GU Analysis:
GU hit 1.60 this morning.
In the equity market, stocks coninute its confidence run despite no major US news.
Today at 0700 SGT, UK showed improve consumer confidence. Will the run continue in the afternoon? At 1400 SGT, the realease of HPI, after being delayed from last week. Although not the first house price index, this is an accurate one. The British real estate sector has skyrocketed during the good years, and plunged in this crisis, accelerating the recession. Any good result may aid pound to touch the 1.66 barrier and break it.
Follow this at 1630, UK GDP and current account, the major news that will set the direction for GU. Britain’s current account usually shows a deficit, and the first quarter of 2009 isn’t different. At least it’s expected to squeeze down, and this might help the Pound. The deficit is predicted to fall from 7.6 to 6.5 billion.
On the technical side, pound has inched higher towards the 1.66 barrier. Support is also higher at EMA21 on the daily chart at 1.6405.
Break 1.66 and pound will need to clear 1.67 for a very sure sign of up trend, to reach above 1.705. Break below 1.64, support is at 1.625
Trend: Up, but the major news must support the direction.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
29 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
GU is still contain withing 1.66 and 1.62.
All the major news last week has fail to determine the direction of this pair.
Equity market is also not making head way in any direction.
Today UK major news at 1630hrs on Mortgage Approvals. This will reflect the perfromance of the bank and indicate whether the banks are lending. If the economy is recovering well, lending should increase.
In the Japan hour of trading, pound has been heading down from 1.652. It has rebounded at EMA200 on the 1-hr chart. This form the support at 1.645. Resistance is at 1.655.
Breaking 1.645 will permit the pound to reach support at 1.639 (EMA21 on the daily chart).
Trend: ? Beware of breakout and trade within range today. If out of 1.66 and 1.62, relinguish short and long position respectively.
GU is still contain withing 1.66 and 1.62.
All the major news last week has fail to determine the direction of this pair.
Equity market is also not making head way in any direction.
Today UK major news at 1630hrs on Mortgage Approvals. This will reflect the perfromance of the bank and indicate whether the banks are lending. If the economy is recovering well, lending should increase.
In the Japan hour of trading, pound has been heading down from 1.652. It has rebounded at EMA200 on the 1-hr chart. This form the support at 1.645. Resistance is at 1.655.
Breaking 1.645 will permit the pound to reach support at 1.639 (EMA21 on the daily chart).
Trend: ? Beware of breakout and trade within range today. If out of 1.66 and 1.62, relinguish short and long position respectively.
Friday, June 26, 2009
26 Jun 2009
GU Analysis
After a hit at 1.623, GU rebound strongly reacting strongly during US market. Now at 1.64.
DOW gave a 170 points gain, despite poor unemployment report, but better homebuilder and retailers report.
No major UK news. At 2030hrs SGT, US Consumer spending. It will probably rose in May for the first time in three months and home sales increased as Americans became more confident the recession will end this year.
Technically, pound is still trading within the band of 1.62 and 1.67. It has not breakout of this band yet. CCI looks down but has potential for reversal up.
Immediate support is at daily EMA21 at 1.634. Resistance is at 1.662
Trend: ? Up towards 1.66, and direction depends whether is break or rebound.
After a hit at 1.623, GU rebound strongly reacting strongly during US market. Now at 1.64.
DOW gave a 170 points gain, despite poor unemployment report, but better homebuilder and retailers report.
No major UK news. At 2030hrs SGT, US Consumer spending. It will probably rose in May for the first time in three months and home sales increased as Americans became more confident the recession will end this year.
Technically, pound is still trading within the band of 1.62 and 1.67. It has not breakout of this band yet. CCI looks down but has potential for reversal up.
Immediate support is at daily EMA21 at 1.634. Resistance is at 1.662
Trend: ? Up towards 1.66, and direction depends whether is break or rebound.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
25 Jun 2009
GU analysis:
In the UK, Retail sales fell for the second month running in the year to June, following April’s brief respite, the CBI said today (Wednesday). The decline, broadly in line with retailers’ expectations, was no worse than in May however, and less severe than falls recorded between July 2008 and March 2009.
While in the US, Purchase of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as builder discounts failed to keep pace with the foreclosure-driven slump in prices for resales. Sales decreased 0.6 percent to an annual pace of 342,000 after a revised 344,000 rate in April that was lower than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
The Federal Reserve refrained from increasing its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program, said the pace of economic contraction is slowing and predicted inflation will remain “subdued for some time.”
Overall, the GBPUSD was a doji, up and down, hitting high at 1.66, then fall to 1.636.
The outlook for today will still be uncertain, without any major push towards any direction.
