Thursday, January 02, 2014

2 Jan 2014; GBPUSD

GBPUSD 

A good new year for 2014.

A good year for the pound. Ever since it overrun above 1.56 it has not look back and now it has hit above 1.65!    A good 1000 pips run.

2 main reasons for the run -  a better than expected and confidence in the US market and the UK market.

The Fed has mentioned to ease quality easing - an indication that the market is on the road of recovery. Market confidence is as hown by Consumer confidence - PMI reach 78!

BoE has indicated a raise of interest rate earlier before 2016 - an indication that the market is doing well. In fact UK has signs of improving consumer confidence as house prices rise and the job market recovers.

So the question is how high and when to enter a buy?

Friday, May 10, 2013

10 May 2013; Meeting 2% Target

I set for myself a return of just 2% return on investment for my captial.

This will reduce stress and there is no need to monitor the trades all time round the day.

BTW I just met my 2% target.

That's is only 10 days from 1 May, less than 8 days of trade.

Of course you may ask what is 2%? That is for a 200K I am willing to put in as a downpayment for a property -> 4K! (I did not say I have a capital of 200K). A downpayment for a house is 20% and a property cost for a 2B room is about 1 Mil.

I will stop trading now and will just monitor and start to put in trade in 1 June.

10 May 2013; GBPUSD

GBPUSD

The pound took a dive from EMA200 at 1.556-1.557 to reach EMA100 at 1.543. It hit EMA100 and now is hovering at that level.

The next major news is 1630SGT UK Trade Balance. The news may subject the pound to continue its downward movement, expecting a weaker report. Support is at 1.540 or EMA55.

Of course G7 is meeting and the expectation is that monetary policy will be used. Rates will continue to be kept low, flooding the market with easy money. The stock market has moved up with DOW staying above 15000, so are the Euro markets.

The pound is now at the Fib support line.

CCI is down and has yet to show sign of reversal.

 I expectation is for the support at 1.54 with a potential for a short reversal up ward towards 1.55 EMA200.

Wednesday, May 08, 2013

8 May 2013; GBPUSD

GBPUSD

Dow stay above 15000 with support from better job data. This gives boost to USD.

Pound begin to move down after that piece of news at 2200hrs SGT last night.

The German news on factory orders yesterday rose on sign of recovery but did not much movement to the pound.

Today is still a holiday for the French. Similar German Industrial Production report at 1800SGT is expected to be better, but may not move the pound much.

As much there may not be much news to expect a directional movement for the pound.

Looking at technical, from the daily chart, the pound move past below the CCI34, an indicator of a reversal from yesterday downward movement.

Both Fib and the EMA show similar trend of a reversal.

The Fib support is at 1.5425 similar to the EMA100.

As such, I am expecting a good support at 1.5425 today and a resistance at EMA200 at 1.55.

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

7 May 2013; GBPUSD

GPBUSD

It is going to be a slow week with a lack of news in Europe with the French and German hoildays.

Look out for Thursday UK rates announcement and US Unemployment claims.

Else based on technical and without the influence of news, I am expecting the pound to hover in the range 1.556 and 1.553 for today.

Overall technical calls for a sell. This is also supported by the expectation that UK will maintain rates.

Monday, May 06, 2013

6 May 2013; GBPUSD

GPBUSD

Last week saw a surge in the stocks market. Despite ECB lowering the rates by a quater point, the good news came both in the UK non farm employment data and the US job data.

Looking at the series of news this week - the expectation is for the German to do well.

On the technicals, based on Fib retracement, both pound has retrace from their low at 1.483 to hit the 61.8 level at 1.556. Taking another look at the CCI index, all indicators point to a movement down.

I put the support at 1.54, but of course a breakthrough in news can stir the pound to a new high of 1.576.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

18 July 2012

I have waiting for this day. It has been 7 months before the account doubles. Yes I know it may not be at the rate that some has advertised in the papers, like in 3 months or so.

Nevertheless, with a no open trades, I hope to double the account in 6 months, 5 if it is possible.

But to remind myself, I have to stick to the rules for money management:
1. Each trade entered is not more than 10% of the capital
2. The second trade can be made at the next 10% of capital, provide they are at least 150-200 pips apart in the same direction.
3. At most, the open trades made up of a total of 20% the capital.

I have more discipline in using the methods (Korachi and CCI34 with BB; 15minBB14).

Well the take is what to do with the sum: - now I hope to break even the losses in one of the sub-account, hopefully to do it within 2 months.

GBPUSD Analysis for 18 July
The market is expecting China to do something - like injecting simultus. the market is also expecting the Fed reserve to go for another round of QE.

The market still has its loom and gloom. Europe debts probem is not over, US and China market are weak.

The expectation brought some light to the stocks market which when green yesterday. But I am expecting the market to slow or make a reverse to take profits and soften.

