23 July 2015; GBP/USD
1 question: which economy will do better? UK or US.
Yesterday on 23 July 2015, BoE had decided not to raise interest rates yet, but has agreed that interest rate will rise (for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis). As a result, the pound went up against the USD at 1630hrs SGT.
But the gains was taken back after US reported better homes sales, a sign of better economic performance. Homes sales beat forecast at 5.40m to 5.49m.
Today, I am expecting the pound to gain first at news on UK retail sales. But because of US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT (which was expected to be lower, lower claims means better US economic performances) and as such will bring the pound down.
I will put a sell at 1.563 and take profit at 1.554. Support at 1.559 (1hr EMA 55, 100 and 200 - converging). Next support at 1.556 (daily EMA55) and at 1.550 (daily EMA 100 and 200).
A break above 1.57 is consider a reversal in the downward trend.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Thursday, May 08, 2014
8 May 2014; GBPUSD
8 May 2014; GBPUSD
As I write, the UK HPI -housing sales which is a leading indicator, was down and was at-0.2% instead of +0.8% forecast.
As a result, GU will hang at support at 1.696, then 1.692 before going to 1.688.
CCI indicate a over bought and with the data, the technical also support a down trend. The USD index showed a low for the year. Therefore after GU hit a high of around 1.700, it is some time for profit taking and reversal and consolidation.
Resistance is at 1.6980/ 1.6990.
As I write, the UK HPI -housing sales which is a leading indicator, was down and was at-0.2% instead of +0.8% forecast.
As a result, GU will hang at support at 1.696, then 1.692 before going to 1.688.
CCI indicate a over bought and with the data, the technical also support a down trend. The USD index showed a low for the year. Therefore after GU hit a high of around 1.700, it is some time for profit taking and reversal and consolidation.
Resistance is at 1.6980/ 1.6990.
Wednesday, May 07, 2014
7 May 2014; GBPUSD
7 May 2014; GBPUSD
It is a good spike up to hit near 1.700 from a break at 1.690. The support is the better than expected news coming from Spain unemployment claim as well as UK PMI.
It is now a watch on whether the pound will clear 1.700 with 1.705 a resistance line. In the meanwhile, the support is now at 1.6960/ 1.6970. Then at 1.6920.
Sell at 1.6980 and take profit at 1.6970. But remove sell position when price hit 1.700.
Buy at either 1.6960 or 1.6920. A break below 1.6920 will gain the next support at 1.6880. 1.6830 is a strong support.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout up at 1.705 to buy and wait for break down at 1.6960.
It is a good spike up to hit near 1.700 from a break at 1.690. The support is the better than expected news coming from Spain unemployment claim as well as UK PMI.
It is now a watch on whether the pound will clear 1.700 with 1.705 a resistance line. In the meanwhile, the support is now at 1.6960/ 1.6970. Then at 1.6920.
Sell at 1.6980 and take profit at 1.6970. But remove sell position when price hit 1.700.
Buy at either 1.6960 or 1.6920. A break below 1.6920 will gain the next support at 1.6880. 1.6830 is a strong support.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout up at 1.705 to buy and wait for break down at 1.6960.
Tuesday, May 06, 2014
6 May 2014; GBPUSD
6 May 2014; GBPUSD
The news to watch is at 1630hrs SGT on UK PMI.
The pound has been going up with support at 1.686/ 1.686 (1 hour EMA200). The news will determine whether GU will ascend further towards 1.70/ 1.6990 the psychological level. Next is 1.720 / 1.718 the October 2008 resistance line.
UK has been doing well in its Purchasing Manager Index - It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
It has been above 50 and reaches a height of 60.5 in Sep 2013, but decline to 57.6 last month. The decline is gradual, but above 50 shows that the UK is still buying. In contrast, US PMI is also above 50 and now stands at 54.9 last month. The trend is that it is on the up since it drop to 51.3 in Jan 2014.
So both economy looks good. The stocks market indexes are moving up. UK is slowing down, US is steadying up, with UK buying more than US.
Most advice is to stand at the side line or favoured an attempt of the GU to hit 1.70.
GU reaches a new high of 1.692 last week, so a good sell is at 1.695, take profit fast but remove position if price breached 1.705. Even lower is at 1.6885 and take profit at 1.6876 (1 hour EMA 21/55 line support line)
Alternatively buy at 1 hour EMA200 line at 1.6860. If support is not breached then wait or release by batches the purchase at 1.6870, 1.6880 and 1.6890. Also wait and buy at daily EMA21 line at 1.6835.