The only major news today will be at 2030hrs SGT on US on unemplyment claims. But Obama had said that it will hit >10%.
On the technical side, the price movement is still clamp within resistance at 1.67 and support at daily EMA21 at 1.632.
Trend: ? As the squeeze tighten, expect a big breakout, but direction is currently not sure.
In the UK, Retail sales fell for the second month running in the year to June, following April’s brief respite, the CBI said today (Wednesday). The decline, broadly in line with retailers’ expectations, was no worse than in May however, and less severe than falls recorded between July 2008 and March 2009.
While in the US, Purchase of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in May as builder discounts failed to keep pace with the foreclosure-driven slump in prices for resales. Sales decreased 0.6 percent to an annual pace of 342,000 after a revised 344,000 rate in April that was lower than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
The Federal Reserve refrained from increasing its $1.75 trillion bond-purchase program, said the pace of economic contraction is slowing and predicted inflation will remain “subdued for some time.”
Overall, the GBPUSD was a doji, up and down, hitting high at 1.66, then fall to 1.636.
The outlook for today will still be uncertain, without any major push towards any direction.
The only major news today will be at 2030hrs SGT on US on unemplyment claims. But Obama had said that it will hit >10%.
On the technical side, the price movement is still clamp within resistance at 1.67 and support at daily EMA21 at 1.632.
Trend: ? As the squeeze tighten, expect a big breakout, but direction is currently not sure.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
24 Jun 2009
GU analysis:
Pound hit low at 1.620, hitting EMA21 on the daily chart and rebound follow better than expected UK Mortgage Approvals.
It followed in the US, an increase in Housing Sales.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) publishes this figure on a monthly basis, and focuses on the change in sales volume. Last time, this important figure was very bad - at -17 points. This time, expectations are low. It’s expected to remain there. In past releases the Pound shook after this publication. Time 1800 SGT.
From the technical side, pound is still contain within 1.62 and 1.66.
It has form a wedge formation bounded by the trend line joining 3Jun, 11Jun and 19Jun and the EMA21.
Trend: ? Given the better news, pound should hit higher, but again, watch the support and resistance.
Pound hit low at 1.620, hitting EMA21 on the daily chart and rebound follow better than expected UK Mortgage Approvals.
It followed in the US, an increase in Housing Sales.
Today, The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) publishes this figure on a monthly basis, and focuses on the change in sales volume. Last time, this important figure was very bad - at -17 points. This time, expectations are low. It’s expected to remain there. In past releases the Pound shook after this publication. Time 1800 SGT.
From the technical side, pound is still contain within 1.62 and 1.66.
It has form a wedge formation bounded by the trend line joining 3Jun, 11Jun and 19Jun and the EMA21.
Trend: ? Given the better news, pound should hit higher, but again, watch the support and resistance.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
23 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
Sweeping across Europe and then US, the equlity showed major drop. The DOW fell 200 points. The correlation between the GBPUSD pair and major global equity indices has pulled back to recent trade. The buck (USD) seems to be gaining on the back of poor economic estimates by the World Bank, which announced a 2.9% contraction in world economy
In UK, the HPI was reported -0.4% compared to last month +2.4%, a sign of not a total recovery.
Other important risk barometers are showing noteworthy signs of stress: the spread between US Treasuries and highly-speculative junk bonds has recently increased after several months of contraction.
Today,
With no significant US data releases this Monday, and a relatively light economic calendar, the focus for the market is firmly on the FOMC meeting.
Also, another housing indicator, this time touching the more sensitive area of housing - bank mortgages. The banking sector was also one of the most problematic sectors in this crisis. Last month, Mortgage Approvals disappointed and rose only to 27.7K, and failed to reach the 29K mark. This time, expectations are for a rise to 29.5K. It’s published on Tuesday at 16:30 SGT.
The reversal may came in Sales of existing U.S. homes, likely rose for a second straight month in May as plentiful supplies and low mortgage rates have opened the resale market to a wider range of buyers, according to a Reuters poll. Time 2200hrs SGT.
Support at 1.622, then 1.613. Breaking this could send the cable towards a bearish trend.
Resistance is at 1.653, then 1.67.
Trend: Bearish, but expect reversal at support.
Sweeping across Europe and then US, the equlity showed major drop. The DOW fell 200 points. The correlation between the GBPUSD pair and major global equity indices has pulled back to recent trade. The buck (USD) seems to be gaining on the back of poor economic estimates by the World Bank, which announced a 2.9% contraction in world economy
In UK, the HPI was reported -0.4% compared to last month +2.4%, a sign of not a total recovery.
Other important risk barometers are showing noteworthy signs of stress: the spread between US Treasuries and highly-speculative junk bonds has recently increased after several months of contraction.
