29 Nov 2016 - Forex Setup
Below was a post written some years ago when I started forex. I will be revisiting the indicators especially after the Brexit and the down spike on 7 Oct 2016.
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.comand http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Thursday, July 23, 2015
23 July 2015; GBP/USD
23 July 2015; GBP/USD
1 question: which economy will do better? UK or US.
Yesterday on 23 July 2015, BoE had decided not to raise interest rates yet, but has agreed that interest rate will rise (for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis). As a result, the pound went up against the USD at 1630hrs SGT.
But the gains was taken back after US reported better homes sales, a sign of better economic performance. Homes sales beat forecast at 5.40m to 5.49m.
Today, I am expecting the pound to gain first at news on UK retail sales. But because of US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT (which was expected to be lower, lower claims means better US economic performances) and as such will bring the pound down.
I will put a sell at 1.563 and take profit at 1.554. Support at 1.559 (1hr EMA 55, 100 and 200 - converging). Next support at 1.556 (daily EMA55) and at 1.550 (daily EMA 100 and 200).
A break above 1.57 is consider a reversal in the downward trend.
1 question: which economy will do better? UK or US.
Yesterday on 23 July 2015, BoE had decided not to raise interest rates yet, but has agreed that interest rate will rise (for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis). As a result, the pound went up against the USD at 1630hrs SGT.
But the gains was taken back after US reported better homes sales, a sign of better economic performance. Homes sales beat forecast at 5.40m to 5.49m.
Today, I am expecting the pound to gain first at news on UK retail sales. But because of US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT (which was expected to be lower, lower claims means better US economic performances) and as such will bring the pound down.
I will put a sell at 1.563 and take profit at 1.554. Support at 1.559 (1hr EMA 55, 100 and 200 - converging). Next support at 1.556 (daily EMA55) and at 1.550 (daily EMA 100 and 200).
A break above 1.57 is consider a reversal in the downward trend.
Thursday, May 08, 2014
8 May 2014; GBPUSD
8 May 2014; GBPUSD
As I write, the UK HPI -housing sales which is a leading indicator, was down and was at-0.2% instead of +0.8% forecast.
As a result, GU will hang at support at 1.696, then 1.692 before going to 1.688.
CCI indicate a over bought and with the data, the technical also support a down trend. The USD index showed a low for the year. Therefore after GU hit a high of around 1.700, it is some time for profit taking and reversal and consolidation.
Resistance is at 1.6980/ 1.6990.
As I write, the UK HPI -housing sales which is a leading indicator, was down and was at-0.2% instead of +0.8% forecast.
As a result, GU will hang at support at 1.696, then 1.692 before going to 1.688.
CCI indicate a over bought and with the data, the technical also support a down trend. The USD index showed a low for the year. Therefore after GU hit a high of around 1.700, it is some time for profit taking and reversal and consolidation.
Resistance is at 1.6980/ 1.6990.
Wednesday, May 07, 2014
7 May 2014; GBPUSD
7 May 2014; GBPUSD
It is a good spike up to hit near 1.700 from a break at 1.690. The support is the better than expected news coming from Spain unemployment claim as well as UK PMI.
It is now a watch on whether the pound will clear 1.700 with 1.705 a resistance line. In the meanwhile, the support is now at 1.6960/ 1.6970. Then at 1.6920.
Sell at 1.6980 and take profit at 1.6970. But remove sell position when price hit 1.700.
Buy at either 1.6960 or 1.6920. A break below 1.6920 will gain the next support at 1.6880. 1.6830 is a strong support.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout up at 1.705 to buy and wait for break down at 1.6960.
It is a good spike up to hit near 1.700 from a break at 1.690. The support is the better than expected news coming from Spain unemployment claim as well as UK PMI.
It is now a watch on whether the pound will clear 1.700 with 1.705 a resistance line. In the meanwhile, the support is now at 1.6960/ 1.6970. Then at 1.6920.
Sell at 1.6980 and take profit at 1.6970. But remove sell position when price hit 1.700.
Buy at either 1.6960 or 1.6920. A break below 1.6920 will gain the next support at 1.6880. 1.6830 is a strong support.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout up at 1.705 to buy and wait for break down at 1.6960.
Tuesday, May 06, 2014
6 May 2014; GBPUSD
6 May 2014; GBPUSD
The news to watch is at 1630hrs SGT on UK PMI.
The pound has been going up with support at 1.686/ 1.686 (1 hour EMA200). The news will determine whether GU will ascend further towards 1.70/ 1.6990 the psychological level. Next is 1.720 / 1.718 the October 2008 resistance line.
UK has been doing well in its Purchasing Manager Index - It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
It has been above 50 and reaches a height of 60.5 in Sep 2013, but decline to 57.6 last month. The decline is gradual, but above 50 shows that the UK is still buying. In contrast, US PMI is also above 50 and now stands at 54.9 last month. The trend is that it is on the up since it drop to 51.3 in Jan 2014.
So both economy looks good. The stocks market indexes are moving up. UK is slowing down, US is steadying up, with UK buying more than US.
Most advice is to stand at the side line or favoured an attempt of the GU to hit 1.70.
GU reaches a new high of 1.692 last week, so a good sell is at 1.695, take profit fast but remove position if price breached 1.705. Even lower is at 1.6885 and take profit at 1.6876 (1 hour EMA 21/55 line support line)
Alternatively buy at 1 hour EMA200 line at 1.6860. If support is not breached then wait or release by batches the purchase at 1.6870, 1.6880 and 1.6890. Also wait and buy at daily EMA21 line at 1.6835.
If GU goes beyond 1.705 it is a break up else 1.682 is a break down.
The news to watch is at 1630hrs SGT on UK PMI.
The pound has been going up with support at 1.686/ 1.686 (1 hour EMA200). The news will determine whether GU will ascend further towards 1.70/ 1.6990 the psychological level. Next is 1.720 / 1.718 the October 2008 resistance line.
UK has been doing well in its Purchasing Manager Index - It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
It has been above 50 and reaches a height of 60.5 in Sep 2013, but decline to 57.6 last month. The decline is gradual, but above 50 shows that the UK is still buying. In contrast, US PMI is also above 50 and now stands at 54.9 last month. The trend is that it is on the up since it drop to 51.3 in Jan 2014.
So both economy looks good. The stocks market indexes are moving up. UK is slowing down, US is steadying up, with UK buying more than US.
Most advice is to stand at the side line or favoured an attempt of the GU to hit 1.70.
GU reaches a new high of 1.692 last week, so a good sell is at 1.695, take profit fast but remove position if price breached 1.705. Even lower is at 1.6885 and take profit at 1.6876 (1 hour EMA 21/55 line support line)
Alternatively buy at 1 hour EMA200 line at 1.6860. If support is not breached then wait or release by batches the purchase at 1.6870, 1.6880 and 1.6890. Also wait and buy at daily EMA21 line at 1.6835.
If GU goes beyond 1.705 it is a break up else 1.682 is a break down.
Monday, May 05, 2014
5 May 2014; GBPUSD
5 May 2014; GBPUSD
After a long break for holiday, it looks that GU made a climb and break out of its 1.680, then 1.6850 resistance line.
Accordingly, since Mar 24, GU has made the climb. The peak was reach just last Thursday. Using a Fib retracement on a daily chart the new resistance line is at 1.720. Given a large gap between now at 1.6875 to 1.7200, the intermediate resistance is at 1.692, then the psychological line at 1.700, then 1.7070.
What support the upward movement is that BoE monetary policy and the support for capital flow that is in favour for a long. Economic data releases has shown that UK is doing better. PMI releases tomorrow at 1630hrs SGT is a critical to continue supporting the upward trend.
On the technicals, GU has been largely overbought. There has no indicator that show a up. But neither does it show a down as CCI(34) on the daily moves side and no over bought.
As such, potential if GU goes down, it will be a good buy at 1.6854 (1hour EMA200) and at 1.6830 (daily EMA21). Or to buy or breakout at above 1.694. Take small profits and beware of resistance at 1.6875, 1.692 and 1.700.
Support is at the buying entry at 1.6854, 1.6830 and 1.6744 (Fib retracement and daily EMA55).
After a long break for holiday, it looks that GU made a climb and break out of its 1.680, then 1.6850 resistance line.
Accordingly, since Mar 24, GU has made the climb. The peak was reach just last Thursday. Using a Fib retracement on a daily chart the new resistance line is at 1.720. Given a large gap between now at 1.6875 to 1.7200, the intermediate resistance is at 1.692, then the psychological line at 1.700, then 1.7070.
What support the upward movement is that BoE monetary policy and the support for capital flow that is in favour for a long. Economic data releases has shown that UK is doing better. PMI releases tomorrow at 1630hrs SGT is a critical to continue supporting the upward trend.
On the technicals, GU has been largely overbought. There has no indicator that show a up. But neither does it show a down as CCI(34) on the daily moves side and no over bought.
As such, potential if GU goes down, it will be a good buy at 1.6854 (1hour EMA200) and at 1.6830 (daily EMA21). Or to buy or breakout at above 1.694. Take small profits and beware of resistance at 1.6875, 1.692 and 1.700.
Support is at the buying entry at 1.6854, 1.6830 and 1.6744 (Fib retracement and daily EMA55).
Thursday, April 17, 2014
17 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
17 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
What do you have to say? GU attempt to break pass 1.6840-50 to set a new high from 2009!
Will it fail today or will it succeed leaving a trail this long weekend?
There will be retracement, but the price now hovers between 1.6810 and 1.6840 since last evening (SGT) till now.
As such, play when a break occurs.
Enter a buy if GU breaks 1.6850 and abandon position if the break up does not occur and price return to 1.6810. Take profit at the next resistance at the half way mark around 1.6950.
Enter a sell if GU breaks 1.6820 and abandon position if break down does not occur and price return to 1.6830. Take profit at next support at 1.6800, then 1.6750.
What do you have to say? GU attempt to break pass 1.6840-50 to set a new high from 2009!
Will it fail today or will it succeed leaving a trail this long weekend?
There will be retracement, but the price now hovers between 1.6810 and 1.6840 since last evening (SGT) till now.
As such, play when a break occurs.
Enter a buy if GU breaks 1.6850 and abandon position if the break up does not occur and price return to 1.6810. Take profit at the next resistance at the half way mark around 1.6950.
Enter a sell if GU breaks 1.6820 and abandon position if break down does not occur and price return to 1.6830. Take profit at next support at 1.6800, then 1.6750.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
16 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
16 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
I still maintain a down trend - with technicals from my CCI(14) coupled with BB(14, 0.9) and BB(14,1.2). The CCI is still in the BB region and has not exit after being over bought at 250 points.
It is a see-saw from the news. A "better" UK economic report at 1630hrs SGT yesterday and followed a decision by the Fed that US will maintain interest rate (a sign that the economy is still not ready for recovery).
The news force the pound to climb above 1.6730 and later to 1.6750. It did not break resistance at 1.6760.
Today at 1630hrs SGT we have UK claimant payout. It is expected that the UK to be doing better with less payout. Will that force the pound to climb and break resistance at 1.6760 - possible. If by doing so, the next level of resistance is at 1.6800 to 1.6820 region.
A failure to break above 1.6760 and a break below 1.6690 is the support at 1.6660. The price now is hover between 1.6740 and 1.6710.
From the 1 hour chart support is at EMA200 at 1.6710.
As such it will be a good wait for the news and see the direction. Alternative sell at around 1.6740 and buy around 1.6710 before the news and take small profits. Abandon position if a break occur at 1.6750 and below 1.6690.
If you are playing the 15 minutes using BB(14, 1.8), wait after the first candle after breakout. Again followed the abandon plan as mention above.
I still maintain a down trend - with technicals from my CCI(14) coupled with BB(14, 0.9) and BB(14,1.2). The CCI is still in the BB region and has not exit after being over bought at 250 points.
It is a see-saw from the news. A "better" UK economic report at 1630hrs SGT yesterday and followed a decision by the Fed that US will maintain interest rate (a sign that the economy is still not ready for recovery).
The news force the pound to climb above 1.6730 and later to 1.6750. It did not break resistance at 1.6760.
Today at 1630hrs SGT we have UK claimant payout. It is expected that the UK to be doing better with less payout. Will that force the pound to climb and break resistance at 1.6760 - possible. If by doing so, the next level of resistance is at 1.6800 to 1.6820 region.
A failure to break above 1.6760 and a break below 1.6690 is the support at 1.6660. The price now is hover between 1.6740 and 1.6710.
From the 1 hour chart support is at EMA200 at 1.6710.
As such it will be a good wait for the news and see the direction. Alternative sell at around 1.6740 and buy around 1.6710 before the news and take small profits. Abandon position if a break occur at 1.6750 and below 1.6690.
If you are playing the 15 minutes using BB(14, 1.8), wait after the first candle after breakout. Again followed the abandon plan as mention above.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
15 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
15 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
CCI (Daily) showed a down trend. Will there be any fundamentals that support the trend?
At 1630hrs, UK is reporting is inflation numbers (CPI) and in a likely beat, the number will be down and thus drawing a possible reversal in the trend.
Coupled at 1700hrs SGT, the German economic sentiments is also expect to improve.
As such, it will be nice to wait for the release of the news before a entry.
GU break the support at 1.6717 and now hovers in the region between 1.6680 and 1.6710 (1 hour EMA200). If the price breaks 1.6680 with the news release (failed to meet expectation), GU will hit towards 1.6660 then 1.6630. A support sustain by the daily EMA21 and EMA55 respectively.
On the up trend support is at 1.6720 then 1.6760 (Daily chart Fib retracement).
A good entry will be after the news release and wait for the price to break below 1.6680 to 1.6670. A shot down to the next support at 1.6660-1.6630 to take profit.
On the other hand, a break above 1.6730 (clear all EMA from 1 hour chart) with the entry after the news. Take profit at resistance line 1.6745 to 1.6760.
CCI (Daily) showed a down trend. Will there be any fundamentals that support the trend?
At 1630hrs, UK is reporting is inflation numbers (CPI) and in a likely beat, the number will be down and thus drawing a possible reversal in the trend.
Coupled at 1700hrs SGT, the German economic sentiments is also expect to improve.
As such, it will be nice to wait for the release of the news before a entry.
GU break the support at 1.6717 and now hovers in the region between 1.6680 and 1.6710 (1 hour EMA200). If the price breaks 1.6680 with the news release (failed to meet expectation), GU will hit towards 1.6660 then 1.6630. A support sustain by the daily EMA21 and EMA55 respectively.
On the up trend support is at 1.6720 then 1.6760 (Daily chart Fib retracement).
A good entry will be after the news release and wait for the price to break below 1.6680 to 1.6670. A shot down to the next support at 1.6660-1.6630 to take profit.
On the other hand, a break above 1.6730 (clear all EMA from 1 hour chart) with the entry after the news. Take profit at resistance line 1.6745 to 1.6760.
Monday, April 14, 2014
14 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
14 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
With an attempt for the GU but failed to break above 1.6850 (a high in 2009), GU will find its retracement to the Fib level at 1.6757 then 1.6717. It look like a support is formed at 1.6720 region.
There is no major news in the afternoon to break the price above or below the support. It will then be in the evening during US trading period to look out for 2030hrsSGT US retail sales.
In an event if the price is sustained above 1.6700, then the GU will hovers in the region towards 1.6800. Else if the price breaks below 1.6680, GU will hit towards support at 1.6650.
CCI daily is set on a down trend mode. After over bought at 150 (>250), CCI enters the BB(14, 1.2) and also BB(14, 0.9). To further support the down trend, we need some fundamentals. The meeting from the bankers in Europe caution that not all economy are on the ways to recovery. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. -CNBC
The stock market opens with caution - Asian market is mixed and the European market open down. This was after last week sell off.
As such, a sell is favoured, butas the support is near 1.6717, a rebound is possible. As such sell at around 1.6740-1.6750 and take small profits or wait for break out below 1.6700 to sell and take profit at support around 1.6680.
With an attempt for the GU but failed to break above 1.6850 (a high in 2009), GU will find its retracement to the Fib level at 1.6757 then 1.6717. It look like a support is formed at 1.6720 region.
There is no major news in the afternoon to break the price above or below the support. It will then be in the evening during US trading period to look out for 2030hrsSGT US retail sales.
In an event if the price is sustained above 1.6700, then the GU will hovers in the region towards 1.6800. Else if the price breaks below 1.6680, GU will hit towards support at 1.6650.
CCI daily is set on a down trend mode. After over bought at 150 (>250), CCI enters the BB(14, 1.2) and also BB(14, 0.9). To further support the down trend, we need some fundamentals. The meeting from the bankers in Europe caution that not all economy are on the ways to recovery. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. -CNBC
The stock market opens with caution - Asian market is mixed and the European market open down. This was after last week sell off.