The pound make a dip below 1.56 to 1.556. It rebounds back to 1.565.

The trend using CCI34 shows a market reversal soon to take place downward. The daily BB15 bound the pound at the top at 1.572.

At 1.572 (around 1.568), it happens to be the daily EMA100. It may face another resistance at EMA200 at 1.575. As such the upper bound for pound to climb today is confined at the range 1.568 and 1.575.

Support is at 1.562 between daily EMA55 and EMA21.


Wednesday, July 04, 2012

4 Jul 2012

The markets jump with the "good" news from the EU summit meeting. Evan as at yesterday, both the Europe and the US market are up.

However, EUR was kep within bound 1.2620 and 1.2570. It show occassion of breaking out in either direction but was contained. Now it is hovering at 1.2590 at Asian Time.

The pound was too confined, with sign of consolidation. The band is 1.5720 and 1.5660. The mean is 1.5680.

What will be the next big news that will swing the pound out of the band? Fed QE?

Looking at the technicals for today sign of movement, the is a potential for pound to gain a high at 1.5760/70 based on 1 day EMA 100 and EMA 200.

CCI is showing sign of going down should pound break 1.562, the next support is at 1.5580.

With only a major news at 1630 on UK service PMI and the US on holiday, I expect the pound to continue to hover at the 1.568 band at EMA55.

As such, a sell at EMA100 and a buy at EMA21 at 1.5715 and 1.5652 will be good with a profit target of 20-30 pips.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

26 June 2012

26 June 2012

The stocks tumble yesterday, as the world worries as Spain asked for a bank bail out. More fear is on who is next - France?

The Asia market will follow suite after the Europe and US market.

As such, the slump will contiune for GBP/USD. The dowtrend will not reverse so soon with probrable rebound.

Support is at 1.547 which is possible for GBP/USD to reach it today. On the contatary the resistance is at 1.562.

Friday, May 27, 2011

27 May 2011

GBP/USD Analysis

Britain’s pound appreciated to the highest in two weeks versus the dollar after a report showed the U.S. economy grew less than economists forecast.

In the US, Personal Consumption Expenditures Similar to Consumer Price Index measuring changes in prices of consumer supplies and services is expected to reduce by 0.1% to 0.5%, and to 1.8% on the Price Index. Meanwhile the Core Personal Consumption is expected to rise by 1% both here and on the Price Index.

Both news weaken the dollar and strengthen the pound in what is seen as a reversal from the bearish trend for the pound which lasted for 2 weeks.

The pound rebounded from support at 1.608 and spiked towards resistance at 1.636.

On technical analysis, support now lies at 1.636 and next at 1.630. Resistance now stands at 1.646.

With no UK news today and a likely weaker US spending, inflation and housing news, the pound may attempt the resistance line.

CCI continues to be out of the BB lines. There is no sign of reversal, ony signs of the pound being overbought.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

26 May 2011

GBP/USD Analysis:
A series of bad news has brought the Euro back to its 1.40 level. The pound follows, but find strong support as exhibited yesterday at 1.608.

There will not be many UK news except for 1 at 1400hrs on housing index. There will be more impactful US news tonight. The dollars has been trading higher.

Support for the pound is at 1.626 and next at 1.620. CCI has move up and break out of all the BB lines. It can indicate a potential spike up before a return to the support.

Resistance is at 1.635. A need to break past this value in order for the pound to achieve higher.

Monday, May 02, 2011

2 May 2011

GBP/USD
Bank holidays.
Don't expect much movement. Or movement to cause any major breakout.
The pound has already hit 1.67 victor the the first resistance. Support is at 1.66 then 1.65.

Without news the price will be ranged within the resistance and support.

Friday, April 29, 2011

29 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis
It is a wow yesterday, with how weak the dollars goes. Gold hit $1535, silver hit near $50.

Both Euro and pound made new high. The pound attempt 1.67, putting the support now at 1.66, and with a potential to zoom towards 1.7.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain near a six-month low when the final April numbers are released Friday as rising gas prices continue to weigh on consumers minds and push up inflation expectations

GBP held near a 17-month high versus the USD today, keeping gains as investors placed more bearish bets on the USD after the Fed signaled it was in no hurry to reverse policy. British consumer confidence data fell again, however, GBP/USD held support and is heading higher again.

Support is at 1.66, then 1.646. Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.686 (Fib projection)

CCI indicates a down, meaning a consolidation.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

27 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis
Look as if a support at 1.645 has prevent any breech down even with the better US economy sentiments on the US New homes sales and US consumer confidence.

Weighing strongly today is the news at 1630 on UK Prelim GDP. The expectation is 0.5% growth and that will push the pound higher, gaining confidence that the UK economy is recovering.