Today,
With no significant US data releases this Monday, and a relatively light economic calendar, the focus for the market is firmly on the FOMC meeting.
Also, another housing indicator, this time touching the more sensitive area of housing - bank mortgages. The banking sector was also one of the most problematic sectors in this crisis. Last month, Mortgage Approvals disappointed and rose only to 27.7K, and failed to reach the 29K mark. This time, expectations are for a rise to 29.5K. It’s published on Tuesday at 16:30 SGT.
The reversal may came in Sales of existing U.S. homes, likely rose for a second straight month in May as plentiful supplies and low mortgage rates have opened the resale market to a wider range of buyers, according to a Reuters poll. Time 2200hrs SGT.
Support at 1.622, then 1.613. Breaking this could send the cable towards a bearish trend.
Resistance is at 1.653, then 1.67.
Trend: Bearish, but expect reversal at support.
Monday, June 22, 2009
22 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
Pound failed to make pass 1.66, it fall back from 1.656. This was in the midst of no major news. Now it has fall back to 1.647.
This morning, giving the first shot is HPI. This House Price Index is a fresh indicator, but not the most accurate one. It rose by 2.4% last time, but this time it fall to negative 0.4%.
Today will be another quiet day, based mainly on technicals.
CCI34 look on the down trend. It has tried a number of times to clear the top most BB(14, 0.8) line but failed. Support is at 1.6425 (1hour EMA200), then at 1.6358, followed by 1.6250.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.659, clear this and it may hit towards 1.664.
Trend: No clear one, until cable clear 1.667 or 1.618
Pound failed to make pass 1.66, it fall back from 1.656. This was in the midst of no major news. Now it has fall back to 1.647.
This morning, giving the first shot is HPI. This House Price Index is a fresh indicator, but not the most accurate one. It rose by 2.4% last time, but this time it fall to negative 0.4%.
Today will be another quiet day, based mainly on technicals.
CCI34 look on the down trend. It has tried a number of times to clear the top most BB(14, 0.8) line but failed. Support is at 1.6425 (1hour EMA200), then at 1.6358, followed by 1.6250.
On the up side, resistance is at 1.659, clear this and it may hit towards 1.664.
Trend: No clear one, until cable clear 1.667 or 1.618
Friday, June 19, 2009
19 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
In US, The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell for the first time since early January.
In UK, retail reported worse than expected results.
These are enough to push the pound lower and given that there are also no major news to disrupt today.
However, trading has been in the range 1.66 and 1.62, bouncing up and down at the median support and resistance at 1.635.
This is an interesting development, as the range 1.66 and 1.62 is all within a day trading, meaning that target can be reach within a day.
Trend: Range trading until breakout at 1.66 or 1.618
This is an interesting article on range trading:
In US, The number of people receiving unemployment aid fell for the first time since early January.
In UK, retail reported worse than expected results.
These are enough to push the pound lower and given that there are also no major news to disrupt today.
However, trading has been in the range 1.66 and 1.62, bouncing up and down at the median support and resistance at 1.635.
This is an interesting development, as the range 1.66 and 1.62 is all within a day trading, meaning that target can be reach within a day.
Trend: Range trading until breakout at 1.66 or 1.618
This is an interesting article on range trading:
Thursday, June 18, 2009
18 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
The British unemployment rate in the three months ending in April rose to 7.2%, up from 6.5% in the three months to January. Despite the lower Claimant than previous, the pound began its decline from 1.648 to 1.622. It rebound during US trading sessions with Consumer prices rose less than expected in May and posted the steepest annual drop in 59 years, according to government data released Wednesday, fresh evidence that the recession is keeping inflation in check.
Late in the night, BoE says Bank need more capital.
Prices has been fluctuate between the EMA200 line in the 1-hour chart at 1.636. Resistance at 1.648 and support at 1.622.
Which way will it go today? The last of UK major news is on
Retail Sales: This major economic indicator has shown strength last time by rising nicely - 0.9%. This time, expectations are more modest - a rise of 0.4%. British Retail Sales are released on Thursday at 1630 SGT.
Break the resistance and it will go to 1.66, break the support and it will hit 1.60.
The British unemployment rate in the three months ending in April rose to 7.2%, up from 6.5% in the three months to January. Despite the lower Claimant than previous, the pound began its decline from 1.648 to 1.622. It rebound during US trading sessions with Consumer prices rose less than expected in May and posted the steepest annual drop in 59 years, according to government data released Wednesday, fresh evidence that the recession is keeping inflation in check.
Late in the night, BoE says Bank need more capital.
Prices has been fluctuate between the EMA200 line in the 1-hour chart at 1.636. Resistance at 1.648 and support at 1.622.
