GBP/USD Analysis:
The dollar continued to show its weakness. Traders are starting to look at the fundamentals which drive currency markets, namely the interest rate differential. If the ECB is getting ready to exit its stimulus programs then this is a sign that interest rates will remain at 1% and possibly move higher by early next year. This would make the Euro a more attractive investment than the Dollar because the Fed is not set to raise interest rates until at least mid-2010.
U.S. existing home sales report came out better than expected. This stopped the decline in the Dollar as it indicated the economy may be stronger than previously thought. Dow also climbed 1% adding more than 133 points.
The pound as a result halt its climb yesterday at around 1.665 and retrace back below 1.60. Naturally, it create again a resistance at 1.666/68 region.
This afternoon we have 3 news from the UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals, Prelim Business Investment and Inflation Report Hearings all reported at 1730hrs SGT. The former 2 is expected to be better than expected or at least better than the previous report. Mervyn King and his associates go to parliament and talk about the inflation situation, and about the economy in general. In his last appearance in parliament, King sent the Pound way down.
Counter acting at the US news, which are at 2300hrs SGT on Consumer Confidence and HPI.
As such, tecnically the pound is expected to be range bound. Technically within 1.648and 1.662.
Trade Plan Suggestion: Trade bounds between 1.648 region for long and short at 1.662 region.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
18 Nov 2009
GBPUSD Analysis:
The dollar gained on yesterday as investors trimmed short positions after euro zone economic policymakers followed U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke in commenting about the merits of a strong dollar.
But dealers said the greenback's rebound will likely limited and that the trend of a long-term dollar decline has not changed.
The GBP USD closed lower after making a valid attempt to turn higher for the day. The uptrend has been strong in this currency lately as the bulls seem to have control over the market despite attempts by Bank of England Governor King recently to talk this currency lower. It looks as if traders are beginning to believe that the economy has bottomed and that the BoE is getting ready to reduce quantitative easing.
Watch out for MPC annoucement at 1630hrs SGT.
Right now the pound look to trade within 1.683 and 1.676, giving raise to a potential breakout. Shoudl it break 1.683, the next resistance is at 1.698/1.704 region. If it break 1.676, support is at 1.668, then 1.664.
Trade Plan suggestion: A long is still favoured. But where will be the entry point? There are 3 points, one at breakout at 1.684, second is at support at 1.676 and the third is at support at 1.668. Play according to your level of comfort, and take profit at the next resistance/ support level.
The dollar gained on yesterday as investors trimmed short positions after euro zone economic policymakers followed U.S. Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke in commenting about the merits of a strong dollar.
But dealers said the greenback's rebound will likely limited and that the trend of a long-term dollar decline has not changed.
The GBP USD closed lower after making a valid attempt to turn higher for the day. The uptrend has been strong in this currency lately as the bulls seem to have control over the market despite attempts by Bank of England Governor King recently to talk this currency lower. It looks as if traders are beginning to believe that the economy has bottomed and that the BoE is getting ready to reduce quantitative easing.
Watch out for MPC annoucement at 1630hrs SGT.
Right now the pound look to trade within 1.683 and 1.676, giving raise to a potential breakout. Shoudl it break 1.683, the next resistance is at 1.698/1.704 region. If it break 1.676, support is at 1.668, then 1.664.
Trade Plan suggestion: A long is still favoured. But where will be the entry point? There are 3 points, one at breakout at 1.684, second is at support at 1.676 and the third is at support at 1.668. Play according to your level of comfort, and take profit at the next resistance/ support level.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
17 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
After it refuse to head below 1.668, the pound managed to gain new highs at 1.688. With Fed not willing to raise rates and MPC man Andrew said that UK recession is over, there are more reasons for the pound to head stronger.
In fact, while waiting for the CCI to hit below 0, it did a reversal and now it is heading in the up direction.
Support lies at 1.668 region, which used to be a strong resistance.
Resistance has shifted to 1.698 and 1.704 region.
There is UK Inflation letter at around 1800hrs SGT. This event will complete the inflation releases. It will only be published if the inflation target is missed – CPI falls below 1% in this case. If this happens, Mervyn King will publish a public letter to explain the reasons for this, and especially the things he’ll do to tackle it. This could mean more Pound printing.
Also look out during US trading time on core PPI to be released at 2130hrs SGT.
Trading plan suggestion: Place long trade at around support level and take profit around resistance level.
After it refuse to head below 1.668, the pound managed to gain new highs at 1.688. With Fed not willing to raise rates and MPC man Andrew said that UK recession is over, there are more reasons for the pound to head stronger.
In fact, while waiting for the CCI to hit below 0, it did a reversal and now it is heading in the up direction.
Support lies at 1.668 region, which used to be a strong resistance.
Resistance has shifted to 1.698 and 1.704 region.
There is UK Inflation letter at around 1800hrs SGT. This event will complete the inflation releases. It will only be published if the inflation target is missed – CPI falls below 1% in this case. If this happens, Mervyn King will publish a public letter to explain the reasons for this, and especially the things he’ll do to tackle it. This could mean more Pound printing.
