10 Jun 2008

Reported at 1400hrs SGT

GY

It has been good yesterday, with GY shooting up as predicted to gain towards price at 210.7.

GY may consolidate a little (normally after a super run), but may continue to head towards EMA200 at 211.4.

A likely scenario is that it consolidate towards support at 209.4, before a rebound towards 210.7, therefore testing the peak. Should it break it, hitting EMA200 is possible. The other support is at 208.5 (EMA55 1 Hour chart)

9 Jun 2008

Reported at 1130hrs SGT
GY
Looking at the daily chart, WMA5 has rebounded off EMA100 and is well supported there. Looking at the last candle on 8 Jun, buyers are coming in resulting in a tail that leaves the price above 207.

CCI look flat, suggesting that the uptrend may not prominent. The market may consolidate for a breakout.

If WMA5 continue in upward trend, I will place the resistance at 208, then 209, then EMA200 (211).

On the reverse, support is found at EMA100 at 206.2, then EMA55 at 205.5

6 Jun 2008

Reported at 1000hrs SGT
GY
Looking at the daily chart. WMA5 has rebound off EMA100/ EMA21. Price is now at 208 and given the morning momentum, and the big price shot up yesterday, the trend will continue but will meet resistance at 209 (peak).

Should GY break this price level, it will head towards EMA200 at 211.5. But since 211.5 is too big for a single day movement, it should stop half way at 210.4

The other possibility is a formation of a doji. A rebound off 209 with price range in between 209 and 207. Looking at the hour chart, first support at EMA21 (207), then EMA200 (206.6)

5 Jun 2008

Reported at 0830hrs SGT
GY
Indeed GY was supported at EMA55 (daily chart) at 205 and the low it went was 204.5.

From the daily chart, looking at the WMA5, it has near EMA21 and even if it is to punch through it will meet EMA55. Therefore GY will continue to be supported at 205 (EMA55) and 204.4 (Fib Retracement).

Looking at the CCI, confirm the weakening down trend.

However, should WMA5 break EMA55, GY will break out south and head towards 203.3 and 202 and that will be a very big candle. GU and EU has been going down because of Obama and GY may absord some such sentiments.

Of course, WMA5 may too rebound off EMA21. In such a case, it will be able hit price at 208, half way mark before 209 (Fib retracement)

4 June 2008

Reported at 0830hrs SGT
GY
A doji was formed.

CCI still show down trend, ut with signs of reversal.

WMA5 still hang above EMA100, while price now is 206.1

A good possibility is for price to gain support at 205.5 (Fib retracement) and 205 at EMA55, before a rebound or a breakout south.

Should a rebound took place, price will be again resisted at 207 (peak), then 209 (peak). But should a breakout occur, prepare to see GY supported at 203.3, then 202 (Fib retracement).

3 Jun 2008

Reported on 0830hrs SGT
GY
Looking at the daily chart.
First WMA5 sandwich between EMA200 and EMA100. It rebouded off 209.4 and headed towards EMA100 for a conolidation.

Price now well supported at EMA21/EMA55 at 205. A more support is that yesterday low tested the Fib retracement line at 204.4 and rebound.

CCI pointed down.

What is the trend? Yesterday was a big drop, though the price was supported well, the WMA5 has still room to move down towards EMA100. As such, GY may continue to hit low at 204.4 and 203.3. A likelihood a formation of a doji, before a sure rebound up.

The 1 hour chart gives a signal of where the resistance is - EMA200 at 207, before 209 (Fib retracement)

2 Jun 2008

Reported at 1200hrs SGT
GY
It hit the resistance at 209 / 209.4 on Friday and look as if a reversal will take place. CCI confirmed the direction.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, in the morning GY went towards EMA200 at 207 and rebound and hit the resistance at EMA100 at 208.3.

A breakout is possible in such a case.
A break north at 208.7 (EMA55 1 hour chart) will made GY in another attempt to beat 209.0.
A break south at 207 will continue the downward trend to support at 206.1 (EMA100 1 day chart).

28 May 2008

Reported at 0900hrs SGT
GY
Looking at the WMA5 and the price from the daily chart. WMA5 is between EMA21 and EMA100, but price is saturated at EMA100 at 206.2.

How will the movement be?

A possible case is that WMA5 will hit EMA100 and that brings the price up to 206.4- 206.8 (based on peak on 22 May and 7 May) before making a reverse. Else it will be a shoot towards EMA200 at 208 (half way point)

Support is at 205.5 (Fib Retracement) and 204.4 (EMA21)

26 May 2008

Reported at 0800hrs
GY
Looking at the daily chart, WMA5 again failed to punch through EMA100 and now hangs in between EMA100 and EMA21/EMA55.

Naturally EMA100 at 205.8 gives the resistance line while both EMA21 and EMA55 hold the support at 204.1

The question is that which direction will it go? GY may take a dip towards EMA21/55 (may hit 203.3 - Fib retracement) before bounce off towards EMA100.

24 May 2008

I was busy lately.
I will too be away for a week, 24-31 May to Yunnan.

I was told that blog may be block in China and as such I will not be able to update.

I brought my computer with me, but the main purpose of this trip is more God related. Pray along with me for a safe trip as well as that God will show me more about Him and what He has intended for me.

19 May 2008

Reported at 1000hrs SGT

GY
Looking at the daily chart.
WMA5 attempt to clear EMA100 again. It was supported at 203.3 (Fib retracement line). Will it be able to punch through?

If it can, it will reach EMA100 at 206.0. But before the Fib Line at 204.4, which is also after EMA21 and EMA55.

On the other, failing the support at 203.3, will bring GY to 202.0 (Fib Line)

17 May 2008

How I do daily market assessment?

I was very busy recently and as a result I was not writing and updating. I will be blogging the recent happening in www.phfamily.blogspot.com. Pray along with me.

1) What is the general trend?
Fundamental
The need for this answer will help you decide whether it is good to play long or short.
The answer can be found in reading news from www.forexfactory.com and http://finance.yahoo.com/

forexfactory shows you the results of the news as well as what are the news that are coming up.
yahoo shows you how the equity market, commodity market, the general news that make headline.

It will take you sometime to find co-relationship between the news and the trend. Give it a try and journal down each day on your prediction and write down why do you predict that direction. Over time, as you go through your journal, you may observe those prediction that was made correctly and what are the news and results that made you say so. Soon, I will say that by experience, you will attain what I called 'trader instinct'.

Technical
The general trend can also be predicted based on technical charts.

I used both the daily chart and the 1-hour chart, coupled with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100, EMA200, CCI.

CCI show you the continuous trend and it is for you to predict whether the trend will continue and be reverse. This prediction combines with the gradient of the CCI, the pass and current level of the CCI.

WMA5 and the EMAs from daily chart gives support and resistance level. Somtimes Fibonacci retracement is very useful.
For example, WMA5 has been going up for the last few days and is nearing EMA200. My prediction is that there will be a resistance at EMA200 and therefore the trend of going up may be halt and potentially a reversal

2. Where to enter trade?
After your expectation of the trend, there are four possible outcome:
Long breakout
Long reversal
Short breakout
Short reversal

Breakout means that after that support or resistance level, the price will strongly continue to go in that direction.