Which way will it go today? The last of UK major news is on
Retail Sales: This major economic indicator has shown strength last time by rising nicely - 0.9%. This time, expectations are more modest - a rise of 0.4%. British Retail Sales are released on Thursday at 1630 SGT.
Break the resistance and it will go to 1.66, break the support and it will hit 1.60.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
17 Jun 2009
GU Analysis:
DOW extended its pullback Tuesday after news of a seventh straight monthly drop in industrial production overshadowed better-than-expected reports on home construction, building permits and inflation.
UK CPI rose to expected 1.9%, pushing the pound up during European trading below falling from 1.645 t0 current 1.636.
Today, the earliest and most important indicator for the British job market, Claminant Count Change. Claims are predicted to rise to 61.8K. The British job marjet still hasn’t reached a bottom. The unemployment rate is on the rise. It’ll be released at 1630 SGT.
On the technical side, looking at the 1-hour chart, there is a squeeze 1.635 and 1.640.
Support is at 1.61875, then 1.6007. Resistance is at 1.655, then 1.6705
Trend: Bearish, with strong support at 1.61875, unless it clear resistance at 1.6705
DOW extended its pullback Tuesday after news of a seventh straight monthly drop in industrial production overshadowed better-than-expected reports on home construction, building permits and inflation.
UK CPI rose to expected 1.9%, pushing the pound up during European trading below falling from 1.645 t0 current 1.636.
Today, the earliest and most important indicator for the British job market, Claminant Count Change. Claims are predicted to rise to 61.8K. The British job marjet still hasn’t reached a bottom. The unemployment rate is on the rise. It’ll be released at 1630 SGT.
On the technical side, looking at the 1-hour chart, there is a squeeze 1.635 and 1.640.
Support is at 1.61875, then 1.6007. Resistance is at 1.655, then 1.6705
Trend: Bearish, with strong support at 1.61875, unless it clear resistance at 1.6705
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
16 June 2009
GU Analysis
The Dow Jones industrials fell 187 points Monday. The slide began in Asia and Europe and spread to the U.S. as a strong dollar pushed commodities prices sharply lower.
Overseas trading was influenced by the dollar, which rose against most other major currencies following weekend comments from Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, that the greenback likely would remain the world's reserve currency.
Today, first at 1630 SGT, the UK CPI news. Is Britain sinking into deflation? The Euro zone is already there, and Britain has avoided falling prices so far. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 1.9% (annually adjusted). This is lower than last month’s 2.3%. If this happens, the Pound will suffer. This is the fisr indicator for the week, and quite a strong one.
Tonight UK production and housing at 2030hrs SGT. Reports on manufacturing and housing this week will probably offer evidence that the recession- stricken U.S. economy is within months of hitting bottom
Looking technically, pound will first target support at daily EMA21 at 1.6125, then 1.594. Resistance is at 1.644 then 1.658.
Trend: Bearish.
The Dow Jones industrials fell 187 points Monday. The slide began in Asia and Europe and spread to the U.S. as a strong dollar pushed commodities prices sharply lower.
Overseas trading was influenced by the dollar, which rose against most other major currencies following weekend comments from Russia's finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, that the greenback likely would remain the world's reserve currency.
Today, first at 1630 SGT, the UK CPI news. Is Britain sinking into deflation? The Euro zone is already there, and Britain has avoided falling prices so far. The Consumer Price Index is expected to rise by 1.9% (annually adjusted). This is lower than last month’s 2.3%. If this happens, the Pound will suffer. This is the fisr indicator for the week, and quite a strong one.
Tonight UK production and housing at 2030hrs SGT. Reports on manufacturing and housing this week will probably offer evidence that the recession- stricken U.S. economy is within months of hitting bottom
Looking technically, pound will first target support at daily EMA21 at 1.6125, then 1.594. Resistance is at 1.644 then 1.658.
Trend: Bearish.
Monday, June 15, 2009
15 June 2009
GU Analysis:
No major news today. But look out this week for CPI, Claimant Count Change, a speech by Mervyn King and Retail Sales that will move the British Pound.
With no news the fall will be upon technical. Pound has retreated from a high of 1.666 and now looking at the daily chart, a double top formation.
Support is found at a similiar strong line at 1.58.
This means that breaking either 1.666 or 1.58 will set pound clearly in direction.
For today it may be unlikely for this to happen and thus we look short term at the 1 hour chart. EMA200 pose a strong support at 1.634 while 1.652 pose as it resistance.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way movement trading within 1.634 and 1.652.
No major news today. But look out this week for CPI, Claimant Count Change, a speech by Mervyn King and Retail Sales that will move the British Pound.
With no news the fall will be upon technical. Pound has retreated from a high of 1.666 and now looking at the daily chart, a double top formation.
