4 Mar 2008

GJ
GJ make a new year low yesterday, hitting 203.48. It rebounce off this support and head straight towards EMA21 (1 hour chart).

Of course, it is always two things would happen - up or down. The price now hovers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart).

Should the price turn down and sail towards 203.0, it will gain momentum to hit towards 200

Resistacne line is at EMA100 (1 hour chart) at 206.3

GU
GU price nows hovers between EMA100 and EMA200 ( 1hour chart). The channel has been closing and a breakout would happen.

Should the price clear 1.980, it will it supported at 1.975 (EMA55 daiy chart) before deciding to rebound up or continue its road south.

Should the price break 1.987, it will gain momentum to hit 1.996 (EMA200 daily chart) and potential clear 2.000

3 Mar 2008

GJ
It did a dive all the all to its year low at 204.6. The price this morning hit 204.4.

Support will lies at 204.4 and should GU break this price, a record low will be set at 200!
Of course, a likely reversal towards EMA21 (dailychart) at 209.3. Wait for CCI to reverese before placing long position.

GU
From the daily chart WMA5 nows sandwich between EMA100 and EMA200. A likely consolidation before a breakout would occur.

Resistance is at EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.997 and support is at EMA55 and EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.974

Wait for breakout for a clear GU direction.

29 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 210.16
Lo 207.95

GJ did a major pull down yesterday. It broke through the support at 209.0
The next support is at 207

Potential, GJ needs a breather or a reverse before another climb down.

I expect it to reverse at 208 back to EMA21 (1 hour chart) at ~209.5
Of course should be it below 207.5, it may go to the next support at 207.0 / 206.0


GU
GU did another attempt at 1.997 (EMA200 Daily chart). It breakout of the EMA21 (1 hour chart) at 1.986 and instead of reversing to EMA100 (1 hour chart) to 1.980.

The price now is at 1.988, hovering just above EMA21 (1 hour chart)
It may does another breakout at 1.995 and potential to head towards 2.000
It may on the other choose to consolidate and move side way, or attempt to break EMA21 (1 hour chart) towards EMA55 (1 hour chart) at 1.980

28 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 211.85
Lo 210.64

The market went down with a more than 200pips dip yesterday, after a failed breakout from EMA55 (daily chart) north towards EMA100 (daily chart). As such EMA55 will still form a resistance at ~213.50

Support is at EMA21 (daily chart) at ~210.40. A breakout south from EMA21 will find support at ~209.0 (Fib retracement daily chart)

GU
The price attempt EAM200 (Daily chart) yesterday. In fact it did a double top before climbing down, and sail pass EMA21 (1 hour chart).

I expect the price to consolidate today, after the last 2 days of big movement. The band will be between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart) at 1.985 and 1.980 respectively.

CCI has not go into overbought, but gradient is tapering off. Of course breakout north is still possible at 1.985 towards EMA200 (daily chart) and beyond.

Should GU break south, it will be supported at 1.976 (EMA100 1 hour chart) followed by 1.970 (EMA200, 1 hour chart)

27 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 213.52
Lo 212.83

GJ tested the EMA55 (daily chart) and start its retracement to EMA21 (1 hour chart) in the morning trading.

Resistance EMA55 (daily chart) at 213.0 and the next at EMA100 (daily chart) at ~217.0
Support is at EMA55 (1 hour chart) at 212.3

Should GJ clear past Hi at 213.52, the traget will be 217. Place long limit at 213.52, TP 214.52, SL 212.52

The movement this morning is fast, expecting a rebound off EMA21 (1 hour chart), before attempting EMA55 (1 hour chart). No clear indication of movement.

GU
It breaks north after sailing past 1.974 and head straight towards 1.985 (high was at 1.989). It did a retracement, but the CCI indicator still shows strength to bring GU to a overbought state.

1.990 is one price to watch. Should GU clear this the next big resistance will be at 2.000, which is also around EMA200 (daily chart).