Also look out during US trading time on core PPI to be released at 2130hrs SGT.
Trading plan suggestion: Place long trade at around support level and take profit around resistance level.
Friday, November 13, 2009
13 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The U.S. market was dragged lower by the sell-off seen in the commodity market on Thursday, continuing the theme started in the European session, which saw strong declines posted by crude oil and metals.
The likelihood of a short covering rally increased today from a technical perspective with the beaten down Greenback jumping 50 pips, after again finding support at the approx 75.00 level.
Euro has also lost ground, after failing 3 times to clear 1.505/06 region.
It is probably time for the dollars to regain some lost ground. Traders which has been gaining through the equlity market, the commodity market and even the currency market because of a weak dollars, will now take advantage to push the dollars strength and gain from it.
A number of news for the Euro this afternoon, followed by US Trade Balance at 2130hrs SGT. Global trade has staged a remarkable recovery from the depths of last year's panic, and that may push a demand for the dollars which is still the main trading currency.
The first line of support for the pound is at 1.6504, then 1.6396, then 1.6262.
CCI is on the down and it is expected to continue the downside movement to at least reach a near 0 or -ve CCI.
Resistance is at 1.6705, then 1.684.
Trading Plan suggestion: It is a time to do short trades and take profits at the support line. Watch how the Euro goes, which is supprted at 1.4718. Take loss if Euro rebound, because the pound will follow. Take loss at around 1.670.
The U.S. market was dragged lower by the sell-off seen in the commodity market on Thursday, continuing the theme started in the European session, which saw strong declines posted by crude oil and metals.
The likelihood of a short covering rally increased today from a technical perspective with the beaten down Greenback jumping 50 pips, after again finding support at the approx 75.00 level.
Euro has also lost ground, after failing 3 times to clear 1.505/06 region.
It is probably time for the dollars to regain some lost ground. Traders which has been gaining through the equlity market, the commodity market and even the currency market because of a weak dollars, will now take advantage to push the dollars strength and gain from it.
A number of news for the Euro this afternoon, followed by US Trade Balance at 2130hrs SGT. Global trade has staged a remarkable recovery from the depths of last year's panic, and that may push a demand for the dollars which is still the main trading currency.
The first line of support for the pound is at 1.6504, then 1.6396, then 1.6262.
CCI is on the down and it is expected to continue the downside movement to at least reach a near 0 or -ve CCI.
Resistance is at 1.6705, then 1.684.
Trading Plan suggestion: It is a time to do short trades and take profits at the support line. Watch how the Euro goes, which is supprted at 1.4718. Take loss if Euro rebound, because the pound will follow. Take loss at around 1.670.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
11 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
At 1300hrs SGT yesterday, a report from bloomberg by Fitch ratings which downgrade the pound, brought the upward movement to a halt. The pound came down from 1.68 to 1.66. It is now at 1.67.
But following the Fitch ratings, a series of comments on the pound about the economy "L" shape recovery, about the Inflation Report that showed inflation picking up sharply in the near term but returning to target in 2 years if rates follow market expectations.
Today we have more news on UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate at 1730hrs SGT. Claimant Count Change is expected to stay stable, and move to 20.2K. The Pound will shake in any case. In the past two months, the unemployment rate “refused” to rise to 8%, beating economists’ expectations and standing on 7.9%. Predictions are for a rise to 8%.
Technically, the pound has not break out of the 1.68/ 1.69 region. But support is at 1.666, suggesting that a strong one will sustain and move the pound within the trade range of 1.66 and 1.68.
Trade Plan suggestion: As CCI is out of the BB and hitting near 150 and now has reversed, to be conservative for long position is best taken at support line. If after the news a breakout does occur at 1.68, take long and take small profits in the 1.69 and 1.70 region.
At 1300hrs SGT yesterday, a report from bloomberg by Fitch ratings which downgrade the pound, brought the upward movement to a halt. The pound came down from 1.68 to 1.66. It is now at 1.67.
But following the Fitch ratings, a series of comments on the pound about the economy "L" shape recovery, about the Inflation Report that showed inflation picking up sharply in the near term but returning to target in 2 years if rates follow market expectations.
Today we have more news on UK Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate at 1730hrs SGT. Claimant Count Change is expected to stay stable, and move to 20.2K. The Pound will shake in any case. In the past two months, the unemployment rate “refused” to rise to 8%, beating economists’ expectations and standing on 7.9%. Predictions are for a rise to 8%.
Technically, the pound has not break out of the 1.68/ 1.69 region. But support is at 1.666, suggesting that a strong one will sustain and move the pound within the trade range of 1.66 and 1.68.