Support is found at a similiar strong line at 1.58.
This means that breaking either 1.666 or 1.58 will set pound clearly in direction.
For today it may be unlikely for this to happen and thus we look short term at the 1 hour chart. EMA200 pose a strong support at 1.634 while 1.652 pose as it resistance.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way movement trading within 1.634 and 1.652.
Friday, June 12, 2009
12 June 2009
GU Analysis:
US initial unemployment claims has start to fall. Good news, as this is the lagging confirmation that the economy is recovering. However, plaguing the situation is that Treasury yields retreated as the highest levels of the year attracted buyers to an auction of 30-year bonds. High interest means a stronger demand for US dollars.
The pound on the other side remain strong and has not retreated, it hit 1.662. FSTE advance.
On the technical side, CCI still show sign of a bull. It has potential to climb. As there are no major UK news today, its all technical.
Pound hit high at 1.666 last week. This give a good breakout price for pound to sail towards 1.77.
Is this part of a B-wave turning to a C-wave down or is this the start of a C-wave towards 1.77?
Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.69-1.702, the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Support is at 1.6519, then 1.641, then 1.6250
Trend: Bullish but may reverse at resistance 1.67 to become a C-wave down.
US initial unemployment claims has start to fall. Good news, as this is the lagging confirmation that the economy is recovering. However, plaguing the situation is that Treasury yields retreated as the highest levels of the year attracted buyers to an auction of 30-year bonds. High interest means a stronger demand for US dollars.
The pound on the other side remain strong and has not retreated, it hit 1.662. FSTE advance.
On the technical side, CCI still show sign of a bull. It has potential to climb. As there are no major UK news today, its all technical.
Pound hit high at 1.666 last week. This give a good breakout price for pound to sail towards 1.77.
Is this part of a B-wave turning to a C-wave down or is this the start of a C-wave towards 1.77?
Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.69-1.702, the physiology mark before the big up above 1.7. 1.82 is the 50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491.
Support is at 1.6519, then 1.641, then 1.6250
Trend: Bullish but may reverse at resistance 1.67 to become a C-wave down.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
11 June 2009
GU Analysis:
US stock fall on fear of an increase in debts. In order to buy these treasury bonds, Feb has raised the 10 treasury bonds yields. The increase in interest has cause some fear in inflation.
Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said the U.K. recession may be “bottoming out,” setting the scene for a recovery as soon as this year.
Today we have the US announcing its retail sales and unemployment, all pointing to an expected retail sales figures, better consumer confidence. Watch out for unemplyment claims at 2030hrs SGT.
Technically, the pound form a doji, point to a possibility in either direction. CCI continue to show up trend. At the 1hour chart, it is support by EMA21 at 1.634, then EMA200 at 1.618.
Pound went high yesterday to 1.6474 and has since retrace to its 50% at 1.6357, nearing its 68% at 1.6384.
Resistance is at 1.645, then 1.657.
Over trend: Bullish, due to a weak dollars and CCI confirmation. But caution as this may be the turning point for the start of a C-wave down.
US stock fall on fear of an increase in debts. In order to buy these treasury bonds, Feb has raised the 10 treasury bonds yields. The increase in interest has cause some fear in inflation.
Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance said the U.K. recession may be “bottoming out,” setting the scene for a recovery as soon as this year.
Today we have the US announcing its retail sales and unemployment, all pointing to an expected retail sales figures, better consumer confidence. Watch out for unemplyment claims at 2030hrs SGT.
Technically, the pound form a doji, point to a possibility in either direction. CCI continue to show up trend. At the 1hour chart, it is support by EMA21 at 1.634, then EMA200 at 1.618.
Pound went high yesterday to 1.6474 and has since retrace to its 50% at 1.6357, nearing its 68% at 1.6384.
Resistance is at 1.645, then 1.657.
Over trend: Bullish, due to a weak dollars and CCI confirmation. But caution as this may be the turning point for the start of a C-wave down.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
10 June 2009
GU Analysis:
After a short retracement the release of the UK RICS House Price Balance, the pound began its ascend. On the US side, Treasury Sec Geithner said that the US government will perform Regulatory Overhaul on the financial system to reduce the effect of credit crisis on firms, in addition the Treasury will start Toxic Asset removal plan.
Today at 1630SGT, UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance. All this will point the direction of a recovering economy. The UK trade balance is at 2030SGT.
On the technical side, the pound break the EMA200 on its 1-hour chart, it did a good retracement on the daily chart all the way touching its 68% at 1.6334.
This could be a start of a C-wave, the start of a bigger up with the potential to hit 1.68, then 1.74. However on the hind side, this could also be just a B-wave, for a potential big C-wave down, supported at 1.58, then 1.55.