On the contrary, GU may make a retracement, first to 1.980 (EMA21 1 hour chart), then to 1.974 (EMA55 1 hour chart)

Place long limit order at 1.974, TP 1.985
Long limit order at 1.9900, TP 1.9995

26 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 212.91
Lo 212.23

Resistance ~213.0 (Daily Chart EMA55)
Support 212.13 (1 hour chart EMA21)

Should GU break ~213.0, the next level it will attempt is 217 (daily chart EMA100)
Going down look to face more resistance - from the 1 hour chart EMA21 at 212.13, EMA55 at 211.60, EMA100 at 211.3 and EMA200 at 211.0.

GU consolidated between EMA21 and EMA55 (daily chart).
CCI indicator shows signs of weakening.

The breakout price is at 1.974 for going north, and 1.958 for going south.

The level of resistance at 1.985 (daily chart EMA 100) and support at ~1.940 (where 3 bottoms from the daily chart holds)

25 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 211.47
Lo 210.75

Resistance line at ~213 (1 day chart EMA 55)
Support at ~210.76 ( 1 hour EMA200), in addition, Fib retracement (daily chart) still holds at ~209.0

Place Long Limit 211.47, TP 212.47, SL 210.47
Place short limit 210.75-0.25 = 210.5, TP = 209.5, SL 211.5

GU
I am expecting a movement that is kept within the EMA21 and EMA55 (daily chart). That is 1.970 and 1.961, before a breakout.

As such, long and short order can either be placed to cstch the whip saw movements or simple wait for the breakout.

22 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 211.35
Lo 210.21

The high was created at the last minute of the 0900/0959 SGT candle.
Yesterday a peak was created at ~212, as such this pair may faced resistance at around that level. The next resistance is at ~213.30 (daily chart EMA55). Therefore it is either enter the market order for long and take profit just below 212 (or 25 below 212) to expect a reverse, or enter above 212 to expect a breakout

Support firmly at ~210.67 (1 hour chart EMA200/ EMA100 and EMA55)

Place long limit order at 212.01, TP, 213.01, SL 211.01
Place short limit order at 210.21, TP 209.21, SL 211.21

GU signal for bull run is here. But expect a breather, after yesterday >200pips run. The first resistance line is at 1.971 (EMA55 from daily chart). Should it clear this, the next will be towards EMA100 at 1.986. CCI(14) and CCI(34) shows no sign of reversal, strongly punching through the BB.

Support can be found at EMA21 (1 hour chart) at 1.959. I am expecting a rebound towards 1.971 after the support rebound. Next level of support is at 1.955 (EMA200 1 hour chart)

21 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 210.42
Lo 209.70

Resistance line at EMA200 (1 hour chart ) at ~210.6
Support at Fib retracement (daily chart at ~209.0)

Place Long limit order at 210.42 + 25 = 210.62, TP 211.62, SL 209.62
Short Limit order at 209.7, TP = 209.7-25 = 209.45, SL 208.7

GU should find its support at 1.9330 and 1.9250. Failure to rebound at this level will bring a whole year low, potentially to go below 1.900.

One the positive side, GU has shown sign of reversal, bouncing off the support at 1.9330 yesterday. Still waiting for clear signal in the CCI (daily chart) to confrim reversal.

20 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 210.35
Lo 209.59

Resistance at 1hour 200EMA at 210.8, next at ~213.4 (1day EMA55)
Support at ~209.5 than ~206.8 (Fib retracement from 1 day chart)

To enter high, it will be good to wait for the price to clear EMA200 at 210.8, that is enter at 210.8+0.25 = 211.05, TP at 212.05, SL 210.05

For Low enter at 209.59, TP 208.59, SL at 210.59

Mistake, mistake (added at SGT2000hrs)
As I check the daily fib retracement, a support line was at ~209.0. That means that the short limit order should be place below that.

The short limit order, was filled at 209.59 and the retracement at the support 209.0 was made. As such, any possible chance now was to close the order and hopefully take some profit

GU strongly supported at ~1.9475.
Resistance for breakout at EMA100 1 hour chart at ~1.9525, before meeting another resistance at EMA200 (1 hour chart) at ~1.965

Should support be broken at ~1.9415, GU will create a new low. However on the daily chart, using the CCI signal, GU showed sign of a upward movement. Give another day or so, before confirming any long position.