Trade Plan suggestion: As CCI is out of the BB and hitting near 150 and now has reversed, to be conservative for long position is best taken at support line. If after the news a breakout does occur at 1.68, take long and take small profits in the 1.69 and 1.70 region.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
10 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
A very nice combination in development. First the equity market, with the Dow breaking and staying above 10200 points gaining more than 2% last night. Second the Euro hit 1.5 again. Third, crude near $80 a barrel and gold hit new high of above $1100.
Is the dollar a gonna? The global economy has definately recover, but the demand for dollars is not there. Is there an unstated underlying that people are replacing the dollars with other currencies? It look like investors are gorging on anything other than the U.S. dollar as a new feast of fourth quarter risk appetite gets underway.
U.K. retailers posted their strongest October sales growth since 2002, House prices in England and Wales rose last month at their strongest rate in almost three years, buoyed by tight supply and record low interest rates. Good news to strengthen the pound.
A lot more Euro news this afternoon. This will see the Euro break and rebound off 1.500 for this week. Also British trade balance is traditionally negative – meaning there’s a deficit. This deficit has slightly squeezed in recent months, edging down to 6.2 billion pounds. It’s predicted to edge down some more, to 6.1 billion. A smaller deficit will help the Pound. Published at 1730 SGT.
On technical analysis, the pound found new support at 1.668. It did its first retracement to this support and tested it last night coming down from yesterday high of 1.684. It may test this support again and with the CCI edging and nearing +150, the pound may be trading within 1.69 and 1.668 today.
Breaking 1.69, together with the Euro clearing 1.500, will give the pound a boost towards 1.7, confirming the contiuation in U.S dollars selling.
Trade plan suggestion: As the CCI has punch out of the BB, its not quite safe to jump into the long. Of course the sentiments look right for a long position. Wait for retracement to EMA55 or EMA100 and take small profit.
A very nice combination in development. First the equity market, with the Dow breaking and staying above 10200 points gaining more than 2% last night. Second the Euro hit 1.5 again. Third, crude near $80 a barrel and gold hit new high of above $1100.
Is the dollar a gonna? The global economy has definately recover, but the demand for dollars is not there. Is there an unstated underlying that people are replacing the dollars with other currencies? It look like investors are gorging on anything other than the U.S. dollar as a new feast of fourth quarter risk appetite gets underway.
U.K. retailers posted their strongest October sales growth since 2002, House prices in England and Wales rose last month at their strongest rate in almost three years, buoyed by tight supply and record low interest rates. Good news to strengthen the pound.
A lot more Euro news this afternoon. This will see the Euro break and rebound off 1.500 for this week. Also British trade balance is traditionally negative – meaning there’s a deficit. This deficit has slightly squeezed in recent months, edging down to 6.2 billion pounds. It’s predicted to edge down some more, to 6.1 billion. A smaller deficit will help the Pound. Published at 1730 SGT.
On technical analysis, the pound found new support at 1.668. It did its first retracement to this support and tested it last night coming down from yesterday high of 1.684. It may test this support again and with the CCI edging and nearing +150, the pound may be trading within 1.69 and 1.668 today.
Breaking 1.69, together with the Euro clearing 1.500, will give the pound a boost towards 1.7, confirming the contiuation in U.S dollars selling.
Trade plan suggestion: As the CCI has punch out of the BB, its not quite safe to jump into the long. Of course the sentiments look right for a long position. Wait for retracement to EMA55 or EMA100 and take small profit.
Friday, November 06, 2009
6 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
There was alot of expectation coming from FOMC and MPC. In summary, FOMC said that intesrest rated will remain and that the economy is picking up. MPC reduced the expected quality easing program by 25billion pound and that sent the pound high hitting as much as 1.663.
US employment has reported a lower claim, indicating that indeed the economy is on its feet.
It will be a watch now for the pound in its abilities to clear 1.666 resistance. Today we have UK at 1730hrs SGT PPI Input. Evening we have major reports from the US on Non-Farm Employment Change at 2130hrs SGT.
The technicals does not appear to convice any direction. Despite CCI pointing up, but BB showed a squeeze. Moreover, the last round of down did not enter into negative CCI, showing a weak up.
Resistance is at 1.666, and then it may show some blue sky towards 1.698. Support is at 1.640 then 1.628
Trade Plan for the day: CCI is up, but wait for breakout at 1.666 then long andtake profit at 1.67/ 75 region if you are playing intra day. If price retrace, pick up and long around 1.64 to 1.645 region
There was alot of expectation coming from FOMC and MPC. In summary, FOMC said that intesrest rated will remain and that the economy is picking up. MPC reduced the expected quality easing program by 25billion pound and that sent the pound high hitting as much as 1.663.
US employment has reported a lower claim, indicating that indeed the economy is on its feet.
It will be a watch now for the pound in its abilities to clear 1.666 resistance. Today we have UK at 1730hrs SGT PPI Input. Evening we have major reports from the US on Non-Farm Employment Change at 2130hrs SGT.
The technicals does not appear to convice any direction. Despite CCI pointing up, but BB showed a squeeze. Moreover, the last round of down did not enter into negative CCI, showing a weak up.