Reversal means that after hitting the support or resistance level, the price will rebound and reverse in direction.

I use the EMAs and Fibonacci retracment (somtimes with some Eillot Wave theory) to help me decide where can I enter my trade. You will need to understand some Psychology of Trade to observe how the WMA5 behave with the EMAs.

Again journal your decisions - why you enter the trade at that level..

I use both daily chart, but mainly the 1-hour chart to help me place my trade.

3. Where to exit trade?
Again the understanding in Psychology of Trade and your prediction in (1) and (2) will allow you to place your Take Profit (or exiting the trade).

But BUT BUT the method I play does not put Stop Loss. I use a very strict Money Management.

For the moment, place only long trade with no stop loss AND the total margin committed in all your combine open transactions be less than 20% of your trading capital.

4. Journal
Journal your trade - why you enter the trade with the above three reasons.

Happy trading - it should not take you more than half an hour a day.

15 May 2008

Reported at 0800hr
GJ
WMA5 headed towards EMA21 and EMA55. This pose a strong resistance and may trigger a rebounce of WMA5. A good support is found in 203.5 (EMA200 1 hour chart). Then 202.2 (Fib retracement).

Should WMA5 punch through EMA21 and EMA55, it will meet resistance at EMA100 (daily chart) at 206.2.

12 May 2008

Reported at 1100hrs SGT
GJ
Looking at the daily chart, CCI though did not go into a oversold, but clearly there was a sign od reversal. Gradient of the CCI has weakened, therefore showing signs of a reversal.

Support is at 200.0, looking at how on last Friday and this morning the low were.

Resistance is at 202 (Fib retracement 9 May low and 2 May high), then 203.3 (Fib retracement) then 204.4 (EMA21, EMA55)

9 May 2008

Reported at 0730hrs SGT
GJ
After a day of drop, which pushed WMA5 way below EMA21, EMA55, GJ was supported at 203.0 and 202.6. The struggle was evident in the 1 hour chart with 202.6 tested 3 times yesterday.

Will the down trend continue?

Looking at the daily chart, CCI has yet to go into oversold and the downtrend may continue. In such a case, support is at 200.8 using Fib retracement from 2 May peak and 16 Mar low.

On the other end, resistance is at 204.5 (EMA55), 205.2 (EMA21 and Fib Retracement line), then 206.7 (EMA100).

GU
GU went into an oversold position and showed signs of reversal).

At the 1 hour chart, a double bottom was form and price has been climbing.

Resistance is at 1.9580 (EMA55 1 hour chart) and 1.9620 (EMA100, 1 hour chart).

Support is at 1.9500 (low 7 May), then 1.9400 (low 20 Feb)

7 May 2008

Reported at 0730hrs SGT
GJ
Buyers seems to be back, thus supporting the WMA5 from falling below EMA100 (daily chart). Looking at the CCI, the down trend looks is weaken and may gear for another round of up.

A good breakup north is above 207.2, while a break south is at 205.4.

Support at 206.0 (EMA21) and 204.8 (EMA55)

Resistance is at 209.0 (peak), 213.9 (EMA200).

GU
Downtrend may continue to bring GU to an oversold position.
Support at 1.9635 (fib retracement) and 1.9500 (low).

Resistance at 1.9800 (EMA21) and 1.9850 (EMA100)

Reported at 1130hrs SGT

GJ
From the daily chart, WMA5 managed to go above EMA100. Will it maintain the momentum to hit EMA200?

The amrket may consolidate to swing the price down and therefore keep WMA5 below EMA100. If that is so, you will see support at 205.8 (EMA21) and 204.7 (EMA55).

On the other hand, if WMA5 managed to hang on to above EMA100 (207.0), it will have momentum to run towards 211, then 214.

Overall CCI, look down.

GU
CCI look down, but sign of doji appeared.

Support is at 1.9600 (Fib retracement, low level)

Resistance is at 1.9830 (EMA55), then 1.9920 (EMA200)

2 May 2008

Reported at 1000hrs SGT
GJ
WMA5 was constrained within EMA100 and EMA55 from the daily chart. It will be expected to have more ding-dong around this region before a breakout. The constrain gives a price region of around 207 and 204.5

Should a breakout up happen, it must break past the price of 208 for the WMA5 to clear EMA100, then reach the resistance at EMA200 at 213.8 or first half way mark at around 211.

Should the price break pass EMA55, it will gain support at 202, then 200.

Overall CCI indicate a sluggish up trend, showing sign of a rebound off EMA100.

GU
Looking at the daily chart, for the past days, EMA200 post a big resistance at 1.9930.

CCI showed up trend and therefore potential that will move the price towards EMA200. A breakout is possible will bring GU to 2.0000, then 2.1000. But looking at how the EU perform, the USD look to have more strength.

On the support, 1.9680 (Fib retracement) then 1.9600.

29 Apr 2008

Reported at 1000hrs

GJ

Looking at the Daily chart

WMA5 is above EMA100. Will it be supported there?

CCI is tapering side way. So will there be a trend in any direction?

The signs above look like there will be a weakening of upward trend. WMA5 though it zoom above EMA100 yesterday, but it has failed to sail pass it with any energy, looking at the doji the chart formed - indicating that sellers are coming in. There is also a lot of up movement recently and some form of consolidation is needed.

Support is at EMA100 (daily chart) at 206.9, then at EMA55 at 204.2

Resistance is at EMA200 (daily chart) at 214, provided it sail pass 209 (peak of 18 Apr), then 211 (half way mark), which offered alternate resistance.

Looking at the 1 hour chart:

It show a support first at EMA100 (1 hour chart) at 207.1 and at EMA200 (1 hour chart) at 206.4

Failing these support would means a downward movement to 204.2.

On the other side, should price break above 208.8 (peak for yesterday), there are chances for movement towards 211.0, then to 214.0

GU

Looking at the daily chart, it will probably another day od side movement.

Resistance is at EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.9950, then at 2.000.

Support is at 1.9780, then at 1.9600

28 Apr 2008

Reported at 0730hrs

GJ
Price of GJ has climbed, but WMA5 stop short at EMA100 (daily chart).

Should WMA5 punch through EMA100, GJ can reach 214 at EMA200. But from now at price 207 to 214 is too big a climb for GJ in 1 day. Give a half way make at 210 or 211, should set the resistance.

On the other side, WMA5 can rebound EMA100 and head back to EMA55. That bring the support at 204.

CCI shows a side movement.

GU
CCI showed a down trend.

Resistance is at EMA100 (daily chart) 1.9880 and EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.9940.

Moving down, support is at 1.9670 and 1.9600, (Fib retracement).

18 Apr 2008

It has been sometime that I have reported. Busy with an engineering project.

Reported at 0800hrs SGT
GJ
It made a big move yesterday. But looking at the daily chart, the price shot passed EMA55 heading towards EMA100, but the WMA5 has just crossed EMA21! It may not cross EMA55 today. What this means is that the price does not have the potential to hit EMA100 before a rebound occur.

Resistance is at EMA100 (daily chart) at 206.8. Support at 202.2 near EMA55.

GU
This pair made big moved up.
Daily chart CCI showed movement up before getting into an overbought position.