As such, a sell is favoured, butas the support is near 1.6717, a rebound is possible. As such sell at around 1.6740-1.6750 and take small profits or wait for break out below 1.6700 to sell and take profit at support around 1.6680.
Friday, April 11, 2014
11 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
11 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
Daily CCI indicate a potential down. However, caution has to be taken as the CCI though over bought has not cut the BB(14, 1.2) line. There are news today at 2030hrs on US PPI (Producer Price Index) and at 2155hrs SGT, US Consumer sentiments.
GU has hit high at 1.6820. Will it climb higher? If yes, I set the resistance at 1.6850. That if upon breaking through it will go higher to 1.6950 (a half way mark between 1.7050 and 1.6850. This will be the new region for GU should it break 1.6850 barrier.
Support is at 1.6680, a large gap to go. Intermediate support is at 1.6760 (1 hour EMA55), 1.6725 (1 hour EMA 100) and then 1.6680 which is also 1 hour EMA200.
Trade selling GU when it reach 15min high outside BB(14, 1.8) and take small profits. Buy at intermediate support and also take small profits. Do not leave open position before the US news.
Daily CCI indicate a potential down. However, caution has to be taken as the CCI though over bought has not cut the BB(14, 1.2) line. There are news today at 2030hrs on US PPI (Producer Price Index) and at 2155hrs SGT, US Consumer sentiments.
GU has hit high at 1.6820. Will it climb higher? If yes, I set the resistance at 1.6850. That if upon breaking through it will go higher to 1.6950 (a half way mark between 1.7050 and 1.6850. This will be the new region for GU should it break 1.6850 barrier.
Support is at 1.6680, a large gap to go. Intermediate support is at 1.6760 (1 hour EMA55), 1.6725 (1 hour EMA 100) and then 1.6680 which is also 1 hour EMA200.
Trade selling GU when it reach 15min high outside BB(14, 1.8) and take small profits. Buy at intermediate support and also take small profits. Do not leave open position before the US news.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
19 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
19 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
From last night FOMC, the US economy is still on the stage of recovery and not quite what Ms Yellen said earlier that rates is going raise soon (an indication of a better to do economy). On the other hand UK manufacturing products on Tuesday surprises all with a large positive gain - a return from negative zone. The 2 combination pushes GU up to a high that has not seen for the last 3 years.
What's next? Obvious resistance at 1.6800 - 1.6850. Will there be some consolidation?
In a likely case, there will be some consolidation around the resistance line, with the daily CCI pointing a an over bought position. Support is at 1.678 - 1.674, a half way mark between the Fib retracement line. So it is always good to find a buy around support and sell at resistance.
New today will come from UK 1900hrs SGT official bank rates. Then at 2030hrs SGT US unemployment claims.
If a break occurs above 1.6850 and is able to hold, it is good to abandon sell position and take buy towards the next resistance at 1.6950, the 50% mark between the Fib retracement line. Next level of support is at 1.6680, so again abandon buy when 1.674 line is breach.
From last night FOMC, the US economy is still on the stage of recovery and not quite what Ms Yellen said earlier that rates is going raise soon (an indication of a better to do economy). On the other hand UK manufacturing products on Tuesday surprises all with a large positive gain - a return from negative zone. The 2 combination pushes GU up to a high that has not seen for the last 3 years.
What's next? Obvious resistance at 1.6800 - 1.6850. Will there be some consolidation?
In a likely case, there will be some consolidation around the resistance line, with the daily CCI pointing a an over bought position. Support is at 1.678 - 1.674, a half way mark between the Fib retracement line. So it is always good to find a buy around support and sell at resistance.
New today will come from UK 1900hrs SGT official bank rates. Then at 2030hrs SGT US unemployment claims.
If a break occurs above 1.6850 and is able to hold, it is good to abandon sell position and take buy towards the next resistance at 1.6950, the 50% mark between the Fib retracement line. Next level of support is at 1.6680, so again abandon buy when 1.674 line is breach.
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
8 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
8 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
GU shot up and out of the hourly EMA200 and hit resistance at 1.6620. There are no news to support the action and in my opinion the price will most likely return to at least the EMA200 at 1.6600.
There are 1 UK news today - 1630hrs SGT UK manufacturing production. The news may send the pound higher than 1.6620 towards 1.6650 or end back at resistance level at 1.6605 then 1.6580.
Technically, CCI(14) at daily chart indicate a probability of the pound on the down trend.
GU shot up and out of the hourly EMA200 and hit resistance at 1.6620. There are no news to support the action and in my opinion the price will most likely return to at least the EMA200 at 1.6600.
There are 1 UK news today - 1630hrs SGT UK manufacturing production. The news may send the pound higher than 1.6620 towards 1.6650 or end back at resistance level at 1.6605 then 1.6580.
Technically, CCI(14) at daily chart indicate a probability of the pound on the down trend.
Monday, April 07, 2014
7 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
7 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
Is it the end of the down trend? From the daily CCI(14), it has exit the BB(14, 1.2), meaning an end. It now enter a phase of consolidation with a possible of reversal or a further down.
The UK economy performed relative weaker than the US last week. Today with little news to back any movement, I am expecting the GU to move side.
The price range is confined by daily EMA21/EMA55 as the resistance and daily EMA100 as the support. The price is respectively at 1.6600 and 1.652.
From the hour chart, it is around 1.6585 (EMA100) and 1.6560. Take small profits in either direction and enter trade around the resistance and support level.
Is it the end of the down trend? From the daily CCI(14), it has exit the BB(14, 1.2), meaning an end. It now enter a phase of consolidation with a possible of reversal or a further down.
The UK economy performed relative weaker than the US last week. Today with little news to back any movement, I am expecting the GU to move side.
The price range is confined by daily EMA21/EMA55 as the resistance and daily EMA100 as the support. The price is respectively at 1.6600 and 1.652.
From the hour chart, it is around 1.6585 (EMA100) and 1.6560. Take small profits in either direction and enter trade around the resistance and support level.
Friday, April 04, 2014
4 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
4 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
There is only a major news on US non-farm employment change at 2030hrsSGT. Unless the change is significant, else I am expecting the GU to move side way today.
After the UK Service PMI yesterday at 1630hrsSGT, GU went down below the resistance at 1.6600.
Daily CCI continues to point to a down trend. Support at 1.6580 (Daily EMA55), then 1.6530 (Daily EMA100).
Resistance at 1.6615 (1 hour chart EMA200, as well as Fib Retracement). Next level resistance at 1.6650.
Do catch a good sell at resistance line. If doing buy, remember it is down trend so take small profits.
Because in a likely case today that GU is moving side, the price range is 1.6600 and 1.6580, it is possible to trade within this range. But remember to release position before news time in order not to be caught in a wrong position.
There is only a major news on US non-farm employment change at 2030hrsSGT. Unless the change is significant, else I am expecting the GU to move side way today.
After the UK Service PMI yesterday at 1630hrsSGT, GU went down below the resistance at 1.6600.
Daily CCI continues to point to a down trend. Support at 1.6580 (Daily EMA55), then 1.6530 (Daily EMA100).
Resistance at 1.6615 (1 hour chart EMA200, as well as Fib Retracement). Next level resistance at 1.6650.
Do catch a good sell at resistance line. If doing buy, remember it is down trend so take small profits.
Because in a likely case today that GU is moving side, the price range is 1.6600 and 1.6580, it is possible to trade within this range. But remember to release position before news time in order not to be caught in a wrong position.
Thursday, April 03, 2014
3 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
3 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
On Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI is down, on Wednesday Construction PMI is down. Also the US non-farm employment change is positive. Overall the effect is a confirmation that the GU is on a down trend. Technical chart showed the CCI reverse and enter the daily BB(14, 0.9) - a good indicator in sync with the fundamental that GU is down.
Today we have UK service PMI at 1630 hrs SGT. According to forexcrunch which suggest the following
Support at 1.6620-1.6630 and next at 1.6580.
On Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI is down, on Wednesday Construction PMI is down. Also the US non-farm employment change is positive. Overall the effect is a confirmation that the GU is on a down trend. Technical chart showed the CCI reverse and enter the daily BB(14, 0.9) - a good indicator in sync with the fundamental that GU is down.
Today we have UK service PMI at 1630 hrs SGT. According to forexcrunch which suggest the following
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 50.0 to 56.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 56.1 to 60.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 60.0. The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome could prop up the GBP, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: 47.0 to 49.9: A reading below the 50-point level indicates contraction, and could push the pound below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below 47.0: A very weak reading could push see GBP/USD break through a second support level.
Support at 1.6620-1.6630 and next at 1.6580.
Wednesday, April 02, 2014
2 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
2 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
From the daily chart, GU has reached over bought - CCI above 100, the trend reverse and entered BB(14, 1.2) and further cuts BB(14, 0.9). It is a good indicate of a down trend. Further the 1 hour chart saw a dispersion with the EMA21 nows lies between EMA55 and EMA100.
Looking at the news - the Fed is not going to stay put. Ms Yellen mentioned that the US economy is still not on the path of recovery. As such not much effect will come from the US. A speech from BoE governor
Mark Carney, in his roles as chairman of the Financial Stability Board: Financial markets should prepare for higher interest rates Emerging markets have coped relatively well to date, with occasional bouts of turbulence US in early stages of normalization
A first good indication that the UK economy is performing better than US. A second confirmation will comes today at 1400hrs SGT on UK Nationwide HPI - a housing indicator, followed by UK construction PMI at 1630SGT. This will helps or otherwise distort the confirmation of a GU down trend.
Good sell is at the resistance - 1.6645- 1.6650 (Fib retracement from 1-hour chart). If resistance is taken further down at 1.6635 it will be based on the 1-hour chart EMA100. Further up is at 1.6700.
Support is at 1.6615 -20 (1 hour chart EMA200), then 1.6590 (Daily chart EMA21/EMa55). Support will become resistance if broken.
If you buy - take small profits.
From the daily chart, GU has reached over bought - CCI above 100, the trend reverse and entered BB(14, 1.2) and further cuts BB(14, 0.9). It is a good indicate of a down trend. Further the 1 hour chart saw a dispersion with the EMA21 nows lies between EMA55 and EMA100.
Looking at the news - the Fed is not going to stay put. Ms Yellen mentioned that the US economy is still not on the path of recovery. As such not much effect will come from the US. A speech from BoE governor
Mark Carney, in his roles as chairman of the Financial Stability Board: Financial markets should prepare for higher interest rates Emerging markets have coped relatively well to date, with occasional bouts of turbulence US in early stages of normalization
A first good indication that the UK economy is performing better than US. A second confirmation will comes today at 1400hrs SGT on UK Nationwide HPI - a housing indicator, followed by UK construction PMI at 1630SGT. This will helps or otherwise distort the confirmation of a GU down trend.
Good sell is at the resistance - 1.6645- 1.6650 (Fib retracement from 1-hour chart). If resistance is taken further down at 1.6635 it will be based on the 1-hour chart EMA100. Further up is at 1.6700.
Support is at 1.6615 -20 (1 hour chart EMA200), then 1.6590 (Daily chart EMA21/EMa55). Support will become resistance if broken.
If you buy - take small profits.
Tuesday, April 01, 2014
1 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
1 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
GU hit resistance line at 1.6680. This create another resistance at 1.6700 if 1.6680 is breached, based on the daily BB(14,2).
Will the GU goes up further or lower. With Ms Yellen speech, it looks like QE is not going to change much. The US stock market rally.
The news on UK PMI at 1630hrs may affect the direction. The upside has 1.668 to 1.670 while the downside is supported by daily EMA21 at 1.663-1.662. CCI(14) indicate a trend with a potential to swing down. But news does affect direction.
For today, a good sell will be around 1.668 and above (if it is before the news) while a buy at around 1.663 to 1.662 is good. Again as CCI(14) is in a no trend - take small profit.
At current and for the whole morning, price is confine by BB(14, 1.8) using a 15min chart. Wait and see the reaction after the first breakout candle, before entering trade.
GU hit resistance line at 1.6680. This create another resistance at 1.6700 if 1.6680 is breached, based on the daily BB(14,2).
Will the GU goes up further or lower. With Ms Yellen speech, it looks like QE is not going to change much. The US stock market rally.
The news on UK PMI at 1630hrs may affect the direction. The upside has 1.668 to 1.670 while the downside is supported by daily EMA21 at 1.663-1.662. CCI(14) indicate a trend with a potential to swing down. But news does affect direction.
For today, a good sell will be around 1.668 and above (if it is before the news) while a buy at around 1.663 to 1.662 is good. Again as CCI(14) is in a no trend - take small profit.
At current and for the whole morning, price is confine by BB(14, 1.8) using a 15min chart. Wait and see the reaction after the first breakout candle, before entering trade.
Monday, March 31, 2014
31 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
31 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
A quick view on the daily chart shows that the up trend of the GU (pound) has plateaued. Will the trend reverse or continue its up trend?
This week, starting on Monday, Ms Yellen is speaking tonight. The message probably has effect on how the intention to raise rates is confirmed by the actual ground data that the US economy is doing well or otherwise. We have unemployment claims on Thursday and unemployment rates on Friday.
What will the EU and UK followed the actions of the Fed? Thursday we have the EU bid rates, ECB conferences.
Today, accordingly to the daily EMA21 which set the support at 1.6600 and 1.6685 the resistance (daily BB(14, 2) ). CCI(14) has flatten - so in a likely case the price will move side in a range of 1.6620 (1 hour chart EMA21) and 1.6660 or otherwise within the support and resistance. So it will be a good to trade buying around 1.660 and 1.6620 and take small profits, abandoning buy position if price goes below 1.6580. Likewise a sell within 1.6650 and 1.6670 and take small profits, abandoning sell position when price goes above 1.6685.
Caution: watch out for news announcement and wait to see if there is disruption of trend above or below the daily support or resistance.
A quick view on the daily chart shows that the up trend of the GU (pound) has plateaued. Will the trend reverse or continue its up trend?
This week, starting on Monday, Ms Yellen is speaking tonight. The message probably has effect on how the intention to raise rates is confirmed by the actual ground data that the US economy is doing well or otherwise. We have unemployment claims on Thursday and unemployment rates on Friday.
What will the EU and UK followed the actions of the Fed? Thursday we have the EU bid rates, ECB conferences.
Today, accordingly to the daily EMA21 which set the support at 1.6600 and 1.6685 the resistance (daily BB(14, 2) ). CCI(14) has flatten - so in a likely case the price will move side in a range of 1.6620 (1 hour chart EMA21) and 1.6660 or otherwise within the support and resistance. So it will be a good to trade buying around 1.660 and 1.6620 and take small profits, abandoning buy position if price goes below 1.6580. Likewise a sell within 1.6650 and 1.6670 and take small profits, abandoning sell position when price goes above 1.6685.
Caution: watch out for news announcement and wait to see if there is disruption of trend above or below the daily support or resistance.
Friday, March 28, 2014
28 Mar 2014; Trading GBPUSD
28 Mar 2014; Trading GBPUSD
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.com and http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.com and http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
28 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
28 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
As mentioned in last week post, the pound is going for a uptrend. It starts to reverse at 1.6460 and has hit a high at 1.6650. The indicator that helps predict this is the daily CCI(14) coupled with two BB around it with 0.9 and 1.2. An oversold occur and when the CCI hits the first BB band, it is a good buy till the CCI exit the top most BB and the CCI gradient reverse (which has yet to).
The first buy was on the 14 Mar around the price of 1.6620 (a quarter of my available margin) and a second buy on 24 Mar around 1.6480.
I can still wait for the reverse signal, but as it is nearing the end of the month, the opportunity came to close the first buy at 1.6642 and half of the second buy at 1.6600. I am leaving the rest for the reverse signal or till the last Friday of the month which is today.
It is a 2 weeks of roller coaster. The first was Ms Yellen speech and indication that the Fed rates will rises on the 20 Mar. This brought the pound down. It was followed by a series of better to do US unemployment claims but contradicted US homes sales . So it gives ground to continue to support a buy.
The week 23 Mar open with the UK CPI maintain low at 1.7%. The boost came from the UK retail data which indicate a good confidence than expected.
Today, we have one big news on the UK current money supply at 1730hrs SGT. It is directly linked to currency demand and is expected to continue a rising trend in surplus which indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in UK.
As such it is still a good buy, but because it is nearing the end of the uptrend (CCI is out of the BB) a reversal is possible. Using Fib retracement, the support is at 1.6575 (50%) which is also the daily EMA21 and EMA55 (merging two lines indicating strong support). As such a good buy region.
On the sell side, resistance is at around 1.6680/ 1.6700, the half way between Fib Retracement.