19 Feb 2008

GJ Hi at 211.50
Lo at 211.69

Resistance remain unchange at ~213.60 (1 day EMA55)
Support remain at ~210.73 (1 day EMA21)

Long Limit order placed at 211.50, TP 212.50, SL 210.50
Short Limit order not placed as I have one short order still open. TP at 209.60, SL at 211.60

GU was supported at ~1.950. I am expecting some whip saw movement in the region 1.960 and 1.950.

A long position above at 1.960 (1 hour 200EMA) will be good for entry.
The next level of support is found at 1.938. CCI signals still show GU having the potential to go lower. Reversal may not in sight today.

18 Feb 2008

GJ Hi at 212.17
Lo at 210.93

Day resistance line is at ~213.77
Day support line at ~210.67

As such, place Long limit order at 212.17, TP at 213.17, SL at 211.17
For short limit order, I placed it at 210.93-25pips = 210.68, TP at 209.68, SL at 211.68

GU should finds its support at 1.9502 and should it be so, formed the B-wave and thus creating the potential for GU to reach new high at 1.974

15 Feb 2008

GJ for 15 Feb

Hi: 212.94
Lo: 211.96

Support line at EMA55 from 1 hr chart at 211.88
Resistance at 214.00

As such Long Limit Order: 212.94, SL 211.94, TP 213.94
Short Limit Order: 211.96-25 = 211.71, SL 212.71, TP 211.11 (70 pips, another support at EMA100 from 1 hour chart)

The reasons for putting a short limit order at 211.71 instead of 211.96 is to clear the EMA55 line. Once cleared, the price will have the liberty to go further to EMA100.

14 Feb 2008

Low for Nicotina GJ play is 211.06 not 211.07, but 1 pip what is the difference.

Anyway, not entering the short limit order play today.

Will wait for long limt order to trigger.

14 Feb

The high and low for GBP/JPY play is
Hi 212.830
Lo 212.07

Hi and Lo taken from 1800GMT to 0159GMT or 0200hrs to 0959hrs Singapore time (SGT), using Oanda 1 hour chart

There is a support (EMA21, 1 hour chart) at 211.83-211.80, moreover the low was triggered at 0959SGT.
Resistance line (EMA55, 1 day chart) at 214.0

As such I will set
Long limit order: 212.830, SL 212.830, TP 213.830
Short Limit order: wait and see, will update again at 1200hrs SGT

26 Nov 2007

1. News: Europe will not have many news today to create major upsets in the currency.

US consumner confidence, which will be announced today at ST 2300hrs, will have an impact. This index has been on the decline, which may confirm Fed about the state of the economy.

2. Stock Markets: US did a small recovery, probably due for some profits taking. Europe lead the way, showing a rebound on Friday.

3. Major Currencies: USD in strengthen on Friday.

4. Technicals: From the CCI, a rebound occurred in the center BB line. BB has also thin out. From the daily chart, WMA5 has been sandwiched between EMA21 and EMA55 for a few days. These are all signs of breakout. From the hour chart, WMA5 has swing above and below EMA200. Today is still a day of dispersions.

5. Personal Assessment: Should a breakout north occur, I will place the resistance at 2.0770 and for the other, support at 2.0500.

22 Nov 2007

1. News: BoE has a vote of 7-2 and therefore it seem for the moment that interest rate is not going to be cut.

US will be having Thanksgiving Holiday.

2. Stock Market: The world market plunged, ranging from Asia to Europe to US. All closes anything from 1.33% to 2.5%! Hang Seng has 4.5%!

3. Major Currencies: USD show sign of weakening against all major currencies.

4. Technicals: From the daily chart, the up is gaining momentum, should CCI cleared the second BB line, a high chance of going up. From the 1 hour chart, formation of a double bottom. WMA5 dip below EMA200 and rebounded above EMA200. Now supporting it and after yesterday battle that seem that the buyers has won, lies EMA200 and EMA100. EMA21 failed to go below EMA200 and indicate further a likelihood for going up. Resistance at 2.0700 and support at 2.0520.

