20 July 2009

GU Analysis:
Looking at the technical chart for last week, cable has been supported by EMA21 at 1.632. Direction is still not clear from the technical point of view. CCI is up, but is captured in the over bought position, meaning that it can reverse down or it could run higher.

Today, at 1630SGT, UK Prelim M4 Money Supply. This may not have a strong impact on the pound, but nevertheless show sign of the economy recovery out of the credit crunch - are the banks lending as much again?

More importantly is the release of the minutes from the Bank of England's July 9 meeting at 1630 SGT on Wednesday and the 1630 SGT advanced reading of Q2 GDP for the UK on Thursday. Both will show further sign of how UK economy is really performing.

As such, it is again all technical for today. Morning saw the attempt to break 1.64, but failed. At the 1 hour chart, all the EMAs are concentrated at around 1.634 and 1.632. This found a good support.

Resistance is at 1.64, then 1.648, then 1.656.
Support is at 1.632, 1.625, then 1.618.

Trend: up, provided support retained at 1.632