GBP/USD Analysis:
After last week of bull run, with equity market having the extra dollars to boost run, GBP and Eur both made new highs.
This week, I am expecting some consolidation.
Pound has start running up from 1.535 to 1.620. The retracement is expected at support 1.586, then 1.576.
Alternatively, Pound may attempt 1.60.
With the lack of news, I am expecting the price range between 1.6 and 1.586.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
6 Oct 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
As gold made new high, stock climb, Euro and GBP made new high, when will the USD retreat?
BOJ cut rate and that trigger all new hopes of easing pressure, causing most currencies to appreciate against the yen. So it is now waiting for Fed action, before USD take another low or reverese its direction.
Day chart show a potential break up towards 1.60 if resistance at 1.594 is broken. An attempt of 1.594 to 1.600 look possible today.
However if USD were to take a breather, a possible retrace is to 1.589, then to 1.587, with support at 1.583.
As gold made new high, stock climb, Euro and GBP made new high, when will the USD retreat?
BOJ cut rate and that trigger all new hopes of easing pressure, causing most currencies to appreciate against the yen. So it is now waiting for Fed action, before USD take another low or reverese its direction.
Day chart show a potential break up towards 1.60 if resistance at 1.594 is broken. An attempt of 1.594 to 1.600 look possible today.
However if USD were to take a breather, a possible retrace is to 1.589, then to 1.587, with support at 1.583.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
5 Oct 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The first news in the morning was BOJ trying to reduce pressure on appreciating yen. Dow retreated before earnings report, probably soften by speech from Wen Jiabao. Woes from europe return.
These fundamental reports only add to confrim the bearish movement of the GBP. Though it shot high because of better than expected PMI report yesterday, together with the Euro, GBP has retreated this morning.
GBP is still ranged between 1.574 and 1.59. As such trade within range.
The first news in the morning was BOJ trying to reduce pressure on appreciating yen. Dow retreated before earnings report, probably soften by speech from Wen Jiabao. Woes from europe return.
These fundamental reports only add to confrim the bearish movement of the GBP. Though it shot high because of better than expected PMI report yesterday, together with the Euro, GBP has retreated this morning.
GBP is still ranged between 1.574 and 1.59. As such trade within range.
Monday, October 04, 2010
4 Oct 2010
GBP/USD analysis:
Not much of news.
Will the Europe terrorist treat has any impact on the market. Asia market continue to make runs with better China economic data.
The pound now began its squeezed between trading range of 1.59 and 1.74. After it failed to break 1.59 and break below 1.74, these two lines become the natural resistance and support lines.
Euro made a dip this morning. My expectation is for the pound to go low and continued towards the support line. CCI support this decisions.
Not much of news.
Will the Europe terrorist treat has any impact on the market. Asia market continue to make runs with better China economic data.
The pound now began its squeezed between trading range of 1.59 and 1.74. After it failed to break 1.59 and break below 1.74, these two lines become the natural resistance and support lines.
Euro made a dip this morning. My expectation is for the pound to go low and continued towards the support line. CCI support this decisions.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
29 Sep 2010
GBPUSD Analysis:
As at this morning, a big squeeze appears on the 15min chart.
Both directions are possible for a break out. Looking at the 1 hour chart, a break up is at 1.582/3 target to reach short term resistance at 1.585, then 1.5900.
The other is for GBP to break downwards at 1.578, towards 1.575/74 region. Short term support at 1.567/68 region.
The issue of debt seems to be coming back, together with "economy going for a second recession".
As at this morning, a big squeeze appears on the 15min chart.
Both directions are possible for a break out. Looking at the 1 hour chart, a break up is at 1.582/3 target to reach short term resistance at 1.585, then 1.5900.
The other is for GBP to break downwards at 1.578, towards 1.575/74 region. Short term support at 1.567/68 region.
The issue of debt seems to be coming back, together with "economy going for a second recession".
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
28 Sep 2010
GBPUSD analysis:
A number of news this week.