Clearly at the daily chart, EMA200 will post as a resistance at 1.9950, than 2.0000
Support at 1.9760, 1 hour chart EMA200.

9 Apr 2008

Reported at 1200hrs SGT
GJ
Looking at the daily chart, CCI showed a down trend. It would continue to go down, gaining support at 200.3 (Fib retracement from 4 Apr peak to 16 Mar low), then 198.8, then 197.3.

Can it go that low today? Well for this pair a movement by 300 pips is nothing!

Of course, it can rebound off EMA21 (dailychart) at 201.4 and head back to EMA55 (dailychart) at 203.8.

The hour chart showed resistance at 202 (EMA200), then 202.55 (EMA100)

GU
Looking at the daily chart, CCI is on the down trend, but momentum is slowing as GU may soon hit a oversold position and rebound.

How low can it still go? After last night low at 1.9670, price has been hovering there. Support is at 1.9600, then 1.9450, based on Fib retracement peak 27 Mar and low 20 Mar.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, we see resistance at EMA21 (1.9700), EMA55 (1.9780), EMA100 (1.9825) and EMA200 (1.9860).

8 Apr 2008

Reported 0730hrs SGT

GJ
Looking at the daily chart, it is like a tug of war. It is undecided to clear the EMA55 (dailychart) and looked as if WMA5 would rebound and hit EMA21 (dailychart)

Support is at 201.7, while resistance (should WMA5 break EMA55) goes to 206.6 then 208.5

7 Apr 2008

Reported at 1030hrs SGT
GJ
A consolidation was made with a down candle on Friday. This could be a part of the B-wave, before a big C-wave up and provided GJ clear EMA55 at 204.0 (daily chart). It could reach EMA100 (daily chart) at 208.5.

It may take a few days for consolidation, putting GJ in between the price range 204 and 201.5, EMA55 and EMA21 (daily chart). There is of course possibility of GJ breaking EMA21, thus bring the price to 197.1

For today, resistance is at 206.6 (resistance during 02-10 Mar), then 208.5 (EMA100 daily chart)
Support is at 202.4 (WMA100 1 hour chart), then 201.7 (EMA200 1 hour chart)

GU
GU is moving down as seen from CCI.

Looking now at the 1 hour chart, WMA5 has break EMA200.
Support is at 1.9870 and 1.9840.

This ring the resistance at 1.9920 (EMA 100/ EMA200)

4 Apr 2008

Report at 1000hrs SGT

GJ
Big move up, clear EMA21 (daily chart). It is now testing EMA55 (daily chart) at 204.1.
Looking at the WMA5, it is still below EMA55 and should it clear EMA55, price could reach resistance at EMA100 at 208.8.

To 208.8 is a big move, but GJ is capable of doing so. It may however, halt half way at 206.2 or 206.4.

On the reverse side, GJ may failed to punch through EMA55. If it is so, the price may fall back to support at EMA21 at 200.7.

The price now is around 204.1 to 204.4 region, which is the support before GJ did a dive to 200, then to 195. As such, there is a likelihood that GJ may take a breather. CCI showed tapering off, coming to a overbought position. If so, reversal would take place.

GU
GU did a good up yesterday, the price stop at 1.9980.

Support is at EMA200 (1 hour chart) at 1.9900 and EMA100 (1 hour chart) at 1.9880.

CCI showed momentum to go up. If so, it can easily break 2.0000 and hit to 2.0040 (Fib retracement)

31 Mar 2008

Report at 1000hrs
GJ
It still continue to hover in the trading range of 200.5 and 196.4

Today morning, looking at the 1 hour chart, GJ was trading below EMA200, but within an hour, it sailed above EMA200. This give a good for GJ to hold above 198.7.

Looking at the daily chart, resistance is still at 200.5 EMA21.
Support is at 196.4.

GU
Resistance look strong at EMA200 (1 hour chart) at 1.9965, but should GU go up pass this resistance, it can expect EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.9988, then above 2.0000 to 2.0070

Support is at EMA55 (daily chart)at 1.9895

28 Mar 2008

Report at 0900hrs
GJ
It failed to punch through EMA21 (daily chart). The price test the EMA21 and retrace back to the 200.5 resistance level.

It has been a number of days where GJ hovers around 200.5 and 196.4

Beware of a big breakout and it can be in either direction.

Resistance is at EMA55 (daily chart) at 205.2.
Support at 192.5 or even 190.0

GU
There is still uptrench stream, given the strong support at EMA200, EMA100 (all daily chart) at 1.993 and 1.998 zone.

Should it go up, it should close high above 2.0145 and should it break 1.9930, support is at 1.9730

27 Mar 2008

Report at 0830hrs SGT
GJ
Nearing EMA21 on the daily chart.
It could be another day for the price to hover between 200.5 and 194.5

But a breakout is imminent. Should it break up and above 200.5, it can reach 203 than 205.5.
Of course, on the reverse, support is at 194 and 195.

GU
CCI on a daily chart show up trend, but soon it will go into overbought and reverse.
From the daily chart, resistance is at 2.0143 and 2.0270.

A good support is form at EMA200 and EMA100 in the range 1.998 and 1.992, which explain the rebound yesterday

26 Mar 2008

Report at 0730hrs SGT
GJ
GJ hit EMA21 at 200.9, from the daily chart.

It may ir may not have the momentum to punch through - looking at the small candle formation and the tapering of CCI from the daily chart.

Should it go up, it can sustain the movement to EMA55 (daily chart) at 205.45, shich is also a good Fib retracement level.

However, a retracement down is also possible, bring the support at 195.7 (half way mark before low)

GU
The uptrend continue and it manage to clear through EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.997 and the 2.000 mark.

A short retracement to EMA21 (1 Hour chart) at 1.9978, before and should any momentum, to continue hitting the price of 2.0145 (a Fib retracement line taking from 20 mar low to 14 mar high)

Another support is at 1.992 EMA200 (1 hour chart)
Support

25 Mar 2008

Report at 1045hrs SGT

GJ
GJ touch 200 yesterday, but whether it can continue the up trend lies on whether it can beat EMA21 (daily chart) at 200.9. CCI continue to show up trend but may end when in overbought position.

Resistance is at 200.9 (EMA21 daily chart) and at EMA55 (daily chart) at 205.8

Of course, a fall back to support at 195 is a possibility, before hitting low at 192.6

GU
On the daily chart, CCI show up trend.
1.997 (EMA200 daily chart) pose as a resistance for any up movement.

On the support, 1.983 (EMA55 1 hour chart) before 1.973

24 Mar 2008

Report 0800hrs SGT

GJ
Today may be another low volatile day for GJ - Easter Monday Holiday.
Lokoking at the daily chart, a breakout could happen at either 198.3 and 195.0

Should GJ break up, resistance will be at 200.9 (EMA21 daily chart) and should GJ break south, the support will be at 192.5

Should GJ break 192.5, it may make a new low towards 185.0

GU
Looking at the daily chart and making a Fib retracement from 14 Mar High and 20 Feb Low, the first retracemene level is at 1.976, before 1.936

Again looking the daily chart, CCI indicate a uptrend. This means that a possible rebound off 1.976 level and head towards resistance at 1.998 (EMA200 daily chart).

But if rebound failed, CCI will go into oversold position and GU will break 1.976 level and head towards low at 1.936.