As mentioned in last week post, the pound is going for a uptrend. It starts to reverse at 1.6460 and has hit a high at 1.6650. The indicator that helps predict this is the daily CCI(14) coupled with two BB around it with 0.9 and 1.2. An oversold occur and when the CCI hits the first BB band, it is a good buy till the CCI exit the top most BB and the CCI gradient reverse (which has yet to).
The first buy was on the 14 Mar around the price of 1.6620 (a quarter of my available margin) and a second buy on 24 Mar around 1.6480.
I can still wait for the reverse signal, but as it is nearing the end of the month, the opportunity came to close the first buy at 1.6642 and half of the second buy at 1.6600. I am leaving the rest for the reverse signal or till the last Friday of the month which is today.
It is a 2 weeks of roller coaster. The first was Ms Yellen speech and indication that the Fed rates will rises on the 20 Mar. This brought the pound down. It was followed by a series of better to do US unemployment claims but contradicted US homes sales . So it gives ground to continue to support a buy.
The week 23 Mar open with the UK CPI maintain low at 1.7%. The boost came from the UK retail data which indicate a good confidence than expected.
Today, we have one big news on the UK current money supply at 1730hrs SGT. It is directly linked to currency demand and is expected to continue a rising trend in surplus which indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in UK.
As such it is still a good buy, but because it is nearing the end of the uptrend (CCI is out of the BB) a reversal is possible. Using Fib retracement, the support is at 1.6575 (50%) which is also the daily EMA21 and EMA55 (merging two lines indicating strong support). As such a good buy region.
On the sell side, resistance is at around 1.6680/ 1.6700, the half way between Fib Retracement.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
20 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
20 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
From last night FOMC, Janet Yellen set the tone for a time period of 6 months after the bond buying program, first half of 2015. The effect of an intended interest rate raise imply a better performing economy. The Fed has been buying back the bonds it issue after 2008 or what it called qualitative easing. Rates has been kept at zero, but stubbornly, the unemployment indicator has not been going done.
The words by Yellen sent the pound a big swing downwards - an indication of a USD strengthening for an implied better to come US economy. Is is going to be short lived before the pound rebound again?
UK economy is doing well, so if the expectation of the UK economy performing better, the pound will rebound.
From the technical, the pound is support by its daily EMA100, down from EMA55 after last night Fed speech. Support at EMA55 at 1.660 is breached and now support is at 1.6500.
Looking at the CCI(14) on the daily basis, the trend is upward. In fact the pound has been over bought. The indicator which is used to buy or sell in the longer term, first indicate a buy at last Friday at price 1.6650. As such if you look at it, it is a good time still to buy, probably around 1.6500 and 1.6530. Resistance is at 1.6600.
Watch out for today US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and existing Homes sales at 2200hrs SGT. This will indicate what is the actual ground effect of the US economy - whether has it really on the road to recovery as the Fed claim so that interest rate should start raising.
From last night FOMC, Janet Yellen set the tone for a time period of 6 months after the bond buying program, first half of 2015. The effect of an intended interest rate raise imply a better performing economy. The Fed has been buying back the bonds it issue after 2008 or what it called qualitative easing. Rates has been kept at zero, but stubbornly, the unemployment indicator has not been going done.
The words by Yellen sent the pound a big swing downwards - an indication of a USD strengthening for an implied better to come US economy. Is is going to be short lived before the pound rebound again?
UK economy is doing well, so if the expectation of the UK economy performing better, the pound will rebound.
From the technical, the pound is support by its daily EMA100, down from EMA55 after last night Fed speech. Support at EMA55 at 1.660 is breached and now support is at 1.6500.
Looking at the CCI(14) on the daily basis, the trend is upward. In fact the pound has been over bought. The indicator which is used to buy or sell in the longer term, first indicate a buy at last Friday at price 1.6650. As such if you look at it, it is a good time still to buy, probably around 1.6500 and 1.6530. Resistance is at 1.6600.
Watch out for today US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and existing Homes sales at 2200hrs SGT. This will indicate what is the actual ground effect of the US economy - whether has it really on the road to recovery as the Fed claim so that interest rate should start raising.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
19 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
19 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
A number of important UK news at 1730SGT - UK Claimant paymout, unemployment rate.
The pound has been confined within the daily EMA21 which act as a intermediate resistance at 1.6660.
Daily CCI pointed to a up trend, given that the pound did not break south below the support at daily EMA55 around 1.660.
As such, if the fundamentals are right about the UK economy, then a breakout north would occur. The pound has not break the 1.68 mark, which the EUR did the 1.39. The next resistance is at 1.67
Of course, a break south is possible with the support at 1.652.
A number of important UK news at 1730SGT - UK Claimant paymout, unemployment rate.
The pound has been confined within the daily EMA21 which act as a intermediate resistance at 1.6660.
Daily CCI pointed to a up trend, given that the pound did not break south below the support at daily EMA55 around 1.660.
As such, if the fundamentals are right about the UK economy, then a breakout north would occur. The pound has not break the 1.68 mark, which the EUR did the 1.39. The next resistance is at 1.67
Of course, a break south is possible with the support at 1.652.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
18 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
18 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
It will be a day of uptrend. Price line entered CCI on the daily chart and will continue a trend up.
The EUR make a new high yesterday - indicating a better economic recovery. Will it continue high? Watch the outcome for Ger Economic Sentiment at 1800hrs SGT which will spur momentum for the EUR to go further high or reverse. The pound will follow.
The pound is confined within EMA21 and EMA55 - 1.6600 and 1.6660.
A number of US news in the evening - but like last night - good expected results spike GBP and not USD. It seems that USD the safe haven is slowly being abandon. As such in the current situation, better than expected news on either in UK, EUR or US will spike the GBP.
A good buy will be at the support around 1.660 to 1.662. Ride the up wave.
It will be a day of uptrend. Price line entered CCI on the daily chart and will continue a trend up.
The EUR make a new high yesterday - indicating a better economic recovery. Will it continue high? Watch the outcome for Ger Economic Sentiment at 1800hrs SGT which will spur momentum for the EUR to go further high or reverse. The pound will follow.
The pound is confined within EMA21 and EMA55 - 1.6600 and 1.6660.
A number of US news in the evening - but like last night - good expected results spike GBP and not USD. It seems that USD the safe haven is slowly being abandon. As such in the current situation, better than expected news on either in UK, EUR or US will spike the GBP.
A good buy will be at the support around 1.660 to 1.662. Ride the up wave.
Monday, March 17, 2014
17 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
17 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
Based on indicator - a long in GBP. Daily CCI pointed to an oversold position and it is a good time to buy.
Not looking at an news which can disrupt the price, the purchase for long will be based on support lines - 1.6615 - 1.660.
Any pick in this range and wait for the indicator CCI to reverse.
There are news - with the world watching the outcome of Ukraine situation. That stops the "good" news in Europe recovery to stall.
Resistance is at 1.6650.
Looking at the daily EMA21 and EMA55 - the price tapered. As such, but not expecting it to happen today - a breakout below 1.6580 and a breakout above 1.6670.
Based on indicator - a long in GBP. Daily CCI pointed to an oversold position and it is a good time to buy.
Not looking at an news which can disrupt the price, the purchase for long will be based on support lines - 1.6615 - 1.660.
Any pick in this range and wait for the indicator CCI to reverse.
There are news - with the world watching the outcome of Ukraine situation. That stops the "good" news in Europe recovery to stall.
Resistance is at 1.6650.
Looking at the daily EMA21 and EMA55 - the price tapered. As such, but not expecting it to happen today - a breakout below 1.6580 and a breakout above 1.6670.
Friday, March 14, 2014
14 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
14 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
From my technical charts, the pound is in for a upward trend. Strong support is at 1.660. CCI(14) indicate an oversold. From Oanda order, there is also more long orders below the price.
US market reveal data that shows a recovering economy. The unemployment claims drop more than expected. - But that does not explain why the USD move up against the pound. The release of the US news in fact pull the pound down from the afternoon high of 1.6710 and back to 1.660. - Giving an opportunity to buy.
Now the question is when to enter a good buy to ride the CCI(14) wave before a break out of the BB(14, 1.2). A good suggest price is the support line at 1.660-1.6620.
Depends on the news that comes from US PPI at 2030hrs GST - to buy at a lower price or wait for a break north confirmation.
The next support is at 1.650, resistance at 1.668
From my technical charts, the pound is in for a upward trend. Strong support is at 1.660. CCI(14) indicate an oversold. From Oanda order, there is also more long orders below the price.
US market reveal data that shows a recovering economy. The unemployment claims drop more than expected. - But that does not explain why the USD move up against the pound. The release of the US news in fact pull the pound down from the afternoon high of 1.6710 and back to 1.660. - Giving an opportunity to buy.
Now the question is when to enter a good buy to ride the CCI(14) wave before a break out of the BB(14, 1.2). A good suggest price is the support line at 1.660-1.6620.
Depends on the news that comes from US PPI at 2030hrs GST - to buy at a lower price or wait for a break north confirmation.
The next support is at 1.650, resistance at 1.668
Thursday, March 13, 2014
13 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
13 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
The US market finish side ways. It seems that the market is cautious about the commodity prices which has fallen - that reflect the lower demand from China - a further indication that the Chinese economies is slowing down.
In the UK, the numbers of house buyers slowed.
As such - GBPUSD pair moved side way.
Daily WMA5 entered EMA21 and EMA55 and hover between these lines which acts as resistance and support.
Today, watch out for US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and that may determine and move the pound above or below EMA21 or EMA55.
In the meanwhile, the expectation is a reversal based on CCI(14). There is no indication of reversal yet. As such, the price is expect to hover between 1.665 and 1.658
The US market finish side ways. It seems that the market is cautious about the commodity prices which has fallen - that reflect the lower demand from China - a further indication that the Chinese economies is slowing down.
In the UK, the numbers of house buyers slowed.
As such - GBPUSD pair moved side way.
Daily WMA5 entered EMA21 and EMA55 and hover between these lines which acts as resistance and support.
Today, watch out for US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and that may determine and move the pound above or below EMA21 or EMA55.
In the meanwhile, the expectation is a reversal based on CCI(14). There is no indication of reversal yet. As such, the price is expect to hover between 1.665 and 1.658
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
12 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
12 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
GBPUSD is supported at 1.660, rebound and now hovers between 1.660 and 1.665.
The US stock markets was in red yesterday after weak China news. Commodities were down. But the good news is that US job creation remains good.
Today there will be lack of news. No news from the UK except EUR industrial outputs at 1800hrsSGT.
With the support and resistance clearly ranged from 1.660 and 1.665 by daily EMA21 and EMA55. It will be a good trading within the range if the price is kept within these range. That is a good sell around 1.666 and a good buy around 1.662.
But also expect breakout above these price lines and so, it is good to abandon any open position. The new support and resistance is at 1.650 and 1.673.
Daily CCI(34) shows no indication of a over sold and suggest a continued down trend. Likewise daily CCI(14) shows no clear sign of a up trend reversal.
GBPUSD is supported at 1.660, rebound and now hovers between 1.660 and 1.665.
The US stock markets was in red yesterday after weak China news. Commodities were down. But the good news is that US job creation remains good.
Today there will be lack of news. No news from the UK except EUR industrial outputs at 1800hrsSGT.
With the support and resistance clearly ranged from 1.660 and 1.665 by daily EMA21 and EMA55. It will be a good trading within the range if the price is kept within these range. That is a good sell around 1.666 and a good buy around 1.662.
But also expect breakout above these price lines and so, it is good to abandon any open position. The new support and resistance is at 1.650 and 1.673.
Daily CCI(34) shows no indication of a over sold and suggest a continued down trend. Likewise daily CCI(14) shows no clear sign of a up trend reversal.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
11 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
11 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
US stocks dip due to poor China economic results. Coupled with the poor news from France Industrial production, it all brings the pound back from the high of 1.68 to 1.66. Or simple from the technical point of view, a reason for profit taking after hitting the resistance line.
FOMC in last night speech by Plosser said that the US economy will grow and unemployment rate to decline. The effect is a stronger USD after this morning poorer than expect UK BRC retail sales monitor.
Now the pound is sustained on the support line 1.662 and 1.660 happened to be the daily EMA55. Few major news will determine whether the price hit 1.66 or swing back above EMA21 at 1.667.
The news to watch are UK Inflation and Manufacturing.
At the current price is bounded 1.6635 and 1.6650. Therefore expecting a breakout in either direction. If GBP goes north the resistance is at 1.670 which is also the hourly EMA200 line. Support is at 1.660 and 1.657.
It will be a good sell at 1.670 and expect a retrace back to 1.667. A break south at 1.660 will be a good sell to 1.657 before any buy at 1.657.
Daily CCI(34) continues to be flat with a break south pending and there is no indication of reversal. So there is a possibility the poorer than expected news the afternoon will continue the south-bound direction.
US stocks dip due to poor China economic results. Coupled with the poor news from France Industrial production, it all brings the pound back from the high of 1.68 to 1.66. Or simple from the technical point of view, a reason for profit taking after hitting the resistance line.
FOMC in last night speech by Plosser said that the US economy will grow and unemployment rate to decline. The effect is a stronger USD after this morning poorer than expect UK BRC retail sales monitor.
Now the pound is sustained on the support line 1.662 and 1.660 happened to be the daily EMA55. Few major news will determine whether the price hit 1.66 or swing back above EMA21 at 1.667.
The news to watch are UK Inflation and Manufacturing.
At the current price is bounded 1.6635 and 1.6650. Therefore expecting a breakout in either direction. If GBP goes north the resistance is at 1.670 which is also the hourly EMA200 line. Support is at 1.660 and 1.657.
It will be a good sell at 1.670 and expect a retrace back to 1.667. A break south at 1.660 will be a good sell to 1.657 before any buy at 1.657.
Daily CCI(34) continues to be flat with a break south pending and there is no indication of reversal. So there is a possibility the poorer than expected news the afternoon will continue the south-bound direction.
Monday, March 10, 2014
10 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
10 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
The pound hit the resistance last week at around 1.68. Friday high was 1.6786. It retreat back to 1.672.
Today, I am expecting Europe to continue to post good economic news from the French and Italian government. This will help to maintain EUR as well as the pound to sustain and attempt the resistance line again. The trigger that may affect is at 2215SGT when MPC member speaks about the UK economy.
On the political side, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict with the US getting their hands into the war, it may gave the USD a good bet as a safe haven, as usual for major political and finance happening. It will be a good excuse for those betting on the USD to rise and for those who wants to take profit for the EUR and GBP.
Looking at the technical for clues - resistance line continues to be at 1.68. If a case of breakout occur and is able to sustain a good bet is to buy the pound and take profit at a new high above 1.71- 1.72 region!
CCI(34) shows a great tapering - meaning a pending breakout. The range has been kept at 1.680 and 1.658. As the price is now hovering at 1.673, a good sell will be at 1.677-1.679 and a good buy will be at 1.662 (both at the daily fib support as well as the daily EMA55 line). The mid line to take profit is at 1.668 which happens to be the daily EMA21 line).
If a break out below 1.660, prepare to sell the pound and expect the support line at 1.650.
The pound hit the resistance last week at around 1.68. Friday high was 1.6786. It retreat back to 1.672.
Today, I am expecting Europe to continue to post good economic news from the French and Italian government. This will help to maintain EUR as well as the pound to sustain and attempt the resistance line again. The trigger that may affect is at 2215SGT when MPC member speaks about the UK economy.
On the political side, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict with the US getting their hands into the war, it may gave the USD a good bet as a safe haven, as usual for major political and finance happening. It will be a good excuse for those betting on the USD to rise and for those who wants to take profit for the EUR and GBP.
Looking at the technical for clues - resistance line continues to be at 1.68. If a case of breakout occur and is able to sustain a good bet is to buy the pound and take profit at a new high above 1.71- 1.72 region!
CCI(34) shows a great tapering - meaning a pending breakout. The range has been kept at 1.680 and 1.658. As the price is now hovering at 1.673, a good sell will be at 1.677-1.679 and a good buy will be at 1.662 (both at the daily fib support as well as the daily EMA55 line). The mid line to take profit is at 1.668 which happens to be the daily EMA21 line).
If a break out below 1.660, prepare to sell the pound and expect the support line at 1.650.
Thursday, January 02, 2014
2 Jan 2014; GBPUSD
GBPUSD
A good new year for 2014.
A good year for the pound. Ever since it overrun above 1.56 it has not look back and now it has hit above 1.65! A good 1000 pips run.
2 main reasons for the run - a better than expected and confidence in the US market and the UK market.
The Fed has mentioned to ease quality easing - an indication that the market is on the road of recovery. Market confidence is as hown by Consumer confidence - PMI reach 78!