GBP has made new high and now consolidate around 1.580/84.
Upside potential is towards 1.600, while a downside consoldidate around 1.574 and 1.567 region.
On a daily technical chart, CCI has cut the upper BB, meaning that a down is there.
As for me waiting for a sell entry around 1.583/4
A number of news this week.
GBP has made new high and now consolidate around 1.580/84.
Upside potential is towards 1.600, while a downside consoldidate around 1.574 and 1.567 region.
On a daily technical chart, CCI has cut the upper BB, meaning that a down is there.
As for me waiting for a sell entry around 1.583/4
Monday, September 27, 2010
27 Sep 2010
GBP/USD analysis:
Now that GBP had hit new high, attempted its fib retracement at 1.59. It may consolidate towards 1.60.
Of course, on the hind side, it may return to 1.572 as the support.
Likewise, Eur has made new high.
My expectation is for the market to consolidate lower, before attempt to hit 1.60.
Now that GBP had hit new high, attempted its fib retracement at 1.59. It may consolidate towards 1.60.
Of course, on the hind side, it may return to 1.572 as the support.
Likewise, Eur has made new high.
My expectation is for the market to consolidate lower, before attempt to hit 1.60.
Friday, September 24, 2010
24 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
At one point, GBP hit a 1.5742, meaning the first attempt to breech the 1.574 resistance line. It also means next a consolidation ebfore the pound jump next to clear 1.574 to 1.59/1.6 level.
In today expectation, after a weak European job data, the market has resettled this morning at EMA21 level at 1.568/67 level, down from the peak 1.574.
The Eur has also peak and consolidate.
Support for the pound is at 1 hour retracement level at 1.5662/60 level. The long term up trend potential is there for the pound to jump back to 1.570 level.
At one point, GBP hit a 1.5742, meaning the first attempt to breech the 1.574 resistance line. It also means next a consolidation ebfore the pound jump next to clear 1.574 to 1.59/1.6 level.
In today expectation, after a weak European job data, the market has resettled this morning at EMA21 level at 1.568/67 level, down from the peak 1.574.
The Eur has also peak and consolidate.
Support for the pound is at 1 hour retracement level at 1.5662/60 level. The long term up trend potential is there for the pound to jump back to 1.570 level.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
22 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
Eur shot up this morning making a new high. Dow has started to consolidate after the last few days of up.
The pound follow the Eur to give a jump up this morning. It hit the fib retracement line (day chart) at 1.564. Resistance at 1.574, which means that GBP will test it again. On the hind side, GBP may fall back to the support at 1.556/54.
With the profit-taking in mind, plus the weak support of the US Data, I expectation is for the GBP to consolidate lower first before moving higher.
Eur shot up this morning making a new high. Dow has started to consolidate after the last few days of up.
The pound follow the Eur to give a jump up this morning. It hit the fib retracement line (day chart) at 1.564. Resistance at 1.574, which means that GBP will test it again. On the hind side, GBP may fall back to the support at 1.556/54.
With the profit-taking in mind, plus the weak support of the US Data, I expectation is for the GBP to consolidate lower first before moving higher.
Friday, September 17, 2010
17 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
Pound hit resistance at Fib retracement line at 1.564/65. If it break this line , the next level it will go is 1.573.
However, it look like some consolidation, forming a double peak at 1.564, meaning that it may retrace to 1.556/57.
Eur went high yesterday at 1.312 and therefore I expect some consolidation before any movement up. Likewise conclusion for the pound.
Equtities market has been on the run up and therefore likewise need some profit taking.
Pound hit resistance at Fib retracement line at 1.564/65. If it break this line , the next level it will go is 1.573.
However, it look like some consolidation, forming a double peak at 1.564, meaning that it may retrace to 1.556/57.
Eur went high yesterday at 1.312 and therefore I expect some consolidation before any movement up. Likewise conclusion for the pound.
Equtities market has been on the run up and therefore likewise need some profit taking.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
16 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound did a break out of 1.550!