Resistance is at 1.666, and then it may show some blue sky towards 1.698. Support is at 1.640 then 1.628
Trade Plan for the day: CCI is up, but wait for breakout at 1.666 then long andtake profit at 1.67/ 75 region if you are playing intra day. If price retrace, pick up and long around 1.64 to 1.645 region
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
4 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound hit its 1.6275 support line and rebound back to 1.646, 20 pips below 1.648 which is yesterday high. This form a hammer.
As expected UK Construction PMI posted at 46.2 was worse than expected. The rebound was caused by a 2100hrs SGT news on UK Halifax HPI (which was not schedule during yesterday morning annlysis).
Today at 0800hrs SGT UK will have its confidence report, which will set the direction for the pound till 1730hrs SGT before the UK Services PMI.
The pound is generally weak because of the amount of debt over GDP, which is more than 10%, more than the US. Therefore as part of analysis, all eye FOMC this Thursday at 0315hrs SGT and MPC meeting this Thursday. Its about monetary policy.
Now that the US has its feet out of the recession, will Fed unplug the trillion of dollars plan and raise interest rates? If that is so, the dollars will strengthen and then what will the UK government do to the pound?
Today I am expecting a trading range of between 1.65 and 1.6220. Resistance at 1.660 and support at 1.6220.
Trading plan suggestion: To be conservative because of any major breakout that could happen on Thursday, trade at resistance and support line. Remember to little gains and let go when it break out of resistance and support lines.
The pound hit its 1.6275 support line and rebound back to 1.646, 20 pips below 1.648 which is yesterday high. This form a hammer.
As expected UK Construction PMI posted at 46.2 was worse than expected. The rebound was caused by a 2100hrs SGT news on UK Halifax HPI (which was not schedule during yesterday morning annlysis).
Today at 0800hrs SGT UK will have its confidence report, which will set the direction for the pound till 1730hrs SGT before the UK Services PMI.
The pound is generally weak because of the amount of debt over GDP, which is more than 10%, more than the US. Therefore as part of analysis, all eye FOMC this Thursday at 0315hrs SGT and MPC meeting this Thursday. Its about monetary policy.
Now that the US has its feet out of the recession, will Fed unplug the trillion of dollars plan and raise interest rates? If that is so, the dollars will strengthen and then what will the UK government do to the pound?
Today I am expecting a trading range of between 1.65 and 1.6220. Resistance at 1.660 and support at 1.6220.
Trading plan suggestion: To be conservative because of any major breakout that could happen on Thursday, trade at resistance and support line. Remember to little gains and let go when it break out of resistance and support lines.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
3 Nov 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound hit hihg last Friday again at 1.6604, which I see it as a failed attempt to clear resistance at 1.666. This form a double top on the daily chart, bring a full potential for the pound to fall back to 1.6275 region.
Added bads news about the UK banks and BoE needs to approve emergency loans to financial institutions. To some extent, it seems that the U.K. financial system may have been hit by the credit crisis in a far harder and deeper fashion than other regions.
Today at 1730hrs SGT, UK will be reporting on Construction PMI. There should report better than expected and may keep the pound above 1.6275. Contrary to house prices, this housing sector indicator is still negative. This time, it’s expected to go back up to 47.2, but still in the negative zone.
Looking at the CCI, the pound is moving down. CCI is still positive, menaing that the downside potential is there. Support is at 1.6275 then 1.6220, then 1.6132 for today.
On the top we have 1.660, then 1.666.
Trade Plan suggestion: If you need to short do take profit around 1.6275 or 1.622 region. If market rebound just before or after the news and bring the pound back to 1.6488 region, it is an indication for you to take loss.
The pound hit hihg last Friday again at 1.6604, which I see it as a failed attempt to clear resistance at 1.666. This form a double top on the daily chart, bring a full potential for the pound to fall back to 1.6275 region.
Added bads news about the UK banks and BoE needs to approve emergency loans to financial institutions. To some extent, it seems that the U.K. financial system may have been hit by the credit crisis in a far harder and deeper fashion than other regions.
Today at 1730hrs SGT, UK will be reporting on Construction PMI. There should report better than expected and may keep the pound above 1.6275. Contrary to house prices, this housing sector indicator is still negative. This time, it’s expected to go back up to 47.2, but still in the negative zone.
Looking at the CCI, the pound is moving down. CCI is still positive, menaing that the downside potential is there. Support is at 1.6275 then 1.6220, then 1.6132 for today.
On the top we have 1.660, then 1.666.
Trade Plan suggestion: If you need to short do take profit around 1.6275 or 1.622 region. If market rebound just before or after the news and bring the pound back to 1.6488 region, it is an indication for you to take loss.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
28 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound hit the resistance of 1.666 last week, hitting 1.69, before the UK announcement of GDP sent the pound back to 1.63 region.
Over the last 2 days the pound retrace and now is back in the 1.635/1.640 region partly due to Tuesday CBI Realized Sales which saw the fastest growth since lst year, beating expectation.