20 Mar 2008

Report at 1030hrs SGT
GJ
Yesterday dip after bouncing off the 201 mark, showed that the dive is still strong.
Looking at the daily chart, it could mark a formation of a B-wave and awaiting for a big C-wave down.

Taking a Fibonacci retracement from high of 18 Mar and low of 16 Mar, the support retracement is at 186.6, then 177.4

Today support is at 192.5, a failure in this line will be a confirmation of the C-wave down.

On the reverse, resistance is at 199.6, EMA200 (1 hour chart). 200 is a strong line to break and that will bring hope for a strong upward movement.

GU
GU will continue to move down, gaining support at 1.970, before going to 1.930. Fibonacci retracement from daily chart (High of 14 Mar and low of 5 Mar)

Resistance will be at 1.989 (EMA55 daily chart) and 1.997 (EMA200 daily chart)

19 Mar 2008

Report at 0800hrs SGT
GJ
A big reversal and shot pass the resistance of 200.0. The price now is 201.2 and looking at the 1 hour chart, it is above EMA200.

Should GJ can maintain above this EMA200, which will become the support, GJ can reach 203.

GU
Fed interest rate cut brought down the GU, swinging it below EMA200 at 2.0140 (1 hour chart).

Support is at 2.0003, EMA200 (daily chart), while resistance is at 2.0140 and 2.0280

18 Mar 2008

Report at 12oohrs SGT

GJ
The price is supported currently at around 192. But potentially, GJ may break towards 190.0, then towards 186.0

Looking at the daily chart, CCI is on the up trend.
And looking at the 1 hour chart, resistance is at EMA21 at 195.3, EMA55 at 196.5.

GU
GU rebound off 2.0000. Looking at the daily chart, it tested the EMA200.

Support is at 1.994.

Resistance is at 2.0137 EMA200 using 1 hour chart

17 Mar 2008

Reported at 0800 SGT

GJ
It fell off the cliff at 200!
The next support is at 196 and of course 200 became the resistance. It may be sometime for UK to recover and it look as if the UK economy breakdown first as compare to the Japanese.

GU
Likewise, on Friday, it failed to hit higher than 2.04. Price fell back to 2.02.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA200 at 2.0172. Further support is at EMA200 from the daily at 1.999.

Resistance is at 2.04.

Should GU managed to rebound off either EMA200, it could break high at 2.04.

14 Mar 2008

Report at 1100hrs SGT

GJ
It still continue to hovers around 204 and 203.

Using 1 hour chart, a breakout out of 202.9 or 206.0 will then determine the direction of this pair.

GU
Up trend has soften.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, GU could move down further to EMA55 at 2.026, thento EMA100 at 2.021.

Should a break out above 2.040, potential it will move to 2.0475 (Fib retracement from daily chart).

13 Mar 2008

Report at 0730hrs SGT

GJ
The price refuse another breakout north. The price has been hovering between 208 and 203.5.

From daily chart,
Support is at year low ~203.5 and 203 region.
Resistance at 208.0 then 210.2

From 1 hour chat,
EMA21 to EMA200 offer resistance at 206.5

GU
It shot up another high, after clearing 2.0220 resistance.

Take a Fib retracement (from 20 Feb low to 9 Nov high).
Yesterday it tested the retracement level at 2.0261, the next level is at 2.0473, which will be the resistance for the day.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA21 (2.0200), EMA55 (2.0155) and EMA200 (2.0755).

CCI indicator point to another up trend today.

12 Mar 2008

Report at 0830hrs

GJ
GJ tested its low again at 203, which proved to be a strong support. The price rebound and potentially attempt EMA55 (daily chart) at 210.27

GU
Looking at the 1 hour chart, WMA5 now sandwich between EMA100 and EMA200 at 2.0096 and 2.0046.

Just below the EMA200 (1 hour chart) is the support at 2.0000, which GU tested it but failed to clear it and rebound.

Looking at the daily chart, should GU clear the price at 1.995 below the EMA200 and the 2.0000 support price, it will also face EMA100, around the price range of 1.990.

Should GU break north, it has to clear 2.011 and also the high at 2.0220, before potential going higher towards 2.030

11 Mar 2008

Report at 0800hrs SGT

GJ
It did a big dive down yesterday.
From the daily chart, GJ has the momentum to contiune its downward climb should be break year low at 203.5 or around 203. Support at 200.0

Resistance at EMA21 (1 hour chart) at 205.2 and EMA200(1 hour chart) at 206.5 should GJ reverse today and bound off year low support.

GU
It did a consolidation yesterday. The trend may contine and take support at EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.998, thus should it rebound from here, this will form the B-wave.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, WMA5 hovers between EMA100 and EMA200, 2.011 and 2.0036.
Should the price break at 2.014, resistance will be at 2.022.
Should the price break 2.0030, support will be at 1.998

10 Mar 2008

Reported at SGT 1200hrs

GJ
It has been consolidating for the last days, after bouncing off the year low support at 204/204.

A good breakout north will give GJ a hit towards EMA55 (daily chart) at 210.5.
On the other hand, shoulg GJ break the support at 203, iGJ will make new low at 200.

Looking at the 1 hour chart, it confrim the consolidation, with all the EMAs close to each other. A good price for break out is above EMA200 at 206.86 and at 206.1 (below EMA21)

GU
Looking at the daily chart, CCI indicate a reversal down.
After the recent days of climb, GU may take a breather.

Loking at the 1 hour chart, EMA21 offers the first support at 2.0165 and EMA55 offers support at 2.0137.

Of course on the upper side, GU has the potential to reach 2.0300

7 Mar 2008

Report at 0700 SGT

GJ
Looking at the daily chart, GJ is now making a B-wave down, before the next C-wave.

Support is attained at ~205 (Fib Retracement) and should the C-wave form, the price should head toward EMA21 (daily) at 208.4 then EMA55(daily) at 2011.5.

The 1 hour chart confirmed the consoldiation - WMA5 sandwiched by EMA200 at 207.0 and EMA100 at 206.0. Should the price breakout, it will gain monemtum towards the support and resistance mentioned in the above paragraph.

GU
Finally, a break from 2.0000!

But looking at the daily chart, WMA5 has not cross EMA200, which means today the price will consolidate. There may be some retracement after yesterday long candle.

It should find some support at 2.0005 and 1.9996 range (EMA200 and physchological 2.0000)

The price has the momentum to continue up, just by comparing the strength of EUR/USD reaching new high! GU has the potential to climb to 2.0325 (Fib Retracement)

Looking at the 1 hour chart, it seems that the bull is still raging up! The 1 hour chart shows and confirm the support at 2.0032 (EMA21) and 1.9955 (EMA55)

6 Mar 2008

Time SGT 0945hrs (computer very slow, so no pics)
GJ
Looking at the daily chart, CCI is still gaining strength. But of course, the price tested EMA21 (daily chart) with a day high of 207.77 and now fall back to 206.55.

I am expecting some form of slow down today, or even a down candle, but in general, GJ will attempt to at least sail towards EMA55 (daily chart) at 211.3

The hour chart support the above claim. WMA5 (1 hour chart) now lies between EMA200 and EMA100 (1 hour chart). Should the price break above 207.77, it will continue towards 211.3. But should today, the price break 205.5, clearing EMA55 and EMA21 (1 hour chart) at the same time (which can be difficult), it will find support at 204.3 (year low).

