30 Jun 2009

GU Analysis:
GU hit 1.60 this morning.

In the equity market, stocks coninute its confidence run despite no major US news.

Today at 0700 SGT, UK showed improve consumer confidence. Will the run continue in the afternoon? At 1400 SGT, the realease of HPI, after being delayed from last week. Although not the first house price index, this is an accurate one. The British real estate sector has skyrocketed during the good years, and plunged in this crisis, accelerating the recession. Any good result may aid pound to touch the 1.66 barrier and break it.

Follow this at 1630, UK GDP and current account, the major news that will set the direction for GU. Britain’s current account usually shows a deficit, and the first quarter of 2009 isn’t different. At least it’s expected to squeeze down, and this might help the Pound. The deficit is predicted to fall from 7.6 to 6.5 billion.

On the technical side, pound has inched higher towards the 1.66 barrier. Support is also higher at EMA21 on the daily chart at 1.6405.

Break 1.66 and pound will need to clear 1.67 for a very sure sign of up trend, to reach above 1.705. Break below 1.64, support is at 1.625

Trend: Up, but the major news must support the direction.