GBP/USD Analysis:
Today UK is having a bank holiday. So it is all technical for today.
Support continue to be at 1.621 region. A good resistance was built up at 1.64. A likely performance for today will be for the pound to bound between this two price.
Overall for today, CCI is moving side, strongly support a squeeze. The hour chart further confirm the squeeze for the price range to be within 1.622 and 1.634.
So if you are trading long, be sure to let go at 1.620 and for short at 1.64 for short term trade today.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
28 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Pound continue to plunge throughout European trading and US trading period. The down was largely caused by UK Prelim Business Investment, which was reported at a much lower value.
But, without news, there was a sudden spike at 0200hrs to 0230hrs SGT, bringing the pound back to near 1.63 from a low of 1.616.
This morning, UK Consumer Confidence opened with a slight less than expected result, but caused not much impact.
All eyes will be on UK Revised GDP at 1630hrs SGT. Economists don’t expect a change from the initial read of a 0.8% contraction. A better result will help the beaten Pound.
The spike brought the pound back a support level of 1.62. Now it is resisted by 1.63. The 1 hour chart showed WMA5 between EMA55 and EMA100, meaning that if the price action goes up above EMA100, most likely the pound will stop around 1.640. Breaking 1.64 will help move the pound higher.
On the short, the level of support has moved up to 1.625, the next level is still 1.612.
Trend: Up.
Morning trading will be thin, most likely range within 1.64 and 1.62. Either break in these level gives the pound a direction to follow and continue. CCI look up, so if pound do break 1.633, it will be good to take a long towards 1.64 and wait for a further breakout up. GDP news may disrupt the movement up, so depends on when the breakout occur.
Watch the daily WMA5. If it break below EMA100, it will be all short towards 1.61, then 1.60
For those whose long position is taking profit, you may want to TP around 1.638 or for more conservative, close the trade now.
Pound continue to plunge throughout European trading and US trading period. The down was largely caused by UK Prelim Business Investment, which was reported at a much lower value.
But, without news, there was a sudden spike at 0200hrs to 0230hrs SGT, bringing the pound back to near 1.63 from a low of 1.616.
This morning, UK Consumer Confidence opened with a slight less than expected result, but caused not much impact.
All eyes will be on UK Revised GDP at 1630hrs SGT. Economists don’t expect a change from the initial read of a 0.8% contraction. A better result will help the beaten Pound.
The spike brought the pound back a support level of 1.62. Now it is resisted by 1.63. The 1 hour chart showed WMA5 between EMA55 and EMA100, meaning that if the price action goes up above EMA100, most likely the pound will stop around 1.640. Breaking 1.64 will help move the pound higher.
On the short, the level of support has moved up to 1.625, the next level is still 1.612.
Trend: Up.
Morning trading will be thin, most likely range within 1.64 and 1.62. Either break in these level gives the pound a direction to follow and continue. CCI look up, so if pound do break 1.633, it will be good to take a long towards 1.64 and wait for a further breakout up. GDP news may disrupt the movement up, so depends on when the breakout occur.
Watch the daily WMA5. If it break below EMA100, it will be all short towards 1.61, then 1.60
For those whose long position is taking profit, you may want to TP around 1.638 or for more conservative, close the trade now.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
27 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound was heavily sold yesterday. Eur German brought good news in their business climate, while the US has good news in their durable goods sale and new home sales.
There look clearly that the USD is strengthening after weeks of shorting.
Today at 1400hrs SGT the first in the week on UK major new is Nationwide HPI. A reflection on housing inflation, it is a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. According, the expected is better than forecast. But whether this piece of news can do the reverse for the pound is not clear.
WMA5 went low and pass EMA55, heading towards EMA100. The price was supported by EMA100 at 1.617 and possible for it to go down to 1.612. WMA5 has not broke EMA100, so it is whether pound will continue to push down towards EMA200 at 1.602 or rebound.
If it rebound, resistance is at 1.6405, then 1.654
Trend: Expect the down to continue. But as for today, they may be some halt as pound is near EMA100. Some consolidation is expected. Looking at the candle stick formation, after 3 black crows, yes the trend is down, but also expect a momentarily up for today before and big down or..
For those who hold a long at 1.623 yesterday, continue to hold, but remembered to let go at 1.612. You may set your TP at around 1.635 to 1.642.
If price go down below 1.612, it will be a good short to 1.602 to 1.6595
The pound was heavily sold yesterday. Eur German brought good news in their business climate, while the US has good news in their durable goods sale and new home sales.
There look clearly that the USD is strengthening after weeks of shorting.
Today at 1400hrs SGT the first in the week on UK major new is Nationwide HPI. A reflection on housing inflation, it is a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. According, the expected is better than forecast. But whether this piece of news can do the reverse for the pound is not clear.
WMA5 went low and pass EMA55, heading towards EMA100. The price was supported by EMA100 at 1.617 and possible for it to go down to 1.612. WMA5 has not broke EMA100, so it is whether pound will continue to push down towards EMA200 at 1.602 or rebound.
If it rebound, resistance is at 1.6405, then 1.654
Trend: Expect the down to continue. But as for today, they may be some halt as pound is near EMA100. Some consolidation is expected. Looking at the candle stick formation, after 3 black crows, yes the trend is down, but also expect a momentarily up for today before and big down or..