Yesterday, Adam Posen is a member of the MPC, responsible for rate decisions. He’s rather dovish, urging the expansion of the QE program, if thus doing so will weaken the pound.
Today at the US, we have news from Core Durable Goods Orders at 2030hrs and New Home Sales at 2200hrs. The general expectaion is good, expecting a better report for a growing economy.
Looking at the technical, showed the EMAs at the 1 hour chart sitting on the hinge. A big squeeze was created at the EMA200 at 1.634 and 1.636 region, indicating a major break up or down.
The daily chart show the pound supported at 1.6277 and resisted at 1.644. The next suport is at 1.613/12 region then 1.6024. Of course, breaking 1.666 will bring the pound higher, which may not likely be seen this week.
Trade Plan suggestion: CCI indicate short. Added to the absence of UK news today plus a better than expected US report, will suggest the pound to further retrace to support line at 1.612, then 1.6024.
''''''''
''
nalysis:
The pound hit
'
'''''''''
The pound hit the resistance of 1.666 last week, hitting 1.69, before the UK announcement of GDP sent the pound back to 1.63 region.
Over the last 2 days the pound retrace and now is back in the 1.635/1.640 region partly due to Tuesday CBI Realized Sales which saw the fastest growth since lst year, beating expectation.
Yesterday, Adam Posen is a member of the MPC, responsible for rate decisions. He’s rather dovish, urging the expansion of the QE program, if thus doing so will weaken the pound.
Today at the US, we have news from Core Durable Goods Orders at 2030hrs and New Home Sales at 2200hrs. The general expectaion is good, expecting a better report for a growing economy.
Looking at the technical, showed the EMAs at the 1 hour chart sitting on the hinge. A big squeeze was created at the EMA200 at 1.634 and 1.636 region, indicating a major break up or down.
The daily chart show the pound supported at 1.6277 and resisted at 1.644. The next suport is at 1.613/12 region then 1.6024. Of course, breaking 1.666 will bring the pound higher, which may not likely be seen this week.
Trade Plan suggestion: CCI indicate short. Added to the absence of UK news today plus a better than expected US report, will suggest the pound to further retrace to support line at 1.612, then 1.6024.
''''''''
''
nalysis:
The pound hit
'
'''''''''
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
21 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Crude has been climbing steadily to a near $79. That means a weaker dollar and that could means a greater demand for crude as the world economy improves. $80 look like a phychological resistance.
The Dow took a turn yesterday, registering a dip. Added, most of the US news on housing and core PPI was reported worse than expected.
The pound hit another resistance at 1.647 and made new high at 1.649, but now has retraced to 1.636/38.
The dollars is looking for some consolidation from the way Dow (equity market) and the way crude price goes. In fact tonight US crude oil inventories at 2230hrs SGT is something to note and may force the price to fall thus suggest the returning strength of the dollars.
At the technicals, the EMA21 has not clear EMA55 and EMA100. Obviously pound hit resistance at 1.649 and retrace. Afternoon, at 1600hrs, UK annoucing MPC minutes plus 1800 UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations. This may force the pound to retrace to support at 1.622, then 1.612. CCI is now above 100, meaning that though it can climb higher but is in for some consolidation
If pound managed to clear 1.65, then next resistance is at 1.666.
Trade Plan Suggestion: Wait for consolidation to finish. It may rebound at 1.622, but it may goes further down to 1.612. If it break 1.65/ 52, go for long and TP at 1.660/65.
Crude has been climbing steadily to a near $79. That means a weaker dollar and that could means a greater demand for crude as the world economy improves. $80 look like a phychological resistance.
The Dow took a turn yesterday, registering a dip. Added, most of the US news on housing and core PPI was reported worse than expected.
The pound hit another resistance at 1.647 and made new high at 1.649, but now has retraced to 1.636/38.
The dollars is looking for some consolidation from the way Dow (equity market) and the way crude price goes. In fact tonight US crude oil inventories at 2230hrs SGT is something to note and may force the price to fall thus suggest the returning strength of the dollars.
At the technicals, the EMA21 has not clear EMA55 and EMA100. Obviously pound hit resistance at 1.649 and retrace. Afternoon, at 1600hrs, UK annoucing MPC minutes plus 1800 UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations. This may force the pound to retrace to support at 1.622, then 1.612. CCI is now above 100, meaning that though it can climb higher but is in for some consolidation
If pound managed to clear 1.65, then next resistance is at 1.666.
Trade Plan Suggestion: Wait for consolidation to finish. It may rebound at 1.622, but it may goes further down to 1.612. If it break 1.65/ 52, go for long and TP at 1.660/65.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
20 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound has indeed swing back and strenghten against the dollar yesterday. It hit its resistance at 1.64/ 42 yesterday, making a clear for WMA5 to be above EMA100 and EMA55 on the daily chart.