BoE has indicated a raise of interest rate earlier before 2016 - an indication that the market is doing well. In fact UK has signs of improving consumer confidence as house prices rise and the job market recovers.
So the question is how high and when to enter a buy?
A good new year for 2014.
A good year for the pound. Ever since it overrun above 1.56 it has not look back and now it has hit above 1.65! A good 1000 pips run.
2 main reasons for the run - a better than expected and confidence in the US market and the UK market.
The Fed has mentioned to ease quality easing - an indication that the market is on the road of recovery. Market confidence is as hown by Consumer confidence - PMI reach 78!
BoE has indicated a raise of interest rate earlier before 2016 - an indication that the market is doing well. In fact UK has signs of improving consumer confidence as house prices rise and the job market recovers.
So the question is how high and when to enter a buy?
Friday, May 10, 2013
10 May 2013; Meeting 2% Target
I set for myself a return of just 2% return on investment for my captial.
This will reduce stress and there is no need to monitor the trades all time round the day.
BTW I just met my 2% target.
That's is only 10 days from 1 May, less than 8 days of trade.
Of course you may ask what is 2%? That is for a 200K I am willing to put in as a downpayment for a property -> 4K! (I did not say I have a capital of 200K). A downpayment for a house is 20% and a property cost for a 2B room is about 1 Mil.
I will stop trading now and will just monitor and start to put in trade in 1 June.
This will reduce stress and there is no need to monitor the trades all time round the day.
BTW I just met my 2% target.
That's is only 10 days from 1 May, less than 8 days of trade.
Of course you may ask what is 2%? That is for a 200K I am willing to put in as a downpayment for a property -> 4K! (I did not say I have a capital of 200K). A downpayment for a house is 20% and a property cost for a 2B room is about 1 Mil.
I will stop trading now and will just monitor and start to put in trade in 1 June.
10 May 2013; GBPUSD
GBPUSD
The pound took a dive from EMA200 at 1.556-1.557 to reach EMA100 at 1.543. It hit EMA100 and now is hovering at that level.
The next major news is 1630SGT UK Trade Balance. The news may subject the pound to continue its downward movement, expecting a weaker report. Support is at 1.540 or EMA55.
Of course G7 is meeting and the expectation is that monetary policy will be used. Rates will continue to be kept low, flooding the market with easy money. The stock market has moved up with DOW staying above 15000, so are the Euro markets.
The pound is now at the Fib support line.
CCI is down and has yet to show sign of reversal.
I expectation is for the support at 1.54 with a potential for a short reversal up ward towards 1.55 EMA200.
The pound took a dive from EMA200 at 1.556-1.557 to reach EMA100 at 1.543. It hit EMA100 and now is hovering at that level.
The next major news is 1630SGT UK Trade Balance. The news may subject the pound to continue its downward movement, expecting a weaker report. Support is at 1.540 or EMA55.
Of course G7 is meeting and the expectation is that monetary policy will be used. Rates will continue to be kept low, flooding the market with easy money. The stock market has moved up with DOW staying above 15000, so are the Euro markets.
The pound is now at the Fib support line.
CCI is down and has yet to show sign of reversal.
I expectation is for the support at 1.54 with a potential for a short reversal up ward towards 1.55 EMA200.
Wednesday, May 08, 2013
8 May 2013; GBPUSD
GBPUSD
Dow stay above 15000 with support from better job data. This gives boost to USD.
Pound begin to move down after that piece of news at 2200hrs SGT last night.
The German news on factory orders yesterday rose on sign of recovery but did not much movement to the pound.
Today is still a holiday for the French. Similar German Industrial Production report at 1800SGT is expected to be better, but may not move the pound much.
As much there may not be much news to expect a directional movement for the pound.
Looking at technical, from the daily chart, the pound move past below the CCI34, an indicator of a reversal from yesterday downward movement.
Both Fib and the EMA show similar trend of a reversal.
The Fib support is at 1.5425 similar to the EMA100.
As such, I am expecting a good support at 1.5425 today and a resistance at EMA200 at 1.55.
Dow stay above 15000 with support from better job data. This gives boost to USD.
Pound begin to move down after that piece of news at 2200hrs SGT last night.
The German news on factory orders yesterday rose on sign of recovery but did not much movement to the pound.
Today is still a holiday for the French. Similar German Industrial Production report at 1800SGT is expected to be better, but may not move the pound much.
As much there may not be much news to expect a directional movement for the pound.
Looking at technical, from the daily chart, the pound move past below the CCI34, an indicator of a reversal from yesterday downward movement.
Both Fib and the EMA show similar trend of a reversal.
The Fib support is at 1.5425 similar to the EMA100.
As such, I am expecting a good support at 1.5425 today and a resistance at EMA200 at 1.55.
Tuesday, May 07, 2013
7 May 2013; GBPUSD
GPBUSD
It is going to be a slow week with a lack of news in Europe with the French and German hoildays.
Look out for Thursday UK rates announcement and US Unemployment claims.
Else based on technical and without the influence of news, I am expecting the pound to hover in the range 1.556 and 1.553 for today.
Overall technical calls for a sell. This is also supported by the expectation that UK will maintain rates.
It is going to be a slow week with a lack of news in Europe with the French and German hoildays.
Look out for Thursday UK rates announcement and US Unemployment claims.
Else based on technical and without the influence of news, I am expecting the pound to hover in the range 1.556 and 1.553 for today.
Overall technical calls for a sell. This is also supported by the expectation that UK will maintain rates.
Monday, May 06, 2013
6 May 2013; GBPUSD
GPBUSD
Last week saw a surge in the stocks market. Despite ECB lowering the rates by a quater point, the good news came both in the UK non farm employment data and the US job data.
Looking at the series of news this week - the expectation is for the German to do well.
On the technicals, based on Fib retracement, both pound has retrace from their low at 1.483 to hit the 61.8 level at 1.556. Taking another look at the CCI index, all indicators point to a movement down.
I put the support at 1.54, but of course a breakthrough in news can stir the pound to a new high of 1.576.
Last week saw a surge in the stocks market. Despite ECB lowering the rates by a quater point, the good news came both in the UK non farm employment data and the US job data.
Looking at the series of news this week - the expectation is for the German to do well.
On the technicals, based on Fib retracement, both pound has retrace from their low at 1.483 to hit the 61.8 level at 1.556. Taking another look at the CCI index, all indicators point to a movement down.
I put the support at 1.54, but of course a breakthrough in news can stir the pound to a new high of 1.576.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
18 July 2012
I have waiting for this day. It has been 7 months before the account doubles. Yes I know it may not be at the rate that some has advertised in the papers, like in 3 months or so.
Nevertheless, with a no open trades, I hope to double the account in 6 months, 5 if it is possible.
But to remind myself, I have to stick to the rules for money management:
1. Each trade entered is not more than 10% of the capital
2. The second trade can be made at the next 10% of capital, provide they are at least 150-200 pips apart in the same direction.
3. At most, the open trades made up of a total of 20% the capital.
I have more discipline in using the methods (Korachi and CCI34 with BB; 15minBB14).
Well the take is what to do with the sum: - now I hope to break even the losses in one of the sub-account, hopefully to do it within 2 months.
GBPUSD Analysis for 18 July
The market is expecting China to do something - like injecting simultus. the market is also expecting the Fed reserve to go for another round of QE.
The market still has its loom and gloom. Europe debts probem is not over, US and China market are weak.
The expectation brought some light to the stocks market which when green yesterday. But I am expecting the market to slow or make a reverse to take profits and soften.
The pound make a dip below 1.56 to 1.556. It rebounds back to 1.565.
The trend using CCI34 shows a market reversal soon to take place downward. The daily BB15 bound the pound at the top at 1.572.
At 1.572 (around 1.568), it happens to be the daily EMA100. It may face another resistance at EMA200 at 1.575. As such the upper bound for pound to climb today is confined at the range 1.568 and 1.575.
Support is at 1.562 between daily EMA55 and EMA21.
Nevertheless, with a no open trades, I hope to double the account in 6 months, 5 if it is possible.
But to remind myself, I have to stick to the rules for money management:
1. Each trade entered is not more than 10% of the capital
2. The second trade can be made at the next 10% of capital, provide they are at least 150-200 pips apart in the same direction.
3. At most, the open trades made up of a total of 20% the capital.
I have more discipline in using the methods (Korachi and CCI34 with BB; 15minBB14).
Well the take is what to do with the sum: - now I hope to break even the losses in one of the sub-account, hopefully to do it within 2 months.
GBPUSD Analysis for 18 July
The market is expecting China to do something - like injecting simultus. the market is also expecting the Fed reserve to go for another round of QE.
The market still has its loom and gloom. Europe debts probem is not over, US and China market are weak.
The expectation brought some light to the stocks market which when green yesterday. But I am expecting the market to slow or make a reverse to take profits and soften.
The pound make a dip below 1.56 to 1.556. It rebounds back to 1.565.
The trend using CCI34 shows a market reversal soon to take place downward. The daily BB15 bound the pound at the top at 1.572.
At 1.572 (around 1.568), it happens to be the daily EMA100. It may face another resistance at EMA200 at 1.575. As such the upper bound for pound to climb today is confined at the range 1.568 and 1.575.
Support is at 1.562 between daily EMA55 and EMA21.
Wednesday, July 04, 2012
4 Jul 2012
The markets jump with the "good" news from the EU summit meeting. Evan as at yesterday, both the Europe and the US market are up.
However, EUR was kep within bound 1.2620 and 1.2570. It show occassion of breaking out in either direction but was contained. Now it is hovering at 1.2590 at Asian Time.
The pound was too confined, with sign of consolidation. The band is 1.5720 and 1.5660. The mean is 1.5680.
What will be the next big news that will swing the pound out of the band? Fed QE?
Looking at the technicals for today sign of movement, the is a potential for pound to gain a high at 1.5760/70 based on 1 day EMA 100 and EMA 200.
CCI is showing sign of going down should pound break 1.562, the next support is at 1.5580.
With only a major news at 1630 on UK service PMI and the US on holiday, I expect the pound to continue to hover at the 1.568 band at EMA55.
As such, a sell at EMA100 and a buy at EMA21 at 1.5715 and 1.5652 will be good with a profit target of 20-30 pips.
However, EUR was kep within bound 1.2620 and 1.2570. It show occassion of breaking out in either direction but was contained. Now it is hovering at 1.2590 at Asian Time.
The pound was too confined, with sign of consolidation. The band is 1.5720 and 1.5660. The mean is 1.5680.
What will be the next big news that will swing the pound out of the band? Fed QE?
Looking at the technicals for today sign of movement, the is a potential for pound to gain a high at 1.5760/70 based on 1 day EMA 100 and EMA 200.
CCI is showing sign of going down should pound break 1.562, the next support is at 1.5580.
With only a major news at 1630 on UK service PMI and the US on holiday, I expect the pound to continue to hover at the 1.568 band at EMA55.
As such, a sell at EMA100 and a buy at EMA21 at 1.5715 and 1.5652 will be good with a profit target of 20-30 pips.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
26 June 2012
26 June 2012
The stocks tumble yesterday, as the world worries as Spain asked for a bank bail out. More fear is on who is next - France?
The Asia market will follow suite after the Europe and US market.
As such, the slump will contiune for GBP/USD. The dowtrend will not reverse so soon with probrable rebound.
Support is at 1.547 which is possible for GBP/USD to reach it today. On the contatary the resistance is at 1.562.
The stocks tumble yesterday, as the world worries as Spain asked for a bank bail out. More fear is on who is next - France?
The Asia market will follow suite after the Europe and US market.
As such, the slump will contiune for GBP/USD. The dowtrend will not reverse so soon with probrable rebound.
Support is at 1.547 which is possible for GBP/USD to reach it today. On the contatary the resistance is at 1.562.
Friday, May 27, 2011
27 May 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
Britain’s pound appreciated to the highest in two weeks versus the dollar after a report showed the U.S. economy grew less than economists forecast.
In the US, Personal Consumption Expenditures Similar to Consumer Price Index measuring changes in prices of consumer supplies and services is expected to reduce by 0.1% to 0.5%, and to 1.8% on the Price Index. Meanwhile the Core Personal Consumption is expected to rise by 1% both here and on the Price Index.
Both news weaken the dollar and strengthen the pound in what is seen as a reversal from the bearish trend for the pound which lasted for 2 weeks.
The pound rebounded from support at 1.608 and spiked towards resistance at 1.636.
On technical analysis, support now lies at 1.636 and next at 1.630. Resistance now stands at 1.646.
With no UK news today and a likely weaker US spending, inflation and housing news, the pound may attempt the resistance line.
CCI continues to be out of the BB lines. There is no sign of reversal, ony signs of the pound being overbought.
Britain’s pound appreciated to the highest in two weeks versus the dollar after a report showed the U.S. economy grew less than economists forecast.
In the US, Personal Consumption Expenditures Similar to Consumer Price Index measuring changes in prices of consumer supplies and services is expected to reduce by 0.1% to 0.5%, and to 1.8% on the Price Index. Meanwhile the Core Personal Consumption is expected to rise by 1% both here and on the Price Index.
Both news weaken the dollar and strengthen the pound in what is seen as a reversal from the bearish trend for the pound which lasted for 2 weeks.
The pound rebounded from support at 1.608 and spiked towards resistance at 1.636.
On technical analysis, support now lies at 1.636 and next at 1.630. Resistance now stands at 1.646.
With no UK news today and a likely weaker US spending, inflation and housing news, the pound may attempt the resistance line.
CCI continues to be out of the BB lines. There is no sign of reversal, ony signs of the pound being overbought.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
26 May 2011
GBP/USD Analysis:
A series of bad news has brought the Euro back to its 1.40 level. The pound follows, but find strong support as exhibited yesterday at 1.608.
There will not be many UK news except for 1 at 1400hrs on housing index. There will be more impactful US news tonight. The dollars has been trading higher.
Support for the pound is at 1.626 and next at 1.620. CCI has move up and break out of all the BB lines. It can indicate a potential spike up before a return to the support.
Resistance is at 1.635. A need to break past this value in order for the pound to achieve higher.
A series of bad news has brought the Euro back to its 1.40 level. The pound follows, but find strong support as exhibited yesterday at 1.608.
There will not be many UK news except for 1 at 1400hrs on housing index. There will be more impactful US news tonight. The dollars has been trading higher.
Support for the pound is at 1.626 and next at 1.620. CCI has move up and break out of all the BB lines. It can indicate a potential spike up before a return to the support.
Resistance is at 1.635. A need to break past this value in order for the pound to achieve higher.
Monday, May 02, 2011
2 May 2011
GBP/USD
Bank holidays.
Don't expect much movement. Or movement to cause any major breakout.
The pound has already hit 1.67 victor the the first resistance. Support is at 1.66 then 1.65.
Without news the price will be ranged within the resistance and support.
Bank holidays.
Don't expect much movement. Or movement to cause any major breakout.
The pound has already hit 1.67 victor the the first resistance. Support is at 1.66 then 1.65.
Without news the price will be ranged within the resistance and support.
Friday, April 29, 2011
29 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
It is a wow yesterday, with how weak the dollars goes. Gold hit $1535, silver hit near $50.
Both Euro and pound made new high. The pound attempt 1.67, putting the support now at 1.66, and with a potential to zoom towards 1.7.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain near a six-month low when the final April numbers are released Friday as rising gas prices continue to weigh on consumers minds and push up inflation expectations
GBP held near a 17-month high versus the USD today, keeping gains as investors placed more bearish bets on the USD after the Fed signaled it was in no hurry to reverse policy. British consumer confidence data fell again, however, GBP/USD held support and is heading higher again.
Support is at 1.66, then 1.646. Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.686 (Fib projection)
CCI indicates a down, meaning a consolidation.
It is a wow yesterday, with how weak the dollars goes. Gold hit $1535, silver hit near $50.
Both Euro and pound made new high. The pound attempt 1.67, putting the support now at 1.66, and with a potential to zoom towards 1.7.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to remain near a six-month low when the final April numbers are released Friday as rising gas prices continue to weigh on consumers minds and push up inflation expectations
GBP held near a 17-month high versus the USD today, keeping gains as investors placed more bearish bets on the USD after the Fed signaled it was in no hurry to reverse policy. British consumer confidence data fell again, however, GBP/USD held support and is heading higher again.
Support is at 1.66, then 1.646. Resistance is at 1.67, then 1.686 (Fib projection)
CCI indicates a down, meaning a consolidation.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
27 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
Look as if a support at 1.645 has prevent any breech down even with the better US economy sentiments on the US New homes sales and US consumer confidence.
Weighing strongly today is the news at 1630 on UK Prelim GDP. The expectation is 0.5% growth and that will push the pound higher, gaining confidence that the UK economy is recovering.