GU
A big dogi formation looking at the daily chart, which means buyer and seller on par. Buyer trying to break the EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.997 and seller trying to break the EMA100, EMA55, EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.972. It ended with the WMA5 still in between EMA100 and EMA200 (daily chart).

Looking at the 1 hour chart, WMA5 is now above all the EMAs. This means that potentially the price may hovers around EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.997 and EMA200 (1 hour chart) at 1.982.

Should price sail pass 1.997, it will find resistance at a good 2.03, a big fibonacci retracement! Take a half way mark for profit.

Should the price break below EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.972, it will find support at first 1.9667, then 1.9600

5 Mar 2008

Singapore Time 0700hrs
GJ

Take a look at the daily chart

Price now is ~205.4

Year low happens to be around 203/204 and that provided a good support. In addition, the CCI indicator showed a turn around.

The next resistance is at EMA21 (daily chart, above) at 208.6

Of course, in the down side, GJ may attempt to slide below 203 and made a move towards 200, but look unlikely today. Again, 203 proved to give the support. Take a look at the 1 hour chart.
From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 has cleared EMA55 (1 hour chart) and look likely to attempt EMA100 and EMA200 (1hour chart). In addition, EMA21 is also attempting to clear EMA55. GJ therefore look more to move up than down today (technical speaking).

GU
Take a look at the 1 hour chart.



WMA5 is sandwiched between EMA200 and EMA100/EMA55/EMA21.

Yesterday is another attempt by GU to breakout north, but failed.


Resistance is set at 1.990 but will face another tasked of breaking the daily EMA200 at 1.996. See chart below.



On the other side, should the price break EMA200 (1 hour chart ) at 1.981, it will gain support at EMA55 (daily chart) at 1.975

4 Mar 2008

GJ
GJ make a new year low yesterday, hitting 203.48. It rebounce off this support and head straight towards EMA21 (1 hour chart).

Of course, it is always two things would happen - up or down. The price now hovers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart).

Should the price turn down and sail towards 203.0, it will gain momentum to hit towards 200

Resistacne line is at EMA100 (1 hour chart) at 206.3

GU
GU price nows hovers between EMA100 and EMA200 ( 1hour chart). The channel has been closing and a breakout would happen.

Should the price clear 1.980, it will it supported at 1.975 (EMA55 daiy chart) before deciding to rebound up or continue its road south.

Should the price break 1.987, it will gain momentum to hit 1.996 (EMA200 daily chart) and potential clear 2.000

3 Mar 2008

GJ
It did a dive all the all to its year low at 204.6. The price this morning hit 204.4.

Support will lies at 204.4 and should GU break this price, a record low will be set at 200!
Of course, a likely reversal towards EMA21 (dailychart) at 209.3. Wait for CCI to reverese before placing long position.

GU
From the daily chart WMA5 nows sandwich between EMA100 and EMA200. A likely consolidation before a breakout would occur.

Resistance is at EMA200 (daily chart) at 1.997 and support is at EMA55 and EMA21 (daily chart) at 1.974

Wait for breakout for a clear GU direction.

29 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 210.16
Lo 207.95

GJ did a major pull down yesterday. It broke through the support at 209.0
The next support is at 207

Potential, GJ needs a breather or a reverse before another climb down.

I expect it to reverse at 208 back to EMA21 (1 hour chart) at ~209.5
Of course should be it below 207.5, it may go to the next support at 207.0 / 206.0


GU
GU did another attempt at 1.997 (EMA200 Daily chart). It breakout of the EMA21 (1 hour chart) at 1.986 and instead of reversing to EMA100 (1 hour chart) to 1.980.

The price now is at 1.988, hovering just above EMA21 (1 hour chart)
It may does another breakout at 1.995 and potential to head towards 2.000
It may on the other choose to consolidate and move side way, or attempt to break EMA21 (1 hour chart) towards EMA55 (1 hour chart) at 1.980

28 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 211.85
Lo 210.64

The market went down with a more than 200pips dip yesterday, after a failed breakout from EMA55 (daily chart) north towards EMA100 (daily chart). As such EMA55 will still form a resistance at ~213.50

Support is at EMA21 (daily chart) at ~210.40. A breakout south from EMA21 will find support at ~209.0 (Fib retracement daily chart)

GU
The price attempt EAM200 (Daily chart) yesterday. In fact it did a double top before climbing down, and sail pass EMA21 (1 hour chart).

I expect the price to consolidate today, after the last 2 days of big movement. The band will be between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart) at 1.985 and 1.980 respectively.

CCI has not go into overbought, but gradient is tapering off. Of course breakout north is still possible at 1.985 towards EMA200 (daily chart) and beyond.

Should GU break south, it will be supported at 1.976 (EMA100 1 hour chart) followed by 1.970 (EMA200, 1 hour chart)

27 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 213.52
Lo 212.83

GJ tested the EMA55 (daily chart) and start its retracement to EMA21 (1 hour chart) in the morning trading.

Resistance EMA55 (daily chart) at 213.0 and the next at EMA100 (daily chart) at ~217.0
Support is at EMA55 (1 hour chart) at 212.3

Should GJ clear past Hi at 213.52, the traget will be 217. Place long limit at 213.52, TP 214.52, SL 212.52

The movement this morning is fast, expecting a rebound off EMA21 (1 hour chart), before attempting EMA55 (1 hour chart). No clear indication of movement.

GU
It breaks north after sailing past 1.974 and head straight towards 1.985 (high was at 1.989). It did a retracement, but the CCI indicator still shows strength to bring GU to a overbought state.

1.990 is one price to watch. Should GU clear this the next big resistance will be at 2.000, which is also around EMA200 (daily chart).

On the contrary, GU may make a retracement, first to 1.980 (EMA21 1 hour chart), then to 1.974 (EMA55 1 hour chart)

Place long limit order at 1.974, TP 1.985
Long limit order at 1.9900, TP 1.9995

26 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 212.91
Lo 212.23

Resistance ~213.0 (Daily Chart EMA55)
Support 212.13 (1 hour chart EMA21)

Should GU break ~213.0, the next level it will attempt is 217 (daily chart EMA100)
Going down look to face more resistance - from the 1 hour chart EMA21 at 212.13, EMA55 at 211.60, EMA100 at 211.3 and EMA200 at 211.0.

GU consolidated between EMA21 and EMA55 (daily chart).
CCI indicator shows signs of weakening.

The breakout price is at 1.974 for going north, and 1.958 for going south.

The level of resistance at 1.985 (daily chart EMA 100) and support at ~1.940 (where 3 bottoms from the daily chart holds)

25 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 211.47
Lo 210.75

Resistance line at ~213 (1 day chart EMA 55)
Support at ~210.76 ( 1 hour EMA200), in addition, Fib retracement (daily chart) still holds at ~209.0

Place Long Limit 211.47, TP 212.47, SL 210.47
Place short limit 210.75-0.25 = 210.5, TP = 209.5, SL 211.5

GU
I am expecting a movement that is kept within the EMA21 and EMA55 (daily chart). That is 1.970 and 1.961, before a breakout.

