26 Aug 2009

I am away for a getaway with my wife, praying for each other and for the family.

GU Analysis:
All the good news, from the way the Dow broke 9500 to US confidence. The Eur gain as both France and German report better than expected recovery in their economy.

BUT it seemed that GBP has failed to catch the same momentum. Even with yesterday BBA Mortgage Approvals reported more than expected, only spike the pound up to 1.644 and retun all the way to 1.632.

It will be a quiet day without UK news. But German will be expected to report better than expected Business Climate. Likewise in the US we may be further expecting good news from Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales at 2030hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT respectively.

BUT will it return the pound back to 1.64?

Looking at the technical, pound has its WMA5, from the daily chart, broke through EMA55. It may be heading towards EMA100 at 1.623. CCI is also going down.

I am expecting another black crow to form today hitting EMA100, before any possible rebound.

Support is at EMA100 at 1.623, then 1.612, then EMA200 at 1.602
Resistance is at 1.643, then 1.6506.

Trend: Down, following a downside momentum.

Because pound is in a state of dispersion, traders will tend to put in in a side line, meaning that there is no direct co relation between news and technical, it is safer to just watch and see.

A good way to play today is to wait and catch a up for a possible rebound at 1.623 and if it break 1.612, abandon long to go short towards 1.602.

If by morning and early afternoon it start to go up, the most it can hit is 1.64. If it break 1.643, catch it long to 1.65.