4. Personal Assessment: All play now lies at the EUrope market today. GBP has a news on Bussiness Investment, which has been on the rise - a positive effect on GBP, but this is not a strong news. US stock market is close and with yesterday dip, the momentum will contiune. Technically, it will be a matter of when the GBP break up. From the indicators watch out for CCI to bit the second BB line and for EMA21 to rebound off EMA200. The formation of a double bottom from the 1 hour chart has indicated that the battle was won by the buyers.

21 Nov 2007

1. News: There was no mention on interest rate at FOMC. Instead, "The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, "the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast.

Today ST 1730hrs, BOE issued a generally downbeat assessment of the economy in its quarterly inflation report and effectively indicated that rates would be cut within the next few months. It look to be negative for the UK currency given that there will be a discussion of interest rate cuts and the UK growth risks with the possibility of a very close vote.

2. Stock market: The FTSE gain yesterday by more than 100 points. The rest of Europe also rally. US market took the chance for some profit taking. DOW close 50 points up.

3. Major Currencies: All major currencies except the JPY, did a breakout, strengthening against the GBP.

4. Technicals: From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 managed to punch through EMA200. The testing point will be for GBP to sailed pass the price at 2.0700. A rebound could happen and that gives the support at 2.0520. Another support is at 2.0420.

5. Personal assessment: GBP has not shown any clear direction, but the chances for it to go up is there. CCI has reversed and pierce through the first BB line. EMA21 from the daily chart has passed EMA200 and should it not reverse, given the first support at 2.0520, GBP has again good to go up. BoE will cut rates, but so far only one member consent to it.

20 Nov 2007

1. News: It has been quiet yesterday. Today watch out for US Housing starts - but this figure will continue to fall and will not be much out of expectation. The biggest news to watch for is FOMC at Singapore time Wed 0300hrs. Will Fed cut interest rate?

2. Stock Market: Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.

Stock markets overseas also slumped. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 2.71 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.65 percent.

3. Major Currencies: It has been much a side way movement for the dollars against the major currencies.

4. Technicals: Yesterday saw WMA5 (daily chart) attempting to pass EMA100, but failed. The CCI move down with yesterday price, but not into an oversold position. Likewise on the 1 hour chart, EMA5 failed to punch up through EMA55 and EMA100. The question is a matter of time and attempts. 2.0400 still pose a good support line for price to sail to EMA200 on the daily chart. On the contrary, 2.0570 is a good price for resistance.

5. Personal Assessment: The last two time Fed announced interest rate cut, it push the GBP up. (Sep 18 and Nov 1). There has been hints of no cut this time round. 'Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,' 'since the October rate cut, the data suggests the US economy is still 'resilient,' but noted that volatility and strains remain.' Bernanke warns.

A good look out is for WMA to pass support 2.0400 or EMA100 or pass resistance 2.0570 or EMA55. It can go both way with good chance for both. With a quiet day all brewing towards FOMC - play with caution.

19 Nov 2007

1. News: A series of forthcoming 'downbeat' data releases will not necessarily lead to another interest rate cut, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner has warned financial markets.

There are no major news both from the UK and the US today.

2. Stock Market: In relative to the US, the European market showed weakness on Friday. The FTSE was down by more than 1%. The DOW was down and recovered only in the last hours of trading.

3. Major Currencies:The USD showed no sign of strengthening against the major currencies.

4. Technicals: From the daily chart, CCI did not go into an oversold position. WMA5 rebounded off EMA100 and head straight towards EMA55 and will attempt to clear it. Should it clear it, price will go towards EMA21 at 2.0655. Likewise, the attempt may failed and GBP will go towards EMA200, should WMA5 clear EMA100. The support line is at 2.0400.

5. Personal Assessment: No major news today. The market may consoldiate after last week dip. A uptrend is possible depending how WMA5 perform.