It attempted 1.560 and now at price above 1.562. Support nows render at 1.554/1.555.
Using Fib retracement, the first resistance has now becomes the support at 1.555, the next resistance is at 1.565, then 1.573.
The pound hit 1.565 yesterday and if it continues to break 1.565, 1.673 is the next target.
Market has been on a good sentiments run, with US Dow making good run. EUR has also been a high, hitting 1.30.
The pound did a break out of 1.550!
It attempted 1.560 and now at price above 1.562. Support nows render at 1.554/1.555.
Using Fib retracement, the first resistance has now becomes the support at 1.555, the next resistance is at 1.565, then 1.573.
The pound hit 1.565 yesterday and if it continues to break 1.565, 1.673 is the next target.
Market has been on a good sentiments run, with US Dow making good run. EUR has also been a high, hitting 1.30.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
14 sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The squeeze has not ended. Price still range within 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Again it look like a buying spree for the equities market.
Wait.
The squeeze has not ended. Price still range within 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Again it look like a buying spree for the equities market.
Wait.
Monday, September 13, 2010
13 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
A good morning up movement.
Still trading in price range of 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Waiting for the break in either direction, which target at 1.566 or 1.520.
Bad sentiments from Europe seems to be gone and the market is again picking up. USD is weak on trading and it gives the GBP a possible run up.
A good morning up movement.
Still trading in price range of 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Waiting for the break in either direction, which target at 1.566 or 1.520.
Bad sentiments from Europe seems to be gone and the market is again picking up. USD is weak on trading and it gives the GBP a possible run up.
Friday, September 10, 2010
10 Sep 2010
GBPUSD Analysis:
It seemed that concerns over Europe debts was gone.
The market move up, DOw and the rest was up.
It a big move yesterday, the pound swing from a high of 1.548 to 1.538, then back to 1.548, now it has move down near 1.540. GBPUSD has been undecisive.
From the daily chart, price continue to squeeze.. It has not break out of 1.55 and 1.53 range.
Do a wait an see, today is Friday. Wait for a break out.
But if you were to trade, trade cautiously and buy at near 1.538 and sell at near 1.548. Be patient.
It seemed that concerns over Europe debts was gone.
The market move up, DOw and the rest was up.
It a big move yesterday, the pound swing from a high of 1.548 to 1.538, then back to 1.548, now it has move down near 1.540. GBPUSD has been undecisive.
From the daily chart, price continue to squeeze.. It has not break out of 1.55 and 1.53 range.
Do a wait an see, today is Friday. Wait for a break out.
But if you were to trade, trade cautiously and buy at near 1.538 and sell at near 1.548. Be patient.
Thursday, September 09, 2010
9 Sep 2010
GBP/USD analysis:
The equities market still pose a positive direction. Dow went up again, support above 10000.
It look like some bad news are coming out to dampen the EUR. But EUR still look good and well supported at 1.26/7.
Pound attempted a break out up yesterday, but retreat at 1.552. It is still struggling at price range of 1.550 and 1.530.
A break at 1.554 will trigger the pound to hit 1.57, while a break below 1.53 will see the pound go to 1.51.
For today, catch small profits within the range 1.538 and 1.548.
The equities market still pose a positive direction. Dow went up again, support above 10000.
It look like some bad news are coming out to dampen the EUR. But EUR still look good and well supported at 1.26/7.
Pound attempted a break out up yesterday, but retreat at 1.552. It is still struggling at price range of 1.550 and 1.530.
A break at 1.554 will trigger the pound to hit 1.57, while a break below 1.53 will see the pound go to 1.51.
For today, catch small profits within the range 1.538 and 1.548.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
8 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The global economy has been on a roller coaster. Dow has been up above 10000, well supported, but last night make a dip of -100 points.
Likewise, the USD has been following the strength of the US economy and sentiments.
There has been a price squeeze on the pound. It is now touching the support on the daily EMA200 and EMA100 at 1.530. Will it go up or down?
