to a slow down, after achieving high for 2009.
The pound hit 1.6557, but began to retrace at 1600hrs SGT all the way to 1.639. All the news were released only after 1800hrs SGT. The US consumer was out at 2200hrs SGT was worst off than expected, but did not pull the pound further.
Toady at 1630hrs SGT, UK Net lending to Individual will give another view of the recovery in the banking and business sector. The numbers is expected to raise, indicating that consumers are ready to borrow.
Likewise at 2030hrs SGT, US Durable Goods will give indication of a recovery by a better than expected results. More orders of mechinery shows the road to recovery.
The technicals look tricky. Cable is constraint within 1.652 and 1.64. It can break in both direction, giving the fact that the price has been sqeezing in this range for more than a week.
CCI has showed sign of consoldiating down. Support at EMA21 daily is at 1.638, while EMA55 which is next is at 1.6245.
Resistance is at 1.652 then 1.663.
Trend: Down. The news release may affect the movement, but general sentiment is down based on CCI.
The rally for the last weeks in the equity market has come to a slow down, after achieving high for 2009.
The pound hit 1.6557, but began to retrace at 1600hrs SGT all the way to 1.639. All the news were released only after 1800hrs SGT. The US consumer was out at 2200hrs SGT was worst off than expected, but did not pull the pound further.
Toady at 1630hrs SGT, UK Net lending to Individual will give another view of the recovery in the banking and business sector. The numbers is expected to raise, indicating that consumers are ready to borrow.
Likewise at 2030hrs SGT, US Durable Goods will give indication of a recovery by a better than expected results. More orders of mechinery shows the road to recovery.
The technicals look tricky. Cable is constraint within 1.652 and 1.64. It can break in both direction, giving the fact that the price has been sqeezing in this range for more than a week.
CCI has showed sign of consoldiating down. Support at EMA21 daily is at 1.638, while EMA55 which is next is at 1.6245.
Resistance is at 1.652 then 1.663.
Trend: Down. The news release may affect the movement, but general sentiment is down based on CCI.
Monday, July 27, 2009
27 July 2009
GU Analysis (1600 SGT)
The stock market did a rally with the Dow staying above 9000 on Friday closing. Asian market was almost blue, with the European market following likewise.
The first piece of news this week that could affect the pound will be US New Home Sales at 2200hrs SGT.
From the technical side, Pound is still supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, giving good support at 1.6395.
It did a morning rally towards 1.652 and now currently doing a retracement. From the 1 hour chart it did a 50% Fib retracement to 1.6453. The next level is at 1.6437. Support at EMA200 on the 1 hour chart is at 1.6428.
Looking at the trend, as long as the EMA21 support is not breech, pound has the potential to go higher. Its sister pair EUR/USD is also hitting 1.4250.
Resistance at 1.652, then 1.659
Trend: Up, provide, EMA21 at 1.64 is not broken.
The stock market did a rally with the Dow staying above 9000 on Friday closing. Asian market was almost blue, with the European market following likewise.
The first piece of news this week that could affect the pound will be US New Home Sales at 2200hrs SGT.
From the technical side, Pound is still supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, giving good support at 1.6395.
It did a morning rally towards 1.652 and now currently doing a retracement. From the 1 hour chart it did a 50% Fib retracement to 1.6453. The next level is at 1.6437. Support at EMA200 on the 1 hour chart is at 1.6428.
Looking at the trend, as long as the EMA21 support is not breech, pound has the potential to go higher. Its sister pair EUR/USD is also hitting 1.4250.
Resistance at 1.652, then 1.659
Trend: Up, provide, EMA21 at 1.64 is not broken.
Friday, July 24, 2009
24 July 2009
GU analysis:
Both Dow Jones and S&P500 continue their rally with better than expected earnings. This lead to a continued weakness in USD and YEN.
The pound began its climb with the better than expected results of its retail sales. It further took advantage during US market with better homes sales (jumping 3.6%) and the rally in the equity market. It hit day high of 1.6586.
Today we have one very important news UK GDP released at 1630SGT. The most recent indicators have pointed UK with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement. However, Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the GDP report would almost certainly be negative.
From the daily chart, sterling did a double top formation. The 1 hour chart showed a dispersion into EMA21. From the 30min chart, it has a head and shoulder formation. From its high yesterday, sterling has retraced below from where it has broken out at 1.652, suggesting that 1.652 failed to form a support for sterling to climb higher.
Support is at 1.638, which happen to be EMA200 for the 1 hour chart and the EMA21 for the daily chart. This will be one critical support before breking lower to 1.620.
The only positive technical is that CCI has not reversed. Resistance is at 1.663, provided it clears yester high at 1.658.
Trend: down, unless supported by 1.638
Both Dow Jones and S&P500 continue their rally with better than expected earnings. This lead to a continued weakness in USD and YEN.
The pound began its climb with the better than expected results of its retail sales. It further took advantage during US market with better homes sales (jumping 3.6%) and the rally in the equity market. It hit day high of 1.6586.
Today we have one very important news UK GDP released at 1630SGT. The most recent indicators have pointed UK with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement. However, Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the GDP report would almost certainly be negative.
From the daily chart, sterling did a double top formation. The 1 hour chart showed a dispersion into EMA21. From the 30min chart, it has a head and shoulder formation. From its high yesterday, sterling has retraced below from where it has broken out at 1.652, suggesting that 1.652 failed to form a support for sterling to climb higher.
Support is at 1.638, which happen to be EMA200 for the 1 hour chart and the EMA21 for the daily chart. This will be one critical support before breking lower to 1.620.
The only positive technical is that CCI has not reversed. Resistance is at 1.663, provided it clears yester high at 1.658.
Trend: down, unless supported by 1.638
Thursday, July 23, 2009
23 July 2009
GBPUSD Analysis:
The stock market is still the barometer for risk.
When the U.S. stock market does well, forex traders seem more willing to take riskier, higher-yielding trades---which tends to send the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) lower.
When the U.S. stock market does poorly, forex traders seem more likely to take safer, lower-yielding trades---which tends to send the USD and the JPY higher.
In both Asis and Europe market, the dollar was strengthening all day. It remained firm throughout and during the testimony of Bernanke before the Financial Services committee.
Once Ben’s testimony concluded, the Dollar weakened. DOW also surged in early trading, which helped to erase almost all of the Dollar’s gains.
The pound retraced after reaching high of 1.6505.
Today, the concerned is whether the UK economic recovery is stalling and that the U.K. doesn’t have enough money to provide anymore stimulus without blowing out the budget. It will be a wait and see situation until the preliminary Second Quarter GDP number is released on Friday.
At the technical side, 1.652 is a strong resistance, else it would render the pound to range between 1.652 and 1.632.
Breaking 1.652 will bring the pound to the next high at 1.663.
Breaking 1.632 will bring the pound lower to 1.620.
But my expectation for today is that pound will attempt 1.652 because of the Retatil Sales report at 1630SGT. It fell last time by 0.6%, and is predicted to rise by 0.4%.
At 2200SGT, the US will release its Existing Homes Sales.
Trend: ??
The stock market is still the barometer for risk.
When the U.S. stock market does well, forex traders seem more willing to take riskier, higher-yielding trades---which tends to send the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) lower.
When the U.S. stock market does poorly, forex traders seem more likely to take safer, lower-yielding trades---which tends to send the USD and the JPY higher.
In both Asis and Europe market, the dollar was strengthening all day. It remained firm throughout and during the testimony of Bernanke before the Financial Services committee.
Once Ben’s testimony concluded, the Dollar weakened. DOW also surged in early trading, which helped to erase almost all of the Dollar’s gains.
The pound retraced after reaching high of 1.6505.
Today, the concerned is whether the UK economic recovery is stalling and that the U.K. doesn’t have enough money to provide anymore stimulus without blowing out the budget. It will be a wait and see situation until the preliminary Second Quarter GDP number is released on Friday.
At the technical side, 1.652 is a strong resistance, else it would render the pound to range between 1.652 and 1.632.
Breaking 1.652 will bring the pound to the next high at 1.663.
Breaking 1.632 will bring the pound lower to 1.620.
But my expectation for today is that pound will attempt 1.652 because of the Retatil Sales report at 1630SGT. It fell last time by 0.6%, and is predicted to rise by 0.4%.
At 2200SGT, the US will release its Existing Homes Sales.
Trend: ??
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
22 July 2009
GU Analysis:
It seems that the flight to safety is back. Both the dollar and the yen strengthen against the majors.
Last night Federal Reserve chairman speech that the danger of a weak economy is still lurking around. Employment will be going to be weak through 2011 and that will minus off consumer confidence. Stocks raises though the better than expected news from Apple, but not AMD and Caterpillar. The better forecast by Caterpillar boost the demand for crude and this will take advantage of a weaker dollar.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry publishes this monthly indicator on Wednesday at 1800SGT. This indicator has brought bad news since the beginning of the year. It has always missed the target, and also remained negative (showing contraction) for over a year. Current hopes aren’t so good for the British manufacturing sector - the index is expected to improve only slightly - from -51 to -46. Only a very good surprise will shake the Pound after the release
Sterling is down from 1.65 and back to support at EMA200 on the hour chart at 1.64. The daily support at EMA21 is at 1.634 and is not broken yet.
Resistance is at 1.65 then 1.657. Support lies at 1.637 then 1.632.
Trend: Down
It seems that the flight to safety is back. Both the dollar and the yen strengthen against the majors.
Last night Federal Reserve chairman speech that the danger of a weak economy is still lurking around. Employment will be going to be weak through 2011 and that will minus off consumer confidence. Stocks raises though the better than expected news from Apple, but not AMD and Caterpillar. The better forecast by Caterpillar boost the demand for crude and this will take advantage of a weaker dollar.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry publishes this monthly indicator on Wednesday at 1800SGT. This indicator has brought bad news since the beginning of the year. It has always missed the target, and also remained negative (showing contraction) for over a year. Current hopes aren’t so good for the British manufacturing sector - the index is expected to improve only slightly - from -51 to -46. Only a very good surprise will shake the Pound after the release
Sterling is down from 1.65 and back to support at EMA200 on the hour chart at 1.64. The daily support at EMA21 is at 1.634 and is not broken yet.
Resistance is at 1.65 then 1.657. Support lies at 1.637 then 1.632.
Trend: Down
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
21 July 2009
GU Analysis:
GBPUSD did a breakout of 1.64 yesterday, staying off and rebound off the daily EMA21. It hit high of 1.6557.