Today resistance is at 1.645, then 1.658, Support is at 1.623, then 1.600.
Trend: Bullish, beware of resistance.
After a short retracement the release of the UK RICS House Price Balance, the pound began its ascend. On the US side, Treasury Sec Geithner said that the US government will perform Regulatory Overhaul on the financial system to reduce the effect of credit crisis on firms, in addition the Treasury will start Toxic Asset removal plan.
Today at 1630SGT, UK Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance. All this will point the direction of a recovering economy. The UK trade balance is at 2030SGT.
On the technical side, the pound break the EMA200 on its 1-hour chart, it did a good retracement on the daily chart all the way touching its 68% at 1.6334.
This could be a start of a C-wave, the start of a bigger up with the potential to hit 1.68, then 1.74. However on the hind side, this could also be just a B-wave, for a potential big C-wave down, supported at 1.58, then 1.55.
Today resistance is at 1.645, then 1.658, Support is at 1.623, then 1.600.
Trend: Bullish, beware of resistance.
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
9 June 2009
GU Analysis:
The DOW dipped 130 before a last hours spike to positive ground, ending a little more than a point. Signs that enconomy is really recovering and fear missing out the opportunity may have caused this spike.
On the UK side, The Bank of England is proposing an extension to its Asset Purchase Facility to buy secured commercial paper as part of its plan to restore liquidity to credit markets. Plus this morning a better than expected housing news showed sign of steady UK recovery. But of course, the recent scandal in UK may threathen the political stability of Gordon Brown.
Nevertheless, the pound, in spite a absence of news rally up from its daily EMA21 at 1.587 and ended 1.610.
There are no major news today, until Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks at 2230hrs SGT.
Looking at the technicals for clue, the pound has not traded out of its 1.58 and 1.62. CCI has showed some sign of reversal up but its a bit early to conclude.
If pound break up at 1.62, it will be bullish again, heading towards 1.626, then 1.645.
If it hit below 1.58, it will head towards 1.552, then 1.515.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way trading within band, before any strong direction indication.
The DOW dipped 130 before a last hours spike to positive ground, ending a little more than a point. Signs that enconomy is really recovering and fear missing out the opportunity may have caused this spike.
On the UK side, The Bank of England is proposing an extension to its Asset Purchase Facility to buy secured commercial paper as part of its plan to restore liquidity to credit markets. Plus this morning a better than expected housing news showed sign of steady UK recovery. But of course, the recent scandal in UK may threathen the political stability of Gordon Brown.
Nevertheless, the pound, in spite a absence of news rally up from its daily EMA21 at 1.587 and ended 1.610.
There are no major news today, until Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks at 2230hrs SGT.
Looking at the technicals for clue, the pound has not traded out of its 1.58 and 1.62. CCI has showed some sign of reversal up but its a bit early to conclude.
If pound break up at 1.62, it will be bullish again, heading towards 1.626, then 1.645.
If it hit below 1.58, it will head towards 1.552, then 1.515.
Trend: Bullish, but expect side way trading within band, before any strong direction indication.
Monday, June 08, 2009
8 June 2009
GU Analysis:
Australian banks are on holiday.
Europe and US has a lack of news today.
Basically, it is left to the technical for any movement of the ppund today.
A number of forecast that the US enconomy recovery and the UK economy may need to print more money. There is however no news and data that directly backs them up.
Technically, the pound may trade within the range 1.6080 and 1.5785.
Support is at 1.5785, then 1.5520.
Resistance is at 1.6080, then 1.620.
Trend: Bearish, but may move side around the trading range stated.
Australian banks are on holiday.
Europe and US has a lack of news today.
Basically, it is left to the technical for any movement of the ppund today.
A number of forecast that the US enconomy recovery and the UK economy may need to print more money. There is however no news and data that directly backs them up.
Technically, the pound may trade within the range 1.6080 and 1.5785.
Support is at 1.5785, then 1.5520.
Resistance is at 1.6080, then 1.620.
Trend: Bearish, but may move side around the trading range stated.
Friday, June 05, 2009
5 June 2009
GU Analysis:
The Pound bounced off the resistance line at 1.6670 down to 1.6115.
GBP/USD raised its head when Halifax HPI in Britain showed an unexpected big gain. The BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged, and to to keep the Quantitative program unchanged. Traders were expecting more, and the Pound fell back. Today, we’ll see if Britain also suffers from deflation. PPI input will draw attention at 1630hrs SGT.
Yesterday, Ben Bernenke's announcement about the gradual recovery have encouraged the traders to take profit and reevaluate the current situation. Dow came down to close at 8666 and the dollar could get off its year low versus the British pound but yesterday the risk appetite has been brought back to the market pushing DOW above 8700 again putting the greenback under pressure.