As such, long and short order can either be placed to cstch the whip saw movements or simple wait for the breakout.

22 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 211.35
Lo 210.21

The high was created at the last minute of the 0900/0959 SGT candle.
Yesterday a peak was created at ~212, as such this pair may faced resistance at around that level. The next resistance is at ~213.30 (daily chart EMA55). Therefore it is either enter the market order for long and take profit just below 212 (or 25 below 212) to expect a reverse, or enter above 212 to expect a breakout

Support firmly at ~210.67 (1 hour chart EMA200/ EMA100 and EMA55)

Place long limit order at 212.01, TP, 213.01, SL 211.01
Place short limit order at 210.21, TP 209.21, SL 211.21

GU signal for bull run is here. But expect a breather, after yesterday >200pips run. The first resistance line is at 1.971 (EMA55 from daily chart). Should it clear this, the next will be towards EMA100 at 1.986. CCI(14) and CCI(34) shows no sign of reversal, strongly punching through the BB.

Support can be found at EMA21 (1 hour chart) at 1.959. I am expecting a rebound towards 1.971 after the support rebound. Next level of support is at 1.955 (EMA200 1 hour chart)

21 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 210.42
Lo 209.70

Resistance line at EMA200 (1 hour chart ) at ~210.6
Support at Fib retracement (daily chart at ~209.0)

Place Long limit order at 210.42 + 25 = 210.62, TP 211.62, SL 209.62
Short Limit order at 209.7, TP = 209.7-25 = 209.45, SL 208.7

GU should find its support at 1.9330 and 1.9250. Failure to rebound at this level will bring a whole year low, potentially to go below 1.900.

One the positive side, GU has shown sign of reversal, bouncing off the support at 1.9330 yesterday. Still waiting for clear signal in the CCI (daily chart) to confrim reversal.

20 Feb 2008

GJ Hi 210.35
Lo 209.59

Resistance at 1hour 200EMA at 210.8, next at ~213.4 (1day EMA55)
Support at ~209.5 than ~206.8 (Fib retracement from 1 day chart)

To enter high, it will be good to wait for the price to clear EMA200 at 210.8, that is enter at 210.8+0.25 = 211.05, TP at 212.05, SL 210.05

For Low enter at 209.59, TP 208.59, SL at 210.59

Mistake, mistake (added at SGT2000hrs)
As I check the daily fib retracement, a support line was at ~209.0. That means that the short limit order should be place below that.

The short limit order, was filled at 209.59 and the retracement at the support 209.0 was made. As such, any possible chance now was to close the order and hopefully take some profit

GU strongly supported at ~1.9475.
Resistance for breakout at EMA100 1 hour chart at ~1.9525, before meeting another resistance at EMA200 (1 hour chart) at ~1.965

Should support be broken at ~1.9415, GU will create a new low. However on the daily chart, using the CCI signal, GU showed sign of a upward movement. Give another day or so, before confirming any long position.

19 Feb 2008

GJ Hi at 211.50
Lo at 211.69

Resistance remain unchange at ~213.60 (1 day EMA55)
Support remain at ~210.73 (1 day EMA21)

Long Limit order placed at 211.50, TP 212.50, SL 210.50
Short Limit order not placed as I have one short order still open. TP at 209.60, SL at 211.60

GU was supported at ~1.950. I am expecting some whip saw movement in the region 1.960 and 1.950.

A long position above at 1.960 (1 hour 200EMA) will be good for entry.
The next level of support is found at 1.938. CCI signals still show GU having the potential to go lower. Reversal may not in sight today.

18 Feb 2008

GJ Hi at 212.17
Lo at 210.93

Day resistance line is at ~213.77
Day support line at ~210.67

As such, place Long limit order at 212.17, TP at 213.17, SL at 211.17
For short limit order, I placed it at 210.93-25pips = 210.68, TP at 209.68, SL at 211.68

GU should finds its support at 1.9502 and should it be so, formed the B-wave and thus creating the potential for GU to reach new high at 1.974

15 Feb 2008

GJ for 15 Feb

Hi: 212.94
Lo: 211.96

Support line at EMA55 from 1 hr chart at 211.88
Resistance at 214.00

As such Long Limit Order: 212.94, SL 211.94, TP 213.94
Short Limit Order: 211.96-25 = 211.71, SL 212.71, TP 211.11 (70 pips, another support at EMA100 from 1 hour chart)

The reasons for putting a short limit order at 211.71 instead of 211.96 is to clear the EMA55 line. Once cleared, the price will have the liberty to go further to EMA100.

14 Feb 2008

Low for Nicotina GJ play is 211.06 not 211.07, but 1 pip what is the difference.

Anyway, not entering the short limit order play today.

Will wait for long limt order to trigger.

14 Feb

The high and low for GBP/JPY play is
Hi 212.830
Lo 212.07

Hi and Lo taken from 1800GMT to 0159GMT or 0200hrs to 0959hrs Singapore time (SGT), using Oanda 1 hour chart

There is a support (EMA21, 1 hour chart) at 211.83-211.80, moreover the low was triggered at 0959SGT.
Resistance line (EMA55, 1 day chart) at 214.0

As such I will set
Long limit order: 212.830, SL 212.830, TP 213.830
Short Limit order: wait and see, will update again at 1200hrs SGT

26 Nov 2007

1. News: Europe will not have many news today to create major upsets in the currency.

US consumner confidence, which will be announced today at ST 2300hrs, will have an impact. This index has been on the decline, which may confirm Fed about the state of the economy.

2. Stock Markets: US did a small recovery, probably due for some profits taking. Europe lead the way, showing a rebound on Friday.

3. Major Currencies: USD in strengthen on Friday.

4. Technicals: From the CCI, a rebound occurred in the center BB line. BB has also thin out. From the daily chart, WMA5 has been sandwiched between EMA21 and EMA55 for a few days. These are all signs of breakout. From the hour chart, WMA5 has swing above and below EMA200. Today is still a day of dispersions.

5. Personal Assessment: Should a breakout north occur, I will place the resistance at 2.0770 and for the other, support at 2.0500.

22 Nov 2007

1. News: BoE has a vote of 7-2 and therefore it seem for the moment that interest rate is not going to be cut.

US will be having Thanksgiving Holiday.

2. Stock Market: The world market plunged, ranging from Asia to Europe to US. All closes anything from 1.33% to 2.5%! Hang Seng has 4.5%!

3. Major Currencies: USD show sign of weakening against all major currencies.

4. Technicals: From the daily chart, the up is gaining momentum, should CCI cleared the second BB line, a high chance of going up. From the 1 hour chart, formation of a double bottom. WMA5 dip below EMA200 and rebounded above EMA200. Now supporting it and after yesterday battle that seem that the buyers has won, lies EMA200 and EMA100. EMA21 failed to go below EMA200 and indicate further a likelihood for going up. Resistance at 2.0700 and support at 2.0520.

4. Personal Assessment: All play now lies at the EUrope market today. GBP has a news on Bussiness Investment, which has been on the rise - a positive effect on GBP, but this is not a strong news. US stock market is close and with yesterday dip, the momentum will contiune. Technically, it will be a matter of when the GBP break up. From the indicators watch out for CCI to bit the second BB line and for EMA21 to rebound off EMA200. The formation of a double bottom from the 1 hour chart has indicated that the battle was won by the buyers.