The Dow rally again for the 6th week based on good news from CIT, plus better than expected earnings report. Also, the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent in June, more than the 0.4 percent forecast. It was the third straight month of gains, showing sign of bottoming out.
Today and this week there will be more earnings report from Apple, AMD, Texas Instrument, Mircosoft, Toyota etc. These better than expected result will give Dow a further boost and subsequently the abandament of USD.
Looking at the technical chart in 1 hour, there will be some retracement from 1.6557. The support is at 1.6467/1.6446 region. The next level is 1.632.
Resistance is at 1.6633, then 1.675.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement and beware of EMA21 daily support.
GBPUSD did a breakout of 1.64 yesterday, staying off and rebound off the daily EMA21. It hit high of 1.6557.
The Dow rally again for the 6th week based on good news from CIT, plus better than expected earnings report. Also, the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent in June, more than the 0.4 percent forecast. It was the third straight month of gains, showing sign of bottoming out.
Today and this week there will be more earnings report from Apple, AMD, Texas Instrument, Mircosoft, Toyota etc. These better than expected result will give Dow a further boost and subsequently the abandament of USD.
Looking at the technical chart in 1 hour, there will be some retracement from 1.6557. The support is at 1.6467/1.6446 region. The next level is 1.632.
Resistance is at 1.6633, then 1.675.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement and beware of EMA21 daily support.
Monday, July 20, 2009
20 July 2009
GU Analysis:
Looking at the technical chart for last week, cable has been supported by EMA21 at 1.632. Direction is still not clear from the technical point of view. CCI is up, but is captured in the over bought position, meaning that it can reverse down or it could run higher.
Today, at 1630SGT, UK Prelim M4 Money Supply. This may not have a strong impact on the pound, but nevertheless show sign of the economy recovery out of the credit crunch - are the banks lending as much again?
More importantly is the release of the minutes from the Bank of England's July 9 meeting at 1630 SGT on Wednesday and the 1630 SGT advanced reading of Q2 GDP for the UK on Thursday. Both will show further sign of how UK economy is really performing.
As such, it is again all technical for today. Morning saw the attempt to break 1.64, but failed. At the 1 hour chart, all the EMAs are concentrated at around 1.634 and 1.632. This found a good support.
Resistance is at 1.64, then 1.648, then 1.656.
Support is at 1.632, 1.625, then 1.618.
Trend: up, provided support retained at 1.632
Looking at the technical chart for last week, cable has been supported by EMA21 at 1.632. Direction is still not clear from the technical point of view. CCI is up, but is captured in the over bought position, meaning that it can reverse down or it could run higher.
Today, at 1630SGT, UK Prelim M4 Money Supply. This may not have a strong impact on the pound, but nevertheless show sign of the economy recovery out of the credit crunch - are the banks lending as much again?
More importantly is the release of the minutes from the Bank of England's July 9 meeting at 1630 SGT on Wednesday and the 1630 SGT advanced reading of Q2 GDP for the UK on Thursday. Both will show further sign of how UK economy is really performing.
As such, it is again all technical for today. Morning saw the attempt to break 1.64, but failed. At the 1 hour chart, all the EMAs are concentrated at around 1.634 and 1.632. This found a good support.
Resistance is at 1.64, then 1.648, then 1.656.
Support is at 1.632, 1.625, then 1.618.
Trend: up, provided support retained at 1.632
Thursday, July 16, 2009
16 July 2009
GU Analysis
All the better than expected UK and US resuslts had sent market sentiments on a high note. The FSTE rose 2.5%, more than 100 points, while the DOW rose 3% gaining more than 250 points.
GU broke the 1.632 barrier and hit the peak of 1.646 yesterday. In terms of support, the 1-hour chart is supported at the strong EMA200. The pound did a retracement this morning, back to 1.638.
Today there is no major news from the UK. So it is all technical in the Europe market. Focus will be on the US unemployment claims.
From the technical point of view, support is at EMA200 on the daily chart at 1.632. A rebound may help the pound to hit immediate target of 1.65. On the down side if the support is broken, the next support is at 1.62.
Trend: up, provided support is maintained at 1.632.
All the better than expected UK and US resuslts had sent market sentiments on a high note. The FSTE rose 2.5%, more than 100 points, while the DOW rose 3% gaining more than 250 points.
GU broke the 1.632 barrier and hit the peak of 1.646 yesterday. In terms of support, the 1-hour chart is supported at the strong EMA200. The pound did a retracement this morning, back to 1.638.
Today there is no major news from the UK. So it is all technical in the Europe market. Focus will be on the US unemployment claims.
From the technical point of view, support is at EMA200 on the daily chart at 1.632. A rebound may help the pound to hit immediate target of 1.65. On the down side if the support is broken, the next support is at 1.62.
Trend: up, provided support is maintained at 1.632.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
14 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
For most of the day, the cable was hitting the down hill. The reversal took place just before the US opening with no news in the forecast..
This scenario changed when analyst Meredith Whitney upgraded her recommendation in the Goldman Sachs Group from neutral to buy and made other bullish comments regarding the banking sector. Her comments were the surprise event that equity and commodity markets were looking for given the recent downtrend and oversold status. This subsequent lead to a spike in the DOW and followed through the stocks and equity market. The shift in sentiment changed from bullish Dollar to bearish Dollar.
This morning, the UK market housing survey added another fuel for the cable to climb higher.
Today, the UK will be reporting CPI at 1630 SGT. Inflation looks set to fall below the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost two years in June. If so, it may bring the cable higher.
At the US opening, retail news at 2030hrs may report numbers that the economy is still hurting. If so, this may put a stop for the upward momentum.
Technically, the pound is still constraints within 1.632, then 1.641. CCI look good for a upward trend, but unless the pound strong break through 1.641, then resistance will become support.
In the meanwhile, support is at 1.612, then 1.605.
Trend: Up, but limited by 1.641.
For most of the day, the cable was hitting the down hill. The reversal took place just before the US opening with no news in the forecast..
This scenario changed when analyst Meredith Whitney upgraded her recommendation in the Goldman Sachs Group from neutral to buy and made other bullish comments regarding the banking sector. Her comments were the surprise event that equity and commodity markets were looking for given the recent downtrend and oversold status. This subsequent lead to a spike in the DOW and followed through the stocks and equity market. The shift in sentiment changed from bullish Dollar to bearish Dollar.
This morning, the UK market housing survey added another fuel for the cable to climb higher.
Today, the UK will be reporting CPI at 1630 SGT. Inflation looks set to fall below the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost two years in June. If so, it may bring the cable higher.
At the US opening, retail news at 2030hrs may report numbers that the economy is still hurting. If so, this may put a stop for the upward momentum.
Technically, the pound is still constraints within 1.632, then 1.641. CCI look good for a upward trend, but unless the pound strong break through 1.641, then resistance will become support.
In the meanwhile, support is at 1.612, then 1.605.
Trend: Up, but limited by 1.641.
Monday, July 13, 2009
13 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
With no major news in the lineup, it will be all technicals.
The squeeze at the daily chart has close up with EMA21 and EMA55 limiting at 1.632 and 1.608.
There are again no clear direction from the CCI, swing from a up to a down.
First support is at 1.614 for a potential rebound to 1.632. If breakout happen, support is at 1.598. On the other side, resistance is at 1.625, followed by 1.632, then 1.6405.
Trend: ?
With no major news in the lineup, it will be all technicals.
The squeeze at the daily chart has close up with EMA21 and EMA55 limiting at 1.632 and 1.608.
There are again no clear direction from the CCI, swing from a up to a down.
First support is at 1.614 for a potential rebound to 1.632. If breakout happen, support is at 1.598. On the other side, resistance is at 1.625, followed by 1.632, then 1.6405.
Trend: ?
Thursday, July 09, 2009
9 July 2009
GU Analysis:
U.K. house prices unexpectedly fell in June, a sign Britain has yet to shake off the property slump as unemployment increases, a report by Halifax showed. Home values declined 0.5 percent to an average of 157,713 pounds ($253,400), after jumping 2.6 percent in the previous month, the division of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said in a statement today.
In the US, there was no mjor news. Stocks finished mostly lower after zigzagging for much of the day Wednesday. A mixed outlook on the economy from the International Monetary Fund and falling commodity prices added to the downbeat mood.
GU form a good doji ranging from 1.6138 and 1.5984, strongly supported at EMA55 on the daily chart.
Today, at 1700SGT, The Bank of England is expected to ask the British government for the authority to pump another 25 billion pounds ($40 billion) into the financial system at the end of its two-day monthly meeting Thursday. The central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged meanwhile at a record low 0.5 per cent.
The effect shows that UK ecnonomy is still recovering and if so, may bring the pound lower.
On the support we, have the next big one at 1.577. But to reach this line today may not be quite possible. Given half way mark, it will be 1.59.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.628, clearing this may pave way for Gu to go higher.
Trend: down.
U.K. house prices unexpectedly fell in June, a sign Britain has yet to shake off the property slump as unemployment increases, a report by Halifax showed. Home values declined 0.5 percent to an average of 157,713 pounds ($253,400), after jumping 2.6 percent in the previous month, the division of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said in a statement today.
In the US, there was no mjor news. Stocks finished mostly lower after zigzagging for much of the day Wednesday. A mixed outlook on the economy from the International Monetary Fund and falling commodity prices added to the downbeat mood.
GU form a good doji ranging from 1.6138 and 1.5984, strongly supported at EMA55 on the daily chart.
Today, at 1700SGT, The Bank of England is expected to ask the British government for the authority to pump another 25 billion pounds ($40 billion) into the financial system at the end of its two-day monthly meeting Thursday. The central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged meanwhile at a record low 0.5 per cent.
The effect shows that UK ecnonomy is still recovering and if so, may bring the pound lower.
On the support we, have the next big one at 1.577. But to reach this line today may not be quite possible. Given half way mark, it will be 1.59.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.628, clearing this may pave way for Gu to go higher.
Trend: down.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
8 Jul 2009
GU Analysis
Sterling fell against the dollar for a fourth day in its longest stretch of declines since April after the British Chambers of Commerce recommended that the Bank of England expand its asset-purchase program to revive the economy.
This morning, however, the National Consumer Confidence rose above 50points.
Today the G8 will meet, as well as UK Halifax HPI at 1600SGT.