For those who hold a long at 1.623 yesterday, continue to hold, but remembered to let go at 1.612. You may set your TP at around 1.635 to 1.642.
If price go down below 1.612, it will be a good short to 1.602 to 1.6595
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
26 Aug 2009
I am away for a getaway with my wife, praying for each other and for the family.
GU Analysis:
All the good news, from the way the Dow broke 9500 to US confidence. The Eur gain as both France and German report better than expected recovery in their economy.
BUT it seemed that GBP has failed to catch the same momentum. Even with yesterday BBA Mortgage Approvals reported more than expected, only spike the pound up to 1.644 and retun all the way to 1.632.
It will be a quiet day without UK news. But German will be expected to report better than expected Business Climate. Likewise in the US we may be further expecting good news from Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales at 2030hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT respectively.
BUT will it return the pound back to 1.64?
Looking at the technical, pound has its WMA5, from the daily chart, broke through EMA55. It may be heading towards EMA100 at 1.623. CCI is also going down.
I am expecting another black crow to form today hitting EMA100, before any possible rebound.
Support is at EMA100 at 1.623, then 1.612, then EMA200 at 1.602
Resistance is at 1.643, then 1.6506.
Trend: Down, following a downside momentum.
Because pound is in a state of dispersion, traders will tend to put in in a side line, meaning that there is no direct co relation between news and technical, it is safer to just watch and see.
A good way to play today is to wait and catch a up for a possible rebound at 1.623 and if it break 1.612, abandon long to go short towards 1.602.
If by morning and early afternoon it start to go up, the most it can hit is 1.64. If it break 1.643, catch it long to 1.65.
GU Analysis:
All the good news, from the way the Dow broke 9500 to US confidence. The Eur gain as both France and German report better than expected recovery in their economy.
BUT it seemed that GBP has failed to catch the same momentum. Even with yesterday BBA Mortgage Approvals reported more than expected, only spike the pound up to 1.644 and retun all the way to 1.632.
It will be a quiet day without UK news. But German will be expected to report better than expected Business Climate. Likewise in the US we may be further expecting good news from Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales at 2030hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT respectively.
BUT will it return the pound back to 1.64?
Looking at the technical, pound has its WMA5, from the daily chart, broke through EMA55. It may be heading towards EMA100 at 1.623. CCI is also going down.
I am expecting another black crow to form today hitting EMA100, before any possible rebound.
Support is at EMA100 at 1.623, then 1.612, then EMA200 at 1.602
Resistance is at 1.643, then 1.6506.
Trend: Down, following a downside momentum.
Because pound is in a state of dispersion, traders will tend to put in in a side line, meaning that there is no direct co relation between news and technical, it is safer to just watch and see.
A good way to play today is to wait and catch a up for a possible rebound at 1.623 and if it break 1.612, abandon long to go short towards 1.602.
If by morning and early afternoon it start to go up, the most it can hit is 1.64. If it break 1.643, catch it long to 1.65.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
18 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
AN ugly start of the week with Asia, Europe and US market all recorded selling pressure in their equity market. With such an happening, traders then to flock back to the USD and the yen. As a result, throughout the day was a selling for the pound and the Eur.
Today at 1630hrsSGT, UK will announced CPI, which is predicted to slow down from 1.6% to 1.5%.
On the technicals, CCI is on the way down with no sign of reversal yet. Pound hit EMA55 at support yesterday, hitting a low at 1.628.
There may be some retracement today with resistance at 1.648/1.65 region. The next hight will be 1.654. Breakout thorugh 1.654 may signify pound back in a bullish state, but in the meanwhile is about shorting.
Support may easily break at EMA55 at 1.630, meaning pound will go lower towards 1.620 and potentially 1.60 region.
Trend: Down with lack of better than expected news. Some form of retracement for the pound may take place, before deciding pound to move further up or down.
A good play will be to wait for pound to retrace back to 1.65 before going short or to wait for pound to hit 1.62 for a rebound up. Its a bit difficult to state the direction for today as pound is now in a state of dispersion, meaning it now dangles in between the EMAs.
AN ugly start of the week with Asia, Europe and US market all recorded selling pressure in their equity market. With such an happening, traders then to flock back to the USD and the yen. As a result, throughout the day was a selling for the pound and the Eur.
Today at 1630hrsSGT, UK will announced CPI, which is predicted to slow down from 1.6% to 1.5%.
On the technicals, CCI is on the way down with no sign of reversal yet. Pound hit EMA55 at support yesterday, hitting a low at 1.628.
There may be some retracement today with resistance at 1.648/1.65 region. The next hight will be 1.654. Breakout thorugh 1.654 may signify pound back in a bullish state, but in the meanwhile is about shorting.
Support may easily break at EMA55 at 1.630, meaning pound will go lower towards 1.620 and potentially 1.60 region.
Trend: Down with lack of better than expected news. Some form of retracement for the pound may take place, before deciding pound to move further up or down.
A good play will be to wait for pound to retrace back to 1.65 before going short or to wait for pound to hit 1.62 for a rebound up. Its a bit difficult to state the direction for today as pound is now in a state of dispersion, meaning it now dangles in between the EMAs.
Monday, August 17, 2009
17 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Last week pound took a fall, it failed to break 1.67 and instead head lower to 1.64.