Support at the hour chart EMA200 lies at 1.645/46. With next at daily EMA21 at 1.638/40

Daily CCI 34 is flaten, with overbought occurred and now the CCI has cut the first BB line, an indication of a downward movement.

Pound made high and attempt 1.660. If the news break this high, pound will made towards resistance at 1.70!

Monday, April 25, 2011

24 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis

Banks on hoilday, so don't expect much movement today.

Last week, the pound cleared the resistance above 1.64 and strongly above and away from resistance at 1.646. In fact it attempt 1.66, before returning to 1.65.

Dollars has been weaken as seen by more quality easing from the Fed. Commodities ramp up because of the weal dollars with gold and silver reaching record high. Gold hit $1500!

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

20 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis
After the attempt at support at 1.618 and 1.623, the pound rebound and maintain price at 1.627 and now 1.632.

THe daily CCI is out of the BB lower line, an indication that the down trend has ended. But CCI remain high at above a positive figure of 53. It look as if the support is at 1.627/30 or the daily EMA21.

Today there is 2 major news. One at 1630hrs SGT on UK MPC voting and the other at 2200hrs SGT on US existing home sales.

A change in the MPC voting will trigger the intention to raise interest rates and may cause the pound to go high. Resistance is at 1.64, and if broken, it will be a whole new level with 1.64 as the support.

On the US, Sales of existing homes in the world’s largest economy is expected to increase at an annualized pace of 5.00M from 4.88M, and the rebound in purchases could spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as growth prospects improve. This move will pull the pound back from 1.64 to support at 1.632/30

A safe way to trade is to sell at resistance and buy at support after reversal at support.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

19 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis

The market was down, supported at 1.624, before the US news at 2200 and 2230hrs on NAHB Housing Market Index and FOMC rattled the movement up to 1.633, then turned down towards 1.616.

From the CCI, that finished the downside indication, as the CCI has punched out of the lower BB line. Pound hit below 1.623, a strong support for tha last week, attempt to break it, rebound and now this morning stands at 1.625/ 26.

Numerous Europe news in the afternoon. The issue of soverign debts has come back.

Support is at EMA21 at 1.62. EMA55 at 1.610. Resistance at 1.63. then 1.635. Bothe EMA can also be resistance. Expecting some swing between EMA21 and EMA55.

Monday, April 18, 2011

18 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis
No major news today. So it is all predictive and technicals.

The issues of Europe debts dotted the papers and Bloomberg again. Europe has raised its interest rate and has the intention to move them up. UK MOC has start voting to raise interest rate, but is 3 against 9.

Dollars has been strengthening since last week. Gold move up to above $1480.

Wihout news, today until Wednesday UK MPC voting, all the less than positive news build up, the technicals revealed that the pound is retreating.

CCI on the daily is down. Allow the pound to find support at 1.627 (EMA21 daily) which is may hit this morning and gain next towards 1.620.

Resistance is at 1.634/35.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

14 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis
The performance of the GBP/USD was confined within the range 1.631 and 1.6230. The occassion of news spike the pound up and down but trade within a range.

Only one major news, which is on US unemployment claims and PPI both at 2030hrs SGT. Both are expected to produce a better results for the economy recovery, but the fear of inflation is on. The dollars has been weak against the Eur and the pound in the recent tradings. Eur hit high at 1.45. These means that the GBP/USD pair will continue the range trading, a weak dollars but a stronger US economy.

Looking technically, CCI is in favour for a short. Strong support was witnessed at 1.623. Resistance was at 1.631/32. The hour chart clearly shows a squeeze with all the EMAs forming a resistance at 1.631/32.

From the daily chart, a breakout is possible and that will define new resistance at 1.64. Support if broken at 1.623 will bring the pound lower to 1.617

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

13 Apr 2011

GBP/USD Analysis
The news at 1630hrs SGT on UK CPI shift the pound down to support at 1.623. It rebound back to resistance at 1.63 and hit 1.633.

During the US trading session, the pound was squeeze between these 2 lines. It further squeeze between 1.624 and 1.628.

Today the action news come at 1630hrs SGT on UK Claimant Payout. The expectation is that there will be less payout meaning the economy is doing better. US retail sales is at 2030hrs SGT, expecting the retail to do better. As seen one pull and one push, the pound is expected to be ranged or whipsaw.

Golden Sachs dumped commodities yesterday. This cause oil and gold to fall from its high, suggesting a strengthening of the dollars.

Technically, CCI is down. Support at EMA21 at 1.623, then 1.617. Resistance is at 1.628. Breaking this will permit the pound to go towards 1.63/ 1.633. Breaking 1.633 will be a good zoom towards 1.64.

There is a whipsaw news expecation, plus a lot of support and resistances, thus either play with small profits or wait for breakout at 1.620 and 1.635