2 Jul 2009

GU Analysis:
The economic calendar had a few important releases out of UK, with PMI coming out better than expected and also the very important ADP report out of US which came out worse than estimated.

Today, Non-Farm Payrolls, the king of forex cannot be avoided. This super-major American figure shakes the whole world. After a surprise last time, when “only” 345K jobs were lost, NFP is predicted to take one step backwords and show a fall of 375K jobs. Strong movements are expected also in the British pound. At 20:30 SGT.

Pound still hovers around 1.655 and 1.64, in between the EMA200 line on the 1 hour chart. This suggest any break in this region goes to the resistance at 1.67 and support at 1.62.

1.64 looked like a strong support at EMA21 on the daily chart. It means that unlikely for pound to break, but if it does so, it could go much lower than 1.62 to 1.612.

Trend: up, ADP June non farm payrolls was reported at -473k versus a downwardly revised -485k in May. A reading of -393k was expected for the June ADP report. The ADP report suggests that Thursday's US nonfarm payroll report is likely to show little improvement. If that is so, then pound will continue to move up.