Pound fell overnight and landed at support at 1.611, which is also the daily EMA55. There are still no sign of reversal from CCI. This suggest the possibility for GU to land lower at EMA100/ EMA200 at 1.576. Alternatively, a rebound is possible to regain level at 1.632 (EMA21).
Trend: Up, unless support broke at 1.60.
Sterling fell against the dollar for a fourth day in its longest stretch of declines since April after the British Chambers of Commerce recommended that the Bank of England expand its asset-purchase program to revive the economy.
This morning, however, the National Consumer Confidence rose above 50points.
Today the G8 will meet, as well as UK Halifax HPI at 1600SGT.
Pound fell overnight and landed at support at 1.611, which is also the daily EMA55. There are still no sign of reversal from CCI. This suggest the possibility for GU to land lower at EMA100/ EMA200 at 1.576. Alternatively, a rebound is possible to regain level at 1.632 (EMA21).
Trend: Up, unless support broke at 1.60.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
7 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The day was actually quiet from a fundamental perspective, with only the US ISM non-manufacturing was released at 2200SGT and the index rose more than anticipated to 47.0 in June from 44.0. ISM index held below 50 - the point of neutrality for the index - for the ninth straight month, signaling a continued contraction, though at a slower pace.
GU went down to hit EMA21 at 1.61 during the US trade session. However, a bounce in stocks that pushed the DOW and S&P 500 into positive territory by the market close. GU rebound to 1.627 this morning and regain much losses.
Today, output by industrial producers in the UK is forecasted to have risen for the second straight month in May at a rate of 0.2 percent, which may help to push the annual rate of growth up to -11.3 percent from -12.3 percent. Other measures of activity in the sector, such as manufacturing PMI, have risen steadily between March and June, but since the index has held below 50 since May 2008, the results simply suggest that the contraction in the sector has slowed, rather than abated completely. As a result, there are some downside risks for this upcoming release of industrial production, and a surprise month-over-month decline could weigh on the British pound upon release. The news will be released at 1630SGT.
Based on the first leg down from 1.6745 to 1.6095, a fib 50% retracement will be to 1.64175. That incidentally is the rebound up above the EMA21 on the daily chart. Therefore this 1.642 will be a good resistance, before the next round of direction decision.
Support still at EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.612.
Trend:Up due to retracement, but a possible swing towards EMA21 is also possible.
The day was actually quiet from a fundamental perspective, with only the US ISM non-manufacturing was released at 2200SGT and the index rose more than anticipated to 47.0 in June from 44.0. ISM index held below 50 - the point of neutrality for the index - for the ninth straight month, signaling a continued contraction, though at a slower pace.
GU went down to hit EMA21 at 1.61 during the US trade session. However, a bounce in stocks that pushed the DOW and S&P 500 into positive territory by the market close. GU rebound to 1.627 this morning and regain much losses.
Today, output by industrial producers in the UK is forecasted to have risen for the second straight month in May at a rate of 0.2 percent, which may help to push the annual rate of growth up to -11.3 percent from -12.3 percent. Other measures of activity in the sector, such as manufacturing PMI, have risen steadily between March and June, but since the index has held below 50 since May 2008, the results simply suggest that the contraction in the sector has slowed, rather than abated completely. As a result, there are some downside risks for this upcoming release of industrial production, and a surprise month-over-month decline could weigh on the British pound upon release. The news will be released at 1630SGT.
Based on the first leg down from 1.6745 to 1.6095, a fib 50% retracement will be to 1.64175. That incidentally is the rebound up above the EMA21 on the daily chart. Therefore this 1.642 will be a good resistance, before the next round of direction decision.
Support still at EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.612.
Trend:Up due to retracement, but a possible swing towards EMA21 is also possible.
Monday, July 06, 2009
6 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The pound posted its first weekly decline against the dollar in a month after worse-than-expected reports on U.K. services and gross domestic product signaled the economic recovery may be faltering.
Manufacturing, consumer confidence and inflation data this week will provide insights into the state of the U.K. economy and the scope of a recovery. Slower output growth and declining prices will add to the bearish outlook that is beginning to form, while a increase in consume confidence will give hope that a return of domestic growth is around the corner. Additionally, the Visible Trade Balance report will show us that state of demand for British goods.
There is no major UK news today and that left only the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 2200 SGT. Looking ahead to Monday, data may show that conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - improved somewhat in June as the Institute for Supply Management index is estimated to rise to 46.0 from 44.0. However, consumer confidence has shown emerging pessimism, primarily on the economic outlook, as the Conference Board’s measure surprisingly fell to 49.3 in June from 54.8. Since risk trends have proven to be the greater driver of price action in the forex markets, a weaker than expected result could trigger flight-to-quality and thus, gains for the US dollar.
From the technical point of view, at the daily chart, pound has broke below the daily EMA21. If the direction does not reverse, it would gain support at EMA55 at 1.61. Resistance is at 1.6395.
Trend: Down, watch out for PMI news and that may set direction for the pound.
The pound posted its first weekly decline against the dollar in a month after worse-than-expected reports on U.K. services and gross domestic product signaled the economic recovery may be faltering.
Manufacturing, consumer confidence and inflation data this week will provide insights into the state of the U.K. economy and the scope of a recovery. Slower output growth and declining prices will add to the bearish outlook that is beginning to form, while a increase in consume confidence will give hope that a return of domestic growth is around the corner. Additionally, the Visible Trade Balance report will show us that state of demand for British goods.
There is no major UK news today and that left only the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 2200 SGT. Looking ahead to Monday, data may show that conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - improved somewhat in June as the Institute for Supply Management index is estimated to rise to 46.0 from 44.0. However, consumer confidence has shown emerging pessimism, primarily on the economic outlook, as the Conference Board’s measure surprisingly fell to 49.3 in June from 54.8. Since risk trends have proven to be the greater driver of price action in the forex markets, a weaker than expected result could trigger flight-to-quality and thus, gains for the US dollar.
From the technical point of view, at the daily chart, pound has broke below the daily EMA21. If the direction does not reverse, it would gain support at EMA55 at 1.61. Resistance is at 1.6395.
Trend: Down, watch out for PMI news and that may set direction for the pound.
Friday, July 03, 2009
3 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
Clear indications from this morning’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that the pace of job losses had accelerated, rather than slowed, was the driver of price action for the markets. Dollar rallied against a basket of currencies except Japanese yen after the key monthly U.S. employment report showed employers shed 467,000 jobs in June, more than consensus forecast of 363,000 cut, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, the highest since 1983, renewing widespread concerns over the pace of the economic recovery’s pace.DOW tumbled more than 200 points and that may triggered a round of flight to safety on the dollars and the yen.
Today will be a rest day in US (Independence Day). So the only major new will be in the UK at 1630 SGT on service PMI. Here, the purchasing managers show a more positive attitude in the survey. Services PMI surprised last month by jumping above the 50 line, hitting 51.7. Should this happen, the pound may rallied to curd yesterday weakness.
GU is now supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, bring the next support to 1.62. It is still hanging there with no clear direction of going down. But breaking the support at 1.60 will be a good indicator of a down trend. CCI is down but has no clear indication.
Resistance is at 1.65 and 1.662
Trend: Down, but may rebound at support at 1.62, keeping the pound in the trading range of 1.62 and 1.67
Clear indications from this morning’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that the pace of job losses had accelerated, rather than slowed, was the driver of price action for the markets. Dollar rallied against a basket of currencies except Japanese yen after the key monthly U.S. employment report showed employers shed 467,000 jobs in June, more than consensus forecast of 363,000 cut, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, the highest since 1983, renewing widespread concerns over the pace of the economic recovery’s pace.DOW tumbled more than 200 points and that may triggered a round of flight to safety on the dollars and the yen.
Today will be a rest day in US (Independence Day). So the only major new will be in the UK at 1630 SGT on service PMI. Here, the purchasing managers show a more positive attitude in the survey. Services PMI surprised last month by jumping above the 50 line, hitting 51.7. Should this happen, the pound may rallied to curd yesterday weakness.
GU is now supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, bring the next support to 1.62. It is still hanging there with no clear direction of going down. But breaking the support at 1.60 will be a good indicator of a down trend. CCI is down but has no clear indication.
Resistance is at 1.65 and 1.662
Trend: Down, but may rebound at support at 1.62, keeping the pound in the trading range of 1.62 and 1.67
Thursday, July 02, 2009
2 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The economic calendar had a few important releases out of UK, with PMI coming out better than expected and also the very important ADP report out of US which came out worse than estimated.
Today, Non-Farm Payrolls, the king of forex cannot be avoided. This super-major American figure shakes the whole world. After a surprise last time, when “only” 345K jobs were lost, NFP is predicted to take one step backwords and show a fall of 375K jobs. Strong movements are expected also in the British pound. At 20:30 SGT.
Pound still hovers around 1.655 and 1.64, in between the EMA200 line on the 1 hour chart. This suggest any break in this region goes to the resistance at 1.67 and support at 1.62.
1.64 looked like a strong support at EMA21 on the daily chart. It means that unlikely for pound to break, but if it does so, it could go much lower than 1.62 to 1.612.
Trend: up, ADP June non farm payrolls was reported at -473k versus a downwardly revised -485k in May. A reading of -393k was expected for the June ADP report. The ADP report suggests that Thursday's US nonfarm payroll report is likely to show little improvement. If that is so, then pound will continue to move up.
The economic calendar had a few important releases out of UK, with PMI coming out better than expected and also the very important ADP report out of US which came out worse than estimated.
Today, Non-Farm Payrolls, the king of forex cannot be avoided. This super-major American figure shakes the whole world. After a surprise last time, when “only” 345K jobs were lost, NFP is predicted to take one step backwords and show a fall of 375K jobs. Strong movements are expected also in the British pound. At 20:30 SGT.
Pound still hovers around 1.655 and 1.64, in between the EMA200 line on the 1 hour chart. This suggest any break in this region goes to the resistance at 1.67 and support at 1.62.
1.64 looked like a strong support at EMA21 on the daily chart. It means that unlikely for pound to break, but if it does so, it could go much lower than 1.62 to 1.612.
Trend: up, ADP June non farm payrolls was reported at -473k versus a downwardly revised -485k in May. A reading of -393k was expected for the June ADP report. The ADP report suggests that Thursday's US nonfarm payroll report is likely to show little improvement. If that is so, then pound will continue to move up.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
1 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The better than expected result in HPI pushed the pound to over 1.67, hitting high at 1.674 before the GDP and current supply hit back to negative ground to 1.642.