Wht is left to watch is for the EMA21 to clear EMA100/EMA55, then that will clearly bring the resistance at 1.64/42 region to become the support.
The news this week and today will set the pace for the pound.Public Sector Net Borrowing, Lending by the government doubled last month, indicating that more money is going to be spent. From 16.2 billion, the expectations for this month are for a small drop to 15.2 billion. This news will be published today at 1630hrs SGT.
As of now resistance is still at 1.64/42 region. The next is at 1.647. Support is at 1.622, then 1.614.
Trade Plan sugesstion: Wait for the news at 1630hrs, if it is a positive news, do a long , but TP before US opening or TP at around 1.642 to 1.647 region. Alternative, choose to long at 1.622 region.
The pound has indeed swing back and strenghten against the dollar yesterday. It hit its resistance at 1.64/ 42 yesterday, making a clear for WMA5 to be above EMA100 and EMA55 on the daily chart.
Wht is left to watch is for the EMA21 to clear EMA100/EMA55, then that will clearly bring the resistance at 1.64/42 region to become the support.
The news this week and today will set the pace for the pound.Public Sector Net Borrowing, Lending by the government doubled last month, indicating that more money is going to be spent. From 16.2 billion, the expectations for this month are for a small drop to 15.2 billion. This news will be published today at 1630hrs SGT.
As of now resistance is still at 1.64/42 region. The next is at 1.647. Support is at 1.622, then 1.614.
Trade Plan sugesstion: Wait for the news at 1630hrs, if it is a positive news, do a long , but TP before US opening or TP at around 1.642 to 1.647 region. Alternative, choose to long at 1.622 region.
Monday, October 19, 2009
19 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Now WMA5 is above EMA100 on the daily chart. This bring the support to 1.622/ 1.620 region.
Today there is a absent of news but watch out for fed chairman speech at 2300hrs SGT.
After 15 Oct climb, the pound will need a breather, which took place on Friday 16 Oct and may continue to do so this week. Taking reference from the Euro, consolidation has started.
CCI is in a state of consolidation, meaning that there is no clear incidation of pound direction.
Ressistance is at 1.646 then, 1.659.
Trading plan susggestion: It will be safer to watc where pound consolidate to and probably at the support region of 1.62. At such poistion a long can be triggered TP at 1.639. For more conservative, wait for clearer signal from CCI.
Now WMA5 is above EMA100 on the daily chart. This bring the support to 1.622/ 1.620 region.
Today there is a absent of news but watch out for fed chairman speech at 2300hrs SGT.
After 15 Oct climb, the pound will need a breather, which took place on Friday 16 Oct and may continue to do so this week. Taking reference from the Euro, consolidation has started.
CCI is in a state of consolidation, meaning that there is no clear incidation of pound direction.
Ressistance is at 1.646 then, 1.659.
Trading plan susggestion: It will be safer to watc where pound consolidate to and probably at the support region of 1.62. At such poistion a long can be triggered TP at 1.639. For more conservative, wait for clearer signal from CCI.
Friday, October 16, 2009
16 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound did an extraodinary breakout gaining against the Euro and the dollars, achieving more than 250pips.
There are no major news, so why? Speculation around the Bank of England (BOE) decides to ease up on its quantitative easing. When a central bank stops its quantitative easing policies, it typically increases the value of the currency.
In US, unemployment rate fell, giving a boost to the DoW and strength of a economic recovery as minuted by FOMC on Tuesday.
Has the pound break high enough to gain momentum to reach hihger highs? Technically, not yet. WMA5 hit above EMA200, but still have EMA55 and EMA100 to clear on its daily chart. The shot up also meant some consolidation may occur.
Resistance is at 1.639/40 region before consolidation, the next is at 1.645
Support on the other hand is at EMA55/EMA100 region at 1.62, then 1.612.
Trade Plan suggestion: Take some profit for those who have long at 1.639/40 region.
Not a time to short. If consoldiation does take place, place a long at 1.62 or 1.612 region.
The pound did an extraodinary breakout gaining against the Euro and the dollars, achieving more than 250pips.
There are no major news, so why? Speculation around the Bank of England (BOE) decides to ease up on its quantitative easing. When a central bank stops its quantitative easing policies, it typically increases the value of the currency.
In US, unemployment rate fell, giving a boost to the DoW and strength of a economic recovery as minuted by FOMC on Tuesday.
Has the pound break high enough to gain momentum to reach hihger highs? Technically, not yet. WMA5 hit above EMA200, but still have EMA55 and EMA100 to clear on its daily chart. The shot up also meant some consolidation may occur.
Resistance is at 1.639/40 region before consolidation, the next is at 1.645
Support on the other hand is at EMA55/EMA100 region at 1.62, then 1.612.
Trade Plan suggestion: Take some profit for those who have long at 1.639/40 region.
Not a time to short. If consoldiation does take place, place a long at 1.62 or 1.612 region.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
15 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Euro hit high, Dow hit 10000, crude surpass $75.. All these continues to point to a weakness in the dollar. The dollar index has fallen bleow its key support at 76.
With better than expected news from UK yesterday, it spike the pound up another 200 pips.
With no UK news in the afternoon, any further spike will depend on this evening US unemplyment claims at 2030hrs SGT.
Technically, the pound cleared the first resistance at 1.602, then 1.612. WMA5 has not clear EMA200 and neither has it punch through EMA100 and EMA55 before a considerations for a breakout up.
Pound may return to its supprt at 1.579.
Trade Plan suggestion: Direction is very uncertain. Thus trade taking small profit. Either long or short may be right. Beware of resistance and support.
Euro hit high, Dow hit 10000, crude surpass $75.. All these continues to point to a weakness in the dollar. The dollar index has fallen bleow its key support at 76.
With better than expected news from UK yesterday, it spike the pound up another 200 pips.
With no UK news in the afternoon, any further spike will depend on this evening US unemplyment claims at 2030hrs SGT.
Technically, the pound cleared the first resistance at 1.602, then 1.612. WMA5 has not clear EMA200 and neither has it punch through EMA100 and EMA55 before a considerations for a breakout up.
Pound may return to its supprt at 1.579.
Trade Plan suggestion: Direction is very uncertain. Thus trade taking small profit. Either long or short may be right. Beware of resistance and support.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
14 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
A mix of good and bad news was reported yesterday. CPI which indicate the case for inflation showed worse than expected resulted, while RPI (differs from CPI in that it only measures goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households, and it includes housing costs which are excluded from CPI) are better off.
The pound rebound off 1.57 and did a return to 1.592, a 200 pips rebound.
The Euro also made new high at 1.4855, indicating a path of confidence in the Germany and France. That may may triggered the pound which has been weak for the last week.
Added, crude has been above $74 and gold above $1069, given the weak dollars.
The pound is still not able to clear its EMA200 at 1.598 region. Thus given any consolidation of the dollars to strengthen, by looking at how crude and gold has climbed, the weakest currency which is the pound may weaken.
Its support lies at the cruial 1.570, then 1.555.
Trade plan suggestion: CCI is squeezing. For those who has short pound hold to see if it does come down today, else let go when it hit above 1.597. You may enter a long either above 1.602 to TP at 1.610/12 or wait to enter long at 1.57.
A mix of good and bad news was reported yesterday. CPI which indicate the case for inflation showed worse than expected resulted, while RPI (differs from CPI in that it only measures goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households, and it includes housing costs which are excluded from CPI) are better off.
The pound rebound off 1.57 and did a return to 1.592, a 200 pips rebound.
The Euro also made new high at 1.4855, indicating a path of confidence in the Germany and France. That may may triggered the pound which has been weak for the last week.
Added, crude has been above $74 and gold above $1069, given the weak dollars.
The pound is still not able to clear its EMA200 at 1.598 region. Thus given any consolidation of the dollars to strengthen, by looking at how crude and gold has climbed, the weakest currency which is the pound may weaken.
Its support lies at the cruial 1.570, then 1.555.
Trade plan suggestion: CCI is squeezing. For those who has short pound hold to see if it does come down today, else let go when it hit above 1.597. You may enter a long either above 1.602 to TP at 1.610/12 or wait to enter long at 1.57.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
13 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
According to Bloomberg, UK housing market strengthens on home shortage as reported this morning. Likewise, UK Same-store retail up 2.8%.
This afternoon, more UK news release at 1630hrs SGT on CPI and RPI.
The pound was not able to keep above its EMA200 for the last few days. It nows hover below EMA200 at 1.58 and 1.57. It has not shown break down, but given the goods news this morning, it may contain the drop. All ears will be on news this afternoon. CCI has indicate a downward movement, thus adding to any worse than expected news this afternoon, the pound may break below 1.57 and sail towards 1.554.
Of course, given the better than expected news, it may help the pound to recover ground. But of course resistance is at 1.598 and 1.612.
Trade Plan suggestion: Do short, take profit at 1.570. If the pound break up, let go of short poistion at 1.612
According to Bloomberg, UK housing market strengthens on home shortage as reported this morning. Likewise, UK Same-store retail up 2.8%.
This afternoon, more UK news release at 1630hrs SGT on CPI and RPI.
The pound was not able to keep above its EMA200 for the last few days. It nows hover below EMA200 at 1.58 and 1.57. It has not shown break down, but given the goods news this morning, it may contain the drop. All ears will be on news this afternoon. CCI has indicate a downward movement, thus adding to any worse than expected news this afternoon, the pound may break below 1.57 and sail towards 1.554.
Of course, given the better than expected news, it may help the pound to recover ground. But of course resistance is at 1.598 and 1.612.
Trade Plan suggestion: Do short, take profit at 1.570. If the pound break up, let go of short poistion at 1.612
Monday, October 12, 2009
12 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Technically, the pound has yet to clear off its resistance at daily EMA200 at 1.600. Last week it attempt but failed and over last Friday, it fall back to 1.58.
today is a day without major news, with both Japan and US banks on holiday.
Looking at the technical side, pound will maintain within trading range of 1.598 and 1.579.
With expection of breakout, if it does above 1.60, it will still face resistance at 1.612. On the down side, support at 1.579 is near, with the next level at 1.59.
Trading plan suggestion: trade long at support or trade short at resistance. Take small profit. CCI has indicated a zone of uncertainty, meaning that it has just reverse down, but it is not a time to enter short.
Technically, the pound has yet to clear off its resistance at daily EMA200 at 1.600. Last week it attempt but failed and over last Friday, it fall back to 1.58.
today is a day without major news, with both Japan and US banks on holiday.
Looking at the technical side, pound will maintain within trading range of 1.598 and 1.579.
With expection of breakout, if it does above 1.60, it will still face resistance at 1.612. On the down side, support at 1.579 is near, with the next level at 1.59.
Trading plan suggestion: trade long at support or trade short at resistance. Take small profit. CCI has indicated a zone of uncertainty, meaning that it has just reverse down, but it is not a time to enter short.
Thursday, October 08, 2009
8 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Movement was slow, and the pound still managed to maintain and keep within the range of 1.58 and 1.60.
Today, UK CB Leading Index report at 1700hrs SGT. This compound index of 7 economic indicators is based on past data. Despite this fact, the timing, just two hours before the rate decision, can fuel nervousness. The leading index rose in the past four months, with a 0.7% rise last time.
MPC will most likely to maintain interest rates constant. The tentative time for this report is at 1900hrs SGT.
On the technical side, pound has been squeezing since the last week of September. Resistance is at 1.62 and support is at 1.577. The pound continues to form a triangle, meaning trading range became smaller. Yesterday was only within 200 pips.
The news will have impact on the new direction of the pound, that is above 1.60 towards 1.62, then 1.64. Or it may swing down towards 1.57 and head lower towards 1.50.
Trading Suggestion: Do a wait and see before the news decide the direction. The best way to trade is to trade breakout, above 1.62 and below 1.57.
Movement was slow, and the pound still managed to maintain and keep within the range of 1.58 and 1.60.
Today, UK CB Leading Index report at 1700hrs SGT. This compound index of 7 economic indicators is based on past data. Despite this fact, the timing, just two hours before the rate decision, can fuel nervousness. The leading index rose in the past four months, with a 0.7% rise last time.
MPC will most likely to maintain interest rates constant. The tentative time for this report is at 1900hrs SGT.
On the technical side, pound has been squeezing since the last week of September. Resistance is at 1.62 and support is at 1.577. The pound continues to form a triangle, meaning trading range became smaller. Yesterday was only within 200 pips.
The news will have impact on the new direction of the pound, that is above 1.60 towards 1.62, then 1.64. Or it may swing down towards 1.57 and head lower towards 1.50.
Trading Suggestion: Do a wait and see before the news decide the direction. The best way to trade is to trade breakout, above 1.62 and below 1.57.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
7 Oct 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound was doing well, hitting high at 1.604 right after hopes for a recovery in the housing market were fuelled today as Halifax, the building society, recorded a 1.6 per cent increase in house prices for September.
But U.K. manufacturing production unexpectedly slumped in August to the lowest level since 1992, a sign the economy is struggling to shake off the recession. This entirely pull the pound back to 1.588.
Today will be a quiet day. Another day of range trading from 1.602 to 1.582. Resistance is still at 1.6025, then 1.6075, then 1.62. If wee can clear 1.6075, there will be a indication for pound to untangle this dead lock of moving side way.
Support is at 1.570, then 1.554. Breaking below 1.570 is a serious indicator for another round of downward movement.
Trading Suggestion: CCI is still "long" but a prolong side movement has already show weakness of reversal. Coupled with the lack of news today, I am expecting a breakout. Therefore if there is a need to trade, trade with taking immediate small profits. Either long of short will be good, but keep within the range of 1.6025 and 1.580
The pound was doing well, hitting high at 1.604 right after hopes for a recovery in the housing market were fuelled today as Halifax, the building society, recorded a 1.6 per cent increase in house prices for September.
But U.K. manufacturing production unexpectedly slumped in August to the lowest level since 1992, a sign the economy is struggling to shake off the recession. This entirely pull the pound back to 1.588.
Today will be a quiet day. Another day of range trading from 1.602 to 1.582. Resistance is still at 1.6025, then 1.6075, then 1.62. If wee can clear 1.6075, there will be a indication for pound to untangle this dead lock of moving side way.
Support is at 1.570, then 1.554. Breaking below 1.570 is a serious indicator for another round of downward movement.
Trading Suggestion: CCI is still "long" but a prolong side movement has already show weakness of reversal. Coupled with the lack of news today, I am expecting a breakout. Therefore if there is a need to trade, trade with taking immediate small profits. Either long of short will be good, but keep within the range of 1.6025 and 1.580
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)