If GU goes beyond 1.705 it is a break up else 1.682 is a break down.
The news to watch is at 1630hrs SGT on UK PMI.
The pound has been going up with support at 1.686/ 1.686 (1 hour EMA200). The news will determine whether GU will ascend further towards 1.70/ 1.6990 the psychological level. Next is 1.720 / 1.718 the October 2008 resistance line.
UK has been doing well in its Purchasing Manager Index - It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
It has been above 50 and reaches a height of 60.5 in Sep 2013, but decline to 57.6 last month. The decline is gradual, but above 50 shows that the UK is still buying. In contrast, US PMI is also above 50 and now stands at 54.9 last month. The trend is that it is on the up since it drop to 51.3 in Jan 2014.
So both economy looks good. The stocks market indexes are moving up. UK is slowing down, US is steadying up, with UK buying more than US.
Most advice is to stand at the side line or favoured an attempt of the GU to hit 1.70.
GU reaches a new high of 1.692 last week, so a good sell is at 1.695, take profit fast but remove position if price breached 1.705. Even lower is at 1.6885 and take profit at 1.6876 (1 hour EMA 21/55 line support line)
Alternatively buy at 1 hour EMA200 line at 1.6860. If support is not breached then wait or release by batches the purchase at 1.6870, 1.6880 and 1.6890. Also wait and buy at daily EMA21 line at 1.6835.
If GU goes beyond 1.705 it is a break up else 1.682 is a break down.
Monday, May 05, 2014
5 May 2014; GBPUSD
5 May 2014; GBPUSD
After a long break for holiday, it looks that GU made a climb and break out of its 1.680, then 1.6850 resistance line.
Accordingly, since Mar 24, GU has made the climb. The peak was reach just last Thursday. Using a Fib retracement on a daily chart the new resistance line is at 1.720. Given a large gap between now at 1.6875 to 1.7200, the intermediate resistance is at 1.692, then the psychological line at 1.700, then 1.7070.
What support the upward movement is that BoE monetary policy and the support for capital flow that is in favour for a long. Economic data releases has shown that UK is doing better. PMI releases tomorrow at 1630hrs SGT is a critical to continue supporting the upward trend.
On the technicals, GU has been largely overbought. There has no indicator that show a up. But neither does it show a down as CCI(34) on the daily moves side and no over bought.
As such, potential if GU goes down, it will be a good buy at 1.6854 (1hour EMA200) and at 1.6830 (daily EMA21). Or to buy or breakout at above 1.694. Take small profits and beware of resistance at 1.6875, 1.692 and 1.700.
Support is at the buying entry at 1.6854, 1.6830 and 1.6744 (Fib retracement and daily EMA55).
After a long break for holiday, it looks that GU made a climb and break out of its 1.680, then 1.6850 resistance line.
Accordingly, since Mar 24, GU has made the climb. The peak was reach just last Thursday. Using a Fib retracement on a daily chart the new resistance line is at 1.720. Given a large gap between now at 1.6875 to 1.7200, the intermediate resistance is at 1.692, then the psychological line at 1.700, then 1.7070.
What support the upward movement is that BoE monetary policy and the support for capital flow that is in favour for a long. Economic data releases has shown that UK is doing better. PMI releases tomorrow at 1630hrs SGT is a critical to continue supporting the upward trend.
On the technicals, GU has been largely overbought. There has no indicator that show a up. But neither does it show a down as CCI(34) on the daily moves side and no over bought.
As such, potential if GU goes down, it will be a good buy at 1.6854 (1hour EMA200) and at 1.6830 (daily EMA21). Or to buy or breakout at above 1.694. Take small profits and beware of resistance at 1.6875, 1.692 and 1.700.
Support is at the buying entry at 1.6854, 1.6830 and 1.6744 (Fib retracement and daily EMA55).
Thursday, April 17, 2014
17 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
17 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
What do you have to say? GU attempt to break pass 1.6840-50 to set a new high from 2009!
Will it fail today or will it succeed leaving a trail this long weekend?
There will be retracement, but the price now hovers between 1.6810 and 1.6840 since last evening (SGT) till now.
As such, play when a break occurs.