The US side provide no better stimulus for the pound to move lower, as U.S. stocks fell, limiting the biggest quarterly advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1998, after consumer confidence unexpectedly slid and delinquencies on the least-risky mortgages more than doubled.
Today at 1630 SGT, Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing Manager’s Index shows future expectations for the manufacturing sector. A figure below 50 means contraction. The figure has been below 50 for over a year, but has advanced in the last three months. Also now, it’s predicted to rise from 45.4 to 46.3. This will surely shake the Pound.
In the US, Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week. The jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 percent, the highest level in 26 years, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be the smallest since November 2008. A survey of purchasing managers may show manufacturing shrank at the mildest pace in 10 months.
Looking at the technicals, strong support is at 1.6405. Breaking this will bring it to 1.624.
From the 1 hour chart point, resistance is at 1.654, breaking this will bring it back to 1.67.
Trend: Up, but expect disruption at 1630hrs if the Manfacturing PMI turn sour.
The better than expected result in HPI pushed the pound to over 1.67, hitting high at 1.674 before the GDP and current supply hit back to negative ground to 1.642.
The US side provide no better stimulus for the pound to move lower, as U.S. stocks fell, limiting the biggest quarterly advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1998, after consumer confidence unexpectedly slid and delinquencies on the least-risky mortgages more than doubled.
Today at 1630 SGT, Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing Manager’s Index shows future expectations for the manufacturing sector. A figure below 50 means contraction. The figure has been below 50 for over a year, but has advanced in the last three months. Also now, it’s predicted to rise from 45.4 to 46.3. This will surely shake the Pound.
In the US, Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week. The jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 percent, the highest level in 26 years, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be the smallest since November 2008. A survey of purchasing managers may show manufacturing shrank at the mildest pace in 10 months.
Looking at the technicals, strong support is at 1.6405. Breaking this will bring it to 1.624.
From the 1 hour chart point, resistance is at 1.654, breaking this will bring it back to 1.67.
Trend: Up, but expect disruption at 1630hrs if the Manfacturing PMI turn sour.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
30 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
GU hit 1.60 this morning.
In the equity market, stocks coninute its confidence run despite no major US news.
Today at 0700 SGT, UK showed improve consumer confidence. Will the run continue in the afternoon? At 1400 SGT, the realease of HPI, after being delayed from last week. Although not the first house price index, this is an accurate one. The British real estate sector has skyrocketed during the good years, and plunged in this crisis, accelerating the recession. Any good result may aid pound to touch the 1.66 barrier and break it.
Follow this at 1630, UK GDP and current account, the major news that will set the direction for GU. Britain’s current account usually shows a deficit, and the first quarter of 2009 isn’t different. At least it’s expected to squeeze down, and this might help the Pound. The deficit is predicted to fall from 7.6 to 6.5 billion.
On the technical side, pound has inched higher towards the 1.66 barrier. Support is also higher at EMA21 on the daily chart at 1.6405.
Break 1.66 and pound will need to clear 1.67 for a very sure sign of up trend, to reach above 1.705. Break below 1.64, support is at 1.625
Trend: Up, but the major news must support the direction.
GU hit 1.60 this morning.
In the equity market, stocks coninute its confidence run despite no major US news.
Today at 0700 SGT, UK showed improve consumer confidence. Will the run continue in the afternoon? At 1400 SGT, the realease of HPI, after being delayed from last week. Although not the first house price index, this is an accurate one. The British real estate sector has skyrocketed during the good years, and plunged in this crisis, accelerating the recession. Any good result may aid pound to touch the 1.66 barrier and break it.
Follow this at 1630, UK GDP and current account, the major news that will set the direction for GU. Britain’s current account usually shows a deficit, and the first quarter of 2009 isn’t different. At least it’s expected to squeeze down, and this might help the Pound. The deficit is predicted to fall from 7.6 to 6.5 billion.
On the technical side, pound has inched higher towards the 1.66 barrier. Support is also higher at EMA21 on the daily chart at 1.6405.
Break 1.66 and pound will need to clear 1.67 for a very sure sign of up trend, to reach above 1.705. Break below 1.64, support is at 1.625
Trend: Up, but the major news must support the direction.
Monday, June 29, 2009
29 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
GU is still contain withing 1.66 and 1.62.
All the major news last week has fail to determine the direction of this pair.
Equity market is also not making head way in any direction.
Today UK major news at 1630hrs on Mortgage Approvals. This will reflect the perfromance of the bank and indicate whether the banks are lending. If the economy is recovering well, lending should increase.
In the Japan hour of trading, pound has been heading down from 1.652. It has rebounded at EMA200 on the 1-hr chart. This form the support at 1.645. Resistance is at 1.655.
Breaking 1.645 will permit the pound to reach support at 1.639 (EMA21 on the daily chart).
Trend: ? Beware of breakout and trade within range today. If out of 1.66 and 1.62, relinguish short and long position respectively.
GU is still contain withing 1.66 and 1.62.
All the major news last week has fail to determine the direction of this pair.
Equity market is also not making head way in any direction.
Today UK major news at 1630hrs on Mortgage Approvals. This will reflect the perfromance of the bank and indicate whether the banks are lending. If the economy is recovering well, lending should increase.
In the Japan hour of trading, pound has been heading down from 1.652. It has rebounded at EMA200 on the 1-hr chart. This form the support at 1.645. Resistance is at 1.655.
Breaking 1.645 will permit the pound to reach support at 1.639 (EMA21 on the daily chart).
Trend: ? Beware of breakout and trade within range today. If out of 1.66 and 1.62, relinguish short and long position respectively.
Friday, June 26, 2009
26 Jun 2009
GU Analysis
After a hit at 1.623, GU rebound strongly reacting strongly during US market. Now at 1.64.
DOW gave a 170 points gain, despite poor unemployment report, but better homebuilder and retailers report.
No major UK news. At 2030hrs SGT, US Consumer spending. It will probably rose in May for the first time in three months and home sales increased as Americans became more confident the recession will end this year.
Technically, pound is still trading within the band of 1.62 and 1.67. It has not breakout of this band yet. CCI looks down but has potential for reversal up.
Immediate support is at daily EMA21 at 1.634. Resistance is at 1.662
Trend: ? Up towards 1.66, and direction depends whether is break or rebound.
After a hit at 1.623, GU rebound strongly reacting strongly during US market. Now at 1.64.
DOW gave a 170 points gain, despite poor unemployment report, but better homebuilder and retailers report.
No major UK news. At 2030hrs SGT, US Consumer spending. It will probably rose in May for the first time in three months and home sales increased as Americans became more confident the recession will end this year.
Technically, pound is still trading within the band of 1.62 and 1.67. It has not breakout of this band yet. CCI looks down but has potential for reversal up.
Immediate support is at daily EMA21 at 1.634. Resistance is at 1.662
Trend: ? Up towards 1.66, and direction depends whether is break or rebound.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
25 Jun 2009
GU analysis:
In the UK, Retail sales fell for the second month running in the year to June, following April’s brief respite, the CBI said today (Wednesday). The decline, broadly in line with retailers’ expectations, was no worse than in May however, and less severe than falls recorded between July 2008 and March 2009.
While in the US, Purchase of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as builder discounts failed to keep pace with the foreclosure-driven slump in prices for resales. Sales decreased 0.6 percent to an annual pace of 342,000 after a revised 344,000 rate in April that was lower than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
The Federal Reserve refrained from increasing its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program, said the pace of economic contraction is slowing and predicted inflation will remain “subdued for some time.”
Overall, the GBPUSD was a doji, up and down, hitting high at 1.66, then fall to 1.636.
The outlook for today will still be uncertain, without any major push towards any direction.
The only major news today will be at 2030hrs SGT on US on unemplyment claims. But Obama had said that it will hit >10%.
On the technical side, the price movement is still clamp within resistance at 1.67 and support at daily EMA21 at 1.632.
Trend: ? As the squeeze tighten, expect a big breakout, but direction is currently not sure.
In the UK, Retail sales fell for the second month running in the year to June, following April’s brief respite, the CBI said today (Wednesday). The decline, broadly in line with retailers’ expectations, was no worse than in May however, and less severe than falls recorded between July 2008 and March 2009.
While in the US, Purchase of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as builder discounts failed to keep pace with the foreclosure-driven slump in prices for resales. Sales decreased 0.6 percent to an annual pace of 342,000 after a revised 344,000 rate in April that was lower than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
The Federal Reserve refrained from increasing its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program, said the pace of economic contraction is slowing and predicted inflation will remain “subdued for some time.”
Overall, the GBPUSD was a doji, up and down, hitting high at 1.66, then fall to 1.636.
The outlook for today will still be uncertain, without any major push towards any direction.
The only major news today will be at 2030hrs SGT on US on unemplyment claims. But Obama had said that it will hit >10%.
On the technical side, the price movement is still clamp within resistance at 1.67 and support at daily EMA21 at 1.632.
Trend: ? As the squeeze tighten, expect a big breakout, but direction is currently not sure.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
24 Jun 2009
GU analysis:
Pound hit low at 1.620, hitting EMA21 on the daily chart and rebound follow better than expected UK Mortgage Approvals.
It followed in the US, an increase in Housing Sales.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) publishes this figure on a monthly basis, and focuses on the change in sales volume. Last time, this important figure was very bad - at -17 points. This time, expectations are low. It’s expected to remain there. In past releases the Pound shook after this publication. Time 1800 SGT.
From the technical side, pound is still contain within 1.62 and 1.66.
It has form a wedge formation bounded by the trend line joining 3Jun, 11Jun and 19Jun and the EMA21.
Trend: ? Given the better news, pound should hit higher, but again, watch the support and resistance.
Pound hit low at 1.620, hitting EMA21 on the daily chart and rebound follow better than expected UK Mortgage Approvals.
It followed in the US, an increase in Housing Sales.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) publishes this figure on a monthly basis, and focuses on the change in sales volume. Last time, this important figure was very bad - at -17 points. This time, expectations are low. It’s expected to remain there. In past releases the Pound shook after this publication. Time 1800 SGT.
From the technical side, pound is still contain within 1.62 and 1.66.
It has form a wedge formation bounded by the trend line joining 3Jun, 11Jun and 19Jun and the EMA21.
Trend: ? Given the better news, pound should hit higher, but again, watch the support and resistance.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
23 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
Sweeping across Europe and then US, the equlity showed major drop. The DOW fell 200 points. The correlation between the GBPUSD pair and major global equity indices has pulled back to recent trade. The buck (USD) seems to be gaining on the back of poor economic estimates by the World Bank, which announced a 2.9% contraction in world economy
In UK, the HPI was reported -0.4% compared to last month +2.4%, a sign of not a total recovery.