Support at the hour chart EMA200 lies at 1.645/46. With next at daily EMA21 at 1.638/40
Daily CCI 34 is flaten, with overbought occurred and now the CCI has cut the first BB line, an indication of a downward movement.
Pound made high and attempt 1.660. If the news break this high, pound will made towards resistance at 1.70!
Look as if a support at 1.645 has prevent any breech down even with the better US economy sentiments on the US New homes sales and US consumer confidence.
Weighing strongly today is the news at 1630 on UK Prelim GDP. The expectation is 0.5% growth and that will push the pound higher, gaining confidence that the UK economy is recovering.
Support at the hour chart EMA200 lies at 1.645/46. With next at daily EMA21 at 1.638/40
Daily CCI 34 is flaten, with overbought occurred and now the CCI has cut the first BB line, an indication of a downward movement.
Pound made high and attempt 1.660. If the news break this high, pound will made towards resistance at 1.70!
Monday, April 25, 2011
24 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
Banks on hoilday, so don't expect much movement today.
Last week, the pound cleared the resistance above 1.64 and strongly above and away from resistance at 1.646. In fact it attempt 1.66, before returning to 1.65.
Dollars has been weaken as seen by more quality easing from the Fed. Commodities ramp up because of the weal dollars with gold and silver reaching record high. Gold hit $1500!
Banks on hoilday, so don't expect much movement today.
Last week, the pound cleared the resistance above 1.64 and strongly above and away from resistance at 1.646. In fact it attempt 1.66, before returning to 1.65.
Dollars has been weaken as seen by more quality easing from the Fed. Commodities ramp up because of the weal dollars with gold and silver reaching record high. Gold hit $1500!
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
20 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
After the attempt at support at 1.618 and 1.623, the pound rebound and maintain price at 1.627 and now 1.632.
THe daily CCI is out of the BB lower line, an indication that the down trend has ended. But CCI remain high at above a positive figure of 53. It look as if the support is at 1.627/30 or the daily EMA21.
Today there is 2 major news. One at 1630hrs SGT on UK MPC voting and the other at 2200hrs SGT on US existing home sales.
A change in the MPC voting will trigger the intention to raise interest rates and may cause the pound to go high. Resistance is at 1.64, and if broken, it will be a whole new level with 1.64 as the support.
On the US, Sales of existing homes in the world’s largest economy is expected to increase at an annualized pace of 5.00M from 4.88M, and the rebound in purchases could spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as growth prospects improve. This move will pull the pound back from 1.64 to support at 1.632/30
A safe way to trade is to sell at resistance and buy at support after reversal at support.
After the attempt at support at 1.618 and 1.623, the pound rebound and maintain price at 1.627 and now 1.632.
THe daily CCI is out of the BB lower line, an indication that the down trend has ended. But CCI remain high at above a positive figure of 53. It look as if the support is at 1.627/30 or the daily EMA21.
Today there is 2 major news. One at 1630hrs SGT on UK MPC voting and the other at 2200hrs SGT on US existing home sales.
A change in the MPC voting will trigger the intention to raise interest rates and may cause the pound to go high. Resistance is at 1.64, and if broken, it will be a whole new level with 1.64 as the support.
On the US, Sales of existing homes in the world’s largest economy is expected to increase at an annualized pace of 5.00M from 4.88M, and the rebound in purchases could spark a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as growth prospects improve. This move will pull the pound back from 1.64 to support at 1.632/30
A safe way to trade is to sell at resistance and buy at support after reversal at support.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
19 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
The market was down, supported at 1.624, before the US news at 2200 and 2230hrs on NAHB Housing Market Index and FOMC rattled the movement up to 1.633, then turned down towards 1.616.
From the CCI, that finished the downside indication, as the CCI has punched out of the lower BB line. Pound hit below 1.623, a strong support for tha last week, attempt to break it, rebound and now this morning stands at 1.625/ 26.
Numerous Europe news in the afternoon. The issue of soverign debts has come back.
Support is at EMA21 at 1.62. EMA55 at 1.610. Resistance at 1.63. then 1.635. Bothe EMA can also be resistance. Expecting some swing between EMA21 and EMA55.
The market was down, supported at 1.624, before the US news at 2200 and 2230hrs on NAHB Housing Market Index and FOMC rattled the movement up to 1.633, then turned down towards 1.616.
From the CCI, that finished the downside indication, as the CCI has punched out of the lower BB line. Pound hit below 1.623, a strong support for tha last week, attempt to break it, rebound and now this morning stands at 1.625/ 26.
Numerous Europe news in the afternoon. The issue of soverign debts has come back.
Support is at EMA21 at 1.62. EMA55 at 1.610. Resistance at 1.63. then 1.635. Bothe EMA can also be resistance. Expecting some swing between EMA21 and EMA55.
Monday, April 18, 2011
18 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
No major news today. So it is all predictive and technicals.
The issues of Europe debts dotted the papers and Bloomberg again. Europe has raised its interest rate and has the intention to move them up. UK MOC has start voting to raise interest rate, but is 3 against 9.
Dollars has been strengthening since last week. Gold move up to above $1480.
Wihout news, today until Wednesday UK MPC voting, all the less than positive news build up, the technicals revealed that the pound is retreating.
CCI on the daily is down. Allow the pound to find support at 1.627 (EMA21 daily) which is may hit this morning and gain next towards 1.620.
Resistance is at 1.634/35.
No major news today. So it is all predictive and technicals.
The issues of Europe debts dotted the papers and Bloomberg again. Europe has raised its interest rate and has the intention to move them up. UK MOC has start voting to raise interest rate, but is 3 against 9.
Dollars has been strengthening since last week. Gold move up to above $1480.
Wihout news, today until Wednesday UK MPC voting, all the less than positive news build up, the technicals revealed that the pound is retreating.
CCI on the daily is down. Allow the pound to find support at 1.627 (EMA21 daily) which is may hit this morning and gain next towards 1.620.
Resistance is at 1.634/35.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
14 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
The performance of the GBP/USD was confined within the range 1.631 and 1.6230. The occassion of news spike the pound up and down but trade within a range.
Only one major news, which is on US unemployment claims and PPI both at 2030hrs SGT. Both are expected to produce a better results for the economy recovery, but the fear of inflation is on. The dollars has been weak against the Eur and the pound in the recent tradings. Eur hit high at 1.45. These means that the GBP/USD pair will continue the range trading, a weak dollars but a stronger US economy.
Looking technically, CCI is in favour for a short. Strong support was witnessed at 1.623. Resistance was at 1.631/32. The hour chart clearly shows a squeeze with all the EMAs forming a resistance at 1.631/32.
From the daily chart, a breakout is possible and that will define new resistance at 1.64. Support if broken at 1.623 will bring the pound lower to 1.617
The performance of the GBP/USD was confined within the range 1.631 and 1.6230. The occassion of news spike the pound up and down but trade within a range.
Only one major news, which is on US unemployment claims and PPI both at 2030hrs SGT. Both are expected to produce a better results for the economy recovery, but the fear of inflation is on. The dollars has been weak against the Eur and the pound in the recent tradings. Eur hit high at 1.45. These means that the GBP/USD pair will continue the range trading, a weak dollars but a stronger US economy.
Looking technically, CCI is in favour for a short. Strong support was witnessed at 1.623. Resistance was at 1.631/32. The hour chart clearly shows a squeeze with all the EMAs forming a resistance at 1.631/32.
From the daily chart, a breakout is possible and that will define new resistance at 1.64. Support if broken at 1.623 will bring the pound lower to 1.617
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
13 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
The news at 1630hrs SGT on UK CPI shift the pound down to support at 1.623. It rebound back to resistance at 1.63 and hit 1.633.
During the US trading session, the pound was squeeze between these 2 lines. It further squeeze between 1.624 and 1.628.
Today the action news come at 1630hrs SGT on UK Claimant Payout. The expectation is that there will be less payout meaning the economy is doing better. US retail sales is at 2030hrs SGT, expecting the retail to do better. As seen one pull and one push, the pound is expected to be ranged or whipsaw.
Golden Sachs dumped commodities yesterday. This cause oil and gold to fall from its high, suggesting a strengthening of the dollars.
Technically, CCI is down. Support at EMA21 at 1.623, then 1.617. Resistance is at 1.628. Breaking this will permit the pound to go towards 1.63/ 1.633. Breaking 1.633 will be a good zoom towards 1.64.
There is a whipsaw news expecation, plus a lot of support and resistances, thus either play with small profits or wait for breakout at 1.620 and 1.635
The news at 1630hrs SGT on UK CPI shift the pound down to support at 1.623. It rebound back to resistance at 1.63 and hit 1.633.
During the US trading session, the pound was squeeze between these 2 lines. It further squeeze between 1.624 and 1.628.
Today the action news come at 1630hrs SGT on UK Claimant Payout. The expectation is that there will be less payout meaning the economy is doing better. US retail sales is at 2030hrs SGT, expecting the retail to do better. As seen one pull and one push, the pound is expected to be ranged or whipsaw.
Golden Sachs dumped commodities yesterday. This cause oil and gold to fall from its high, suggesting a strengthening of the dollars.
Technically, CCI is down. Support at EMA21 at 1.623, then 1.617. Resistance is at 1.628. Breaking this will permit the pound to go towards 1.63/ 1.633. Breaking 1.633 will be a good zoom towards 1.64.
There is a whipsaw news expecation, plus a lot of support and resistances, thus either play with small profits or wait for breakout at 1.620 and 1.635
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
12 apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis the range between 1.635 and 1.640 was observed yesterday. But the pound attempt to break both barrier to hit low at 1.630 support and 1.645 resistance. The break happened during US trading hours when it goes below 1.635 towards 1.630. There are conflicting good and bad news for th UK economy. The UK housing is still not picking up and retail sales was not that ideal. On the other side, the USD is also not performing. Looking technically, GBP has cut CCI with an overbought at the first BB line, an indication for a good time to short. If the down trend or a correction is to follow after last week peak at 1.643 and yesterday peak, the support will be at 1.630 then 1.624 at EMA21. On the high side, if 1.64 to 1.645 proves to be the resistance. If that breaks, then it is a sign of a bullish reversal. All short positions should let go. Then potential, we will see 1.640 as the new and strong support.
Monday, April 11, 2011
11 Apr 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
Last week, both the pound and the euro create new high. It seems that the debt problem has covered by what is happening in the mid east. Oil price hit $110 a barrel and indeed gave rise to inflation. But that does not explain the hike in the pound and euro. Basically the dollars has weaken.
My take on the weaken dollar is therefore temporal. The mid east crisis cause oil price and commodities prices to go high. Gold also hit above $1475. As both are related to USD, the USD was speculatively weaken to be taken advantage of.
ECB has raised the interest rate by half a percent point and that gave even more advantage for the Euro to be held against the USD. The pound also follow suite.
On the technical, the daily CCI has hit an overbought stage. It has not cut the BB to be a signal readied to short. Resistance is at 1.640 and 1.645 after it has breach the 1.640 psychological mark.
On the down side support is at 1.630 and 1.624.
Little news today, so I am expecting the pound to range between 1.640 and 1.635. If a break occur, expect the resistance and the support to be targeted.
Last week, both the pound and the euro create new high. It seems that the debt problem has covered by what is happening in the mid east. Oil price hit $110 a barrel and indeed gave rise to inflation. But that does not explain the hike in the pound and euro. Basically the dollars has weaken.
My take on the weaken dollar is therefore temporal. The mid east crisis cause oil price and commodities prices to go high. Gold also hit above $1475. As both are related to USD, the USD was speculatively weaken to be taken advantage of.
ECB has raised the interest rate by half a percent point and that gave even more advantage for the Euro to be held against the USD. The pound also follow suite.
On the technical, the daily CCI has hit an overbought stage. It has not cut the BB to be a signal readied to short. Resistance is at 1.640 and 1.645 after it has breach the 1.640 psychological mark.
On the down side support is at 1.630 and 1.624.
Little news today, so I am expecting the pound to range between 1.640 and 1.635. If a break occur, expect the resistance and the support to be targeted.
Friday, March 25, 2011
26 Mar 2011
GBP/USD Analysis
Going straight to the technicals, a squeeze has began, keeping the pound within the range 1.6130 and 1.609.
The Eur seems not affected by what is happening in Mid east and Japan. Seems like the debt issue is also forgotten. the pound may take cue from the Euro, meaning that since the Euro has maintain a support and stay above 1.41 and 1.42, the pound will also stay at support at above 1.6 or 1.61
The news that is reported recently in this week seems to support the rally for the pound to rebound.
Looking in details at the CCI34, the trend is for the pound to go lower, but is nearing the end. The immediate support is at 1.609, then 1.600.
With 2 days of down, the pound may rebound before going to the support.
Going straight to the technicals, a squeeze has began, keeping the pound within the range 1.6130 and 1.609.
The Eur seems not affected by what is happening in Mid east and Japan. Seems like the debt issue is also forgotten. the pound may take cue from the Euro, meaning that since the Euro has maintain a support and stay above 1.41 and 1.42, the pound will also stay at support at above 1.6 or 1.61
The news that is reported recently in this week seems to support the rally for the pound to rebound.
Looking in details at the CCI34, the trend is for the pound to go lower, but is nearing the end. The immediate support is at 1.609, then 1.600.
With 2 days of down, the pound may rebound before going to the support.
Monday, October 11, 2010
11 Oct 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
After last week of bull run, with equity market having the extra dollars to boost run, GBP and Eur both made new highs.
This week, I am expecting some consolidation.
Pound has start running up from 1.535 to 1.620. The retracement is expected at support 1.586, then 1.576.
Alternatively, Pound may attempt 1.60.
With the lack of news, I am expecting the price range between 1.6 and 1.586.
After last week of bull run, with equity market having the extra dollars to boost run, GBP and Eur both made new highs.
This week, I am expecting some consolidation.
Pound has start running up from 1.535 to 1.620. The retracement is expected at support 1.586, then 1.576.
Alternatively, Pound may attempt 1.60.
With the lack of news, I am expecting the price range between 1.6 and 1.586.
Wednesday, October 06, 2010
6 Oct 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
As gold made new high, stock climb, Euro and GBP made new high, when will the USD retreat?
BOJ cut rate and that trigger all new hopes of easing pressure, causing most currencies to appreciate against the yen. So it is now waiting for Fed action, before USD take another low or reverese its direction.
Day chart show a potential break up towards 1.60 if resistance at 1.594 is broken. An attempt of 1.594 to 1.600 look possible today.
However if USD were to take a breather, a possible retrace is to 1.589, then to 1.587, with support at 1.583.
As gold made new high, stock climb, Euro and GBP made new high, when will the USD retreat?
BOJ cut rate and that trigger all new hopes of easing pressure, causing most currencies to appreciate against the yen. So it is now waiting for Fed action, before USD take another low or reverese its direction.
Day chart show a potential break up towards 1.60 if resistance at 1.594 is broken. An attempt of 1.594 to 1.600 look possible today.
However if USD were to take a breather, a possible retrace is to 1.589, then to 1.587, with support at 1.583.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
5 Oct 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The first news in the morning was BOJ trying to reduce pressure on appreciating yen. Dow retreated before earnings report, probably soften by speech from Wen Jiabao. Woes from europe return.
These fundamental reports only add to confrim the bearish movement of the GBP. Though it shot high because of better than expected PMI report yesterday, together with the Euro, GBP has retreated this morning.
GBP is still ranged between 1.574 and 1.59. As such trade within range.
The first news in the morning was BOJ trying to reduce pressure on appreciating yen. Dow retreated before earnings report, probably soften by speech from Wen Jiabao. Woes from europe return.
These fundamental reports only add to confrim the bearish movement of the GBP. Though it shot high because of better than expected PMI report yesterday, together with the Euro, GBP has retreated this morning.
GBP is still ranged between 1.574 and 1.59. As such trade within range.
Monday, October 04, 2010
4 Oct 2010
GBP/USD analysis:
Not much of news.
Will the Europe terrorist treat has any impact on the market. Asia market continue to make runs with better China economic data.
The pound now began its squeezed between trading range of 1.59 and 1.74. After it failed to break 1.59 and break below 1.74, these two lines become the natural resistance and support lines.
Euro made a dip this morning. My expectation is for the pound to go low and continued towards the support line. CCI support this decisions.
Not much of news.
Will the Europe terrorist treat has any impact on the market. Asia market continue to make runs with better China economic data.
The pound now began its squeezed between trading range of 1.59 and 1.74. After it failed to break 1.59 and break below 1.74, these two lines become the natural resistance and support lines.
Euro made a dip this morning. My expectation is for the pound to go low and continued towards the support line. CCI support this decisions.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
29 Sep 2010
GBPUSD Analysis:
As at this morning, a big squeeze appears on the 15min chart.