Enter a buy if GU breaks 1.6850 and abandon position if the break up does not occur and price return to 1.6810. Take profit at the next resistance at the half way mark around 1.6950.
Enter a sell if GU breaks 1.6820 and abandon position if break down does not occur and price return to 1.6830. Take profit at next support at 1.6800, then 1.6750.
What do you have to say? GU attempt to break pass 1.6840-50 to set a new high from 2009!
Will it fail today or will it succeed leaving a trail this long weekend?
There will be retracement, but the price now hovers between 1.6810 and 1.6840 since last evening (SGT) till now.
As such, play when a break occurs.
Enter a buy if GU breaks 1.6850 and abandon position if the break up does not occur and price return to 1.6810. Take profit at the next resistance at the half way mark around 1.6950.
Enter a sell if GU breaks 1.6820 and abandon position if break down does not occur and price return to 1.6830. Take profit at next support at 1.6800, then 1.6750.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
16 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
16 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
I still maintain a down trend - with technicals from my CCI(14) coupled with BB(14, 0.9) and BB(14,1.2). The CCI is still in the BB region and has not exit after being over bought at 250 points.
It is a see-saw from the news. A "better" UK economic report at 1630hrs SGT yesterday and followed a decision by the Fed that US will maintain interest rate (a sign that the economy is still not ready for recovery).
The news force the pound to climb above 1.6730 and later to 1.6750. It did not break resistance at 1.6760.
Today at 1630hrs SGT we have UK claimant payout. It is expected that the UK to be doing better with less payout. Will that force the pound to climb and break resistance at 1.6760 - possible. If by doing so, the next level of resistance is at 1.6800 to 1.6820 region.
A failure to break above 1.6760 and a break below 1.6690 is the support at 1.6660. The price now is hover between 1.6740 and 1.6710.
From the 1 hour chart support is at EMA200 at 1.6710.
As such it will be a good wait for the news and see the direction. Alternative sell at around 1.6740 and buy around 1.6710 before the news and take small profits. Abandon position if a break occur at 1.6750 and below 1.6690.
If you are playing the 15 minutes using BB(14, 1.8), wait after the first candle after breakout. Again followed the abandon plan as mention above.
I still maintain a down trend - with technicals from my CCI(14) coupled with BB(14, 0.9) and BB(14,1.2). The CCI is still in the BB region and has not exit after being over bought at 250 points.
It is a see-saw from the news. A "better" UK economic report at 1630hrs SGT yesterday and followed a decision by the Fed that US will maintain interest rate (a sign that the economy is still not ready for recovery).
The news force the pound to climb above 1.6730 and later to 1.6750. It did not break resistance at 1.6760.
Today at 1630hrs SGT we have UK claimant payout. It is expected that the UK to be doing better with less payout. Will that force the pound to climb and break resistance at 1.6760 - possible. If by doing so, the next level of resistance is at 1.6800 to 1.6820 region.
A failure to break above 1.6760 and a break below 1.6690 is the support at 1.6660. The price now is hover between 1.6740 and 1.6710.
From the 1 hour chart support is at EMA200 at 1.6710.
As such it will be a good wait for the news and see the direction. Alternative sell at around 1.6740 and buy around 1.6710 before the news and take small profits. Abandon position if a break occur at 1.6750 and below 1.6690.
If you are playing the 15 minutes using BB(14, 1.8), wait after the first candle after breakout. Again followed the abandon plan as mention above.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
15 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
15 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
CCI (Daily) showed a down trend. Will there be any fundamentals that support the trend?
At 1630hrs, UK is reporting is inflation numbers (CPI) and in a likely beat, the number will be down and thus drawing a possible reversal in the trend.
Coupled at 1700hrs SGT, the German economic sentiments is also expect to improve.
As such, it will be nice to wait for the release of the news before a entry.
GU break the support at 1.6717 and now hovers in the region between 1.6680 and 1.6710 (1 hour EMA200). If the price breaks 1.6680 with the news release (failed to meet expectation), GU will hit towards 1.6660 then 1.6630. A support sustain by the daily EMA21 and EMA55 respectively.
On the up trend support is at 1.6720 then 1.6760 (Daily chart Fib retracement).
A good entry will be after the news release and wait for the price to break below 1.6680 to 1.6670. A shot down to the next support at 1.6660-1.6630 to take profit.
On the other hand, a break above 1.6730 (clear all EMA from 1 hour chart) with the entry after the news. Take profit at resistance line 1.6745 to 1.6760.