The market looked as they are taking a breather. The Dow and S&P has made new high, so it is time for some consolidation.
BoE announcement on the extended use of 50billion pound has hit the pound hard. Despite the better economic results from France,German, and even UK, it seem that both Eur and GBP choose the opportunity for some selling consolidation.
The is no UK news today. From the technical, pound has been trading within 1.64 and 1.67. The resistance has been lowered to 1.66, frank by daily EMA55 and EMA21 respectively.
Moving lower would be EMA100 at 1.62, while moving higher, pound has to clear 1.67 then 1.682.
Trend: Morning has been under alot of sell pressure. Without news, the pound may not move further below EMA55 too much. Possible of a rebound from 1.64 towards 1.655.
Last week pound took a fall, it failed to break 1.67 and instead head lower to 1.64.
The market looked as they are taking a breather. The Dow and S&P has made new high, so it is time for some consolidation.
BoE announcement on the extended use of 50billion pound has hit the pound hard. Despite the better economic results from France,German, and even UK, it seem that both Eur and GBP choose the opportunity for some selling consolidation.
The is no UK news today. From the technical, pound has been trading within 1.64 and 1.67. The resistance has been lowered to 1.66, frank by daily EMA55 and EMA21 respectively.
Moving lower would be EMA100 at 1.62, while moving higher, pound has to clear 1.67 then 1.682.
Trend: Morning has been under alot of sell pressure. Without news, the pound may not move further below EMA55 too much. Possible of a rebound from 1.64 towards 1.655.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
13 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
According to Bloomberg, The Bank of England said inflation may miss its 2 percent target as the economy endures a ``slow'' recovery and the risk that banks will limit credit. The inflation rate will drop further and economic growth may resume on an annual basis by 2010, according to forecasts released by the central bank today in London.
Claimant and Unemployment both reported slight increase, which negate the pound to a low of 1.639 yesterday.
It is still supported at daily EMA55 during Europe Trading hours. The reversal took place during US opening. Coupled with FOMC annoucement that they would be keeping rates unchanged, the stocks market rallied 120 points.
There are no major news for UK today, so all will be based on US news tonight at 2030hrs SGT. If pound continue to be above EMA55 at 1.65, it can hit back at 1.67 tonight, given a better than expected reported from the US.
Support is at 1.648, then 1.640, followed by a low of 1.62.
Resistance is at 1.662, then 1.672.
Trend: Up, most European currencies are up against the dollars. Given another round of stock rally, dollars may further weaken. A good leading indicator will be the Asian market, which most likely to rally first. Also look at how crude perform during Asian trading hours. If crude rally above 70, a indication of demand, plus a weaker dollars. Pound will stand to gain, given no major news today to disrupt it.
According to Bloomberg, The Bank of England said inflation may miss its 2 percent target as the economy endures a ``slow'' recovery and the risk that banks will limit credit. The inflation rate will drop further and economic growth may resume on an annual basis by 2010, according to forecasts released by the central bank today in London.
Claimant and Unemployment both reported slight increase, which negate the pound to a low of 1.639 yesterday.
It is still supported at daily EMA55 during Europe Trading hours. The reversal took place during US opening. Coupled with FOMC annoucement that they would be keeping rates unchanged, the stocks market rallied 120 points.
There are no major news for UK today, so all will be based on US news tonight at 2030hrs SGT. If pound continue to be above EMA55 at 1.65, it can hit back at 1.67 tonight, given a better than expected reported from the US.
Support is at 1.648, then 1.640, followed by a low of 1.62.
Resistance is at 1.662, then 1.672.
Trend: Up, most European currencies are up against the dollars. Given another round of stock rally, dollars may further weaken. A good leading indicator will be the Asian market, which most likely to rally first. Also look at how crude perform during Asian trading hours. If crude rally above 70, a indication of demand, plus a weaker dollars. Pound will stand to gain, given no major news today to disrupt it.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
12 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Clearly forming a doji and a weak one with only a short range from 1.652 and 1.643. It is a sign of a waiting for another round of breakout.
Today in the afternoon, a series of UK news from 1630hrs to 1730hrs SGT. These include Claimant Count Change and BOE Inflation Report. After the additional injection of 50billion pound, the sterling has been weak. As such any less than expected results from these two will easily signify further downward movement.
On the support, EMA55 at 1.643 region has been tested and could break. The next level is EMA100 at 1.6137.
Of course if a rebound does take place after breaking 1.652, 1.670 will be the target.
CCI is down.
Trend: Down, but a breakout from 1.652 and 1.643 could be possible. Do not expect big movement before the UK news. A clearer move will be after the last news and follow through the direction.
Clearly forming a doji and a weak one with only a short range from 1.652 and 1.643. It is a sign of a waiting for another round of breakout.
Today in the afternoon, a series of UK news from 1630hrs to 1730hrs SGT. These include Claimant Count Change and BOE Inflation Report. After the additional injection of 50billion pound, the sterling has been weak. As such any less than expected results from these two will easily signify further downward movement.
On the support, EMA55 at 1.643 region has been tested and could break. The next level is EMA100 at 1.6137.
Of course if a rebound does take place after breaking 1.652, 1.670 will be the target.
CCI is down.
Trend: Down, but a breakout from 1.652 and 1.643 could be possible. Do not expect big movement before the UK news. A clearer move will be after the last news and follow through the direction.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
11 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Yesterday pound broke and 1.67 support and also the daily EMA21, heading and hit EMA55 at 1.644, despite the absence of news
This morning RICS House Price Balance brought better than expected report and thus push the pound from further slide. It has since rebound 60 pips from yesterday low.
Today at 1630hrs we have UK Trade Balance. Only a much deeper deficit will hurt the Pound.
Support is at the daily EMA55 at 1.644, then 1.625, before 1.6137 at daily EMA100.
Resistance is at 1.658, then back to 1.670 again.
Trend: Up, but possible side movement as the market consolidate before making any direction.
Yesterday pound broke and 1.67 support and also the daily EMA21, heading and hit EMA55 at 1.644, despite the absence of news
This morning RICS House Price Balance brought better than expected report and thus push the pound from further slide. It has since rebound 60 pips from yesterday low.
Today at 1630hrs we have UK Trade Balance. Only a much deeper deficit will hurt the Pound.
Support is at the daily EMA55 at 1.644, then 1.625, before 1.6137 at daily EMA100.
Resistance is at 1.658, then back to 1.670 again.
Trend: Up, but possible side movement as the market consolidate before making any direction.
Monday, August 10, 2009
10 Aug 2009
GU Analysis:
1430hrs SGT
Today is an absence of news, so is all technicals.
Friday, US market rallied again, gaining a good 113 points. This morning, Asian market is up with a further boost from Japan better than expected economic data.
Morning saw the pound move up high to 1.672, but came down shortly just before Europe market opening.
From technicals, support is at 1.662/1.665 region, which is also the daily EMA21. Break this line, we will get the next level of support at 1.651, then 1.640
A poosible rebound off EMA21 will bring pound to 1.678, then 1.694.
CCI just cleared the bottom line of the BB, so setting a downward direction. But a upward pressure is also possible.
Trend: Up, Most likely moving side and trading in the range of 1.672 and 1.662.
1430hrs SGT
Today is an absence of news, so is all technicals.
Friday, US market rallied again, gaining a good 113 points. This morning, Asian market is up with a further boost from Japan better than expected economic data.
Morning saw the pound move up high to 1.672, but came down shortly just before Europe market opening.
From technicals, support is at 1.662/1.665 region, which is also the daily EMA21. Break this line, we will get the next level of support at 1.651, then 1.640
A poosible rebound off EMA21 will bring pound to 1.678, then 1.694.
CCI just cleared the bottom line of the BB, so setting a downward direction. But a upward pressure is also possible.
Trend: Up, Most likely moving side and trading in the range of 1.672 and 1.662.
Friday, August 07, 2009
7 Aug 2009
GU Analysis:
At 1900hrsSGT yesterday, the pound shot down almost 130 pips in 5 min when BoE announced an increase in assest buy-back to top 125 billion pound by another 25 billion pound. 150 billion pound was the approved and now it exceed by 25 billion pound. Investor see it as printing more pound, thus weaken it.
Today at 1630hrsSGT UK PPI report. Then in the evening 2030hrsSGT US Unemployment rate.
The expectation may follow the sentiments of yesterday big drop and further bring the pound to its support level. The expected unemployment is to raise to 9.7%, more than forecast.
CCI has indeed show a downward momentum. From the sets of EMAs using the 1-hour chart, the price now is supported at EMA200 at 1.677. The next support is at daily EMA21 at 1.6645. An immediate support is at 1.6705.
If pound gain upward, resistance is at 1.694, then 1.7005.
Trend: Down and a possibility for pound to move side within range of 1.67 and 1.69, till the release of news to determine direction.
At 1900hrsSGT yesterday, the pound shot down almost 130 pips in 5 min when BoE announced an increase in assest buy-back to top 125 billion pound by another 25 billion pound. 150 billion pound was the approved and now it exceed by 25 billion pound. Investor see it as printing more pound, thus weaken it.
Today at 1630hrsSGT UK PPI report. Then in the evening 2030hrsSGT US Unemployment rate.
The expectation may follow the sentiments of yesterday big drop and further bring the pound to its support level. The expected unemployment is to raise to 9.7%, more than forecast.
CCI has indeed show a downward momentum. From the sets of EMAs using the 1-hour chart, the price now is supported at EMA200 at 1.677. The next support is at daily EMA21 at 1.6645. An immediate support is at 1.6705.
If pound gain upward, resistance is at 1.694, then 1.7005.
Trend: Down and a possibility for pound to move side within range of 1.67 and 1.69, till the release of news to determine direction.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
6 Aug 2009
GU Analysis: Look out for BoE Statement 1900hrsSGT. Cable met resistance at 1.704 yesterday and support at 1.690. BoE report may break the pound in either direction.
Two reports from BoE will be important. One is the interest rate, which may be kept constant at 0.5%. The other is whether BoE decision to increase or decrease bond buy-back.
Coupled with all the recent better than expected UK data releases, a stop in the buy-back will give signs of that the financial plan work.
On the US side, ADP or Non-Farm Employment Change fall below expectation. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. That stall the pound in its advance yesterday.
For a trader that based solely on technicals, CCI pointed to a overbought situation and is showing the movement down. Pound could retraced to support at 1.690, then 1.6780, then 1.6705.
On the up side, expect the pound to clear 1.704 to reached 1.750, using Fib retracement to estimate. 1.82 is the target.
Trend: Afternoon expecting a down, before a possible volatile movement up towards 1.7
Two reports from BoE will be important. One is the interest rate, which may be kept constant at 0.5%. The other is whether BoE decision to increase or decrease bond buy-back.
Coupled with all the recent better than expected UK data releases, a stop in the buy-back will give signs of that the financial plan work.
On the US side, ADP or Non-Farm Employment Change fall below expectation. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. That stall the pound in its advance yesterday.
For a trader that based solely on technicals, CCI pointed to a overbought situation and is showing the movement down. Pound could retraced to support at 1.690, then 1.6780, then 1.6705.
On the up side, expect the pound to clear 1.704 to reached 1.750, using Fib retracement to estimate. 1.82 is the target.
Trend: Afternoon expecting a down, before a possible volatile movement up towards 1.7
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
5 Aug 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
After a good run on Monday, there is inevitable profit taking, as seen in the slow down on yesterday.
Pound doji around 1.693, without breaking the peak at 1.700.
More good news will follow today. UK Confidence is up this morning. In the afternoon, we have Halifax HPI, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. News released at 1430hrs SGT. Then at 1630hrs SGT UK Services PMI.
In the evening, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 2015hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
The expected results is better than the forecast, indicating and supporting the fact that the economy has recovered. If so, these will give support for the pound to gain breakout at 1.700.
On the daily chart CCI is very overbought, suggesting a possible consolidation. Support is strong at 1.682 and 1.6705 region. Unlikely for it to reach there today. Possible will be retracement using Fib retracement to 1.685(50%) and 1.682(68%) from peak of 1.7004.
Of course, resistance is at 1.702 and 1.75 (the mid point towards 1.82).
Trend: up
How to trade then? 1.693 has been the mid point for yesterday doji formation. We can trade rebound, given that the possibility of a up trend is high.
After a good run on Monday, there is inevitable profit taking, as seen in the slow down on yesterday.
Pound doji around 1.693, without breaking the peak at 1.700.
More good news will follow today. UK Confidence is up this morning. In the afternoon, we have Halifax HPI, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. News released at 1430hrs SGT. Then at 1630hrs SGT UK Services PMI.
In the evening, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 2015hrs SGT and 2200hrs SGT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
The expected results is better than the forecast, indicating and supporting the fact that the economy has recovered. If so, these will give support for the pound to gain breakout at 1.700.
On the daily chart CCI is very overbought, suggesting a possible consolidation. Support is strong at 1.682 and 1.6705 region. Unlikely for it to reach there today. Possible will be retracement using Fib retracement to 1.685(50%) and 1.682(68%) from peak of 1.7004.
Of course, resistance is at 1.702 and 1.75 (the mid point towards 1.82).
Trend: up
How to trade then? 1.693 has been the mid point for yesterday doji formation. We can trade rebound, given that the possibility of a up trend is high.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
4 Aug 2009
GU Analysis:
Wow, breakout of 1.67 and ended almost 1.7!
The reasons were due to better than expected results in both the UK Manufacturing PMI (hitting for the first time above 50%) and better US Construction spending (from -ve to +ve), better US Cars sales. The last piece od news trigger the pound during the US morning to hit peaks after new peaks, only to settle after noon trading.
The more than good sentiments will continue. S&P and DOW rallied. This monring Asian market will rally too.
In the afternoon, UK will release Construction PMI at 1630hrs SGT and a series of US news at 2030hrs SGT. In particular, Core PCE Price Index. But the critical one is at 2200hrs SGT on US Pending Homes Sales.
Signs of manufacturing has recovered, confidence is back, housing will be next in line then unemployment. These are indicators that the economy is getting on track.
So how high can pound go, given so many better than expected good news? Support is now at 1.67. Immediate resistance is at 1.69-1.702 the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Looking at the hour chart, pound may did a retracement then swing back towards 1.7 and beyond. Retracement level using Fib from 1.69883 and 1.6697, we have 1.6920, 1.6877 (EMA21), 1.6842 then 1.6808 (EMA55).
CCI looked overbought, indicating a retracement to take place.
Trend: Up given the good news. Expect retracement and some consolidation at Fib Retrecement level.
Wow, breakout of 1.67 and ended almost 1.7!
The reasons were due to better than expected results in both the UK Manufacturing PMI (hitting for the first time above 50%) and better US Construction spending (from -ve to +ve), better US Cars sales. The last piece od news trigger the pound during the US morning to hit peaks after new peaks, only to settle after noon trading.
The more than good sentiments will continue. S&P and DOW rallied. This monring Asian market will rally too.
In the afternoon, UK will release Construction PMI at 1630hrs SGT and a series of US news at 2030hrs SGT. In particular, Core PCE Price Index. But the critical one is at 2200hrs SGT on US Pending Homes Sales.
Signs of manufacturing has recovered, confidence is back, housing will be next in line then unemployment. These are indicators that the economy is getting on track.
So how high can pound go, given so many better than expected good news? Support is now at 1.67. Immediate resistance is at 1.69-1.702 the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Looking at the hour chart, pound may did a retracement then swing back towards 1.7 and beyond. Retracement level using Fib from 1.69883 and 1.6697, we have 1.6920, 1.6877 (EMA21), 1.6842 then 1.6808 (EMA55).
CCI looked overbought, indicating a retracement to take place.
Trend: Up given the good news. Expect retracement and some consolidation at Fib Retrecement level.
Friday, July 31, 2009
31 July 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The Stocks market rally again.
Pound is kept withing range of 1.655 and 1.660, failing again to break high. On the down side, it is supported strong by daily EMA21 at 1.640/1.634
News from www.investica.co.uk says that result may not be as expected and spur a selling of EUR/USD
From www.bloomberg.com, economy may show recovery from GDP results.
According to www.forexcrunch.com the result from GfK Consumer Confidence this morning has shown that the confidence has dropped (actual result).
There is no news this afternoon that may affect the pound, so it is all technical. The GfK confidence result this morning may weaken the pound till the news for US GDP at 2030hrsSGT.
Based on technical, pound is strongly resisted at 1.660 (see daily chart). It is also supported by EMA21 (see daily chart) now at 1.640
If the sentiments by GfK confidence is bad, lets observe the morning market. From the hour chart, we see no movement yet. But clearly during the night, the pound hovers between 1.653 and 1.647. Going lower see that pound is resisted by EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 at around 1.6440 and that form the first level of support, following that we see support at the low of 30July 0700 candle at 1.6340.
General trend is from CCI which show a weak up movement. Meaning it has weakness for a potential reversal.
Trend: Not clear in the afternoon unless GfK triggered strong movement else direction should be clearer until US market for GDP news.
Trading Breakout Up
One way to trade is to assume a breakout during the afternoon trading hours, but this is risky because of GfK confidence news. Placing a long at 1.653 is good, but at 1.660 we will faced the strong day resistance. Sl should be at either 1.6440 or 1.6340. This gives little support as CCI does not strongly confirm the movement.
Trading Breakout Down
To have a good break out, pound must clear the daily EMA21 at 1.640. This is good from the 1 hour chart, that show the clearance from the EMA100 and EMA200 from the 1 hour chart. There is no news that currently support the up movement of the pound. TP will be good at 1.634 or at daily EMA55 at 1.6268., SL at 1.652.
Trade Rebound Down
Assuming strong resistance at daily resistance line at 1.660. We can placed a short at 1.656, TP at EMA21 at 1.640, SL at 1.663. What support this trade is that GfK triggered a morning and afternoon spike, but by GDP news, it retraces.
Trade Rebound Up
Again GfK bring the pound down and retrace to 1.64 and 1.634 region and good GDP news rebound the pound up. Long at 1.635, TP at 1.6440( 1hour EMA200), SL at 1.628 (daily EMA55 support).
So which choice?
Trading conservative, I will choose to trade Rebound Up. Long movement is not clearly evidence and it capped now at 1.655 and 1.660 region.
Trading Breakout Up is also good, but offer little profits again because of the resistance at 1.655 and 1.660.
Trading Rebound Down is no good, because pound look good going up with all the stocks market rallys.
Trading breakout Down need to clear daily EMA21 for clear direction, else it is a strong resistance.
The Stocks market rally again.
Pound is kept withing range of 1.655 and 1.660, failing again to break high. On the down side, it is supported strong by daily EMA21 at 1.640/1.634
News from www.investica.co.uk says that result may not be as expected and spur a selling of EUR/USD
From www.bloomberg.com, economy may show recovery from GDP results.
According to www.forexcrunch.com the result from GfK Consumer Confidence this morning has shown that the confidence has dropped (actual result).
There is no news this afternoon that may affect the pound, so it is all technical. The GfK confidence result this morning may weaken the pound till the news for US GDP at 2030hrsSGT.
Based on technical, pound is strongly resisted at 1.660 (see daily chart). It is also supported by EMA21 (see daily chart) now at 1.640
If the sentiments by GfK confidence is bad, lets observe the morning market. From the hour chart, we see no movement yet. But clearly during the night, the pound hovers between 1.653 and 1.647. Going lower see that pound is resisted by EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 at around 1.6440 and that form the first level of support, following that we see support at the low of 30July 0700 candle at 1.6340.
General trend is from CCI which show a weak up movement. Meaning it has weakness for a potential reversal.
Trend: Not clear in the afternoon unless GfK triggered strong movement else direction should be clearer until US market for GDP news.
Trading Breakout Up
One way to trade is to assume a breakout during the afternoon trading hours, but this is risky because of GfK confidence news. Placing a long at 1.653 is good, but at 1.660 we will faced the strong day resistance. Sl should be at either 1.6440 or 1.6340. This gives little support as CCI does not strongly confirm the movement.
Trading Breakout Down
To have a good break out, pound must clear the daily EMA21 at 1.640. This is good from the 1 hour chart, that show the clearance from the EMA100 and EMA200 from the 1 hour chart. There is no news that currently support the up movement of the pound. TP will be good at 1.634 or at daily EMA55 at 1.6268., SL at 1.652.
Trade Rebound Down
Assuming strong resistance at daily resistance line at 1.660. We can placed a short at 1.656, TP at EMA21 at 1.640, SL at 1.663. What support this trade is that GfK triggered a morning and afternoon spike, but by GDP news, it retraces.
Trade Rebound Up
Again GfK bring the pound down and retrace to 1.64 and 1.634 region and good GDP news rebound the pound up. Long at 1.635, TP at 1.6440( 1hour EMA200), SL at 1.628 (daily EMA55 support).
So which choice?
Trading conservative, I will choose to trade Rebound Up. Long movement is not clearly evidence and it capped now at 1.655 and 1.660 region.
Trading Breakout Up is also good, but offer little profits again because of the resistance at 1.655 and 1.660.
Trading Rebound Down is no good, because pound look good going up with all the stocks market rallys.
Trading breakout Down need to clear daily EMA21 for clear direction, else it is a strong resistance.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
30 July 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
1200hrs SGT
The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.
Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.
But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.
GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.
WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.
Resistance is at 1.648.
Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.
1200hrs SGT
The pound weaken and fall back to its daily EMA21 support at 1.635. The Pound remain weak despite more mortgage approvals release which showed lending rose to its highest level in fourteen months. However, net lending to consumers missed expectations of 0.3 billion as banks remain reluctant to lend.
Today, at 1400hrs SGT, the British real estate sector will release figures on housing prices. This is still is one of the key factors in the economy. After house prices tumbled down, they are expected to rise modestly, this time by 0.3%.
But another key news is on German unemployment. It is expect to be worse off, thus potentially pulling EUR down and the effect may ripple to the GBP.
GBP is now supported by 1.635. From the 1-hour chart, it attempt to clear EMA200 at 1.646 this morning but failed.
WMA5 from the daily chart is still above EMA21, but CCI clearly indicate a down. The next level of support is at 1.6258.
Resistance is at 1.648.
Trend: Down, unless a much better than expected house prices push the pound beyond the resistance level, which we may then see 1.652.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
29 July 2009
GU analysis:
The rally for the last weeks in the equity market has come to a slow down, after achieving high for 2009.
The pound hit 1.6557, but began to retrace at 1600hrs SGT all the way to 1.639. All the news were released only after 1800hrs SGT. The US consumer was out at 2200hrs SGT was worst off than expected, but did not pull the pound further.
Toady at 1630hrs SGT, UK Net lending to Individual will give another view of the recovery in the banking and business sector. The numbers is expected to raise, indicating that consumers are ready to borrow.
Likewise at 2030hrs SGT, US Durable Goods will give indication of a recovery by a better than expected results. More orders of mechinery shows the road to recovery.
The technicals look tricky. Cable is constraint within 1.652 and 1.64. It can break in both direction, giving the fact that the price has been sqeezing in this range for more than a week.
CCI has showed sign of consoldiating down. Support at EMA21 daily is at 1.638, while EMA55 which is next is at 1.6245.
Resistance is at 1.652 then 1.663.
Trend: Down. The news release may affect the movement, but general sentiment is down based on CCI.
The rally for the last weeks in the equity market has come to a slow down, after achieving high for 2009.
The pound hit 1.6557, but began to retrace at 1600hrs SGT all the way to 1.639. All the news were released only after 1800hrs SGT. The US consumer was out at 2200hrs SGT was worst off than expected, but did not pull the pound further.
Toady at 1630hrs SGT, UK Net lending to Individual will give another view of the recovery in the banking and business sector. The numbers is expected to raise, indicating that consumers are ready to borrow.
Likewise at 2030hrs SGT, US Durable Goods will give indication of a recovery by a better than expected results. More orders of mechinery shows the road to recovery.
The technicals look tricky. Cable is constraint within 1.652 and 1.64. It can break in both direction, giving the fact that the price has been sqeezing in this range for more than a week.
CCI has showed sign of consoldiating down. Support at EMA21 daily is at 1.638, while EMA55 which is next is at 1.6245.
Resistance is at 1.652 then 1.663.
Trend: Down. The news release may affect the movement, but general sentiment is down based on CCI.
Monday, July 27, 2009
27 July 2009
GU Analysis (1600 SGT)
The stock market did a rally with the Dow staying above 9000 on Friday closing. Asian market was almost blue, with the European market following likewise.
The first piece of news this week that could affect the pound will be US New Home Sales at 2200hrs SGT.
From the technical side, Pound is still supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, giving good support at 1.6395.
It did a morning rally towards 1.652 and now currently doing a retracement. From the 1 hour chart it did a 50% Fib retracement to 1.6453. The next level is at 1.6437. Support at EMA200 on the 1 hour chart is at 1.6428.
Looking at the trend, as long as the EMA21 support is not breech, pound has the potential to go higher. Its sister pair EUR/USD is also hitting 1.4250.
Resistance at 1.652, then 1.659
Trend: Up, provide, EMA21 at 1.64 is not broken.
The stock market did a rally with the Dow staying above 9000 on Friday closing. Asian market was almost blue, with the European market following likewise.
The first piece of news this week that could affect the pound will be US New Home Sales at 2200hrs SGT.
From the technical side, Pound is still supported by EMA21 on the daily chart, giving good support at 1.6395.
It did a morning rally towards 1.652 and now currently doing a retracement. From the 1 hour chart it did a 50% Fib retracement to 1.6453. The next level is at 1.6437. Support at EMA200 on the 1 hour chart is at 1.6428.
Looking at the trend, as long as the EMA21 support is not breech, pound has the potential to go higher. Its sister pair EUR/USD is also hitting 1.4250.
Resistance at 1.652, then 1.659
Trend: Up, provide, EMA21 at 1.64 is not broken.
Friday, July 24, 2009
24 July 2009
GU analysis:
Both Dow Jones and S&P500 continue their rally with better than expected earnings. This lead to a continued weakness in USD and YEN.
The pound began its climb with the better than expected results of its retail sales. It further took advantage during US market with better homes sales (jumping 3.6%) and the rally in the equity market. It hit day high of 1.6586.
Today we have one very important news UK GDP released at 1630SGT. The most recent indicators have pointed UK with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement. However, Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the GDP report would almost certainly be negative.
From the daily chart, sterling did a double top formation. The 1 hour chart showed a dispersion into EMA21. From the 30min chart, it has a head and shoulder formation. From its high yesterday, sterling has retraced below from where it has broken out at 1.652, suggesting that 1.652 failed to form a support for sterling to climb higher.
Support is at 1.638, which happen to be EMA200 for the 1 hour chart and the EMA21 for the daily chart. This will be one critical support before breking lower to 1.620.
The only positive technical is that CCI has not reversed. Resistance is at 1.663, provided it clears yester high at 1.658.
Trend: down, unless supported by 1.638
Both Dow Jones and S&P500 continue their rally with better than expected earnings. This lead to a continued weakness in USD and YEN.
The pound began its climb with the better than expected results of its retail sales. It further took advantage during US market with better homes sales (jumping 3.6%) and the rally in the equity market. It hit day high of 1.6586.
Today we have one very important news UK GDP released at 1630SGT. The most recent indicators have pointed UK with improvements in business surveys while the housing sector has also shown clear signs of improvement. However, Bank Governor Bean commented on Wednesday that the GDP report would almost certainly be negative.
From the daily chart, sterling did a double top formation. The 1 hour chart showed a dispersion into EMA21. From the 30min chart, it has a head and shoulder formation. From its high yesterday, sterling has retraced below from where it has broken out at 1.652, suggesting that 1.652 failed to form a support for sterling to climb higher.
Support is at 1.638, which happen to be EMA200 for the 1 hour chart and the EMA21 for the daily chart. This will be one critical support before breking lower to 1.620.
The only positive technical is that CCI has not reversed. Resistance is at 1.663, provided it clears yester high at 1.658.
Trend: down, unless supported by 1.638
Thursday, July 23, 2009
23 July 2009
GBPUSD Analysis:
The stock market is still the barometer for risk.
When the U.S. stock market does well, forex traders seem more willing to take riskier, higher-yielding trades---which tends to send the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) lower.
When the U.S. stock market does poorly, forex traders seem more likely to take safer, lower-yielding trades---which tends to send the USD and the JPY higher.
In both Asis and Europe market, the dollar was strengthening all day. It remained firm throughout and during the testimony of Bernanke before the Financial Services committee.
Once Ben’s testimony concluded, the Dollar weakened. DOW also surged in early trading, which helped to erase almost all of the Dollar’s gains.
The pound retraced after reaching high of 1.6505.
Today, the concerned is whether the UK economic recovery is stalling and that the U.K. doesn’t have enough money to provide anymore stimulus without blowing out the budget. It will be a wait and see situation until the preliminary Second Quarter GDP number is released on Friday.
At the technical side, 1.652 is a strong resistance, else it would render the pound to range between 1.652 and 1.632.
Breaking 1.652 will bring the pound to the next high at 1.663.
Breaking 1.632 will bring the pound lower to 1.620.
But my expectation for today is that pound will attempt 1.652 because of the Retatil Sales report at 1630SGT. It fell last time by 0.6%, and is predicted to rise by 0.4%.
At 2200SGT, the US will release its Existing Homes Sales.
Trend: ??
The stock market is still the barometer for risk.
When the U.S. stock market does well, forex traders seem more willing to take riskier, higher-yielding trades---which tends to send the U.S. dollar (USD) and the Japanese yen (JPY) lower.
When the U.S. stock market does poorly, forex traders seem more likely to take safer, lower-yielding trades---which tends to send the USD and the JPY higher.
In both Asis and Europe market, the dollar was strengthening all day. It remained firm throughout and during the testimony of Bernanke before the Financial Services committee.
Once Ben’s testimony concluded, the Dollar weakened. DOW also surged in early trading, which helped to erase almost all of the Dollar’s gains.
The pound retraced after reaching high of 1.6505.
Today, the concerned is whether the UK economic recovery is stalling and that the U.K. doesn’t have enough money to provide anymore stimulus without blowing out the budget. It will be a wait and see situation until the preliminary Second Quarter GDP number is released on Friday.
At the technical side, 1.652 is a strong resistance, else it would render the pound to range between 1.652 and 1.632.
Breaking 1.652 will bring the pound to the next high at 1.663.
Breaking 1.632 will bring the pound lower to 1.620.
But my expectation for today is that pound will attempt 1.652 because of the Retatil Sales report at 1630SGT. It fell last time by 0.6%, and is predicted to rise by 0.4%.
At 2200SGT, the US will release its Existing Homes Sales.
Trend: ??
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