Other important risk barometers are showing noteworthy signs of stress: the spread between US Treasuries and highly-speculative junk bonds has recently increased after several months of contraction.
Today,
With no significant US data releases this Monday, and a relatively light economic calendar, the focus for the market is firmly on the FOMC meeting.
Also, another housing indicator, this time touching the more sensitive area of housing - bank mortgages. The banking sector was also one of the most problematic sectors in this crisis. Last month, Mortgage Approvals disappointed and rose only to 27.7K, and failed to reach the 29K mark. This time, expectations are for a rise to 29.5K. It’s published on Tuesday at 16:30 SGT.
The reversal may came in Sales of existing U.S. homes, likely rose for a second straight month in May as plentiful supplies and low mortgage rates have opened the resale market to a wider range of buyers, according to a Reuters poll. Time 2200hrs SGT.
Support at 1.622, then 1.613. Breaking this could send the cable towards a bearish trend.
Resistance is at 1.653, then 1.67.
Trend: Bearish, but expect reversal at support.
Sweeping across Europe and then US, the equlity showed major drop. The DOW fell 200 points. The correlation between the GBPUSD pair and major global equity indices has pulled back to recent trade. The buck (USD) seems to be gaining on the back of poor economic estimates by the World Bank, which announced a 2.9% contraction in world economy
In UK, the HPI was reported -0.4% compared to last month +2.4%, a sign of not a total recovery.
Other important risk barometers are showing noteworthy signs of stress: the spread between US Treasuries and highly-speculative junk bonds has recently increased after several months of contraction.
Today,
With no significant US data releases this Monday, and a relatively light economic calendar, the focus for the market is firmly on the FOMC meeting.
Also, another housing indicator, this time touching the more sensitive area of housing - bank mortgages. The banking sector was also one of the most problematic sectors in this crisis. Last month, Mortgage Approvals disappointed and rose only to 27.7K, and failed to reach the 29K mark. This time, expectations are for a rise to 29.5K. It’s published on Tuesday at 16:30 SGT.
The reversal may came in Sales of existing U.S. homes, likely rose for a second straight month in May as plentiful supplies and low mortgage rates have opened the resale market to a wider range of buyers, according to a Reuters poll. Time 2200hrs SGT.
Support at 1.622, then 1.613. Breaking this could send the cable towards a bearish trend.
Resistance is at 1.653, then 1.67.
Trend: Bearish, but expect reversal at support.
Monday, June 22, 2009
22 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
Pound failed to make pass 1.66, it fall back from 1.656. This was in the midst of no major news. Now it has fall back to 1.647.
This morning, giving the first shot is HPI. This House Price Index is a fresh indicator, but not the most accurate one. It rose by 2.4% last time, but this time it fall to negative 0.4%.
Today will be another quiet day, based mainly on technicals.
CCI34 look on the down trend. It has tried a number of times to clear the top most BB(14, 0.8) line but failed. Support is at 1.6425 (1hour EMA200), then at 1.6358, followed by 1.6250.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.659, clear this and it may hit towards 1.664.
Trend: No clear one, until cable clear 1.667 or 1.618
Pound failed to make pass 1.66, it fall back from 1.656. This was in the midst of no major news. Now it has fall back to 1.647.
This morning, giving the first shot is HPI. This House Price Index is a fresh indicator, but not the most accurate one. It rose by 2.4% last time, but this time it fall to negative 0.4%.
Today will be another quiet day, based mainly on technicals.
CCI34 look on the down trend. It has tried a number of times to clear the top most BB(14, 0.8) line but failed. Support is at 1.6425 (1hour EMA200), then at 1.6358, followed by 1.6250.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.659, clear this and it may hit towards 1.664.
Trend: No clear one, until cable clear 1.667 or 1.618
Friday, June 19, 2009
19 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
In US, The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell for the first time since early January.
In UK, retail reported worse than expected results.
These are enough to push the pound lower and given that there are also no major news to disrupt today.
However, trading has been in the range 1.66 and 1.62, bouncing up and down at the median support and resistance at 1.635.
This is an interesting development, as the range 1.66 and 1.62 is all within a day trading, meaning that target can be reach within a day.
Trend: Range trading until breakout at 1.66 or 1.618
This is an interesting article on range trading:
In US, The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell for the first time since early January.
In UK, retail reported worse than expected results.
These are enough to push the pound lower and given that there are also no major news to disrupt today.
However, trading has been in the range 1.66 and 1.62, bouncing up and down at the median support and resistance at 1.635.
This is an interesting development, as the range 1.66 and 1.62 is all within a day trading, meaning that target can be reach within a day.
Trend: Range trading until breakout at 1.66 or 1.618
This is an interesting article on range trading:
Thursday, June 18, 2009
18 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
The British unemployment rate in the three months ending in April rose to 7.2%, up from 6.5% in the three months to January. Despite the lower Claimant than previous, the pound began its decline from 1.648 to 1.622. It rebound during US trading sessions with Consumer prices rose less than expected in May and posted the steepest annual drop in 59 years, according to government data released Wednesday, fresh evidence that the recession is keeping inflation in check.
Late in the night, BoE says Bank need more capital.
Prices has been fluctuate between the EMA200 line in the 1-hour chart at 1.636. Resistance at 1.648 and support at 1.622.
Which way will it go today? The last of UK major news is on
Retail Sales: This major economic indicator has shown strength last time by rising nicely - 0.9%. This time, expectations are more modest - a rise of 0.4%. British Retail Sales are released on Thursday at 1630 SGT.
Break the resistance and it will go to 1.66, break the support and it will hit 1.60.
The British unemployment rate in the three months ending in April rose to 7.2%, up from 6.5% in the three months to January. Despite the lower Claimant than previous, the pound began its decline from 1.648 to 1.622. It rebound during US trading sessions with Consumer prices rose less than expected in May and posted the steepest annual drop in 59 years, according to government data released Wednesday, fresh evidence that the recession is keeping inflation in check.
Late in the night, BoE says Bank need more capital.
Prices has been fluctuate between the EMA200 line in the 1-hour chart at 1.636. Resistance at 1.648 and support at 1.622.
Which way will it go today? The last of UK major news is on
Retail Sales: This major economic indicator has shown strength last time by rising nicely - 0.9%. This time, expectations are more modest - a rise of 0.4%. British Retail Sales are released on Thursday at 1630 SGT.
Break the resistance and it will go to 1.66, break the support and it will hit 1.60.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
17 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
DOW extended its pullback Tuesday after news of a seventh straight monthly drop in industrial production overshadowed better-than-expected reports on home construction, building permits and inflation.
UK CPI rose to expected 1.9%, pushing the pound up during European trading below falling from 1.645 t0 current 1.636.
Today, the earliest and most important indicator for the British job market, Claminant Count Change. Claims are predicted to rise to 61.8K. The British job marjet still hasn’t reached a bottom. The unemployment rate is on the rise. It’ll be released at 1630 SGT.
On the technical side, looking at the 1-hour chart, there is a squeeze 1.635 and 1.640.
Support is at 1.61875, then 1.6007. Resistance is at 1.655, then 1.6705
Trend: Bearish, with strong support at 1.61875, unless it clear resistance at 1.6705
DOW extended its pullback Tuesday after news of a seventh straight monthly drop in industrial production overshadowed better-than-expected reports on home construction, building permits and inflation.
UK CPI rose to expected 1.9%, pushing the pound up during European trading below falling from 1.645 t0 current 1.636.
Today, the earliest and most important indicator for the British job market, Claminant Count Change. Claims are predicted to rise to 61.8K. The British job marjet still hasn’t reached a bottom. The unemployment rate is on the rise. It’ll be released at 1630 SGT.
On the technical side, looking at the 1-hour chart, there is a squeeze 1.635 and 1.640.
Support is at 1.61875, then 1.6007. Resistance is at 1.655, then 1.6705
Trend: Bearish, with strong support at 1.61875, unless it clear resistance at 1.6705
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
16 June 2009
GU Analysis
The Dow Jones industrials fell 187 points Monday. The slide began in Asia and Europe and spread to the U.S. as a strong dollar pushed commodities prices sharply lower.
Overseas trading was influenced by the dollar, which rose against most other major currencies following weekend comments from Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, that the greenback likely would remain the world's reserve currency.
Today, first at 1630 SGT, the UK CPI news. Is Britain sinking into deflation? The Euro zone is already there, and Britain has avoided falling prices so far. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 1.9% (annually adjusted). This is lower than last month’s 2.3%. If this happens, the Pound will suffer. This is the fisr indicator for the week, and quite a strong one.
Tonight UK production and housing at 2030hrs SGT. Reports on manufacturing and housing this week will probably offer evidence that the recession- stricken U.S. economy is within months of hitting bottom
Looking technically, pound will first target support at daily EMA21 at 1.6125, then 1.594. Resistance is at 1.644 then 1.658.
Trend: Bearish.
The Dow Jones industrials fell 187 points Monday. The slide began in Asia and Europe and spread to the U.S. as a strong dollar pushed commodities prices sharply lower.
Overseas trading was influenced by the dollar, which rose against most other major currencies following weekend comments from Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, that the greenback likely would remain the world's reserve currency.
Today, first at 1630 SGT, the UK CPI news. Is Britain sinking into deflation? The Euro zone is already there, and Britain has avoided falling prices so far. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 1.9% (annually adjusted). This is lower than last month’s 2.3%. If this happens, the Pound will suffer. This is the fisr indicator for the week, and quite a strong one.
Tonight UK production and housing at 2030hrs SGT. Reports on manufacturing and housing this week will probably offer evidence that the recession- stricken U.S. economy is within months of hitting bottom
Looking technically, pound will first target support at daily EMA21 at 1.6125, then 1.594. Resistance is at 1.644 then 1.658.
Trend: Bearish.
Monday, June 15, 2009
15 June 2009
GU Analysis:
No major news today. But look out this week for CPI, Claimant Count Change, a speech by Mervyn King and Retail Sales that will move the British Pound.
With no news the fall will be upon technical. Pound has retreated from a high of 1.666 and now looking at the daily chart, a double top formation.
Support is found at a similiar strong line at 1.58.
This means that breaking either 1.666 or 1.58 will set pound clearly in direction.