CCI (Daily) showed a down trend. Will there be any fundamentals that support the trend?
At 1630hrs, UK is reporting is inflation numbers (CPI) and in a likely beat, the number will be down and thus drawing a possible reversal in the trend.
Coupled at 1700hrs SGT, the German economic sentiments is also expect to improve.
As such, it will be nice to wait for the release of the news before a entry.
GU break the support at 1.6717 and now hovers in the region between 1.6680 and 1.6710 (1 hour EMA200). If the price breaks 1.6680 with the news release (failed to meet expectation), GU will hit towards 1.6660 then 1.6630. A support sustain by the daily EMA21 and EMA55 respectively.
On the up trend support is at 1.6720 then 1.6760 (Daily chart Fib retracement).
A good entry will be after the news release and wait for the price to break below 1.6680 to 1.6670. A shot down to the next support at 1.6660-1.6630 to take profit.
On the other hand, a break above 1.6730 (clear all EMA from 1 hour chart) with the entry after the news. Take profit at resistance line 1.6745 to 1.6760.
Monday, April 14, 2014
14 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
14 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
With an attempt for the GU but failed to break above 1.6850 (a high in 2009), GU will find its retracement to the Fib level at 1.6757 then 1.6717. It look like a support is formed at 1.6720 region.
There is no major news in the afternoon to break the price above or below the support. It will then be in the evening during US trading period to look out for 2030hrsSGT US retail sales.
In an event if the price is sustained above 1.6700, then the GU will hovers in the region towards 1.6800. Else if the price breaks below 1.6680, GU will hit towards support at 1.6650.
CCI daily is set on a down trend mode. After over bought at 150 (>250), CCI enters the BB(14, 1.2) and also BB(14, 0.9). To further support the down trend, we need some fundamentals. The meeting from the bankers in Europe caution that not all economy are on the ways to recovery. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. -CNBC
The stock market opens with caution - Asian market is mixed and the European market open down. This was after last week sell off.
As such, a sell is favoured, butas the support is near 1.6717, a rebound is possible. As such sell at around 1.6740-1.6750 and take small profits or wait for break out below 1.6700 to sell and take profit at support around 1.6680.
With an attempt for the GU but failed to break above 1.6850 (a high in 2009), GU will find its retracement to the Fib level at 1.6757 then 1.6717. It look like a support is formed at 1.6720 region.
There is no major news in the afternoon to break the price above or below the support. It will then be in the evening during US trading period to look out for 2030hrsSGT US retail sales.
In an event if the price is sustained above 1.6700, then the GU will hovers in the region towards 1.6800. Else if the price breaks below 1.6680, GU will hit towards support at 1.6650.
CCI daily is set on a down trend mode. After over bought at 150 (>250), CCI enters the BB(14, 1.2) and also BB(14, 0.9). To further support the down trend, we need some fundamentals. The meeting from the bankers in Europe caution that not all economy are on the ways to recovery. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. -CNBC
The stock market opens with caution - Asian market is mixed and the European market open down. This was after last week sell off.
As such, a sell is favoured, butas the support is near 1.6717, a rebound is possible. As such sell at around 1.6740-1.6750 and take small profits or wait for break out below 1.6700 to sell and take profit at support around 1.6680.
Friday, April 11, 2014
11 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
11 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
Daily CCI indicate a potential down. However, caution has to be taken as the CCI though over bought has not cut the BB(14, 1.2) line. There are news today at 2030hrs on US PPI (Producer Price Index) and at 2155hrs SGT, US Consumer sentiments.
GU has hit high at 1.6820. Will it climb higher? If yes, I set the resistance at 1.6850. That if upon breaking through it will go higher to 1.6950 (a half way mark between 1.7050 and 1.6850. This will be the new region for GU should it break 1.6850 barrier.
Support is at 1.6680, a large gap to go. Intermediate support is at 1.6760 (1 hour EMA55), 1.6725 (1 hour EMA 100) and then 1.6680 which is also 1 hour EMA200.
Trade selling GU when it reach 15min high outside BB(14, 1.8) and take small profits. Buy at intermediate support and also take small profits. Do not leave open position before the US news.
Daily CCI indicate a potential down. However, caution has to be taken as the CCI though over bought has not cut the BB(14, 1.2) line. There are news today at 2030hrs on US PPI (Producer Price Index) and at 2155hrs SGT, US Consumer sentiments.