If it break down below 1.530/1.529, the trend set will be a down and we will see pound heading lower towards 1.52 then 1.504.
Of course, if support is strong, pound will rebound and expect resistance at 1.545/1.548.
Pound has been following the EUR?USD, which is also supported at 1.267/63.
The global economy has been on a roller coaster. Dow has been up above 10000, well supported, but last night make a dip of -100 points.
Likewise, the USD has been following the strength of the US economy and sentiments.
There has been a price squeeze on the pound. It is now touching the support on the daily EMA200 and EMA100 at 1.530. Will it go up or down?
If it break down below 1.530/1.529, the trend set will be a down and we will see pound heading lower towards 1.52 then 1.504.
Of course, if support is strong, pound will rebound and expect resistance at 1.545/1.548.
Pound has been following the EUR?USD, which is also supported at 1.267/63.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
11 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The British economy is still growing despite a surge of disappointing economic data. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that GDP grew by 0.3 per cent between December and February, compared with the preceding three-month period.
If the economy maintains momentum this month, economic growth for the first quarter of the year would match GDP in the final quarter of 2009.
But NIESR said that although the recession was over, the country would not rebuild total economic output to the levels seen before the slowdown for another two years, leaving the country in "a period of depression" until then.
Containerized trade volumes in and out of the U.S. softened alongside seasonal demand at several major ports in January, but compared to a year ago, broader trends of rebounding exports and stabilizing imports are surfacing, according to port officials.
Overall, it means a shift to the dollars for safety as UK struggles on both ends.
The 1 hour chart shows the WMA5 in between EMA21 and EMA55. A sign of unsure direction contained between 1.4985 and 1.4964. A break in this resistance and support will bring the price to the next level at 1.501 and 1.488.
My expectation: Both Eur and GBP is unsure. Daily chart show formation of doji. Trade and take small profit and ready to let go if direction is against you.
The British economy is still growing despite a surge of disappointing economic data. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that GDP grew by 0.3 per cent between December and February, compared with the preceding three-month period.
If the economy maintains momentum this month, economic growth for the first quarter of the year would match GDP in the final quarter of 2009.
But NIESR said that although the recession was over, the country would not rebuild total economic output to the levels seen before the slowdown for another two years, leaving the country in "a period of depression" until then.
Containerized trade volumes in and out of the U.S. softened alongside seasonal demand at several major ports in January, but compared to a year ago, broader trends of rebounding exports and stabilizing imports are surfacing, according to port officials.
Overall, it means a shift to the dollars for safety as UK struggles on both ends.
The 1 hour chart shows the WMA5 in between EMA21 and EMA55. A sign of unsure direction contained between 1.4985 and 1.4964. A break in this resistance and support will bring the price to the next level at 1.501 and 1.488.
My expectation: Both Eur and GBP is unsure. Daily chart show formation of doji. Trade and take small profit and ready to let go if direction is against you.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
10 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The Euro was down early as traders took a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven recovery in the economy as one of the reasons for the weakness. They are worried that the European Central Bank faces too many upcoming challenges regarding growth and inflation to trigger a reasonable appreciation in the Euro.
We have news today 1730hrs UK Manufacturing Production. Production surprised with a nice rise of 0.9% last month, and is now predicted to get back to slower growth – 0.3%. Note that the Industrial Production figure contains manufacturing (80%) and other sectors, but the manufacturing number is eyed.
A better than expected results may give the pound a boost towards 1.503. The pound has attempt to break EMA21 on the 1 hour chart, but failed. It may attempt today.
If failed, the pound may revert back to support level at 1.49 then 1.48.
My expectation: The pound will be traded in range between 1.48 and 1.50, generally it still show sign of bearish.
The Euro was down early as traders took a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven recovery in the economy as one of the reasons for the weakness. They are worried that the European Central Bank faces too many upcoming challenges regarding growth and inflation to trigger a reasonable appreciation in the Euro.