Looking technically first at the CCI, it showed a down and no clear indication whether it will reverse up or continue down. The 1=hour chart provide clues to where the support which is at current 1.609, then 1.595, then 1.588.
Resistance is at 1.630, then 1.642.
Overall bearish, but expect a rebound off the support at around 1.59 region.
The Pound bounced off the resistance line at 1.6670 down to 1.6115.
GBP/USD raised its head when Halifax HPI in Britain showed an unexpected big gain. The BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged, and to to keep the Quantitative program unchanged. Traders were expecting more, and the Pound fell back. Today, we’ll see if Britain also suffers from deflation. PPI input will draw attention at 1630hrs SGT.
Yesterday, Ben Bernenke's announcement about the gradual recovery have encouraged the traders to take profit and reevaluate the current situation. Dow came down to close at 8666 and the dollar could get off its year low versus the British pound but yesterday the risk appetite has been brought back to the market pushing DOW above 8700 again putting the greenback under pressure.
Looking technically first at the CCI, it showed a down and no clear indication whether it will reverse up or continue down. The 1=hour chart provide clues to where the support which is at current 1.609, then 1.595, then 1.588.
Resistance is at 1.630, then 1.642.
Overall bearish, but expect a rebound off the support at around 1.59 region.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
4 June 2009
GU Analysis:
Is yesterday fall a retracement or a change in trend?
In UK all the good news with Serive PMI showed a better than expected results. Tonight BoE at 1900hrs, will announce their plans. How the British pound responds to the rate decision will likely depend on the BOE’s stance in their policy statement. Signs that the BOE may increase their gilt purchases could weigh heavily on the British pound, especially against the euro, while the opposite (steady rates, no QE expansion) could provide a boost to the UK’s currency, though the markets are just as likely to show no reaction in this case. (from DailyFx)
The Dow and commodities market did a reversal, for either profit taking or showing signs of uncomfortable evidences that the growth may not be as expected. Wall Street fell after the disappointing figures were released from manufacturing PMI and factory output. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, meanwhile, said Wednesday that the economy will begin growing later this year, but the improvement will be slight. He has shifted his focus on debts rather than his "green shoots" theory.
Technically, yesterday's candle mark a bearish engulfment. CCI pointed down, but may be short live as the indicator came down not from the top of the BB, but below. But pound has been overbought for a long time, it may need a breather. Using Fib retracement, support is at 1.612, then 1.578.
Looking at the 1hour chat, GU is now supported at 1.622 and may confine in the trading range of 1.622 and 1.646. A break up from 1.646 will show that it is only a short retracement and GU will find resistance at 1.665, then may journeyed towards its target 1.7.
Trend: Still bullish with assumption that yesterday trade was just a technical retracement.
Is yesterday fall a retracement or a change in trend?
In UK all the good news with Serive PMI showed a better than expected results. Tonight BoE at 1900hrs, will announce their plans. How the British pound responds to the rate decision will likely depend on the BOE’s stance in their policy statement. Signs that the BOE may increase their gilt purchases could weigh heavily on the British pound, especially against the euro, while the opposite (steady rates, no QE expansion) could provide a boost to the UK’s currency, though the markets are just as likely to show no reaction in this case. (from DailyFx)
The Dow and commodities market did a reversal, for either profit taking or showing signs of uncomfortable evidences that the growth may not be as expected. Wall Street fell after the disappointing figures were released from manufacturing PMI and factory output. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, meanwhile, said Wednesday that the economy will begin growing later this year, but the improvement will be slight. He has shifted his focus on debts rather than his "green shoots" theory.
Technically, yesterday's candle mark a bearish engulfment. CCI pointed down, but may be short live as the indicator came down not from the top of the BB, but below. But pound has been overbought for a long time, it may need a breather. Using Fib retracement, support is at 1.612, then 1.578.
Looking at the 1hour chat, GU is now supported at 1.622 and may confine in the trading range of 1.622 and 1.646. A break up from 1.646 will show that it is only a short retracement and GU will find resistance at 1.665, then may journeyed towards its target 1.7.
Trend: Still bullish with assumption that yesterday trade was just a technical retracement.
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
3 June 2009
GU Analysis
UK Construction PMI showed sign of easing and that was a tripple followed, last week Halifax HPI, Monday's Manufacturing PMI, yesterday Construction PMI.
Today we have Service PMI at 1630hrs SGT.
The pound start to retrace when it reached 1.65, dropping almost 150 pips before this PMI news push the pound back to almost 1.66. All the good news will continue the rally in pound.