Both directions are possible for a break out. Looking at the 1 hour chart, a break up is at 1.582/3 target to reach short term resistance at 1.585, then 1.5900.
The other is for GBP to break downwards at 1.578, towards 1.575/74 region. Short term support at 1.567/68 region.
The issue of debt seems to be coming back, together with "economy going for a second recession".
As at this morning, a big squeeze appears on the 15min chart.
Both directions are possible for a break out. Looking at the 1 hour chart, a break up is at 1.582/3 target to reach short term resistance at 1.585, then 1.5900.
The other is for GBP to break downwards at 1.578, towards 1.575/74 region. Short term support at 1.567/68 region.
The issue of debt seems to be coming back, together with "economy going for a second recession".
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
28 Sep 2010
GBPUSD analysis:
A number of news this week.
GBP has made new high and now consolidate around 1.580/84.
Upside potential is towards 1.600, while a downside consoldidate around 1.574 and 1.567 region.
On a daily technical chart, CCI has cut the upper BB, meaning that a down is there.
As for me waiting for a sell entry around 1.583/4
A number of news this week.
GBP has made new high and now consolidate around 1.580/84.
Upside potential is towards 1.600, while a downside consoldidate around 1.574 and 1.567 region.
On a daily technical chart, CCI has cut the upper BB, meaning that a down is there.
As for me waiting for a sell entry around 1.583/4
Monday, September 27, 2010
27 Sep 2010
GBP/USD analysis:
Now that GBP had hit new high, attempted its fib retracement at 1.59. It may consolidate towards 1.60.
Of course, on the hind side, it may return to 1.572 as the support.
Likewise, Eur has made new high.
My expectation is for the market to consolidate lower, before attempt to hit 1.60.
Now that GBP had hit new high, attempted its fib retracement at 1.59. It may consolidate towards 1.60.
Of course, on the hind side, it may return to 1.572 as the support.
Likewise, Eur has made new high.
My expectation is for the market to consolidate lower, before attempt to hit 1.60.
Friday, September 24, 2010
24 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
At one point, GBP hit a 1.5742, meaning the first attempt to breech the 1.574 resistance line. It also means next a consolidation ebfore the pound jump next to clear 1.574 to 1.59/1.6 level.
In today expectation, after a weak European job data, the market has resettled this morning at EMA21 level at 1.568/67 level, down from the peak 1.574.
The Eur has also peak and consolidate.
Support for the pound is at 1 hour retracement level at 1.5662/60 level. The long term up trend potential is there for the pound to jump back to 1.570 level.
At one point, GBP hit a 1.5742, meaning the first attempt to breech the 1.574 resistance line. It also means next a consolidation ebfore the pound jump next to clear 1.574 to 1.59/1.6 level.
In today expectation, after a weak European job data, the market has resettled this morning at EMA21 level at 1.568/67 level, down from the peak 1.574.
The Eur has also peak and consolidate.
Support for the pound is at 1 hour retracement level at 1.5662/60 level. The long term up trend potential is there for the pound to jump back to 1.570 level.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
22 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
Eur shot up this morning making a new high. Dow has started to consolidate after the last few days of up.
The pound follow the Eur to give a jump up this morning. It hit the fib retracement line (day chart) at 1.564. Resistance at 1.574, which means that GBP will test it again. On the hind side, GBP may fall back to the support at 1.556/54.
With the profit-taking in mind, plus the weak support of the US Data, I expectation is for the GBP to consolidate lower first before moving higher.
Eur shot up this morning making a new high. Dow has started to consolidate after the last few days of up.
The pound follow the Eur to give a jump up this morning. It hit the fib retracement line (day chart) at 1.564. Resistance at 1.574, which means that GBP will test it again. On the hind side, GBP may fall back to the support at 1.556/54.
With the profit-taking in mind, plus the weak support of the US Data, I expectation is for the GBP to consolidate lower first before moving higher.
Friday, September 17, 2010
17 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
Pound hit resistance at Fib retracement line at 1.564/65. If it break this line , the next level it will go is 1.573.
However, it look like some consolidation, forming a double peak at 1.564, meaning that it may retrace to 1.556/57.
Eur went high yesterday at 1.312 and therefore I expect some consolidation before any movement up. Likewise conclusion for the pound.
Equtities market has been on the run up and therefore likewise need some profit taking.
Pound hit resistance at Fib retracement line at 1.564/65. If it break this line , the next level it will go is 1.573.
However, it look like some consolidation, forming a double peak at 1.564, meaning that it may retrace to 1.556/57.
Eur went high yesterday at 1.312 and therefore I expect some consolidation before any movement up. Likewise conclusion for the pound.
Equtities market has been on the run up and therefore likewise need some profit taking.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
16 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound did a break out of 1.550!
It attempted 1.560 and now at price above 1.562. Support nows render at 1.554/1.555.
Using Fib retracement, the first resistance has now becomes the support at 1.555, the next resistance is at 1.565, then 1.573.
The pound hit 1.565 yesterday and if it continues to break 1.565, 1.673 is the next target.
Market has been on a good sentiments run, with US Dow making good run. EUR has also been a high, hitting 1.30.
The pound did a break out of 1.550!
It attempted 1.560 and now at price above 1.562. Support nows render at 1.554/1.555.
Using Fib retracement, the first resistance has now becomes the support at 1.555, the next resistance is at 1.565, then 1.573.
The pound hit 1.565 yesterday and if it continues to break 1.565, 1.673 is the next target.
Market has been on a good sentiments run, with US Dow making good run. EUR has also been a high, hitting 1.30.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
14 sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The squeeze has not ended. Price still range within 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Again it look like a buying spree for the equities market.
Wait.
The squeeze has not ended. Price still range within 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Again it look like a buying spree for the equities market.
Wait.
Monday, September 13, 2010
13 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
A good morning up movement.
Still trading in price range of 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Waiting for the break in either direction, which target at 1.566 or 1.520.
Bad sentiments from Europe seems to be gone and the market is again picking up. USD is weak on trading and it gives the GBP a possible run up.
A good morning up movement.
Still trading in price range of 1.532/30 and 1.548/1.550.
Waiting for the break in either direction, which target at 1.566 or 1.520.
Bad sentiments from Europe seems to be gone and the market is again picking up. USD is weak on trading and it gives the GBP a possible run up.
Friday, September 10, 2010
10 Sep 2010
GBPUSD Analysis:
It seemed that concerns over Europe debts was gone.
The market move up, DOw and the rest was up.
It a big move yesterday, the pound swing from a high of 1.548 to 1.538, then back to 1.548, now it has move down near 1.540. GBPUSD has been undecisive.
From the daily chart, price continue to squeeze.. It has not break out of 1.55 and 1.53 range.
Do a wait an see, today is Friday. Wait for a break out.
But if you were to trade, trade cautiously and buy at near 1.538 and sell at near 1.548. Be patient.
It seemed that concerns over Europe debts was gone.
The market move up, DOw and the rest was up.
It a big move yesterday, the pound swing from a high of 1.548 to 1.538, then back to 1.548, now it has move down near 1.540. GBPUSD has been undecisive.
From the daily chart, price continue to squeeze.. It has not break out of 1.55 and 1.53 range.
Do a wait an see, today is Friday. Wait for a break out.
But if you were to trade, trade cautiously and buy at near 1.538 and sell at near 1.548. Be patient.
Thursday, September 09, 2010
9 Sep 2010
GBP/USD analysis:
The equities market still pose a positive direction. Dow went up again, support above 10000.
It look like some bad news are coming out to dampen the EUR. But EUR still look good and well supported at 1.26/7.
Pound attempted a break out up yesterday, but retreat at 1.552. It is still struggling at price range of 1.550 and 1.530.
A break at 1.554 will trigger the pound to hit 1.57, while a break below 1.53 will see the pound go to 1.51.
For today, catch small profits within the range 1.538 and 1.548.
The equities market still pose a positive direction. Dow went up again, support above 10000.
It look like some bad news are coming out to dampen the EUR. But EUR still look good and well supported at 1.26/7.
Pound attempted a break out up yesterday, but retreat at 1.552. It is still struggling at price range of 1.550 and 1.530.
A break at 1.554 will trigger the pound to hit 1.57, while a break below 1.53 will see the pound go to 1.51.
For today, catch small profits within the range 1.538 and 1.548.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
8 Sep 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The global economy has been on a roller coaster. Dow has been up above 10000, well supported, but last night make a dip of -100 points.
Likewise, the USD has been following the strength of the US economy and sentiments.
There has been a price squeeze on the pound. It is now touching the support on the daily EMA200 and EMA100 at 1.530. Will it go up or down?
If it break down below 1.530/1.529, the trend set will be a down and we will see pound heading lower towards 1.52 then 1.504.
Of course, if support is strong, pound will rebound and expect resistance at 1.545/1.548.
Pound has been following the EUR?USD, which is also supported at 1.267/63.
The global economy has been on a roller coaster. Dow has been up above 10000, well supported, but last night make a dip of -100 points.
Likewise, the USD has been following the strength of the US economy and sentiments.
There has been a price squeeze on the pound. It is now touching the support on the daily EMA200 and EMA100 at 1.530. Will it go up or down?
If it break down below 1.530/1.529, the trend set will be a down and we will see pound heading lower towards 1.52 then 1.504.
Of course, if support is strong, pound will rebound and expect resistance at 1.545/1.548.
Pound has been following the EUR?USD, which is also supported at 1.267/63.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
11 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The British economy is still growing despite a surge of disappointing economic data. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that GDP grew by 0.3 per cent between December and February, compared with the preceding three-month period.
If the economy maintains momentum this month, economic growth for the first quarter of the year would match GDP in the final quarter of 2009.
But NIESR said that although the recession was over, the country would not rebuild total economic output to the levels seen before the slowdown for another two years, leaving the country in "a period of depression" until then.
Containerized trade volumes in and out of the U.S. softened alongside seasonal demand at several major ports in January, but compared to a year ago, broader trends of rebounding exports and stabilizing imports are surfacing, according to port officials.
Overall, it means a shift to the dollars for safety as UK struggles on both ends.
The 1 hour chart shows the WMA5 in between EMA21 and EMA55. A sign of unsure direction contained between 1.4985 and 1.4964. A break in this resistance and support will bring the price to the next level at 1.501 and 1.488.
My expectation: Both Eur and GBP is unsure. Daily chart show formation of doji. Trade and take small profit and ready to let go if direction is against you.
The British economy is still growing despite a surge of disappointing economic data. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that GDP grew by 0.3 per cent between December and February, compared with the preceding three-month period.
If the economy maintains momentum this month, economic growth for the first quarter of the year would match GDP in the final quarter of 2009.
But NIESR said that although the recession was over, the country would not rebuild total economic output to the levels seen before the slowdown for another two years, leaving the country in "a period of depression" until then.
Containerized trade volumes in and out of the U.S. softened alongside seasonal demand at several major ports in January, but compared to a year ago, broader trends of rebounding exports and stabilizing imports are surfacing, according to port officials.
Overall, it means a shift to the dollars for safety as UK struggles on both ends.
The 1 hour chart shows the WMA5 in between EMA21 and EMA55. A sign of unsure direction contained between 1.4985 and 1.4964. A break in this resistance and support will bring the price to the next level at 1.501 and 1.488.
My expectation: Both Eur and GBP is unsure. Daily chart show formation of doji. Trade and take small profit and ready to let go if direction is against you.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
10 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The Euro was down early as traders took a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven recovery in the economy as one of the reasons for the weakness. They are worried that the European Central Bank faces too many upcoming challenges regarding growth and inflation to trigger a reasonable appreciation in the Euro.
We have news today 1730hrs UK Manufacturing Production. Production surprised with a nice rise of 0.9% last month, and is now predicted to get back to slower growth – 0.3%. Note that the Industrial Production figure contains manufacturing (80%) and other sectors, but the manufacturing number is eyed.
A better than expected results may give the pound a boost towards 1.503. The pound has attempt to break EMA21 on the 1 hour chart, but failed. It may attempt today.
If failed, the pound may revert back to support level at 1.49 then 1.48.
My expectation: The pound will be traded in range between 1.48 and 1.50, generally it still show sign of bearish.
The Euro was down early as traders took a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven recovery in the economy as one of the reasons for the weakness. They are worried that the European Central Bank faces too many upcoming challenges regarding growth and inflation to trigger a reasonable appreciation in the Euro.
We have news today 1730hrs UK Manufacturing Production. Production surprised with a nice rise of 0.9% last month, and is now predicted to get back to slower growth – 0.3%. Note that the Industrial Production figure contains manufacturing (80%) and other sectors, but the manufacturing number is eyed.
A better than expected results may give the pound a boost towards 1.503. The pound has attempt to break EMA21 on the 1 hour chart, but failed. It may attempt today.
If failed, the pound may revert back to support level at 1.49 then 1.48.
My expectation: The pound will be traded in range between 1.48 and 1.50, generally it still show sign of bearish.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
9 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
A strong dollar rally came into the mid-session of US trading as traders backed away from higher risk assets. Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the catalyst behind the weakness in the Euro. Merkel said that a Greek bailout is not on the table and pointed toward the no bailout rule in the European Union agreement as the reason behind her comment.
Another reason for the mid-session weakness in the Euro may have been comments from Greek Prime Minister Papadreou who hinted that he’d be willing to turn toward the International Monetary Fund for help if the EU didn’t come through with financial aid. His comments were most likely designed to light a fire under the EU to take action sooner.
The pound was heading towards 1.52, before the rally, dropping the pound by almost a 160 pips.
The British Pound continues to remain the weakest currency because of the poor U.K. economy, the widening budget deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
From the technicals, dispersion in the upwards direction has disappear and now from the 1 hour chart, both WMA5 and EMA21 has gone below EMA100 and EMA55. Even EMA55 is appearing weak and clearing EMA100.
Support is at 1.50/1.49 region. Moving further will be breaking 1.478, going to 1.45 region.
Resistance is at 1.508, ten 1.513.
My expectation: Its a empty news day. The pound may range within 1.500 and 1.508. The only news is at 1730hrs, UK Trade balance. The British deficit rose to 7.3 billion last month, and it’s now expected to drop back to to 6.9. A deficit in trade balance is normal for Britain.
A strong dollar rally came into the mid-session of US trading as traders backed away from higher risk assets. Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the catalyst behind the weakness in the Euro. Merkel said that a Greek bailout is not on the table and pointed toward the no bailout rule in the European Union agreement as the reason behind her comment.
Another reason for the mid-session weakness in the Euro may have been comments from Greek Prime Minister Papadreou who hinted that he’d be willing to turn toward the International Monetary Fund for help if the EU didn’t come through with financial aid. His comments were most likely designed to light a fire under the EU to take action sooner.
The pound was heading towards 1.52, before the rally, dropping the pound by almost a 160 pips.
The British Pound continues to remain the weakest currency because of the poor U.K. economy, the widening budget deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
From the technicals, dispersion in the upwards direction has disappear and now from the 1 hour chart, both WMA5 and EMA21 has gone below EMA100 and EMA55. Even EMA55 is appearing weak and clearing EMA100.
Support is at 1.50/1.49 region. Moving further will be breaking 1.478, going to 1.45 region.
Resistance is at 1.508, ten 1.513.
My expectation: Its a empty news day. The pound may range within 1.500 and 1.508. The only news is at 1730hrs, UK Trade balance. The British deficit rose to 7.3 billion last month, and it’s now expected to drop back to to 6.9. A deficit in trade balance is normal for Britain.
Monday, March 08, 2010
8 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The week end with a surprise recover of the pound back and above 1.515.
Today will be a quiet day with no major European news. SO its all technical.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, showed the pound on a break up above EMA200. However, the daily chart showed a resistance at EMA21 at 1.524.
Euro has too recover from its low of 1.34 to 1.37. The pound will mostly likely make a high towards resistance.
On the down side, support is at 1.514/12 region, before any break down towards 1.507
The week end with a surprise recover of the pound back and above 1.515.
Today will be a quiet day with no major European news. SO its all technical.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, showed the pound on a break up above EMA200. However, the daily chart showed a resistance at EMA21 at 1.524.
Euro has too recover from its low of 1.34 to 1.37. The pound will mostly likely make a high towards resistance.
On the down side, support is at 1.514/12 region, before any break down towards 1.507
Friday, March 05, 2010
5 Mar 2010
GDP/USD Analysis:
The U.S. Dollar was up sharply against all major currencies as investors flocked to safer assets following a poor housing report and concerns about Greece’s ability to shore up its budget deficit. More the most part, it was a quiet trade on Thursday as many big Forex players stood on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
The UK MPC said it was maintaining its stock of asset purchases at £200bn, and held interest rates at 0.5pc . Both decisions were expected.