GU has hit high at 1.6820. Will it climb higher? If yes, I set the resistance at 1.6850. That if upon breaking through it will go higher to 1.6950 (a half way mark between 1.7050 and 1.6850. This will be the new region for GU should it break 1.6850 barrier.
Support is at 1.6680, a large gap to go. Intermediate support is at 1.6760 (1 hour EMA55), 1.6725 (1 hour EMA 100) and then 1.6680 which is also 1 hour EMA200.
Trade selling GU when it reach 15min high outside BB(14, 1.8) and take small profits. Buy at intermediate support and also take small profits. Do not leave open position before the US news.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
19 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
19 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
From last night FOMC, the US economy is still on the stage of recovery and not quite what Ms Yellen said earlier that rates is going raise soon (an indication of a better to do economy). On the other hand UK manufacturing products on Tuesday surprises all with a large positive gain - a return from negative zone. The 2 combination pushes GU up to a high that has not seen for the last 3 years.
What's next? Obvious resistance at 1.6800 - 1.6850. Will there be some consolidation?
In a likely case, there will be some consolidation around the resistance line, with the daily CCI pointing a an over bought position. Support is at 1.678 - 1.674, a half way mark between the Fib retracement line. So it is always good to find a buy around support and sell at resistance.
New today will come from UK 1900hrs SGT official bank rates. Then at 2030hrs SGT US unemployment claims.
If a break occurs above 1.6850 and is able to hold, it is good to abandon sell position and take buy towards the next resistance at 1.6950, the 50% mark between the Fib retracement line. Next level of support is at 1.6680, so again abandon buy when 1.674 line is breach.
From last night FOMC, the US economy is still on the stage of recovery and not quite what Ms Yellen said earlier that rates is going raise soon (an indication of a better to do economy). On the other hand UK manufacturing products on Tuesday surprises all with a large positive gain - a return from negative zone. The 2 combination pushes GU up to a high that has not seen for the last 3 years.
What's next? Obvious resistance at 1.6800 - 1.6850. Will there be some consolidation?
In a likely case, there will be some consolidation around the resistance line, with the daily CCI pointing a an over bought position. Support is at 1.678 - 1.674, a half way mark between the Fib retracement line. So it is always good to find a buy around support and sell at resistance.
New today will come from UK 1900hrs SGT official bank rates. Then at 2030hrs SGT US unemployment claims.
If a break occurs above 1.6850 and is able to hold, it is good to abandon sell position and take buy towards the next resistance at 1.6950, the 50% mark between the Fib retracement line. Next level of support is at 1.6680, so again abandon buy when 1.674 line is breach.
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
8 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
8 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
GU shot up and out of the hourly EMA200 and hit resistance at 1.6620. There are no news to support the action and in my opinion the price will most likely return to at least the EMA200 at 1.6600.
There are 1 UK news today - 1630hrs SGT UK manufacturing production. The news may send the pound higher than 1.6620 towards 1.6650 or end back at resistance level at 1.6605 then 1.6580.
Technically, CCI(14) at daily chart indicate a probability of the pound on the down trend.
GU shot up and out of the hourly EMA200 and hit resistance at 1.6620. There are no news to support the action and in my opinion the price will most likely return to at least the EMA200 at 1.6600.
There are 1 UK news today - 1630hrs SGT UK manufacturing production. The news may send the pound higher than 1.6620 towards 1.6650 or end back at resistance level at 1.6605 then 1.6580.
Technically, CCI(14) at daily chart indicate a probability of the pound on the down trend.
Monday, April 07, 2014
7 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
7 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
Is it the end of the down trend? From the daily CCI(14), it has exit the BB(14, 1.2), meaning an end. It now enter a phase of consolidation with a possible of reversal or a further down.
The UK economy performed relative weaker than the US last week. Today with little news to back any movement, I am expecting the GU to move side.
The price range is confined by daily EMA21/EMA55 as the resistance and daily EMA100 as the support. The price is respectively at 1.6600 and 1.652.
From the hour chart, it is around 1.6585 (EMA100) and 1.6560. Take small profits in either direction and enter trade around the resistance and support level.
Is it the end of the down trend? From the daily CCI(14), it has exit the BB(14, 1.2), meaning an end. It now enter a phase of consolidation with a possible of reversal or a further down.
The UK economy performed relative weaker than the US last week. Today with little news to back any movement, I am expecting the GU to move side.
The price range is confined by daily EMA21/EMA55 as the resistance and daily EMA100 as the support. The price is respectively at 1.6600 and 1.652.
From the hour chart, it is around 1.6585 (EMA100) and 1.6560. Take small profits in either direction and enter trade around the resistance and support level.
Friday, April 04, 2014
4 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
4 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
There is only a major news on US non-farm employment change at 2030hrsSGT. Unless the change is significant, else I am expecting the GU to move side way today.
After the UK Service PMI yesterday at 1630hrsSGT, GU went down below the resistance at 1.6600.
Daily CCI continues to point to a down trend. Support at 1.6580 (Daily EMA55), then 1.6530 (Daily EMA100).
Resistance at 1.6615 (1 hour chart EMA200, as well as Fib Retracement). Next level resistance at 1.6650.
Do catch a good sell at resistance line. If doing buy, remember it is down trend so take small profits.
Because in a likely case today that GU is moving side, the price range is 1.6600 and 1.6580, it is possible to trade within this range. But remember to release position before news time in order not to be caught in a wrong position.
There is only a major news on US non-farm employment change at 2030hrsSGT. Unless the change is significant, else I am expecting the GU to move side way today.
After the UK Service PMI yesterday at 1630hrsSGT, GU went down below the resistance at 1.6600.
Daily CCI continues to point to a down trend. Support at 1.6580 (Daily EMA55), then 1.6530 (Daily EMA100).
Resistance at 1.6615 (1 hour chart EMA200, as well as Fib Retracement). Next level resistance at 1.6650.
Do catch a good sell at resistance line. If doing buy, remember it is down trend so take small profits.
Because in a likely case today that GU is moving side, the price range is 1.6600 and 1.6580, it is possible to trade within this range. But remember to release position before news time in order not to be caught in a wrong position.
Thursday, April 03, 2014
3 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
3 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
On Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI is down, on Wednesday Construction PMI is down. Also the US non-farm employment change is positive. Overall the effect is a confirmation that the GU is on a down trend. Technical chart showed the CCI reverse and enter the daily BB(14, 0.9) - a good indicator in sync with the fundamental that GU is down.
Today we have UK service PMI at 1630 hrs SGT. According to forexcrunch which suggest the following
Support at 1.6620-1.6630 and next at 1.6580.
On Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI is down, on Wednesday Construction PMI is down. Also the US non-farm employment change is positive. Overall the effect is a confirmation that the GU is on a down trend. Technical chart showed the CCI reverse and enter the daily BB(14, 0.9) - a good indicator in sync with the fundamental that GU is down.
Today we have UK service PMI at 1630 hrs SGT. According to forexcrunch which suggest the following
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 50.0 to 56.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 56.1 to 60.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 60.0. The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome could prop up the GBP, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: 47.0 to 49.9: A reading below the 50-point level indicates contraction, and could push the pound below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below 47.0: A very weak reading could push see GBP/USD break through a second support level.
Support at 1.6620-1.6630 and next at 1.6580.
Wednesday, April 02, 2014
2 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
2 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
From the daily chart, GU has reached over bought - CCI above 100, the trend reverse and entered BB(14, 1.2) and further cuts BB(14, 0.9). It is a good indicate of a down trend. Further the 1 hour chart saw a dispersion with the EMA21 nows lies between EMA55 and EMA100.
Looking at the news - the Fed is not going to stay put. Ms Yellen mentioned that the US economy is still not on the path of recovery. As such not much effect will come from the US. A speech from BoE governor
Mark Carney, in his roles as chairman of the Financial Stability Board: Financial markets should prepare for higher interest rates Emerging markets have coped relatively well to date, with occasional bouts of turbulence US in early stages of normalization
A first good indication that the UK economy is performing better than US. A second confirmation will comes today at 1400hrs SGT on UK Nationwide HPI - a housing indicator, followed by UK construction PMI at 1630SGT. This will helps or otherwise distort the confirmation of a GU down trend.
Good sell is at the resistance - 1.6645- 1.6650 (Fib retracement from 1-hour chart). If resistance is taken further down at 1.6635 it will be based on the 1-hour chart EMA100. Further up is at 1.6700.
Support is at 1.6615 -20 (1 hour chart EMA200), then 1.6590 (Daily chart EMA21/EMa55). Support will become resistance if broken.