21 Nov 2007

1. News: There was no mention on interest rate at FOMC. Instead, "The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, "the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast.

Today ST 1730hrs, BOE issued a generally downbeat assessment of the economy in its quarterly inflation report and effectively indicated that rates would be cut within the next few months. It look to be negative for the UK currency given that there will be a discussion of interest rate cuts and the UK growth risks with the possibility of a very close vote.

2. Stock market: The FTSE gain yesterday by more than 100 points. The rest of Europe also rally. US market took the chance for some profit taking. DOW close 50 points up.

3. Major Currencies: All major currencies except the JPY, did a breakout, strengthening against the GBP.

4. Technicals: From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 managed to punch through EMA200. The testing point will be for GBP to sailed pass the price at 2.0700. A rebound could happen and that gives the support at 2.0520. Another support is at 2.0420.

5. Personal assessment: GBP has not shown any clear direction, but the chances for it to go up is there. CCI has reversed and pierce through the first BB line. EMA21 from the daily chart has passed EMA200 and should it not reverse, given the first support at 2.0520, GBP has again good to go up. BoE will cut rates, but so far only one member consent to it.

20 Nov 2007

1. News: It has been quiet yesterday. Today watch out for US Housing starts - but this figure will continue to fall and will not be much out of expectation. The biggest news to watch for is FOMC at Singapore time Wed 0300hrs. Will Fed cut interest rate?

2. Stock Market: Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.

Stock markets overseas also slumped. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 2.71 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.65 percent.

3. Major Currencies: It has been much a side way movement for the dollars against the major currencies.

4. Technicals: Yesterday saw WMA5 (daily chart) attempting to pass EMA100, but failed. The CCI move down with yesterday price, but not into an oversold position. Likewise on the 1 hour chart, EMA5 failed to punch up through EMA55 and EMA100. The question is a matter of time and attempts. 2.0400 still pose a good support line for price to sail to EMA200 on the daily chart. On the contrary, 2.0570 is a good price for resistance.

5. Personal Assessment: The last two time Fed announced interest rate cut, it push the GBP up. (Sep 18 and Nov 1). There has been hints of no cut this time round. 'Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,' 'since the October rate cut, the data suggests the US economy is still 'resilient,' but noted that volatility and strains remain.' Bernanke warns.

A good look out is for WMA to pass support 2.0400 or EMA100 or pass resistance 2.0570 or EMA55. It can go both way with good chance for both. With a quiet day all brewing towards FOMC - play with caution.

19 Nov 2007

1. News: A series of forthcoming 'downbeat' data releases will not necessarily lead to another interest rate cut, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner has warned financial markets.

There are no major news both from the UK and the US today.

2. Stock Market: In relative to the US, the European market showed weakness on Friday. The FTSE was down by more than 1%. The DOW was down and recovered only in the last hours of trading.

3. Major Currencies:The USD showed no sign of strengthening against the major currencies.

4. Technicals: From the daily chart, CCI did not go into an oversold position. WMA5 rebounded off EMA100 and head straight towards EMA55 and will attempt to clear it. Should it clear it, price will go towards EMA21 at 2.0655. Likewise, the attempt may failed and GBP will go towards EMA200, should WMA5 clear EMA100. The support line is at 2.0400.

5. Personal Assessment: No major news today. The market may consoldiate after last week dip. A uptrend is possible depending how WMA5 perform.

16 Nov 2007

1. News: US CPI inflation met expectations with a rise of 0.3 pct in October from September, as strong inflation will make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates again. Jobless claims also painted a gloomy picture for the economy. Data showed there were 339,000 new claims for the week ending Nov 10, up 20,000 from the prior week and higher than expectations for a broadly unchanged reading.On the flipside, the New York Fed's manufacturing survey for November suggested business conditions remained firm in October, with the reading dipping to 27.37 from 28.75 in October.

In its quarterly inflation report released yesterday, the Bank of England said it expects tighter credit conditions, lower house price inflation and heightened inflation to dampen consumer spending. After yesterday's dovish Bank of England inflation report, which all but confirmed that two UK interest rate cuts will be forthcoming next year, the weak figures will add to speculation that the first move could come as early as next month.

2. Stock Market: Europe market and US market both down. Admist fear of gas price and oil prices, triggered uncertainity. For this week, both UK and US has been reporting negative news indicating a weakening US and UK economy .

3. Major Currencies: Both CHF and EUR seemed to be moving side way, giving no strong clues in which direction. The JPY showed another round of strengthening process.

4. Technicals: From the daily chart, WMA5 passed EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. In term of price, GBP is now hoveing near 2.0430, around EMA100. Should WMA5 clear EMA55, there will be a good tendency for GBP to reach EMA200 or at 2.0230. On the contrary, from the 1 hour chart, WMA5 may attempt to move up and pass EMA21, at 2.0520

5. Personal Assessment: Being the last day of the week and with few major news, I don't expect any reversal of the GBP to happen today. It will be good to observe how WMA5 from the daily chart perform in the case of a rebound off EMA55. GBP should go down to bring the CCI to an oversold position, and should such a case well supported by EMA5 clearing EMA55, the price could posible reach support at EMA200 or at 2.0230

15 Nov 2007

1. News: The BoE's latest forecasts showed annual inflation would be at 2.00 pct in two years' time, based on market forecasts that interest rates will fall to 5.2 pct by early 2009 and 5.1 pct by the end of 2009.If interest rates stay as they are at 5.75 pct, however, CPI inflation will fall to around 1.75 pct, the report showed. The pound weakened in expectation of an interest rate cut.

In the US, Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, were unchanged in October. The last time core prices rose more slowly was in March, when they fell 0.1 pct. This push further the pound down.

Tonight, there will be news from the US on Unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. In expectation, Government data released Thursday is forecast to show crude-oil inventories fell last week for the fourth straight period.

2. Stock Market: Europe market did a mini rally yesterday, with the FSTS running up by more than 1%. On the contrary, US market was mainly still yesterday, but ended in red during the last hour of trading.

3. Major Currencies: With exception from GBP, the rest of the major curreny did relatively small movement, forming doji.

4. Technicals: GBP came down to form the C-wave. From the 1 day chart, WMA5 cleared EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. However, bearing in mind that 2.0600 used to be a resistance line for months, before a breakout happened late last month.

5. Personal Assessment: With all the negative news from the UK coming to an end and with major reporting now coming from the US, I will expect some form of consolidation to happen. Yes the formation of the C-wave is there, and indicator from CCI continue to show the potential for GBP to go south till a oversold position. However, 2.0600 and EMA55 (1 day chart) may prove to be a support line. Therefore, watch out for any such formation in CCI or a rebound of WMA5 on EMA55 (1 day) and should there be a need, please abandon short position.

14 Nov 2007

1. News: Yesterday UK CPI reported better results than expected. Also today, The UK interest rate debate will remain very open in the short term and the Bank of England quarterly inflation report will be important for rate expectations.there is likely to be some downside Sterling risk on a cautious outlook for the economy. There is likely to be some downside Sterling risk on a cautious outlook for the economy.