We have news today 1730hrs UK Manufacturing Production. Production surprised with a nice rise of 0.9% last month, and is now predicted to get back to slower growth – 0.3%. Note that the Industrial Production figure contains manufacturing (80%) and other sectors, but the manufacturing number is eyed.
A better than expected results may give the pound a boost towards 1.503. The pound has attempt to break EMA21 on the 1 hour chart, but failed. It may attempt today.
If failed, the pound may revert back to support level at 1.49 then 1.48.
My expectation: The pound will be traded in range between 1.48 and 1.50, generally it still show sign of bearish.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
9 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
A strong dollar rally came into the mid-session of US trading as traders backed away from higher risk assets. Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the catalyst behind the weakness in the Euro. Merkel said that a Greek bailout is not on the table and pointed toward the no bailout rule in the European Union agreement as the reason behind her comment.
Another reason for the mid-session weakness in the Euro may have been comments from Greek Prime Minister Papadreou who hinted that he’d be willing to turn toward the International Monetary Fund for help if the EU didn’t come through with financial aid. His comments were most likely designed to light a fire under the EU to take action sooner.
The pound was heading towards 1.52, before the rally, dropping the pound by almost a 160 pips.
The British Pound continues to remain the weakest currency because of the poor U.K. economy, the widening budget deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
From the technicals, dispersion in the upwards direction has disappear and now from the 1 hour chart, both WMA5 and EMA21 has gone below EMA100 and EMA55. Even EMA55 is appearing weak and clearing EMA100.
Support is at 1.50/1.49 region. Moving further will be breaking 1.478, going to 1.45 region.
Resistance is at 1.508, ten 1.513.
My expectation: Its a empty news day. The pound may range within 1.500 and 1.508. The only news is at 1730hrs, UK Trade balance. The British deficit rose to 7.3 billion last month, and it’s now expected to drop back to to 6.9. A deficit in trade balance is normal for Britain.
A strong dollar rally came into the mid-session of US trading as traders backed away from higher risk assets. Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the catalyst behind the weakness in the Euro. Merkel said that a Greek bailout is not on the table and pointed toward the no bailout rule in the European Union agreement as the reason behind her comment.
Another reason for the mid-session weakness in the Euro may have been comments from Greek Prime Minister Papadreou who hinted that he’d be willing to turn toward the International Monetary Fund for help if the EU didn’t come through with financial aid. His comments were most likely designed to light a fire under the EU to take action sooner.
The pound was heading towards 1.52, before the rally, dropping the pound by almost a 160 pips.
The British Pound continues to remain the weakest currency because of the poor U.K. economy, the widening budget deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
From the technicals, dispersion in the upwards direction has disappear and now from the 1 hour chart, both WMA5 and EMA21 has gone below EMA100 and EMA55. Even EMA55 is appearing weak and clearing EMA100.
Support is at 1.50/1.49 region. Moving further will be breaking 1.478, going to 1.45 region.
Resistance is at 1.508, ten 1.513.
My expectation: Its a empty news day. The pound may range within 1.500 and 1.508. The only news is at 1730hrs, UK Trade balance. The British deficit rose to 7.3 billion last month, and it’s now expected to drop back to to 6.9. A deficit in trade balance is normal for Britain.
Monday, March 08, 2010
8 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The week end with a surprise recover of the pound back and above 1.515.
Today will be a quiet day with no major European news. SO its all technical.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, showed the pound on a break up above EMA200. However, the daily chart showed a resistance at EMA21 at 1.524.
Euro has too recover from its low of 1.34 to 1.37. The pound will mostly likely make a high towards resistance.
On the down side, support is at 1.514/12 region, before any break down towards 1.507
The week end with a surprise recover of the pound back and above 1.515.
Today will be a quiet day with no major European news. SO its all technical.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, showed the pound on a break up above EMA200. However, the daily chart showed a resistance at EMA21 at 1.524.
Euro has too recover from its low of 1.34 to 1.37. The pound will mostly likely make a high towards resistance.
On the down side, support is at 1.514/12 region, before any break down towards 1.507
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