At the US side, good housing news has rally the DOW up. Today we have unemployment rate, which may top 9%, but showed sign of easing.
Now, what may slowed the pound down is probably some profit taking and retracement, technically. The CCI showed sign of tapering or squeezing, indicating slow down and side way movement.
Resistance is at 1.69 and 1.702 region. The next one is at 1.77 then 1.82 (50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491).
Support is at 1.638, then 1.623.
Overall trend is bullish, but expect retracement and some side way movement, before the market gain new high or alter its course of direction.
UK Construction PMI showed sign of easing and that was a tripple followed, last week Halifax HPI, Monday's Manufacturing PMI, yesterday Construction PMI.
Today we have Service PMI at 1630hrs SGT.
The pound start to retrace when it reached 1.65, dropping almost 150 pips before this PMI news push the pound back to almost 1.66. All the good news will continue the rally in pound.
At the US side, good housing news has rally the DOW up. Today we have unemployment rate, which may top 9%, but showed sign of easing.
Now, what may slowed the pound down is probably some profit taking and retracement, technically. The CCI showed sign of tapering or squeezing, indicating slow down and side way movement.
Resistance is at 1.69 and 1.702 region. The next one is at 1.77 then 1.82 (50% fib retracement of 2.0156-1.3491).
Support is at 1.638, then 1.623.
Overall trend is bullish, but expect retracement and some side way movement, before the market gain new high or alter its course of direction.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
2 June 2009
0800hrs SGT
The Dow rallied again and comodities prices rose. All these point to an economy that is recovering or at least it seem to be.
FSTE rose and Manufacturing PMI show improvement. This is the second set of important UK data after Halifax HPI. Today the data to look for is Construction PMI at 1630SGT.
GU gave an impressive run to almost 1.65 yesterday. The pound has been too oversold since the credit crunch down from its high of >2.000 to low of abt 1.35, it has potential to climb to 1.72, a 50% retracement. Coupled with the overbought USD during the crisis and the trillions of pump in, the dollars has significantly weaken.
Looking immediate at the resistance it is at 1.658, then 1.703. CCI as mentioned, has been short lived for short. It has rebound up from the lower BB and is heading up.
Taking a look at the hour chart, and using Fib retracement, support is at 1.638 and 1.630.
Overall trend is up, but may move down for some consolidation.
The Dow rallied again and comodities prices rose. All these point to an economy that is recovering or at least it seem to be.
FSTE rose and Manufacturing PMI show improvement. This is the second set of important UK data after Halifax HPI. Today the data to look for is Construction PMI at 1630SGT.
GU gave an impressive run to almost 1.65 yesterday. The pound has been too oversold since the credit crunch down from its high of >2.000 to low of abt 1.35, it has potential to climb to 1.72, a 50% retracement. Coupled with the overbought USD during the crisis and the trillions of pump in, the dollars has significantly weaken.
Looking immediate at the resistance it is at 1.658, then 1.703. CCI as mentioned, has been short lived for short. It has rebound up from the lower BB and is heading up.
Taking a look at the hour chart, and using Fib retracement, support is at 1.638 and 1.630.
Overall trend is up, but may move down for some consolidation.
Monday, June 01, 2009
1 June 2009
GBPUSD:
Halifax HPI for the first time the house index has stop falling for the last 20months. Today with Manufacturing PMI releasing at 2030hrs, it is expected to raise from 42 to 44, though under 50, but it will be good enough to see the pound continue on its trend higher.
Technically, GU has gain above support at 1.6, hit 1.62. It should face its first major resistance at 1.68. Though very heavily oversold, but CCI has indicated that any down is only short live. It may dive lower for some retracement to 1.597 and 1.579
Holiday in NZ, France and Germany and that will make the Asian and Europe trading session quiet, before the news at 2030hrs. Trading range is expected at 1.62 and 1.612. Any breaks from this range will allow GU to hit towards 1.64 then 1.68 or go down to 1.602 then to 1.597.
Overall, GU trend is still long.
Halifax HPI for the first time the house index has stop falling for the last 20months. Today with Manufacturing PMI releasing at 2030hrs, it is expected to raise from 42 to 44, though under 50, but it will be good enough to see the pound continue on its trend higher.
Technically, GU has gain above support at 1.6, hit 1.62. It should face its first major resistance at 1.68. Though very heavily oversold, but CCI has indicated that any down is only short live. It may dive lower for some retracement to 1.597 and 1.579
Holiday in NZ, France and Germany and that will make the Asian and Europe trading session quiet, before the news at 2030hrs. Trading range is expected at 1.62 and 1.612. Any breaks from this range will allow GU to hit towards 1.64 then 1.68 or go down to 1.602 then to 1.597.
Overall, GU trend is still long.
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