For today it may be unlikely for this to happen and thus we look short term at the 1 hour chart. EMA200 pose a strong support at 1.634 while 1.652 pose as it resistance.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way movement trading within 1.634 and 1.652.
No major news today. But look out this week for CPI, Claimant Count Change, a speech by Mervyn King and Retail Sales that will move the British Pound.
With no news the fall will be upon technical. Pound has retreated from a high of 1.666 and now looking at the daily chart, a double top formation.
Support is found at a similiar strong line at 1.58.
This means that breaking either 1.666 or 1.58 will set pound clearly in direction.
For today it may be unlikely for this to happen and thus we look short term at the 1 hour chart. EMA200 pose a strong support at 1.634 while 1.652 pose as it resistance.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way movement trading within 1.634 and 1.652.
Friday, June 12, 2009
12 June 2009
GU Analysis:
US initial unemployment claims has start to fall. Good news, as this is the lagging confirmation that the economy is recovering. However, plaguing the situation is that Treasury yields retreated as the highest levels of the year attracted buyers to an auction of 30-year bonds. High interest means a stronger demand for US dollars.
The pound on the other side remain strong and has not retreated, it hit 1.662. FSTE advance.
On the technical side, CCI still show sign of a bull. It has potential to climb. As there are no major UK news today, its all technical.
Pound hit high at 1.666 last week. This give a good breakout price for pound to sail towards 1.77.
Is this part of a B-wave turning to a C-wave down or is this the start of a C-wave towards 1.77?
Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.69-1.702, the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Support is at 1.6519, then 1.641, then 1.6250
Trend: Bullish but may reverse at resistance 1.67 to become a C-wave down.
US initial unemployment claims has start to fall. Good news, as this is the lagging confirmation that the economy is recovering. However, plaguing the situation is that Treasury yields retreated as the highest levels of the year attracted buyers to an auction of 30-year bonds. High interest means a stronger demand for US dollars.
The pound on the other side remain strong and has not retreated, it hit 1.662. FSTE advance.
On the technical side, CCI still show sign of a bull. It has potential to climb. As there are no major UK news today, its all technical.
Pound hit high at 1.666 last week. This give a good breakout price for pound to sail towards 1.77.
Is this part of a B-wave turning to a C-wave down or is this the start of a C-wave towards 1.77?
Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.69-1.702, the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Support is at 1.6519, then 1.641, then 1.6250
Trend: Bullish but may reverse at resistance 1.67 to become a C-wave down.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
11 June 2009
GU Analysis:
US stock fall on fear of an increase in debts. In order to buy these treasury bonds, Feb has raised the 10 treasury bonds yields. The increase in interest has cause some fear in inflation.
Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said the U.K. recession may be “bottoming out,” setting the scene for a recovery as soon as this year.
Today we have the US announcing its retail sales and unemployment, all pointing to an expected retail sales figures, better consumer confidence. Watch out for unemplyment claims at 2030hrs SGT.
Technically, the pound form a doji, point to a possibility in either direction. CCI continue to show up trend. At the 1hour chart, it is support by EMA21 at 1.634, then EMA200 at 1.618.
Pound went high yesterday to 1.6474 and has since retrace to its 50% at 1.6357, nearing its 68% at 1.6384.
Resistance is at 1.645, then 1.657.
Over trend: Bullish, due to a weak dollars and CCI confirmation. But caution as this may be the turning point for the start of a C-wave down.
US stock fall on fear of an increase in debts. In order to buy these treasury bonds, Feb has raised the 10 treasury bonds yields. The increase in interest has cause some fear in inflation.
Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said the U.K. recession may be “bottoming out,” setting the scene for a recovery as soon as this year.
Today we have the US announcing its retail sales and unemployment, all pointing to an expected retail sales figures, better consumer confidence. Watch out for unemplyment claims at 2030hrs SGT.
Technically, the pound form a doji, point to a possibility in either direction. CCI continue to show up trend. At the 1hour chart, it is support by EMA21 at 1.634, then EMA200 at 1.618.
Pound went high yesterday to 1.6474 and has since retrace to its 50% at 1.6357, nearing its 68% at 1.6384.
Resistance is at 1.645, then 1.657.
Over trend: Bullish, due to a weak dollars and CCI confirmation. But caution as this may be the turning point for the start of a C-wave down.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
10 June 2009
GU Analysis:
After a short retracement the release of the UK RICS House Price Balance, the pound began its ascend. On the US side, Treasury Sec Geithner said that the US government will perform Regulatory Overhaul on the financial system to reduce the effect of credit crisis on firms, in addition the Treasury will start Toxic Asset removal plan.
Today at 1630SGT, UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance. All this will point the direction of a recovering economy. The UK trade balance is at 2030SGT.
On the technical side, the pound break the EMA200 on its 1-hour chart, it did a good retracement on the daily chart all the way touching its 68% at 1.6334.
This could be a start of a C-wave, the start of a bigger up with the potential to hit 1.68, then 1.74. However on the hind side, this could also be just a B-wave, for a potential big C-wave down, supported at 1.58, then 1.55.
Today resistance is at 1.645, then 1.658, Support is at 1.623, then 1.600.
Trend: Bullish, beware of resistance.
After a short retracement the release of the UK RICS House Price Balance, the pound began its ascend. On the US side, Treasury Sec Geithner said that the US government will perform Regulatory Overhaul on the financial system to reduce the effect of credit crisis on firms, in addition the Treasury will start Toxic Asset removal plan.
Today at 1630SGT, UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance. All this will point the direction of a recovering economy. The UK trade balance is at 2030SGT.
On the technical side, the pound break the EMA200 on its 1-hour chart, it did a good retracement on the daily chart all the way touching its 68% at 1.6334.
This could be a start of a C-wave, the start of a bigger up with the potential to hit 1.68, then 1.74. However on the hind side, this could also be just a B-wave, for a potential big C-wave down, supported at 1.58, then 1.55.
Today resistance is at 1.645, then 1.658, Support is at 1.623, then 1.600.
Trend: Bullish, beware of resistance.
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
9 June 2009
GU Analysis:
The DOW dipped 130 before a last hours spike to positive ground, ending a little more than a point. Signs that enconomy is really recovering and fear missing out the opportunity may have caused this spike.
On the UK side, The Bank of England is proposing an extension to its Asset Purchase Facility to buy secured commercial paper as part of its plan to restore liquidity to credit markets. Plus this morning a better than expected housing news showed sign of steady UK recovery. But of course, the recent scandal in UK may threathen the political stability of Gordon Brown.
Nevertheless, the pound, in spite a absence of news rally up from its daily EMA21 at 1.587 and ended 1.610.
There are no major news today, until Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks at 2230hrs SGT.
Looking at the technicals for clue, the pound has not traded out of its 1.58 and 1.62. CCI has showed some sign of reversal up but its a bit early to conclude.
If pound break up at 1.62, it will be bullish again, heading towards 1.626, then 1.645.
If it hit below 1.58, it will head towards 1.552, then 1.515.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way trading within band, before any strong direction indication.
The DOW dipped 130 before a last hours spike to positive ground, ending a little more than a point. Signs that enconomy is really recovering and fear missing out the opportunity may have caused this spike.
On the UK side, The Bank of England is proposing an extension to its Asset Purchase Facility to buy secured commercial paper as part of its plan to restore liquidity to credit markets. Plus this morning a better than expected housing news showed sign of steady UK recovery. But of course, the recent scandal in UK may threathen the political stability of Gordon Brown.
Nevertheless, the pound, in spite a absence of news rally up from its daily EMA21 at 1.587 and ended 1.610.
There are no major news today, until Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks at 2230hrs SGT.
Looking at the technicals for clue, the pound has not traded out of its 1.58 and 1.62. CCI has showed some sign of reversal up but its a bit early to conclude.
If pound break up at 1.62, it will be bullish again, heading towards 1.626, then 1.645.
If it hit below 1.58, it will head towards 1.552, then 1.515.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way trading within band, before any strong direction indication.
Monday, June 08, 2009
8 June 2009
GU Analysis:
Australian banks are on holiday.
Europe and US has a lack of news today.
Basically, it is left to the technical for any movement of the ppund today.
A number of forecast that the US enconomy recovery and the UK economy may need to print more money. There is however no news and data that directly backs them up.
Technically, the pound may trade within the range 1.6080 and 1.5785.
Support is at 1.5785, then 1.5520.
Resistance is at 1.6080, then 1.620.
Trend: Bearish, but may move side around the trading range stated.
Australian banks are on holiday.
Europe and US has a lack of news today.
Basically, it is left to the technical for any movement of the ppund today.
A number of forecast that the US enconomy recovery and the UK economy may need to print more money. There is however no news and data that directly backs them up.
Technically, the pound may trade within the range 1.6080 and 1.5785.
Support is at 1.5785, then 1.5520.
Resistance is at 1.6080, then 1.620.
Trend: Bearish, but may move side around the trading range stated.
Friday, June 05, 2009
5 June 2009
GU Analysis:
The Pound bounced off the resistance line at 1.6670 down to 1.6115.
GBP/USD raised its head when Halifax HPI in Britain showed an unexpected big gain. The BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged, and to to keep the Quantitative program unchanged. Traders were expecting more, and the Pound fell back. Today, we’ll see if Britain also suffers from deflation. PPI input will draw attention at 1630hrs SGT.
Yesterday, Ben Bernenke's announcement about the gradual recovery have encouraged the traders to take profit and reevaluate the current situation. Dow came down to close at 8666 and the dollar could get off its year low versus the British pound but yesterday the risk appetite has been brought back to the market pushing DOW above 8700 again putting the greenback under pressure.
Looking technically first at the CCI, it showed a down and no clear indication whether it will reverse up or continue down. The 1=hour chart provide clues to where the support which is at current 1.609, then 1.595, then 1.588.
Resistance is at 1.630, then 1.642.
Overall bearish, but expect a rebound off the support at around 1.59 region.
The Pound bounced off the resistance line at 1.6670 down to 1.6115.
GBP/USD raised its head when Halifax HPI in Britain showed an unexpected big gain. The BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged, and to to keep the Quantitative program unchanged. Traders were expecting more, and the Pound fell back. Today, we’ll see if Britain also suffers from deflation. PPI input will draw attention at 1630hrs SGT.
Yesterday, Ben Bernenke's announcement about the gradual recovery have encouraged the traders to take profit and reevaluate the current situation. Dow came down to close at 8666 and the dollar could get off its year low versus the British pound but yesterday the risk appetite has been brought back to the market pushing DOW above 8700 again putting the greenback under pressure.