GBP saw a back off its recovery high at 1.5129 on Thursday, its recovery tone set from the 1.4782 level, its 2010 low continues to be maintained. It fell below 1.506 and went to a yesterday low of 1.503, before recovering back to 1.505.
Yesterday Analysis: The pound did not maintain the price at 1.517 and 1.506. It hit high at 1.513, break 1.506 and dive to 1.503.
Today expectation: A good support is at 1.503, then 1.500/1.4900. It nows has its EMA21 breaking EMA55 in the 1 hour chart. I expected the EMA21 to break down further.
On the high side, resistance is at 1.506, then 1.5100.
If afternoon news at 1730hrs SGT on UK PPI, Britain’s producer prices are expected to calm down after rising by 2% last month (PPI Input). Given the rise in consumer prices, the expected rise of 0.1% in the upcoming decision could be exceeded with a higher number. If that is the case, I am expecting the price to hit support at around 1.503 and rebound to resistance, before yelding gain in the US trading time.
The U.S. Dollar was up sharply against all major currencies as investors flocked to safer assets following a poor housing report and concerns about Greece’s ability to shore up its budget deficit. More the most part, it was a quiet trade on Thursday as many big Forex players stood on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
The UK MPC said it was maintaining its stock of asset purchases at £200bn, and held interest rates at 0.5pc . Both decisions were expected.
GBP saw a back off its recovery high at 1.5129 on Thursday, its recovery tone set from the 1.4782 level, its 2010 low continues to be maintained. It fell below 1.506 and went to a yesterday low of 1.503, before recovering back to 1.505.
Yesterday Analysis: The pound did not maintain the price at 1.517 and 1.506. It hit high at 1.513, break 1.506 and dive to 1.503.
Today expectation: A good support is at 1.503, then 1.500/1.4900. It nows has its EMA21 breaking EMA55 in the 1 hour chart. I expected the EMA21 to break down further.
On the high side, resistance is at 1.506, then 1.5100.
If afternoon news at 1730hrs SGT on UK PPI, Britain’s producer prices are expected to calm down after rising by 2% last month (PPI Input). Given the rise in consumer prices, the expected rise of 0.1% in the upcoming decision could be exceeded with a higher number. If that is the case, I am expecting the price to hit support at around 1.503 and rebound to resistance, before yelding gain in the US trading time.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
4 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound inched a notch up yesterday during US trading hours. Price range was hovering bwtween 1.500 and 1.508, before it break resistance at 1.508 and stayed above it.
Today at 2000hrs SGT, The Bank of England will announce later whether it will raise interest rates, but is expected to keep the cost of borrowing at a record low of 0.5%. The Bank is also expected to say it will not pump any more money into the economy under its quantitative easing (QE) programme, for now at least. Last month, the Bank said it was halting the programme, having spent £200bn to boost the economy. It added the programme may be extended in the future, if needed.
Before at 1700hrs, UK Halifax HPI a leading housing indicator, because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. It is expected to improve from last month result.
Technically, the pound beat EMA55 at the 1 hour chart and managed to stay above it at 1.500/1.502. During US trading hours, EMA21 beat resistance and EMA100. The pound now stays above EMA100 at 1.508.
The Euro on the other hand has get rid of dispersion and look as if it is going bullish. The Euro rose to its highest level since February 17th as shorts covered positions after Greece announced additional budget cuts and tax increases in an attempt to shore up its budget and gain favors from the European Union.
Greece’s new plan to take control of its fiscal problems drew positive comments from Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker who said “Greece’s ambitious program to correct its fiscal imbalances is now credibly on track.”
It look like the pound is set in a bullish tone. Resistance is hampered at EMA200 at 1.517.
A good support is at 1.508/06 region. Felling beyond 1.506, may return the pound to its bearish sentiments and the next support is at 1.500.
Yesterday prediction: Accurate that the pound range within 1.500 and 1.508, before US trading hours to zoom past 1.508 to 1.512, before returning to 1.508.
Today Expectation: Price range within 1.506 and 1.517. Potential to retrace to 1.517 based on Fib on 19 Jan 2010 peak to 1 Mar low.
The pound inched a notch up yesterday during US trading hours. Price range was hovering bwtween 1.500 and 1.508, before it break resistance at 1.508 and stayed above it.
Today at 2000hrs SGT, The Bank of England will announce later whether it will raise interest rates, but is expected to keep the cost of borrowing at a record low of 0.5%. The Bank is also expected to say it will not pump any more money into the economy under its quantitative easing (QE) programme, for now at least. Last month, the Bank said it was halting the programme, having spent £200bn to boost the economy. It added the programme may be extended in the future, if needed.
Before at 1700hrs, UK Halifax HPI a leading housing indicator, because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. It is expected to improve from last month result.
Technically, the pound beat EMA55 at the 1 hour chart and managed to stay above it at 1.500/1.502. During US trading hours, EMA21 beat resistance and EMA100. The pound now stays above EMA100 at 1.508.
The Euro on the other hand has get rid of dispersion and look as if it is going bullish. The Euro rose to its highest level since February 17th as shorts covered positions after Greece announced additional budget cuts and tax increases in an attempt to shore up its budget and gain favors from the European Union.
Greece’s new plan to take control of its fiscal problems drew positive comments from Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker who said “Greece’s ambitious program to correct its fiscal imbalances is now credibly on track.”
It look like the pound is set in a bullish tone. Resistance is hampered at EMA200 at 1.517.
A good support is at 1.508/06 region. Felling beyond 1.506, may return the pound to its bearish sentiments and the next support is at 1.500.
Yesterday prediction: Accurate that the pound range within 1.500 and 1.508, before US trading hours to zoom past 1.508 to 1.512, before returning to 1.508.
Today Expectation: Price range within 1.506 and 1.517. Potential to retrace to 1.517 based on Fib on 19 Jan 2010 peak to 1 Mar low.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
3 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
UK consumer confidence in February rose for the second consecutive month to hit its highest level since January 2008, according to the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey. This news at 0801hrs SGT gave a boost to the pound, raising it above 1.500, hitting high at 1.5048.
Looking at its counterpart, the Euro cleared the 1 hour chart EMA200 and recovered from its low to hit back at 1.365 from 1.343.
Has traders forgotten the Greece problem? Or is this an opportunity for risk taking? Or a major retracement is on the way?
Yesterday analysis: In fact the whole day, the pound has been hovering around 1.485 and 1.495 as expected. The up movement only start this morning.
Today expectation: With UK service PMI release at 1730hrs SGT, the services sector, which includes the financial services sector, has seen improvement, rising above 56 points but then dropping to 54.5 last month. It’s predicted to edge up to 55 points, showing stability.
Potentially, the pound which now hover above EMA21 (1 hour chart), may break EMA55 to meet resistance at 1.508, than 1.519.
Support on the other hand is at 1.487, which breaking this may sent a big C-wave down to 1.43.
Price range may be contain within 1.500 and 1.508, which means that the pound will continue its way up. The decision for any direction will depends on Europe opening or the UK news. The new direction may be set during US opening.
UK consumer confidence in February rose for the second consecutive month to hit its highest level since January 2008, according to the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey. This news at 0801hrs SGT gave a boost to the pound, raising it above 1.500, hitting high at 1.5048.
Looking at its counterpart, the Euro cleared the 1 hour chart EMA200 and recovered from its low to hit back at 1.365 from 1.343.
Has traders forgotten the Greece problem? Or is this an opportunity for risk taking? Or a major retracement is on the way?
Yesterday analysis: In fact the whole day, the pound has been hovering around 1.485 and 1.495 as expected. The up movement only start this morning.
Today expectation: With UK service PMI release at 1730hrs SGT, the services sector, which includes the financial services sector, has seen improvement, rising above 56 points but then dropping to 54.5 last month. It’s predicted to edge up to 55 points, showing stability.
Potentially, the pound which now hover above EMA21 (1 hour chart), may break EMA55 to meet resistance at 1.508, than 1.519.
Support on the other hand is at 1.487, which breaking this may sent a big C-wave down to 1.43.
Price range may be contain within 1.500 and 1.508, which means that the pound will continue its way up. The decision for any direction will depends on Europe opening or the UK news. The new direction may be set during US opening.
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
2 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound fell by almost 300 pips, hitting low at 1.48, before regaining back to 1.500. Now it stand at 1.49 for the first time in nearly a year amid fears that Britain will be left with a weak government unable to cut spending and balance the budget.
Fears that no party would gain an overall Commons majority led to warnings that the pound was “staring into the abyss” and would fall further still.
The new support is 1.452, another 300 pips down. Today, given at 1730 UK Construction PMI, contrary to the prices of homes and PMI in manufacturing, purchasing managers in the construction sector are still pessimistic. The figure is expected to edge up from 48.6 to 48.9 points, still under 50. This may be a trigger point for pound to sink further.
Resistance is at 1.498 then 1.506.
Yesterday expectation: The pound hit and sank below 1.500.
Today expectation: Price range to hover between 1.485 and 1.495, till Europe news are release which may sent the pound further to the next level of support at around 1.47/1.46
The pound fell by almost 300 pips, hitting low at 1.48, before regaining back to 1.500. Now it stand at 1.49 for the first time in nearly a year amid fears that Britain will be left with a weak government unable to cut spending and balance the budget.
Fears that no party would gain an overall Commons majority led to warnings that the pound was “staring into the abyss” and would fall further still.
The new support is 1.452, another 300 pips down. Today, given at 1730 UK Construction PMI, contrary to the prices of homes and PMI in manufacturing, purchasing managers in the construction sector are still pessimistic. The figure is expected to edge up from 48.6 to 48.9 points, still under 50. This may be a trigger point for pound to sink further.
Resistance is at 1.498 then 1.506.
Yesterday expectation: The pound hit and sank below 1.500.
Today expectation: Price range to hover between 1.485 and 1.495, till Europe news are release which may sent the pound further to the next level of support at around 1.47/1.46
Monday, March 01, 2010
1 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
With news at 1730hrs SGT on UK Manufacturing PMI, and 1800hrs SGT on Euro unemployment looming for not better than expected result, it look like the pound is not going anywnere north.
My expectation is foreign exchange markets are likely to keep up the pressure on sterling, until they see the detailed tax and spending plans of whatever government takes power.
Support is at 1.500, with resistance at 1.520, then 1.525. The pound is likely to go south today unless a stronger than expected news push it up to and above 1.525.
With news at 1730hrs SGT on UK Manufacturing PMI, and 1800hrs SGT on Euro unemployment looming for not better than expected result, it look like the pound is not going anywnere north.
My expectation is foreign exchange markets are likely to keep up the pressure on sterling, until they see the detailed tax and spending plans of whatever government takes power.
Support is at 1.500, with resistance at 1.520, then 1.525. The pound is likely to go south today unless a stronger than expected news push it up to and above 1.525.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
27 Feb 2010
GBP/USD
What happen in UK?
There were expectations for an upwards revision to 0.2%, and the outcome was better than expected – 0.3%. GBP/USD rose towards the release, but fell back after it. The move was from 1.5250 to 1.5315 and back down afterwards.
The reason is mostly technical: After breaching the important support line at 1.5350 on Thursday morning, this line turned into a strong line of resistance. As the Pound got close to it, stop orders sent it back down.
This important release wasn’t enough to send it higher. GBP/USD is now trading in a range between 1.5350 and 1.5230. It already went lower – 1.5189. This is another support line.
What happened in US?
There is little evidence that the U.S. economy has recovered from the recession or is going to recover from the recession anytime soon. The support for the recovery viewpoint comes from government statistics that have been highly manipulated. All governments, of course, want to present a rosy picture of their handling of the economy for political reasons and it is much easier to make the numbers better than it is to actually make the economy better. Eventually the public catches on to this game, however. The recent consumer confidence numbers indicate that the American public is no longer buying the public relations story, but is starting to pay more attention to the realities they have to face on a day to day basis.
Yesterday Analysis: "Watch and if possible catch the wave to its next suport or resistance line."
Pound failed to breach resistance at 1.530, so it was a wave down from 1.530 to a low of 1.515
What happen in UK?
There were expectations for an upwards revision to 0.2%, and the outcome was better than expected – 0.3%. GBP/USD rose towards the release, but fell back after it. The move was from 1.5250 to 1.5315 and back down afterwards.
The reason is mostly technical: After breaching the important support line at 1.5350 on Thursday morning, this line turned into a strong line of resistance. As the Pound got close to it, stop orders sent it back down.
This important release wasn’t enough to send it higher. GBP/USD is now trading in a range between 1.5350 and 1.5230. It already went lower – 1.5189. This is another support line.
What happened in US?
There is little evidence that the U.S. economy has recovered from the recession or is going to recover from the recession anytime soon. The support for the recovery viewpoint comes from government statistics that have been highly manipulated. All governments, of course, want to present a rosy picture of their handling of the economy for political reasons and it is much easier to make the numbers better than it is to actually make the economy better. Eventually the public catches on to this game, however. The recent consumer confidence numbers indicate that the American public is no longer buying the public relations story, but is starting to pay more attention to the realities they have to face on a day to day basis.
Yesterday Analysis: "Watch and if possible catch the wave to its next suport or resistance line."
Pound failed to breach resistance at 1.530, so it was a wave down from 1.530 to a low of 1.515
Friday, February 26, 2010
26 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
News from Euro and UK are enough to see why the weakness in these currencies.
In the UK, "London Capital profit falls, not to pay final dividend", Fears mounted Thursday that Britain may not have emerged from recession at the end of 2009 after all, as statistics showed a dramatic fall in business investment in the last three months of the year.
In Euro, EUR/USD has priced in the possibility of the unthinkable: the default of a member of the euro zone.
From the daily chart pound has broken below key support in the 1.5350 price region. It went as low as 1.5200, only to recover back to 1.526 this morning, given the uneasiness about the economy.
Global markets retreated earlier this month because traders were worried about Greece's debt problems. The market's drop early in the week, a rebound and the latest slide signal that investors are waiting for clearer information on the direction of the economy.
Yesterday analysis: Indeed, "I am not expecting the pound to do well today and may test new low at 1.535/30 region.".
Today expectation: Its Friday and everyone will be waiting for some outcome in the Euro zone on Greece. Any news will sent the pound in either direction. There are UK news on Consumer Confidence at 0800 SGT and UK Nationwide HPI at 1500hrs SGT. This are signs of the UK economy.
Support now lies at 1.505 and it is only about 200 pips which is quick possible for pound to test it today.
On the up side, the pound did its first Fib retrecement to 1.526 this morning. The next is at 1.530 (EMA21) and 1.533 (EMA55).
My expectation: Watch and if possible catch the wave to its next suport or resistance line.
News from Euro and UK are enough to see why the weakness in these currencies.
In the UK, "London Capital profit falls, not to pay final dividend", Fears mounted Thursday that Britain may not have emerged from recession at the end of 2009 after all, as statistics showed a dramatic fall in business investment in the last three months of the year.
In Euro, EUR/USD has priced in the possibility of the unthinkable: the default of a member of the euro zone.
From the daily chart pound has broken below key support in the 1.5350 price region. It went as low as 1.5200, only to recover back to 1.526 this morning, given the uneasiness about the economy.
Global markets retreated earlier this month because traders were worried about Greece's debt problems. The market's drop early in the week, a rebound and the latest slide signal that investors are waiting for clearer information on the direction of the economy.
Yesterday analysis: Indeed, "I am not expecting the pound to do well today and may test new low at 1.535/30 region.".
Today expectation: Its Friday and everyone will be waiting for some outcome in the Euro zone on Greece. Any news will sent the pound in either direction. There are UK news on Consumer Confidence at 0800 SGT and UK Nationwide HPI at 1500hrs SGT. This are signs of the UK economy.
Support now lies at 1.505 and it is only about 200 pips which is quick possible for pound to test it today.
On the up side, the pound did its first Fib retrecement to 1.526 this morning. The next is at 1.530 (EMA21) and 1.533 (EMA55).
My expectation: Watch and if possible catch the wave to its next suport or resistance line.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
25 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
With Euro and UK under strikes and walkout, recover of the economy is seriously in question. Added to the woes are reports of stagnant consumer spending and confidence.
Before Fed chairman spoke, pound was hovering between 1.548 and 1.540. The U.S. Dollar regained most of its mid-session loss to finish only slightly worse than Tuesday. Comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke triggered an early session break after he reiterated the Fed’s stance that interest rates would remain low for an “extended period”.
Yesterday Analysis: Indeed, the pound range within 1.540 and 1.548 before US trading. It attempted EMA100 and EMA200 but failed. During US trading, it finally break support at 1.540.
Today expectation: Support at critical level at 1.535 / 1.530. If broken, expect the pound to hit a new low at 1.505!
