30 July 2009

GBP/USD Analysis:
1200hrs SGT

The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.

Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.

But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.

GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.

WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.

Resistance is at 1.648.

Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.