Looking technically first at the CCI, it showed a down and no clear indication whether it will reverse up or continue down. The 1=hour chart provide clues to where the support which is at current 1.609, then 1.595, then 1.588.
Resistance is at 1.630, then 1.642.
Overall bearish, but expect a rebound off the support at around 1.59 region.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
4 June 2009
GU Analysis:
Is yesterday fall a retracement or a change in trend?
In UK all the good news with Serive PMI showed a better than expected results. Tonight BoE at 1900hrs, will announce their plans. How the British pound responds to the rate decision will likely depend on the BOE’s stance in their policy statement. Signs that the BOE may increase their gilt purchases could weigh heavily on the British pound, especially against the euro, while the opposite (steady rates, no QE expansion) could provide a boost to the UK’s currency, though the markets are just as likely to show no reaction in this case. (from DailyFx)
The Dow and commodities market did a reversal, for either profit taking or showing signs of uncomfortable evidences that the growth may not be as expected. Wall Street fell after the disappointing figures were released from manufacturing PMI and factory output. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, meanwhile, said Wednesday that the economy will begin growing later this year, but the improvement will be slight. He has shifted his focus on debts rather than his "green shoots" theory.
Technically, yesterday's candle mark a bearish engulfment. CCI pointed down, but may be short live as the indicator came down not from the top of the BB, but below. But pound has been overbought for a long time, it may need a breather. Using Fib retracement, support is at 1.612, then 1.578.
Looking at the 1hour chat, GU is now supported at 1.622 and may confine in the trading range of 1.622 and 1.646. A break up from 1.646 will show that it is only a short retracement and GU will find resistance at 1.665, then may journeyed towards its target 1.7.
Trend: Still bullish with assumption that yesterday trade was just a technical retracement.
Is yesterday fall a retracement or a change in trend?
In UK all the good news with Serive PMI showed a better than expected results. Tonight BoE at 1900hrs, will announce their plans. How the British pound responds to the rate decision will likely depend on the BOE’s stance in their policy statement. Signs that the BOE may increase their gilt purchases could weigh heavily on the British pound, especially against the euro, while the opposite (steady rates, no QE expansion) could provide a boost to the UK’s currency, though the markets are just as likely to show no reaction in this case. (from DailyFx)
The Dow and commodities market did a reversal, for either profit taking or showing signs of uncomfortable evidences that the growth may not be as expected. Wall Street fell after the disappointing figures were released from manufacturing PMI and factory output. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, meanwhile, said Wednesday that the economy will begin growing later this year, but the improvement will be slight. He has shifted his focus on debts rather than his "green shoots" theory.
Technically, yesterday's candle mark a bearish engulfment. CCI pointed down, but may be short live as the indicator came down not from the top of the BB, but below. But pound has been overbought for a long time, it may need a breather. Using Fib retracement, support is at 1.612, then 1.578.
Looking at the 1hour chat, GU is now supported at 1.622 and may confine in the trading range of 1.622 and 1.646. A break up from 1.646 will show that it is only a short retracement and GU will find resistance at 1.665, then may journeyed towards its target 1.7.
Trend: Still bullish with assumption that yesterday trade was just a technical retracement.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
3 June 2009
GU Analysis
UK Construction PMI showed sign of easing and that was a tripple followed, last week Halifax HPI, Monday's Manufacturing PMI, yesterday Construction PMI.
Today we have Service PMI at 1630hrs SGT.
The pound start to retrace when it reached 1.65, dropping almost 150 pips before this PMI news push the pound back to almost 1.66. All the good news will continue the rally in pound.
At the US side, good housing news has rally the DOW up. Today we have unemployment rate, which may top 9%, but showed sign of easing.
Now, what may slowed the pound down is probably some profit taking and retracement, technically. The CCI showed sign of tapering or squeezing, indicating slow down and side way movement.
Resistance is at 1.69 and 1.702 region. The next one is at 1.77 then 1.82 (50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491).
Support is at 1.638, then 1.623.
Overall trend is bullish, but expect retracement and some side way movement, before the market gain new high or alter its course of direction.
UK Construction PMI showed sign of easing and that was a tripple followed, last week Halifax HPI, Monday's Manufacturing PMI, yesterday Construction PMI.
Today we have Service PMI at 1630hrs SGT.
The pound start to retrace when it reached 1.65, dropping almost 150 pips before this PMI news push the pound back to almost 1.66. All the good news will continue the rally in pound.
At the US side, good housing news has rally the DOW up. Today we have unemployment rate, which may top 9%, but showed sign of easing.
Now, what may slowed the pound down is probably some profit taking and retracement, technically. The CCI showed sign of tapering or squeezing, indicating slow down and side way movement.
Resistance is at 1.69 and 1.702 region. The next one is at 1.77 then 1.82 (50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491).
Support is at 1.638, then 1.623.
Overall trend is bullish, but expect retracement and some side way movement, before the market gain new high or alter its course of direction.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
2 June 2009
0800hrs SGT
The Dow rallied again and comodities prices rose. All these point to an economy that is recovering or at least it seem to be.
FSTE rose and Manufacturing PMI show improvement. This is the second set of important UK data after Halifax HPI. Today the data to look for is Construction PMI at 1630SGT.
GU gave an impressive run to almost 1.65 yesterday. The pound has been too oversold since the credit crunch down from its high of >2.000 to low of abt 1.35, it has potential to climb to 1.72, a 50% retracement. Coupled with the overbought USD during the crisis and the trillions of pump in, the dollars has significantly weaken.
Looking immediate at the resistance it is at 1.658, then 1.703. CCI as mentioned, has been short lived for short. It has rebound up from the lower BB and is heading up.
Taking a look at the hour chart, and using Fib retracement, support is at 1.638 and 1.630.
Overall trend is up, but may move down for some consolidation.
The Dow rallied again and comodities prices rose. All these point to an economy that is recovering or at least it seem to be.
FSTE rose and Manufacturing PMI show improvement. This is the second set of important UK data after Halifax HPI. Today the data to look for is Construction PMI at 1630SGT.
GU gave an impressive run to almost 1.65 yesterday. The pound has been too oversold since the credit crunch down from its high of >2.000 to low of abt 1.35, it has potential to climb to 1.72, a 50% retracement. Coupled with the overbought USD during the crisis and the trillions of pump in, the dollars has significantly weaken.
Looking immediate at the resistance it is at 1.658, then 1.703. CCI as mentioned, has been short lived for short. It has rebound up from the lower BB and is heading up.
Taking a look at the hour chart, and using Fib retracement, support is at 1.638 and 1.630.
Overall trend is up, but may move down for some consolidation.
Monday, June 01, 2009
1 June 2009
GBPUSD:
Halifax HPI for the first time the house index has stop falling for the last 20months. Today with Manufacturing PMI releasing at 2030hrs, it is expected to raise from 42 to 44, though under 50, but it will be good enough to see the pound continue on its trend higher.
Technically, GU has gain above support at 1.6, hit 1.62. It should face its first major resistance at 1.68. Though very heavily oversold, but CCI has indicated that any down is only short live. It may dive lower for some retracement to 1.597 and 1.579
Holiday in NZ, France and Germany and that will make the Asian and Europe trading session quiet, before the news at 2030hrs. Trading range is expected at 1.62 and 1.612. Any breaks from this range will allow GU to hit towards 1.64 then 1.68 or go down to 1.602 then to 1.597.
Overall, GU trend is still long.
Halifax HPI for the first time the house index has stop falling for the last 20months. Today with Manufacturing PMI releasing at 2030hrs, it is expected to raise from 42 to 44, though under 50, but it will be good enough to see the pound continue on its trend higher.
Technically, GU has gain above support at 1.6, hit 1.62. It should face its first major resistance at 1.68. Though very heavily oversold, but CCI has indicated that any down is only short live. It may dive lower for some retracement to 1.597 and 1.579
Holiday in NZ, France and Germany and that will make the Asian and Europe trading session quiet, before the news at 2030hrs. Trading range is expected at 1.62 and 1.612. Any breaks from this range will allow GU to hit towards 1.64 then 1.68 or go down to 1.602 then to 1.597.
Overall, GU trend is still long.
Friday, May 08, 2009
8 May 2009
Technically, it all point to a bearish movement. GBP hit 1.52 high and reverese. It did a major reverse with strength breaking support at 1.516, 1.509, then 1.50. It finally landed low at 1.494 and now doing retracement.
Candlestick formation shows bearish engulfment and CCI 14 point to a new start of selling soon.
So, then are the fundamental supporting the bearish movement?
Yesterday, BOE steady rates as contrast to ECB reducing rates. MPC increase bond purchase, a sign which in my opinion point to an economy that still need more medicine.
In the US, the much expected news on bank stress test point to an economy that is still recovering. DOW drop by a 1%. More US news will be out tonight. The steady accumulation of job losses does not bode well for economic growth going forward and indicates that the unemployment rate will continue to climb. The 8:30 ET release of US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) is likely to show job losses for the sixteenth straight month in April, but the rate of decline is anticipated to slow.
US news are tricky - but if both economy are weak, the flock back to the greenback for safety is there and that strengthen the dollars.
Candlestick formation shows bearish engulfment and CCI 14 point to a new start of selling soon.
So, then are the fundamental supporting the bearish movement?
Yesterday, BOE steady rates as contrast to ECB reducing rates. MPC increase bond purchase, a sign which in my opinion point to an economy that still need more medicine.
In the US, the much expected news on bank stress test point to an economy that is still recovering. DOW drop by a 1%. More US news will be out tonight. The steady accumulation of job losses does not bode well for economic growth going forward and indicates that the unemployment rate will continue to climb. The 8:30 ET release of US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) is likely to show job losses for the sixteenth straight month in April, but the rate of decline is anticipated to slow.
US news are tricky - but if both economy are weak, the flock back to the greenback for safety is there and that strengthen the dollars.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
7 May 2009
Good news in the US, coupled with DOW gaining 100 points yesterday sowing the strength of the recovery. However, this only weaken the pound, but it seem contridicted as at now, the price has near the top of the resistance at 1.515.
Major news from MPC out in the afternoon. That news might bring a break out of the pound to new high towards 1.538.
Meanwhile in the morning, will the market trade the GBP down from its resistance? Wait to see. The next resistance is at 1.526. It may retrace to 1.5076, then 1.5056. Support still strong at 1.50.
From the chart GBP has been oversold by more than 150% and may start is bear run.