Of course the resistance is at 1.545/ 1.550 (1 hour chart EMA100 /EMA200 )
The news in the afternooon is not so pleasing to either the Euro or the pound. German Unemployment Change: Published on Thursday at 1655 SGT. After 6 straight months of drop in unemployment, a rise of 6000 people was seen last month. This negative will probably be continued with another rise – 18,000 this time. Yet another weak figure from this big country, which nicely fits into the double-digit European unemployment rate.
At 1700hrs SGT BOE Gov King Speaks. With the economy barely crawling out of recession, a rapid fiscal retrenchment would be treated to a "savage" reaction in foreign exchange markets.With confidence in British policymaking gone, the pound would risk plunging to 1.50 against the dollar.
Therfore, I am not expecting the pound to do well today and may test new low at 1.535/30 region.
With Euro and UK under strikes and walkout, recover of the economy is seriously in question. Added to the woes are reports of stagnant consumer spending and confidence.
Before Fed chairman spoke, pound was hovering between 1.548 and 1.540. The U.S. Dollar regained most of its mid-session loss to finish only slightly worse than Tuesday. Comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke triggered an early session break after he reiterated the Fed’s stance that interest rates would remain low for an “extended period”.
Yesterday Analysis: Indeed, the pound range within 1.540 and 1.548 before US trading. It attempted EMA100 and EMA200 but failed. During US trading, it finally break support at 1.540.
Today expectation: Support at critical level at 1.535 / 1.530. If broken, expect the pound to hit a new low at 1.505!
Of course the resistance is at 1.545/ 1.550 (1 hour chart EMA100 /EMA200 )
The news in the afternooon is not so pleasing to either the Euro or the pound. German Unemployment Change: Published on Thursday at 1655 SGT. After 6 straight months of drop in unemployment, a rise of 6000 people was seen last month. This negative will probably be continued with another rise – 18,000 this time. Yet another weak figure from this big country, which nicely fits into the double-digit European unemployment rate.
At 1700hrs SGT BOE Gov King Speaks. With the economy barely crawling out of recession, a rapid fiscal retrenchment would be treated to a "savage" reaction in foreign exchange markets.With confidence in British policymaking gone, the pound would risk plunging to 1.50 against the dollar.
Therfore, I am not expecting the pound to do well today and may test new low at 1.535/30 region.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
24 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The GBP/USD shedded more than 160 pips as an aftermath of disappointing releases, dragged down by Euro.
The German Ifo Business Climate came in lower than expected and lower than the previous release. With strikes going on by the airlines, recovery may be bogged down.
US CB Consumer Confidence suffered a setback. Lower than expected, lower than the previous release, it caused the Dow to fell more than 100 points.
Today brings more releases to test the fragile sentiments. Featuring releases such as Industrial New Orders for the Euro and New Home Sales for the US. Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to testify too.
Yesterday Accuracy report: Indeed the pound attempt 1.555, it hit high at 1.557, but fell back to 1.54 below the 1.550 support line after setback in news releases.
Today: Support now stands at 1.540, which can easily breach and the next at 1.530, possible if the news releases are less positive.
Resistance is at 1.548, then 1.555.
In a most likely situation, pound will stay within 1.540 and 1.548 before the news releases. General sentiments are bearish.
The GBP/USD shedded more than 160 pips as an aftermath of disappointing releases, dragged down by Euro.
The German Ifo Business Climate came in lower than expected and lower than the previous release. With strikes going on by the airlines, recovery may be bogged down.
US CB Consumer Confidence suffered a setback. Lower than expected, lower than the previous release, it caused the Dow to fell more than 100 points.
Today brings more releases to test the fragile sentiments. Featuring releases such as Industrial New Orders for the Euro and New Home Sales for the US. Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to testify too.
Yesterday Accuracy report: Indeed the pound attempt 1.555, it hit high at 1.557, but fell back to 1.54 below the 1.550 support line after setback in news releases.
Today: Support now stands at 1.540, which can easily breach and the next at 1.530, possible if the news releases are less positive.
Resistance is at 1.548, then 1.555.
In a most likely situation, pound will stay within 1.540 and 1.548 before the news releases. General sentiments are bearish.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
23 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
Yesterday: The pound as predicted keep within trading range of 1.55 and 1.53. It did not go below 1.54 but instead attempt to break 1.552, which is EMA100 on the 1 hour chart.
Today: Both French and Germany are expected to report consumer spending and business climate respectively. Numbers are expected to fall. Greece still doesn’t have a backstop plan and there’s a lack of concrete details coming from Germany and France.
UK MPC is expected to report on inflation. Inflation is up in the UK, however the Bank of England is ignoring this fact on the basis that they believe it to only be temporary. Expect more of this talk and that they will keep rates steady for some time.
There has been no change in the fundamentals. The budget deficit, weak economy and lack of confidence in the Bank of England are still the catalysts behind the weakness in the British Pound.
In the absence of news, the pound did an attempt on EMA100 on the 1 hour chart. It hit high at 1.552 and current WMA5 hovers between EMA100 and EMA55/EMA21.
Support is therefore at 1.548/1.546, while resistance is at 1.550/1.552. If a breakout occur at 1.552, then it will attempt 1.555.
With the news coming in the afternoon, the adverse effect on any negative reports is for the pound to attemp 1.53.
Yesterday: The pound as predicted keep within trading range of 1.55 and 1.53. It did not go below 1.54 but instead attempt to break 1.552, which is EMA100 on the 1 hour chart.
Today: Both French and Germany are expected to report consumer spending and business climate respectively. Numbers are expected to fall. Greece still doesn’t have a backstop plan and there’s a lack of concrete details coming from Germany and France.
UK MPC is expected to report on inflation. Inflation is up in the UK, however the Bank of England is ignoring this fact on the basis that they believe it to only be temporary. Expect more of this talk and that they will keep rates steady for some time.
There has been no change in the fundamentals. The budget deficit, weak economy and lack of confidence in the Bank of England are still the catalysts behind the weakness in the British Pound.
In the absence of news, the pound did an attempt on EMA100 on the 1 hour chart. It hit high at 1.552 and current WMA5 hovers between EMA100 and EMA55/EMA21.
Support is therefore at 1.548/1.546, while resistance is at 1.550/1.552. If a breakout occur at 1.552, then it will attempt 1.555.
With the news coming in the afternoon, the adverse effect on any negative reports is for the pound to attemp 1.53.
Monday, February 22, 2010
22 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The problem with Greece is still at the back of Euro. Asia market has open higher showing signs that traders are taking profits after the Chinese New year break.
Traders are generally cautious. I am expecting pound to keep within support of 1.53 and resistance of 1.55, which saw the pound swing in these range early this morning.
If WMA5 in the 1 hour chart can clear EMA55, potential pound can hit resistance at 1.55, but look as if WMA5 is going to squeeze around EMA21.
UK has some announcement on inflation, which more or less within expecation, so I don't see major cause for movement.
The problem with Greece is still at the back of Euro. Asia market has open higher showing signs that traders are taking profits after the Chinese New year break.
Traders are generally cautious. I am expecting pound to keep within support of 1.53 and resistance of 1.55, which saw the pound swing in these range early this morning.
If WMA5 in the 1 hour chart can clear EMA55, potential pound can hit resistance at 1.55, but look as if WMA5 is going to squeeze around EMA21.
UK has some announcement on inflation, which more or less within expecation, so I don't see major cause for movement.
Saturday, February 20, 2010
20 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Weekly Conclusions
The week end with the pound hitting new low, breaking 2 supports, one at 1.57 and the other at 1.55. It is now supported at 1.53, then 1.50
Friday morning start with a big drop and true to 19 Feb 2010, the pound ranged between 1.55 and 1.53. It hit low at 1.534 and 1.5477.
The week end with the pound hitting new low, breaking 2 supports, one at 1.57 and the other at 1.55. It is now supported at 1.53, then 1.50
Friday morning start with a big drop and true to 19 Feb 2010, the pound ranged between 1.55 and 1.53. It hit low at 1.534 and 1.5477.
Friday, February 19, 2010
19 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
With last night after trading hours annoucement of Fed raising the interest rate by a quater of a percent, the dollars rally against the Euro and the pound.
The pound hit the resistance at 1.58 and broke the support at 1.553. With that the momentum is for the pound to test the next support at 1.536. At noon SGT, the price is 1.5426.
There are a number of afternnon Euro news and will the bear continues, with Greece problem still unsolved?
Some retracement may occurred at support line at 1.536, the price may be ranged within 1.55 and 1.53 for today. Therefore it will be good to short near 1.55 and long near 1.53, taking profits within range.
With last night after trading hours annoucement of Fed raising the interest rate by a quater of a percent, the dollars rally against the Euro and the pound.
The pound hit the resistance at 1.58 and broke the support at 1.553. With that the momentum is for the pound to test the next support at 1.536. At noon SGT, the price is 1.5426.
There are a number of afternnon Euro news and will the bear continues, with Greece problem still unsolved?
Some retracement may occurred at support line at 1.536, the price may be ranged within 1.55 and 1.53 for today. Therefore it will be good to short near 1.55 and long near 1.53, taking profits within range.
Friday, February 12, 2010
12 Feb 2010
GBP/USD
Euro slid as a statement issued by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits. - Bloomberg.
Things are not settled as there are no concrete plan to solve the problem.
Pound will continue to be bounded within 1.57 and 1.58. On the support it hinges on 1.55 and 1.56.
As such a break must occur before the pound take flight in any clear direction. Traders, however are cautious as everyone is waiting for something concrete to happen. As long as there is no concrete solution to the greece problem, it will be a wait and see situation.
UK has not lost its credit rating problem.
It will be good to trade bounce between 1.57 and 1.56 and prepare for relinguish position is a breakout happens at either 1.55 or 1.57.
Euro slid as a statement issued by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits. - Bloomberg.
Things are not settled as there are no concrete plan to solve the problem.
Pound will continue to be bounded within 1.57 and 1.58. On the support it hinges on 1.55 and 1.56.
As such a break must occur before the pound take flight in any clear direction. Traders, however are cautious as everyone is waiting for something concrete to happen. As long as there is no concrete solution to the greece problem, it will be a wait and see situation.
UK has not lost its credit rating problem.
It will be good to trade bounce between 1.57 and 1.56 and prepare for relinguish position is a breakout happens at either 1.55 or 1.57.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
11 Feb 2010
GBP/USD
The movement in Euro affects the pound.
The Euro finished lower as the lack of concrete news regarding the European Union’s plan to guarantee Greece’s debt caused investors to remain nervous and skeptical that a resolution would be reached over the next few days.
The pound hit the 1 hour EMA200 at 1.5765, but gave ground immediately to end the day back in the 1.56 region. Morning trading saw the pound gaining back to the resistance at EMA100 at the 1 hour chart.
Overall, the mood is cautious. Pound has not been able to clear the 1.57 resistance line and the Greece case may result in a big movement down.
Bernanke gave the dollar a boost after hinting that the Fed was gearing to hike interest rates as part of its exit strategy. While most investors have been trying to forecast when the Fed would begin raising the Fed Funds Rate, Bernanke surprised everyone by stating that the Fed may raise the discount rate charged on direct loans to commercial banks. This pressure down the pound during US trading hours.
The daily chart shows a support at 1.555 and a resistance at 1.574, then 1.585.
The movement in Euro affects the pound.
The Euro finished lower as the lack of concrete news regarding the European Union’s plan to guarantee Greece’s debt caused investors to remain nervous and skeptical that a resolution would be reached over the next few days.
The pound hit the 1 hour EMA200 at 1.5765, but gave ground immediately to end the day back in the 1.56 region. Morning trading saw the pound gaining back to the resistance at EMA100 at the 1 hour chart.
Overall, the mood is cautious. Pound has not been able to clear the 1.57 resistance line and the Greece case may result in a big movement down.
Bernanke gave the dollar a boost after hinting that the Fed was gearing to hike interest rates as part of its exit strategy. While most investors have been trying to forecast when the Fed would begin raising the Fed Funds Rate, Bernanke surprised everyone by stating that the Fed may raise the discount rate charged on direct loans to commercial banks. This pressure down the pound during US trading hours.
The daily chart shows a support at 1.555 and a resistance at 1.574, then 1.585.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
10 Feb 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
On Monday, the US Dow fell below 10,000 since 2009. It was after some annoucement that Greece will pull through, that gave some hope yesterday to boost it back to a +150 points.
The Euro and the pound also gain as a result.
However, the pound still has a lot of major resistance to clear below we see any bullish movement. The first is 1.574, then 1.586.
The hind side is that pound has already break the 1.57 support line and it is venerable for a break towards 1.54, the next major support.
There are not any major news supporting that the pound can move up. Most likely it will today for some profit taking.
On Monday, the US Dow fell below 10,000 since 2009. It was after some annoucement that Greece will pull through, that gave some hope yesterday to boost it back to a +150 points.
The Euro and the pound also gain as a result.
However, the pound still has a lot of major resistance to clear below we see any bullish movement. The first is 1.574, then 1.586.
The hind side is that pound has already break the 1.57 support line and it is venerable for a break towards 1.54, the next major support.
There are not any major news supporting that the pound can move up. Most likely it will today for some profit taking.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
4 Feb 2010
GBPUSD Analysis: @1430 SGT
It looked like the dollars is continued to strengthen. Euro has lost its lustre because of what happen in Greece and now Portgual. This affect the pound.
The lastest news on the UK economy is that it has start to grow. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics last week showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final three months of 2009. Now, the pound will braced for the Bank of England to call a halt to its emergency programme of money creation after pumping £200bn into Britain's struggling economy over the past year.
Technically, the pound failed to clear 1.62 last week and this week. It has now fallen back to 1.59 level. It is now supported at 1.58. London market is opening soon in an hour time (based on the time I write this analysis), if it takes the news well, rebound is possible and we can expected the pound to hit back to 1.60.
Watch on the other hand if pound fall below 1.57. A break below that level will see the pound going towards 1.55/54.
Boundary for today at 1.60 and 1.58. The day chart shows that the pound will move within this range until a break out occur. We can therefore trade within this range, but prepare to close long position if pound goes below 1.58 or short position if pound breaks 1.60 today.
It looked like the dollars is continued to strengthen. Euro has lost its lustre because of what happen in Greece and now Portgual. This affect the pound.
The lastest news on the UK economy is that it has start to grow. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics last week showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final three months of 2009. Now, the pound will braced for the Bank of England to call a halt to its emergency programme of money creation after pumping £200bn into Britain's struggling economy over the past year.
Technically, the pound failed to clear 1.62 last week and this week. It has now fallen back to 1.59 level. It is now supported at 1.58. London market is opening soon in an hour time (based on the time I write this analysis), if it takes the news well, rebound is possible and we can expected the pound to hit back to 1.60.
Watch on the other hand if pound fall below 1.57. A break below that level will see the pound going towards 1.55/54.
Boundary for today at 1.60 and 1.58. The day chart shows that the pound will move within this range until a break out occur. We can therefore trade within this range, but prepare to close long position if pound goes below 1.58 or short position if pound breaks 1.60 today.
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
2 Dec 2009
GBP/USD Analysis:
Look like the Dubai crisis is over. The market has return to its bull run again. Stocks are up higher, with Dow gaining more than 126 points. The dollar index continue to slip below 75 to 74.
Fundamental news appear good and gave further strength to other major currencies. Euro, UK and US all have good news, putting the cooncern of the Dubai crisis back.
Today, UK will be expecting better results in Construction PMI at 1730hrs. At 2115, US Non-farm Employment Change is also expected to be better.
Technical indicator CCI show up sign. WMA5 on a daily chart needs only a sail pass EMA55 and EMA21 to gain heights towards 1.67/ 1.674 resistance.
On the support, we have 1.652.
Trade Plan Suggestion: Wait for a break in the 1 hour chart at 1.664, long and TP around 1.67/1.672 region. For conservative trader, long at 1.654/ 56 region and TP at 1.663.
Look like the Dubai crisis is over. The market has return to its bull run again. Stocks are up higher, with Dow gaining more than 126 points. The dollar index continue to slip below 75 to 74.
Fundamental news appear good and gave further strength to other major currencies. Euro, UK and US all have good news, putting the cooncern of the Dubai crisis back.
Today, UK will be expecting better results in Construction PMI at 1730hrs. At 2115, US Non-farm Employment Change is also expected to be better.
Technical indicator CCI show up sign. WMA5 on a daily chart needs only a sail pass EMA55 and EMA21 to gain heights towards 1.67/ 1.674 resistance.
On the support, we have 1.652.
Trade Plan Suggestion: Wait for a break in the 1 hour chart at 1.664, long and TP around 1.67/1.672 region. For conservative trader, long at 1.654/ 56 region and TP at 1.663.
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