GU Analysis:
Stock prices rallied this week on further expectations for economic recovery, more merger news and much higher commodity and energy prices.
Both the pound and the euro managed to break high yestarday. Euro made new high, clearing 1.445. While the pound cleared a major resistance at 1.64 and hit almost 1.659 yesterday.
Today, there will be no major news that will disrupt the movement. At 1630hrs SGT, we have UK trade Balanced. Britain traditionally has a deficit in its trade balance. Last month, it posted a slightly bigger than expected deficit – 6.5 billion. It’s expected to return to the previous figure of 6.3 billion this time. No major US news, except FOMC minutes.
If firmly supported at 1.645, pound has only 1.660 as resistance to clear before it gain higher. After a big up yesterday, the expectation is for the pound to retrace. It has retrace to its first support at 1.6488 and has rebound. Use EMA21 on the hour chart as a growing support line. If pound can maintain support at EMA21, it will attempt 1.66 again.
On the down side, retracement can go as low as 1.638 (EMA200 on the hour chart). If pound break below EMA200, prepare to relinguish long for today. You can hold, but truely if pound break below 1.625, the trend will reverse down towards 1.602.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement. You may try to catch long whenever it rebound off EMA21, EMA55 and EMA100 on a hour chart. Use 1.6530, 1.6493, 1.6464 and 1.6435 as take profit line. Be patient. Plan to stop loss below 1.6320.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment