GBP/USD Analysis:
The Stocks market rally again.
Pound is kept withing range of 1.655 and 1.660, failing again to break high. On the down side, it is supported strong by daily EMA21 at 1.640/1.634
News from www.investica.co.uk says that result may not be as expected and spur a selling of EUR/USD
From www.bloomberg.com, economy may show recovery from GDP results.
According to www.forexcrunch.com the result from GfK Consumer Confidence this morning has shown that the confidence has dropped (actual result).
There is no news this afternoon that may affect the pound, so it is all technical. The GfK confidence result this morning may weaken the pound till the news for US GDP at 2030hrsSGT.
Based on technical, pound is strongly resisted at 1.660 (see daily chart). It is also supported by EMA21 (see daily chart) now at 1.640
If the sentiments by GfK confidence is bad, lets observe the morning market. From the hour chart, we see no movement yet. But clearly during the night, the pound hovers between 1.653 and 1.647. Going lower see that pound is resisted by EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 at around 1.6440 and that form the first level of support, following that we see support at the low of 30July 0700 candle at 1.6340.
General trend is from CCI which show a weak up movement. Meaning it has weakness for a potential reversal.
Trend: Not clear in the afternoon unless GfK triggered strong movement else direction should be clearer until US market for GDP news.
Trading Breakout Up
One way to trade is to assume a breakout during the afternoon trading hours, but this is risky because of GfK confidence news. Placing a long at 1.653 is good, but at 1.660 we will faced the strong day resistance. Sl should be at either 1.6440 or 1.6340. This gives little support as CCI does not strongly confirm the movement.
Trading Breakout Down
To have a good break out, pound must clear the daily EMA21 at 1.640. This is good from the 1 hour chart, that show the clearance from the EMA100 and EMA200 from the 1 hour chart. There is no news that currently support the up movement of the pound. TP will be good at 1.634 or at daily EMA55 at 1.6268., SL at 1.652.
Trade Rebound Down
Assuming strong resistance at daily resistance line at 1.660. We can placed a short at 1.656, TP at EMA21 at 1.640, SL at 1.663. What support this trade is that GfK triggered a morning and afternoon spike, but by GDP news, it retraces.
Trade Rebound Up
Again GfK bring the pound down and retrace to 1.64 and 1.634 region and good GDP news rebound the pound up. Long at 1.635, TP at 1.6440( 1hour EMA200), SL at 1.628 (daily EMA55 support).
So which choice?
Trading conservative, I will choose to trade Rebound Up. Long movement is not clearly evidence and it capped now at 1.655 and 1.660 region.
Trading Breakout Up is also good, but offer little profits again because of the resistance at 1.655 and 1.660.
Trading Rebound Down is no good, because pound look good going up with all the stocks market rallys.
Trading breakout Down need to clear daily EMA21 for clear direction, else it is a strong resistance.
Friday, July 31, 2009
Thursday, July 30, 2009
30 July 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
1200hrs SGT
The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.
Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.
But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.
GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.
WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.
Resistance is at 1.648.
Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.
1200hrs SGT
The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.
Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.
But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.
GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.
WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.
Resistance is at 1.648.
Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
29 July 2009
GU analysis:
The rally for the last weeks in the equity market has come to a slow down, after achieving high for 2009.
The pound hit 1.6557, but began to retrace at 1600hrs SGT all the way to 1.639. All the news were released only after 1800hrs SGT. The US consumer was out at 2200hrs SGT was worst off than expected, but did not pull the pound further.
Toady at 1630hrs SGT, UK Net lending to Individual will give another view of the recovery in the banking and business sector. The numbers is expected to raise, indicating that consumers are ready to borrow.
Likewise at 2030hrs SGT, US Durable Goods will give indication of a recovery by a better than expected results. More orders of mechinery shows the road to recovery.
The technicals look tricky. Cable is constraint within 1.652 and 1.64. It can break in both direction, giving the fact that the price has been sqeezing in this range for more than a week.
CCI has showed sign of consoldiating down. Support at EMA21 daily is at 1.638, while EMA55 which is next is at 1.6245.
Resistance is at 1.652 then 1.663.
Trend: Down. The news release may affect the movement, but general sentiment is down based on CCI.
The rally for the last weeks in the equity market has come to a slow down, after achieving high for 2009.
The pound hit 1.6557, but began to retrace at 1600hrs SGT all the way to 1.639. All the news were released only after 1800hrs SGT. The US consumer was out at 2200hrs SGT was worst off than expected, but did not pull the pound further.
Toady at 1630hrs SGT, UK Net lending to Individual will give another view of the recovery in the banking and business sector. The numbers is expected to raise, indicating that consumers are ready to borrow.
Likewise at 2030hrs SGT, US Durable Goods will give indication of a recovery by a better than expected results. More orders of mechinery shows the road to recovery.
The technicals look tricky. Cable is constraint within 1.652 and 1.64. It can break in both direction, giving the fact that the price has been sqeezing in this range for more than a week.
CCI has showed sign of consoldiating down. Support at EMA21 daily is at 1.638, while EMA55 which is next is at 1.6245.
Resistance is at 1.652 then 1.663.
Trend: Down. The news release may affect the movement, but general sentiment is down based on CCI.
Monday, July 27, 2009
27 July 2009
GU Analysis (1600 SGT)
The stock market did a rally with the Dow staying above 9000 on Friday closing. Asian market was almost blue, with the European market following likewise.
The first piece of news this week that could affect the pound will be US New Home Sales at 2200hrs SGT.
From the technical side, Pound is still supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, giving good support at 1.6395.
It did a morning rally towards 1.652 and now currently doing a retracement. From the 1 hour chart it did a 50% Fib retracement to 1.6453. The next level is at 1.6437. Support at EMA200 on the 1 hour chart is at 1.6428.
Looking at the trend, as long as the EMA21 support is not breech, pound has the potential to go higher. Its sister pair EUR/USD is also hitting 1.4250.
Resistance at 1.652, then 1.659
Trend: Up, provide, EMA21 at 1.64 is not broken.
The stock market did a rally with the Dow staying above 9000 on Friday closing. Asian market was almost blue, with the European market following likewise.
The first piece of news this week that could affect the pound will be US New Home Sales at 2200hrs SGT.
From the technical side, Pound is still supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, giving good support at 1.6395.
It did a morning rally towards 1.652 and now currently doing a retracement. From the 1 hour chart it did a 50% Fib retracement to 1.6453. The next level is at 1.6437. Support at EMA200 on the 1 hour chart is at 1.6428.
Looking at the trend, as long as the EMA21 support is not breech, pound has the potential to go higher. Its sister pair EUR/USD is also hitting 1.4250.
Resistance at 1.652, then 1.659
Trend: Up, provide, EMA21 at 1.64 is not broken.
Friday, July 24, 2009
24 July 2009
GU analysis:
Both Dow Jones and S&P500 continue their rally with better than expected earnings. This lead to a continued weakness in USD and YEN.
The pound began its climb with the better than expected results of its retail sales. It further took advantage during US market with better homes sales (jumping 3.6%) and the rally in the equity market. It hit day high of 1.6586.
Today we have one very important news UK GDP released at 1630SGT. The most recent indicators have pointed UK with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement. However, Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the GDP report would almost certainly be negative.
From the daily chart, sterling did a double top formation. The 1 hour chart showed a dispersion into EMA21. From the 30min chart, it has a head and shoulder formation. From its high yesterday, sterling has retraced below from where it has broken out at 1.652, suggesting that 1.652 failed to form a support for sterling to climb higher.
Support is at 1.638, which happen to be EMA200 for the 1 hour chart and the EMA21 for the daily chart. This will be one critical support before breking lower to 1.620.
The only positive technical is that CCI has not reversed. Resistance is at 1.663, provided it clears yester high at 1.658.
Trend: down, unless supported by 1.638
Both Dow Jones and S&P500 continue their rally with better than expected earnings. This lead to a continued weakness in USD and YEN.
The pound began its climb with the better than expected results of its retail sales. It further took advantage during US market with better homes sales (jumping 3.6%) and the rally in the equity market. It hit day high of 1.6586.
Today we have one very important news UK GDP released at 1630SGT. The most recent indicators have pointed UK with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement. However, Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the GDP report would almost certainly be negative.
From the daily chart, sterling did a double top formation. The 1 hour chart showed a dispersion into EMA21. From the 30min chart, it has a head and shoulder formation. From its high yesterday, sterling has retraced below from where it has broken out at 1.652, suggesting that 1.652 failed to form a support for sterling to climb higher.
Support is at 1.638, which happen to be EMA200 for the 1 hour chart and the EMA21 for the daily chart. This will be one critical support before breking lower to 1.620.
The only positive technical is that CCI has not reversed. Resistance is at 1.663, provided it clears yester high at 1.658.
Trend: down, unless supported by 1.638
Thursday, July 23, 2009
23 July 2009
GBPUSD Analysis:
The stock market is still the barometer for risk.
When the U.S. stock market does well, forex traders seem more willing to take riskier, higher-yielding trades---which tends to send the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) lower.
When the U.S. stock market does poorly, forex traders seem more likely to take safer, lower-yielding trades---which tends to send the USD and the JPY higher.
In both Asis and Europe market, the dollar was strengthening all day. It remained firm throughout and during the testimony of Bernanke before the Financial Services committee.
Once Ben’s testimony concluded, the Dollar weakened. DOW also surged in early trading, which helped to erase almost all of the Dollar’s gains.
The pound retraced after reaching high of 1.6505.
Today, the concerned is whether the UK economic recovery is stalling and that the U.K. doesn’t have enough money to provide anymore stimulus without blowing out the budget. It will be a wait and see situation until the preliminary Second Quarter GDP number is released on Friday.
At the technical side, 1.652 is a strong resistance, else it would render the pound to range between 1.652 and 1.632.
Breaking 1.652 will bring the pound to the next high at 1.663.
Breaking 1.632 will bring the pound lower to 1.620.
But my expectation for today is that pound will attempt 1.652 because of the Retatil Sales report at 1630SGT. It fell last time by 0.6%, and is predicted to rise by 0.4%.
At 2200SGT, the US will release its Existing Homes Sales.
Trend: ??
The stock market is still the barometer for risk.
When the U.S. stock market does well, forex traders seem more willing to take riskier, higher-yielding trades---which tends to send the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) lower.
When the U.S. stock market does poorly, forex traders seem more likely to take safer, lower-yielding trades---which tends to send the USD and the JPY higher.
In both Asis and Europe market, the dollar was strengthening all day. It remained firm throughout and during the testimony of Bernanke before the Financial Services committee.
Once Ben’s testimony concluded, the Dollar weakened. DOW also surged in early trading, which helped to erase almost all of the Dollar’s gains.
The pound retraced after reaching high of 1.6505.
Today, the concerned is whether the UK economic recovery is stalling and that the U.K. doesn’t have enough money to provide anymore stimulus without blowing out the budget. It will be a wait and see situation until the preliminary Second Quarter GDP number is released on Friday.
At the technical side, 1.652 is a strong resistance, else it would render the pound to range between 1.652 and 1.632.
Breaking 1.652 will bring the pound to the next high at 1.663.
Breaking 1.632 will bring the pound lower to 1.620.
But my expectation for today is that pound will attempt 1.652 because of the Retatil Sales report at 1630SGT. It fell last time by 0.6%, and is predicted to rise by 0.4%.
At 2200SGT, the US will release its Existing Homes Sales.
Trend: ??
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
22 July 2009
GU Analysis:
It seems that the flight to safety is back. Both the dollar and the yen strengthen against the majors.
Last night Federal Reserve chairman speech that the danger of a weak economy is still lurking around. Employment will be going to be weak through 2011 and that will minus off consumer confidence. Stocks raises though the better than expected news from Apple, but not AMD and Caterpillar. The better forecast by Caterpillar boost the demand for crude and this will take advantage of a weaker dollar.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry publishes this monthly indicator on Wednesday at 1800SGT. This indicator has brought bad news since the beginning of the year. It has always missed the target, and also remained negative (showing contraction) for over a year. Current hopes aren’t so good for the British manufacturing sector - the index is expected to improve only slightly - from -51 to -46. Only a very good surprise will shake the Pound after the release
Sterling is down from 1.65 and back to support at EMA200 on the hour chart at 1.64. The daily support at EMA21 is at 1.634 and is not broken yet.
Resistance is at 1.65 then 1.657. Support lies at 1.637 then 1.632.
Trend: Down
It seems that the flight to safety is back. Both the dollar and the yen strengthen against the majors.
Last night Federal Reserve chairman speech that the danger of a weak economy is still lurking around. Employment will be going to be weak through 2011 and that will minus off consumer confidence. Stocks raises though the better than expected news from Apple, but not AMD and Caterpillar. The better forecast by Caterpillar boost the demand for crude and this will take advantage of a weaker dollar.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry publishes this monthly indicator on Wednesday at 1800SGT. This indicator has brought bad news since the beginning of the year. It has always missed the target, and also remained negative (showing contraction) for over a year. Current hopes aren’t so good for the British manufacturing sector - the index is expected to improve only slightly - from -51 to -46. Only a very good surprise will shake the Pound after the release
Sterling is down from 1.65 and back to support at EMA200 on the hour chart at 1.64. The daily support at EMA21 is at 1.634 and is not broken yet.
Resistance is at 1.65 then 1.657. Support lies at 1.637 then 1.632.
Trend: Down
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
21 July 2009
GU Analysis:
GBPUSD did a breakout of 1.64 yesterday, staying off and rebound off the daily EMA21. It hit high of 1.6557.
The Dow rally again for the 6th week based on good news from CIT, plus better than expected earnings report. Also, the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent in June, more than the 0.4 percent forecast. It was the third straight month of gains, showing sign of bottoming out.
Today and this week there will be more earnings report from Apple, AMD, Texas Instrument, Mircosoft, Toyota etc. These better than expected result will give Dow a further boost and subsequently the abandament of USD.
Looking at the technical chart in 1 hour, there will be some retracement from 1.6557. The support is at 1.6467/1.6446 region. The next level is 1.632.
Resistance is at 1.6633, then 1.675.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement and beware of EMA21 daily support.
GBPUSD did a breakout of 1.64 yesterday, staying off and rebound off the daily EMA21. It hit high of 1.6557.
The Dow rally again for the 6th week based on good news from CIT, plus better than expected earnings report. Also, the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.7 percent in June, more than the 0.4 percent forecast. It was the third straight month of gains, showing sign of bottoming out.
Today and this week there will be more earnings report from Apple, AMD, Texas Instrument, Mircosoft, Toyota etc. These better than expected result will give Dow a further boost and subsequently the abandament of USD.
Looking at the technical chart in 1 hour, there will be some retracement from 1.6557. The support is at 1.6467/1.6446 region. The next level is 1.632.
Resistance is at 1.6633, then 1.675.
Trend: Up, but expect retracement and beware of EMA21 daily support.
Monday, July 20, 2009
20 July 2009
GU Analysis:
Looking at the technical chart for last week, cable has been supported by EMA21 at 1.632. Direction is still not clear from the technical point of view. CCI is up, but is captured in the over bought position, meaning that it can reverse down or it could run higher.
Today, at 1630SGT, UK Prelim M4 Money Supply. This may not have a strong impact on the pound, but nevertheless show sign of the economy recovery out of the credit crunch - are the banks lending as much again?
More importantly is the release of the minutes from the Bank of England's July 9 meeting at 1630 SGT on Wednesday and the 1630 SGT advanced reading of Q2 GDP for the UK on Thursday. Both will show further sign of how UK economy is really performing.
As such, it is again all technical for today. Morning saw the attempt to break 1.64, but failed. At the 1 hour chart, all the EMAs are concentrated at around 1.634 and 1.632. This found a good support.
Resistance is at 1.64, then 1.648, then 1.656.
Support is at 1.632, 1.625, then 1.618.
Trend: up, provided support retained at 1.632
Looking at the technical chart for last week, cable has been supported by EMA21 at 1.632. Direction is still not clear from the technical point of view. CCI is up, but is captured in the over bought position, meaning that it can reverse down or it could run higher.
Today, at 1630SGT, UK Prelim M4 Money Supply. This may not have a strong impact on the pound, but nevertheless show sign of the economy recovery out of the credit crunch - are the banks lending as much again?
More importantly is the release of the minutes from the Bank of England's July 9 meeting at 1630 SGT on Wednesday and the 1630 SGT advanced reading of Q2 GDP for the UK on Thursday. Both will show further sign of how UK economy is really performing.
As such, it is again all technical for today. Morning saw the attempt to break 1.64, but failed. At the 1 hour chart, all the EMAs are concentrated at around 1.634 and 1.632. This found a good support.
Resistance is at 1.64, then 1.648, then 1.656.
Support is at 1.632, 1.625, then 1.618.
Trend: up, provided support retained at 1.632
Thursday, July 16, 2009
16 July 2009
GU Analysis
All the better than expected UK and US resuslts had sent market sentiments on a high note. The FSTE rose 2.5%, more than 100 points, while the DOW rose 3% gaining more than 250 points.
GU broke the 1.632 barrier and hit the peak of 1.646 yesterday. In terms of support, the 1-hour chart is supported at the strong EMA200. The pound did a retracement this morning, back to 1.638.
Today there is no major news from the UK. So it is all technical in the Europe market. Focus will be on the US unemployment claims.
From the technical point of view, support is at EMA200 on the daily chart at 1.632. A rebound may help the pound to hit immediate target of 1.65. On the down side if the support is broken, the next support is at 1.62.
Trend: up, provided support is maintained at 1.632.
All the better than expected UK and US resuslts had sent market sentiments on a high note. The FSTE rose 2.5%, more than 100 points, while the DOW rose 3% gaining more than 250 points.
GU broke the 1.632 barrier and hit the peak of 1.646 yesterday. In terms of support, the 1-hour chart is supported at the strong EMA200. The pound did a retracement this morning, back to 1.638.
Today there is no major news from the UK. So it is all technical in the Europe market. Focus will be on the US unemployment claims.
From the technical point of view, support is at EMA200 on the daily chart at 1.632. A rebound may help the pound to hit immediate target of 1.65. On the down side if the support is broken, the next support is at 1.62.
Trend: up, provided support is maintained at 1.632.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
14 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
For most of the day, the cable was hitting the down hill. The reversal took place just before the US opening with no news in the forecast..
This scenario changed when analyst Meredith Whitney upgraded her recommendation in the Goldman Sachs Group from neutral to buy and made other bullish comments regarding the banking sector. Her comments were the surprise event that equity and commodity markets were looking for given the recent downtrend and oversold status. This subsequent lead to a spike in the DOW and followed through the stocks and equity market. The shift in sentiment changed from bullish Dollar to bearish Dollar.
This morning, the UK market housing survey added another fuel for the cable to climb higher.
Today, the UK will be reporting CPI at 1630 SGT. Inflation looks set to fall below the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost two years in June. If so, it may bring the cable higher.
At the US opening, retail news at 2030hrs may report numbers that the economy is still hurting. If so, this may put a stop for the upward momentum.
Technically, the pound is still constraints within 1.632, then 1.641. CCI look good for a upward trend, but unless the pound strong break through 1.641, then resistance will become support.
In the meanwhile, support is at 1.612, then 1.605.
Trend: Up, but limited by 1.641.
For most of the day, the cable was hitting the down hill. The reversal took place just before the US opening with no news in the forecast..
This scenario changed when analyst Meredith Whitney upgraded her recommendation in the Goldman Sachs Group from neutral to buy and made other bullish comments regarding the banking sector. Her comments were the surprise event that equity and commodity markets were looking for given the recent downtrend and oversold status. This subsequent lead to a spike in the DOW and followed through the stocks and equity market. The shift in sentiment changed from bullish Dollar to bearish Dollar.
This morning, the UK market housing survey added another fuel for the cable to climb higher.
Today, the UK will be reporting CPI at 1630 SGT. Inflation looks set to fall below the Bank of England's target for the first time in almost two years in June. If so, it may bring the cable higher.
At the US opening, retail news at 2030hrs may report numbers that the economy is still hurting. If so, this may put a stop for the upward momentum.
Technically, the pound is still constraints within 1.632, then 1.641. CCI look good for a upward trend, but unless the pound strong break through 1.641, then resistance will become support.
In the meanwhile, support is at 1.612, then 1.605.
Trend: Up, but limited by 1.641.
Monday, July 13, 2009
13 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
With no major news in the lineup, it will be all technicals.
The squeeze at the daily chart has close up with EMA21 and EMA55 limiting at 1.632 and 1.608.
There are again no clear direction from the CCI, swing from a up to a down.
First support is at 1.614 for a potential rebound to 1.632. If breakout happen, support is at 1.598. On the other side, resistance is at 1.625, followed by 1.632, then 1.6405.
Trend: ?
With no major news in the lineup, it will be all technicals.
The squeeze at the daily chart has close up with EMA21 and EMA55 limiting at 1.632 and 1.608.
There are again no clear direction from the CCI, swing from a up to a down.
First support is at 1.614 for a potential rebound to 1.632. If breakout happen, support is at 1.598. On the other side, resistance is at 1.625, followed by 1.632, then 1.6405.
Trend: ?
Thursday, July 09, 2009
9 July 2009
GU Analysis:
U.K. house prices unexpectedly fell in June, a sign Britain has yet to shake off the property slump as unemployment increases, a report by Halifax showed. Home values declined 0.5 percent to an average of 157,713 pounds ($253,400), after jumping 2.6 percent in the previous month, the division of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said in a statement today.
In the US, there was no mjor news. Stocks finished mostly lower after zigzagging for much of the day Wednesday. A mixed outlook on the economy from the International Monetary Fund and falling commodity prices added to the downbeat mood.
GU form a good doji ranging from 1.6138 and 1.5984, strongly supported at EMA55 on the daily chart.
Today, at 1700SGT, The Bank of England is expected to ask the British government for the authority to pump another 25 billion pounds ($40 billion) into the financial system at the end of its two-day monthly meeting Thursday. The central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged meanwhile at a record low 0.5 per cent.
The effect shows that UK ecnonomy is still recovering and if so, may bring the pound lower.
On the support we, have the next big one at 1.577. But to reach this line today may not be quite possible. Given half way mark, it will be 1.59.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.628, clearing this may pave way for Gu to go higher.
Trend: down.
U.K. house prices unexpectedly fell in June, a sign Britain has yet to shake off the property slump as unemployment increases, a report by Halifax showed. Home values declined 0.5 percent to an average of 157,713 pounds ($253,400), after jumping 2.6 percent in the previous month, the division of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said in a statement today.
In the US, there was no mjor news. Stocks finished mostly lower after zigzagging for much of the day Wednesday. A mixed outlook on the economy from the International Monetary Fund and falling commodity prices added to the downbeat mood.
GU form a good doji ranging from 1.6138 and 1.5984, strongly supported at EMA55 on the daily chart.
Today, at 1700SGT, The Bank of England is expected to ask the British government for the authority to pump another 25 billion pounds ($40 billion) into the financial system at the end of its two-day monthly meeting Thursday. The central bank's monetary policy committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged meanwhile at a record low 0.5 per cent.
The effect shows that UK ecnonomy is still recovering and if so, may bring the pound lower.
On the support we, have the next big one at 1.577. But to reach this line today may not be quite possible. Given half way mark, it will be 1.59.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.628, clearing this may pave way for Gu to go higher.
Trend: down.
Wednesday, July 08, 2009
8 Jul 2009
GU Analysis
Sterling fell against the dollar for a fourth day in its longest stretch of declines since April after the British Chambers of Commerce recommended that the Bank of England expand its asset-purchase program to revive the economy.
This morning, however, the National Consumer Confidence rose above 50points.
Today the G8 will meet, as well as UK Halifax HPI at 1600SGT.
Pound fell overnight and landed at support at 1.611, which is also the daily EMA55. There are still no sign of reversal from CCI. This suggest the possibility for GU to land lower at EMA100/ EMA200 at 1.576. Alternatively, a rebound is possible to regain level at 1.632 (EMA21).
Trend: Up, unless support broke at 1.60.
Sterling fell against the dollar for a fourth day in its longest stretch of declines since April after the British Chambers of Commerce recommended that the Bank of England expand its asset-purchase program to revive the economy.
This morning, however, the National Consumer Confidence rose above 50points.
Today the G8 will meet, as well as UK Halifax HPI at 1600SGT.
Pound fell overnight and landed at support at 1.611, which is also the daily EMA55. There are still no sign of reversal from CCI. This suggest the possibility for GU to land lower at EMA100/ EMA200 at 1.576. Alternatively, a rebound is possible to regain level at 1.632 (EMA21).
Trend: Up, unless support broke at 1.60.
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
7 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The day was actually quiet from a fundamental perspective, with only the US ISM non-manufacturing was released at 2200SGT and the index rose more than anticipated to 47.0 in June from 44.0. ISM index held below 50 - the point of neutrality for the index - for the ninth straight month, signaling a continued contraction, though at a slower pace.
GU went down to hit EMA21 at 1.61 during the US trade session. However, a bounce in stocks that pushed the DOW and S&P 500 into positive territory by the market close. GU rebound to 1.627 this morning and regain much losses.
Today, output by industrial producers in the UK is forecasted to have risen for the second straight month in May at a rate of 0.2 percent, which may help to push the annual rate of growth up to -11.3 percent from -12.3 percent. Other measures of activity in the sector, such as manufacturing PMI, have risen steadily between March and June, but since the index has held below 50 since May 2008, the results simply suggest that the contraction in the sector has slowed, rather than abated completely. As a result, there are some downside risks for this upcoming release of industrial production, and a surprise month-over-month decline could weigh on the British pound upon release. The news will be released at 1630SGT.
Based on the first leg down from 1.6745 to 1.6095, a fib 50% retracement will be to 1.64175. That incidentally is the rebound up above the EMA21 on the daily chart. Therefore this 1.642 will be a good resistance, before the next round of direction decision.
Support still at EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.612.
Trend:Up due to retracement, but a possible swing towards EMA21 is also possible.
The day was actually quiet from a fundamental perspective, with only the US ISM non-manufacturing was released at 2200SGT and the index rose more than anticipated to 47.0 in June from 44.0. ISM index held below 50 - the point of neutrality for the index - for the ninth straight month, signaling a continued contraction, though at a slower pace.
GU went down to hit EMA21 at 1.61 during the US trade session. However, a bounce in stocks that pushed the DOW and S&P 500 into positive territory by the market close. GU rebound to 1.627 this morning and regain much losses.
Today, output by industrial producers in the UK is forecasted to have risen for the second straight month in May at a rate of 0.2 percent, which may help to push the annual rate of growth up to -11.3 percent from -12.3 percent. Other measures of activity in the sector, such as manufacturing PMI, have risen steadily between March and June, but since the index has held below 50 since May 2008, the results simply suggest that the contraction in the sector has slowed, rather than abated completely. As a result, there are some downside risks for this upcoming release of industrial production, and a surprise month-over-month decline could weigh on the British pound upon release. The news will be released at 1630SGT.
Based on the first leg down from 1.6745 to 1.6095, a fib 50% retracement will be to 1.64175. That incidentally is the rebound up above the EMA21 on the daily chart. Therefore this 1.642 will be a good resistance, before the next round of direction decision.
Support still at EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.612.
Trend:Up due to retracement, but a possible swing towards EMA21 is also possible.
Monday, July 06, 2009
6 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The pound posted its first weekly decline against the dollar in a month after worse-than-expected reports on U.K. services and gross domestic product signaled the economic recovery may be faltering.
Manufacturing, consumer confidence and inflation data this week will provide insights into the state of the U.K. economy and the scope of a recovery. Slower output growth and declining prices will add to the bearish outlook that is beginning to form, while a increase in consume confidence will give hope that a return of domestic growth is around the corner. Additionally, the Visible Trade Balance report will show us that state of demand for British goods.
There is no major UK news today and that left only the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 2200 SGT. Looking ahead to Monday, data may show that conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - improved somewhat in June as the Institute for Supply Management index is estimated to rise to 46.0 from 44.0. However, consumer confidence has shown emerging pessimism, primarily on the economic outlook, as the Conference Board’s measure surprisingly fell to 49.3 in June from 54.8. Since risk trends have proven to be the greater driver of price action in the forex markets, a weaker than expected result could trigger flight-to-quality and thus, gains for the US dollar.
From the technical point of view, at the daily chart, pound has broke below the daily EMA21. If the direction does not reverse, it would gain support at EMA55 at 1.61. Resistance is at 1.6395.
Trend: Down, watch out for PMI news and that may set direction for the pound.
The pound posted its first weekly decline against the dollar in a month after worse-than-expected reports on U.K. services and gross domestic product signaled the economic recovery may be faltering.
Manufacturing, consumer confidence and inflation data this week will provide insights into the state of the U.K. economy and the scope of a recovery. Slower output growth and declining prices will add to the bearish outlook that is beginning to form, while a increase in consume confidence will give hope that a return of domestic growth is around the corner. Additionally, the Visible Trade Balance report will show us that state of demand for British goods.
There is no major UK news today and that left only the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 2200 SGT. Looking ahead to Monday, data may show that conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - improved somewhat in June as the Institute for Supply Management index is estimated to rise to 46.0 from 44.0. However, consumer confidence has shown emerging pessimism, primarily on the economic outlook, as the Conference Board’s measure surprisingly fell to 49.3 in June from 54.8. Since risk trends have proven to be the greater driver of price action in the forex markets, a weaker than expected result could trigger flight-to-quality and thus, gains for the US dollar.
From the technical point of view, at the daily chart, pound has broke below the daily EMA21. If the direction does not reverse, it would gain support at EMA55 at 1.61. Resistance is at 1.6395.
Trend: Down, watch out for PMI news and that may set direction for the pound.
Friday, July 03, 2009
3 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
Clear indications from this morning’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that the pace of job losses had accelerated, rather than slowed, was the driver of price action for the markets. Dollar rallied against a basket of currencies except Japanese yen after the key monthly U.S. employment report showed employers shed 467,000 jobs in June, more than consensus forecast of 363,000 cut, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, the highest since 1983, renewing widespread concerns over the pace of the economic recovery’s pace.DOW tumbled more than 200 points and that may triggered a round of flight to safety on the dollars and the yen.
Today will be a rest day in US (Independence Day). So the only major new will be in the UK at 1630 SGT on service PMI. Here, the purchasing managers show a more positive attitude in the survey. Services PMI surprised last month by jumping above the 50 line, hitting 51.7. Should this happen, the pound may rallied to curd yesterday weakness.
GU is now supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, bring the next support to 1.62. It is still hanging there with no clear direction of going down. But breaking the support at 1.60 will be a good indicator of a down trend. CCI is down but has no clear indication.
Resistance is at 1.65 and 1.662
Trend: Down, but may rebound at support at 1.62, keeping the pound in the trading range of 1.62 and 1.67
Clear indications from this morning’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that the pace of job losses had accelerated, rather than slowed, was the driver of price action for the markets. Dollar rallied against a basket of currencies except Japanese yen after the key monthly U.S. employment report showed employers shed 467,000 jobs in June, more than consensus forecast of 363,000 cut, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, the highest since 1983, renewing widespread concerns over the pace of the economic recovery’s pace.DOW tumbled more than 200 points and that may triggered a round of flight to safety on the dollars and the yen.
Today will be a rest day in US (Independence Day). So the only major new will be in the UK at 1630 SGT on service PMI. Here, the purchasing managers show a more positive attitude in the survey. Services PMI surprised last month by jumping above the 50 line, hitting 51.7. Should this happen, the pound may rallied to curd yesterday weakness.
GU is now supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, bring the next support to 1.62. It is still hanging there with no clear direction of going down. But breaking the support at 1.60 will be a good indicator of a down trend. CCI is down but has no clear indication.
Resistance is at 1.65 and 1.662
Trend: Down, but may rebound at support at 1.62, keeping the pound in the trading range of 1.62 and 1.67
Thursday, July 02, 2009
2 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The economic calendar had a few important releases out of UK, with PMI coming out better than expected and also the very important ADP report out of US which came out worse than estimated.
Today, Non-Farm Payrolls, the king of forex cannot be avoided. This super-major American figure shakes the whole world. After a surprise last time, when “only” 345K jobs were lost, NFP is predicted to take one step backwords and show a fall of 375K jobs. Strong movements are expected also in the British pound. At 20:30 SGT.
Pound still hovers around 1.655 and 1.64, in between the EMA200 line on the 1 hour chart. This suggest any break in this region goes to the resistance at 1.67 and support at 1.62.
1.64 looked like a strong support at EMA21 on the daily chart. It means that unlikely for pound to break, but if it does so, it could go much lower than 1.62 to 1.612.
Trend: up, ADP June non farm payrolls was reported at -473k versus a downwardly revised -485k in May. A reading of -393k was expected for the June ADP report. The ADP report suggests that Thursday's US nonfarm payroll report is likely to show little improvement. If that is so, then pound will continue to move up.
The economic calendar had a few important releases out of UK, with PMI coming out better than expected and also the very important ADP report out of US which came out worse than estimated.
Today, Non-Farm Payrolls, the king of forex cannot be avoided. This super-major American figure shakes the whole world. After a surprise last time, when “only” 345K jobs were lost, NFP is predicted to take one step backwords and show a fall of 375K jobs. Strong movements are expected also in the British pound. At 20:30 SGT.
Pound still hovers around 1.655 and 1.64, in between the EMA200 line on the 1 hour chart. This suggest any break in this region goes to the resistance at 1.67 and support at 1.62.
1.64 looked like a strong support at EMA21 on the daily chart. It means that unlikely for pound to break, but if it does so, it could go much lower than 1.62 to 1.612.
Trend: up, ADP June non farm payrolls was reported at -473k versus a downwardly revised -485k in May. A reading of -393k was expected for the June ADP report. The ADP report suggests that Thursday's US nonfarm payroll report is likely to show little improvement. If that is so, then pound will continue to move up.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
1 Jul 2009
GU Analysis:
The better than expected result in HPI pushed the pound to over 1.67, hitting high at 1.674 before the GDP and current supply hit back to negative ground to 1.642.
The US side provide no better stimulus for the pound to move lower, as U.S. stocks fell, limiting the biggest quarterly advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1998, after consumer confidence unexpectedly slid and delinquencies on the least-risky mortgages more than doubled.
Today at 1630 SGT, Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing Manager’s Index shows future expectations for the manufacturing sector. A figure below 50 means contraction. The figure has been below 50 for over a year, but has advanced in the last three months. Also now, it’s predicted to rise from 45.4 to 46.3. This will surely shake the Pound.
In the US, Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week. The jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 percent, the highest level in 26 years, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be the smallest since November 2008. A survey of purchasing managers may show manufacturing shrank at the mildest pace in 10 months.
Looking at the technicals, strong support is at 1.6405. Breaking this will bring it to 1.624.
From the 1 hour chart point, resistance is at 1.654, breaking this will bring it back to 1.67.
Trend: Up, but expect disruption at 1630hrs if the Manfacturing PMI turn sour.
The better than expected result in HPI pushed the pound to over 1.67, hitting high at 1.674 before the GDP and current supply hit back to negative ground to 1.642.
The US side provide no better stimulus for the pound to move lower, as U.S. stocks fell, limiting the biggest quarterly advance for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1998, after consumer confidence unexpectedly slid and delinquencies on the least-risky mortgages more than doubled.
Today at 1630 SGT, Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing Manager’s Index shows future expectations for the manufacturing sector. A figure below 50 means contraction. The figure has been below 50 for over a year, but has advanced in the last three months. Also now, it’s predicted to rise from 45.4 to 46.3. This will surely shake the Pound.
In the US, Unemployment in the U.S. probably rose at a slower pace and the manufacturing slump eased this month as evidence mounted that the end of recession is in view, economists said before reports this week. The jobless rate rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 percent, the highest level in 26 years, according to the median of 58 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be the smallest since November 2008. A survey of purchasing managers may show manufacturing shrank at the mildest pace in 10 months.
Looking at the technicals, strong support is at 1.6405. Breaking this will bring it to 1.624.
From the 1 hour chart point, resistance is at 1.654, breaking this will bring it back to 1.67.
Trend: Up, but expect disruption at 1630hrs if the Manfacturing PMI turn sour.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)