If you buy - take small profits.
From the daily chart, GU has reached over bought - CCI above 100, the trend reverse and entered BB(14, 1.2) and further cuts BB(14, 0.9). It is a good indicate of a down trend. Further the 1 hour chart saw a dispersion with the EMA21 nows lies between EMA55 and EMA100.
Looking at the news - the Fed is not going to stay put. Ms Yellen mentioned that the US economy is still not on the path of recovery. As such not much effect will come from the US. A speech from BoE governor
Mark Carney, in his roles as chairman of the Financial Stability Board: Financial markets should prepare for higher interest rates Emerging markets have coped relatively well to date, with occasional bouts of turbulence US in early stages of normalization
A first good indication that the UK economy is performing better than US. A second confirmation will comes today at 1400hrs SGT on UK Nationwide HPI - a housing indicator, followed by UK construction PMI at 1630SGT. This will helps or otherwise distort the confirmation of a GU down trend.
Good sell is at the resistance - 1.6645- 1.6650 (Fib retracement from 1-hour chart). If resistance is taken further down at 1.6635 it will be based on the 1-hour chart EMA100. Further up is at 1.6700.
Support is at 1.6615 -20 (1 hour chart EMA200), then 1.6590 (Daily chart EMA21/EMa55). Support will become resistance if broken.
If you buy - take small profits.
Tuesday, April 01, 2014
1 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
1 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
GU hit resistance line at 1.6680. This create another resistance at 1.6700 if 1.6680 is breached, based on the daily BB(14,2).
Will the GU goes up further or lower. With Ms Yellen speech, it looks like QE is not going to change much. The US stock market rally.
The news on UK PMI at 1630hrs may affect the direction. The upside has 1.668 to 1.670 while the downside is supported by daily EMA21 at 1.663-1.662. CCI(14) indicate a trend with a potential to swing down. But news does affect direction.
For today, a good sell will be around 1.668 and above (if it is before the news) while a buy at around 1.663 to 1.662 is good. Again as CCI(14) is in a no trend - take small profit.
At current and for the whole morning, price is confine by BB(14, 1.8) using a 15min chart. Wait and see the reaction after the first breakout candle, before entering trade.
GU hit resistance line at 1.6680. This create another resistance at 1.6700 if 1.6680 is breached, based on the daily BB(14,2).
Will the GU goes up further or lower. With Ms Yellen speech, it looks like QE is not going to change much. The US stock market rally.
The news on UK PMI at 1630hrs may affect the direction. The upside has 1.668 to 1.670 while the downside is supported by daily EMA21 at 1.663-1.662. CCI(14) indicate a trend with a potential to swing down. But news does affect direction.
For today, a good sell will be around 1.668 and above (if it is before the news) while a buy at around 1.663 to 1.662 is good. Again as CCI(14) is in a no trend - take small profit.
At current and for the whole morning, price is confine by BB(14, 1.8) using a 15min chart. Wait and see the reaction after the first breakout candle, before entering trade.
Monday, March 31, 2014
31 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
31 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
A quick view on the daily chart shows that the up trend of the GU (pound) has plateaued. Will the trend reverse or continue its up trend?
This week, starting on Monday, Ms Yellen is speaking tonight. The message probably has effect on how the intention to raise rates is confirmed by the actual ground data that the US economy is doing well or otherwise. We have unemployment claims on Thursday and unemployment rates on Friday.
What will the EU and UK followed the actions of the Fed? Thursday we have the EU bid rates, ECB conferences.
Today, accordingly to the daily EMA21 which set the support at 1.6600 and 1.6685 the resistance (daily BB(14, 2) ). CCI(14) has flatten - so in a likely case the price will move side in a range of 1.6620 (1 hour chart EMA21) and 1.6660 or otherwise within the support and resistance. So it will be a good to trade buying around 1.660 and 1.6620 and take small profits, abandoning buy position if price goes below 1.6580. Likewise a sell within 1.6650 and 1.6670 and take small profits, abandoning sell position when price goes above 1.6685.
Caution: watch out for news announcement and wait to see if there is disruption of trend above or below the daily support or resistance.
A quick view on the daily chart shows that the up trend of the GU (pound) has plateaued. Will the trend reverse or continue its up trend?