Overall direction is now mix with both bullish and bearish sentiments.
Major news from MPC out in the afternoon. That news might bring a break out of the pound to new high towards 1.538.
Meanwhile in the morning, will the market trade the GBP down from its resistance? Wait to see. The next resistance is at 1.526. It may retrace to 1.5076, then 1.5056. Support still strong at 1.50.
From the chart GBP has been oversold by more than 150% and may start is bear run.
Overall direction is now mix with both bullish and bearish sentiments.
Wednesday, May 06, 2009
6 May 2009
This morning 0700 SGT, UK gave some good news on Consumer confidence. The better than expected results may spur GBP to move higher. But of course, another important news that will be out is Housing Price Index (HPI) and Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) at 1630 SGT.
Japan is on holiday and thus we may not see any big movement, but my expectation is for GBP to move up before 1630hrs news before it deceide on the next direction.
Looking technically, GBP has gain new high above 1.516. It has done its retracement from 1.516 to now at 1.505, almost to 50% at 1.5. Giving at good support.
Looking technically at a macro level, GBP has reached a very much overbought position (using CCI 14) by almost more than 150%. It has not reverse, showing strength of reaching a level of 1.53 (resistance level at 100EMA)
Japan is on holiday and thus we may not see any big movement, but my expectation is for GBP to move up before 1630hrs news before it deceide on the next direction.
Looking technically, GBP has gain new high above 1.516. It has done its retracement from 1.516 to now at 1.505, almost to 50% at 1.5. Giving at good support.
Looking technically at a macro level, GBP has reached a very much overbought position (using CCI 14) by almost more than 150%. It has not reverse, showing strength of reaching a level of 1.53 (resistance level at 100EMA)
Thursday, April 23, 2009
23 Apr 2009
Yesterday comments:
GU did a unexpected up all the way to 1.466, before down 200 pips within 1 hour from 2000hrs SGT, when UK finance minster was giving his speech at 1930hrs.
Fundamental:
After the last minute DOW sell off and coupled with the bads UK sentiments after Darling speech, I expect the FTSE to loose ground.
There will be a list of news for Europe from 1500hrs to 1700hrs, followed by US Exisiting home sales at 2200hrs.
Technicals:
Trend: No clear indication as looking at the daily chart WMA5 hovers between EMA200 and EMA55. If it goes through, support will be at 1.43. But if it rebound, resistance will be at 1.465.
CCI also show no direction. It has the potential to go down further or it may reverse.
GU did a unexpected up all the way to 1.466, before down 200 pips within 1 hour from 2000hrs SGT, when UK finance minster was giving his speech at 1930hrs.
Fundamental:
After the last minute DOW sell off and coupled with the bads UK sentiments after Darling speech, I expect the FTSE to loose ground.
There will be a list of news for Europe from 1500hrs to 1700hrs, followed by US Exisiting home sales at 2200hrs.
Technicals:
Trend: No clear indication as looking at the daily chart WMA5 hovers between EMA200 and EMA55. If it goes through, support will be at 1.43. But if it rebound, resistance will be at 1.465.
CCI also show no direction. It has the potential to go down further or it may reverse.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Yesterday comments:
Instead of a down, GU did a surprise up. It broke the resistance at 1.458 and head straight to 1.47. US market did not take a beating as on Monday, after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner convinced Wall Street to give banks another chance Tuesday.
Fundamental:
Wednesday morning could prove to be another tumultuous time for the British pound, as two key UK releases will both hit the wires at 16:30 SGT. With job losses accelerating, the UK's recession is unlikely to bottom out anytime soon and thus, disappointing results could lead to a sharp GBP/USD pullback. On the other hand, better-than-anticipated figures could provide a boost to the currency.
Technicals:
CCI is consolidating. It has reversed after yesterday sprang up. It still has steam to down to come to a oversold position of more than -100. Now is hovers at -10.
Trend: flat
Support at 1.452 and resistance at 1.475.
Instead of a down, GU did a surprise up. It broke the resistance at 1.458 and head straight to 1.47. US market did not take a beating as on Monday, after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner convinced Wall Street to give banks another chance Tuesday.
Fundamental:
Wednesday morning could prove to be another tumultuous time for the British pound, as two key UK releases will both hit the wires at 16:30 SGT. With job losses accelerating, the UK's recession is unlikely to bottom out anytime soon and thus, disappointing results could lead to a sharp GBP/USD pullback. On the other hand, better-than-anticipated figures could provide a boost to the currency.
Technicals:
CCI is consolidating. It has reversed after yesterday sprang up. It still has steam to down to come to a oversold position of more than -100. Now is hovers at -10.
Trend: flat
Support at 1.452 and resistance at 1.475.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
21 Apr 2009
Fundamental:
CPI will be the major news at SGT1630hrs. If CPI continue to be below the expected 2.9%, GU will go down.
DOW gave up gains yesterday, Nikkei this morning. FTSE may follows. Like the previous, the fear come from the results of the coming bandk stress test and may point to another round of selling. Of course, when traslated to GU, people will flock to USD, pushing the GU down.
Technicals:
CCI is still on a down trend. Probability of it going down is there as compare for it to reverse. It nows hovers around -10 and can hit -100 before any sign of reversal.
Support is at 1.430 and resistance is at 1.470.
CPI will be the major news at SGT1630hrs. If CPI continue to be below the expected 2.9%, GU will go down.
DOW gave up gains yesterday, Nikkei this morning. FTSE may follows. Like the previous, the fear come from the results of the coming bandk stress test and may point to another round of selling. Of course, when traslated to GU, people will flock to USD, pushing the GU down.
Technicals:
CCI is still on a down trend. Probability of it going down is there as compare for it to reverse. It nows hovers around -10 and can hit -100 before any sign of reversal.
Support is at 1.430 and resistance is at 1.470.
Monday, April 20, 2009
GU
Fundamental:
There are not many key news today.
But over the last week, UK housing showed sign of improvement. Together with ECB intending to cut rates. All pointing to signs and actions of a road to recovery in Europe.
Goods news by bank in US coupled with better earning reports has pushed DOW up. It may be time for some selling before market deceide its direction
Technicals:
CCI(34) on a down trend.
It has hit its first support at 1.47 in the morning trading. Next support is at 1.465 then 1.456
Resistance at 1.480, then 1.490
Fundamental:
There are not many key news today.
But over the last week, UK housing showed sign of improvement. Together with ECB intending to cut rates. All pointing to signs and actions of a road to recovery in Europe.
Goods news by bank in US coupled with better earning reports has pushed DOW up. It may be time for some selling before market deceide its direction
Technicals:
CCI(34) on a down trend.
It has hit its first support at 1.47 in the morning trading. Next support is at 1.465 then 1.456
Resistance at 1.480, then 1.490
Friday, April 17, 2009
17 Apr 2009
Yesterday comments:
Instead of a up candle, it is a down. But support was at 1.484 as predicted at 1.485. GU swinged back but still close down at 1.492 in the morning, down from its opeing at 1.502.
GU make a down after opening yesterday and it was only until the US trading time before it swing back.
Fundamental:
There are no major US news. UoM Confidence is at SGT 2030 which is a Financial confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
ECB Trichet will speak at SGT 1100. This will determine the cut in interest rate, but most likely not, and the impact may not be great.
Dow up another 100 points, overriding the housing bad news. This also show sign of US on the road to recovery. Of course, yesterday gave better unemployment claims data and with JP Morgan showcasing profits.
Technicals:
GU may attempt 1.50. The trend however pointed lower using the CCI34.
Support is found at 1.482 and first resistance is at 1.506
There is a squeeze between 1.487 and 1.495, before it decide going towards the support or the resistance.
My opinion:
Trend: down
Trade within squeeze band and let go when out of band, before trading at reversal at resistance or support line.
Instead of a up candle, it is a down. But support was at 1.484 as predicted at 1.485. GU swinged back but still close down at 1.492 in the morning, down from its opeing at 1.502.
GU make a down after opening yesterday and it was only until the US trading time before it swing back.
Fundamental:
There are no major US news. UoM Confidence is at SGT 2030 which is a Financial confidence, a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
ECB Trichet will speak at SGT 1100. This will determine the cut in interest rate, but most likely not, and the impact may not be great.
Dow up another 100 points, overriding the housing bad news. This also show sign of US on the road to recovery. Of course, yesterday gave better unemployment claims data and with JP Morgan showcasing profits.
Technicals:
GU may attempt 1.50. The trend however pointed lower using the CCI34.
Support is found at 1.482 and first resistance is at 1.506
There is a squeeze between 1.487 and 1.495, before it decide going towards the support or the resistance.
My opinion:
Trend: down
Trade within squeeze band and let go when out of band, before trading at reversal at resistance or support line.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
16 Apr 2009
GU.
Fundamental:
Dow was up a 100 points last night. The Fed said there are signs of bottoming. The market has been running up some 25%.
Tonight with "Housing starts" and "unemployment claims" at SGT 2030hrs, it will show whether a confimation of the health of the economy. This will determine whether GU will climb higher or again do some consolidation.
Europe on the other side is battered with bad news from UBS as compare to the relative good news from the US major banks. This give GU some injection for weakening.
Oil on the other side has ended below 50, against a recent high of 55. This show some of consolidation.
Technical:
Looking at the daily CCI, GU is still on a up trend, but showed sign of tappering side way or reverse. It managed to punch through 1.5 and should be heading towards 1.53 (EMA200)
Resistance is at 1.53
Support: 1.485
My Opinion:
Trend: up, unless the major news reverse it
Both fundamental and technical points to a consolidation, so watch out for the resistance and signs of reversal.
Fundamental:
Dow was up a 100 points last night. The Fed said there are signs of bottoming. The market has been running up some 25%.
Tonight with "Housing starts" and "unemployment claims" at SGT 2030hrs, it will show whether a confimation of the health of the economy. This will determine whether GU will climb higher or again do some consolidation.
Europe on the other side is battered with bad news from UBS as compare to the relative good news from the US major banks. This give GU some injection for weakening.
Oil on the other side has ended below 50, against a recent high of 55. This show some of consolidation.
Technical:
Looking at the daily CCI, GU is still on a up trend, but showed sign of tappering side way or reverse. It managed to punch through 1.5 and should be heading towards 1.53 (EMA200)
Resistance is at 1.53
Support: 1.485
My Opinion:
Trend: up, unless the major news reverse it
Both fundamental and technical points to a consolidation, so watch out for the resistance and signs of reversal.
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