This week, starting on Monday, Ms Yellen is speaking tonight. The message probably has effect on how the intention to raise rates is confirmed by the actual ground data that the US economy is doing well or otherwise. We have unemployment claims on Thursday and unemployment rates on Friday.
What will the EU and UK followed the actions of the Fed? Thursday we have the EU bid rates, ECB conferences.
Today, accordingly to the daily EMA21 which set the support at 1.6600 and 1.6685 the resistance (daily BB(14, 2) ). CCI(14) has flatten - so in a likely case the price will move side in a range of 1.6620 (1 hour chart EMA21) and 1.6660 or otherwise within the support and resistance. So it will be a good to trade buying around 1.660 and 1.6620 and take small profits, abandoning buy position if price goes below 1.6580. Likewise a sell within 1.6650 and 1.6670 and take small profits, abandoning sell position when price goes above 1.6685.
Caution: watch out for news announcement and wait to see if there is disruption of trend above or below the daily support or resistance.
Friday, March 28, 2014
28 Mar 2014; Trading GBPUSD
28 Mar 2014; Trading GBPUSD
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.com and http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.com and http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
28 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
28 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
As mentioned in last week post, the pound is going for a uptrend. It starts to reverse at 1.6460 and has hit a high at 1.6650. The indicator that helps predict this is the daily CCI(14) coupled with two BB around it with 0.9 and 1.2. An oversold occur and when the CCI hits the first BB band, it is a good buy till the CCI exit the top most BB and the CCI gradient reverse (which has yet to).
The first buy was on the 14 Mar around the price of 1.6620 (a quarter of my available margin) and a second buy on 24 Mar around 1.6480.
I can still wait for the reverse signal, but as it is nearing the end of the month, the opportunity came to close the first buy at 1.6642 and half of the second buy at 1.6600. I am leaving the rest for the reverse signal or till the last Friday of the month which is today.
It is a 2 weeks of roller coaster. The first was Ms Yellen speech and indication that the Fed rates will rises on the 20 Mar. This brought the pound down. It was followed by a series of better to do US unemployment claims but contradicted US homes sales . So it gives ground to continue to support a buy.
The week 23 Mar open with the UK CPI maintain low at 1.7%. The boost came from the UK retail data which indicate a good confidence than expected.
Today, we have one big news on the UK current money supply at 1730hrs SGT. It is directly linked to currency demand and is expected to continue a rising trend in surplus which indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in UK.
As such it is still a good buy, but because it is nearing the end of the uptrend (CCI is out of the BB) a reversal is possible. Using Fib retracement, the support is at 1.6575 (50%) which is also the daily EMA21 and EMA55 (merging two lines indicating strong support). As such a good buy region.
On the sell side, resistance is at around 1.6680/ 1.6700, the half way between Fib Retracement.
As mentioned in last week post, the pound is going for a uptrend. It starts to reverse at 1.6460 and has hit a high at 1.6650. The indicator that helps predict this is the daily CCI(14) coupled with two BB around it with 0.9 and 1.2. An oversold occur and when the CCI hits the first BB band, it is a good buy till the CCI exit the top most BB and the CCI gradient reverse (which has yet to).
The first buy was on the 14 Mar around the price of 1.6620 (a quarter of my available margin) and a second buy on 24 Mar around 1.6480.
I can still wait for the reverse signal, but as it is nearing the end of the month, the opportunity came to close the first buy at 1.6642 and half of the second buy at 1.6600. I am leaving the rest for the reverse signal or till the last Friday of the month which is today.
It is a 2 weeks of roller coaster. The first was Ms Yellen speech and indication that the Fed rates will rises on the 20 Mar. This brought the pound down. It was followed by a series of better to do US unemployment claims but contradicted US homes sales . So it gives ground to continue to support a buy.
The week 23 Mar open with the UK CPI maintain low at 1.7%. The boost came from the UK retail data which indicate a good confidence than expected.
Today, we have one big news on the UK current money supply at 1730hrs SGT. It is directly linked to currency demand and is expected to continue a rising trend in surplus which indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in UK.
As such it is still a good buy, but because it is nearing the end of the uptrend (CCI is out of the BB) a reversal is possible. Using Fib retracement, the support is at 1.6575 (50%) which is also the daily EMA21 and EMA55 (merging two lines indicating strong support). As such a good buy region.
On the sell side, resistance is at around 1.6680/ 1.6700, the half way between Fib Retracement.
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