13 Nov 2007

1. News: Manufacturers raised output prices by their highest annual amount in 12 years, as they pushed through the cost of higher crude oil and food prices on to customers. Rate-setters at the Bank of England will be concerned about the sharp rises in both input and output prices ahead of the release of its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday.

Today, The Tuesday UK consumer inflation data will be important in determining the near-term pricing pressures and the degree of flexibility that the bank will have to respond to fears over a slowdown in growth. A low reading for inflation would make it much more likely that the bank would sanction a December interest rate cut to offset the credit crunch.

2. Stock Market: The Dow closes below 13,000. Wall Street ratcheted its way through a fractious session Monday before finally closing lower on expectations of further fallout from the ongoing credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials, up more than 100 points during the day, ended below 13,000 for the first time since August. On the contracry, European market closes mixed.

3. Major Currencies: All major currencies make a retracement against the dollars yesterday.

4. Technicals: With yesterday, the formation of three black crows was completed. Using a 1 day chart, the GBP hit the EMA55. It touches the 2.0560 - 2.0620 region that for the last 2 months it has been trying to break.

5. Personal Assessment: There are no big news in the US that will affect the GBP greatly today. Of course with yesterday Dow dip, it may follow through the momentum for another day of dip or consolidation, giving the fact that 13,000 is a good support line, which DOW has been trying to break this year.

UK has a CCI annoucement 1730hrs.
The FTSE close at 6337 yesterday,which the FTSE failed to push through resistance at the confluence of the 100 and 200 SMAs at 6,426/35 on Friday, indicating that equities are lacking bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the index stopped short of falling through the 50 percent retracement level of 5,821.7. The reversal took place.

With 3 days of black crows, the expectation will be mixed today.

My expectation is for the GBP to do a consolidation today, bouncing off the EMA55 on the daily chart, forming a B-wave, before the creation of a C-wave towards EMA200 on the daily chart.

I will place a breakout south at 2.0500, with support at 2.0200. Alternatively, the break out north is at 2.0720

9 Nov 2007

1. News: UK interest rate remains at 5.75%. US unemployment rate fall.
Two important news today is on UK and US trade balance. However, the figure release would be more or less as expected. As such, the pressure is for GBP to continue to climb.

2. Stock Market: European market moved sideway yesterday, with US market contiune to take a dip. Stocks extended the previous day's steep losses after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that a raft of economic troubles could dent business growth and after Cisco's comments touched off unease about business spending. But buyers moved back in late in the session, apparently thinking the market's selloff had been overdone.

3. Major Currencies: EUR, CHF continune to show strength, with the JPY forming a doji.

4. Technicals: With no reversal in view, GBP seem to be ramping up for another up-wave. A good resistance to hit is at 2.1280. However, on the contrary, CCI(34) showed a overbought case and somewhat and unless CCI pass through the cnetral of the BB, GBP will make a upward trend. Support will be at 2.0960.

5. Personal Assessment: I believe the market will move side and lingers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart), after a failure to do so yesterday, before a rebound north. There are no signs of UK intend to weaken the pound nor there is sign of US economy recovery. The northward bound will be abandon should GBP sailed pass 2.0960 and CCI(34) from 1 day chart go below the BB central line.

25 Oct 2007

1. News: US reported a falling housing sales numbers and the ripple effect will be that the housing credit woes are not over yet and now people are feeling the actual effect.

Today, two major news, the unemployment claims at SGT 2030 and New Home sales at SGT2200. These news will be watch to signify the health of the economy.

2. Stock Market: Bank of America has announced to cut 3000 jobs. the Dow dip a little yesterday but in general, movement in the stock market is calm. Euorpean market too move sideway, end slightly in the red.

3. Major Currencies: EUR move sideway yesterday, a sign of consolidation after days of strengthening against the dollar. CHF and JPYlooked as it would be weaken against the dollars.

4. Technicals: With the 1 hour chart, GBP was well supported by EMA200. Attempts to clear through 2.0440 failed. Movement has been side way for the day, after 2 days of big swing down and up. On the 1 day chart, CCI showed that GBP would continue to strengthen till it achieved an overbought position. Resistance seemed to be set at 2.0500, where a big punch through would render 2.0500 becoming a good support line. A clear break north is set at 2.0640

5. Personal Assessment: The European government has been weary of the strong EUR, but is there a way to put it to a stop? US economy continue to show sign of weakness, and further coupled with next week Fed interest annoucement with a potential to cut rates will sent the dollars to a new low. Decisions to buy is difficult as you may be catch in a overbought position. Market has clearly consolidated yesterday and a breakout is emminent. I will wait for a clear signal, with north after a firm 2.0525 and south after a firm 2.0340. Attempts will be for WMA5 (using the 1 hour chart) to clear EMA200 at 2.0440. Therefore, it will either clear it and go south or rebound to go north.

24 Oct 2007

1. News: US will be announcing Home Sales at 2200hrs. The result, should it fall out of expectation will send the dollars weaken.

2. Stock Mkt: US Market did a profit taking yesterday with DOW gaining 100 points after losing more than 300 points last week. Results of good earning helped push the market up.

3. Currency: Dollars weaken on overll with all major currency. Signs of further weakening is there.

4. Technicals: GBP zoom passed 2.0500 and sailed pass EMA200 on the 1 hour chart, clearing with ease 2.0420. As such, that formed a good support line, with much potential for GBP to hit a new high of 2.0600

5. Personal View: US economy has showed signs of weakness and with no UK news to counter, the dollars is expected to weaken against the GBP. Of course, 2.0420 give the support. CCI from 1 day chart showed a contiune movement up to bring GBP to a overbought position. The high is set at 2.0765. Of course and naturally 2.0650 (all time high) give the resistance.

17 Oct 2007

1. News: UK CPI, one of the key economic indicator for inflation fell below expectation to 1.5%. The move suggest a impending inflation and strongly urge BoE to cut interest rate like its Fed counterpart. This CPI has been below the BoE's 2.0 pct target rate for three months running and has weighed on sterling since it raises expectations that UK interest rates could be cut before the end of this year.

Also yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the slumping housing market remains a "significant drag" on the economy. Oil hit another high at $88, with the potential to erode away any weak dollars advantage the US economy enjoy in export. All showing more oreintation to a weaker economy.

BoE will meet to discuss interest rate today at 1630.
Also at 2030, US housing starts. A low level of housing activity signals that the construction industry isgoing down and that consumers have less the capital to make large investments.

2. Stock market is down for both Europe and US, mainly due to the news.

3. GBP fell against all major currencies yesterday.

4. Technically, the GBP look for another day of fall to the support line at 2.0270 and 2.0200. Again, the attempt togo above 2.04500 failed and that offer and suggested the super resistance line.

5. My personal view:
Key figures released yesterday has pushed the GBP down, technically, the GBP has moved side way and it is now looking for a clear trend. Most likely, BoE will reduce interest rate next month. With most EUR and GBP make high against the dollars, the intention to weaken the currencies is there. EUR hit high, but failed to clear 1.430.

On the US side, all words about the economy is that there will be pending recession, the dollars has weakened and that helped to cushion US export.

Technically, CCI showed down and has been side way. A good formation to wait is for CCI to either clear BB mean line or to go below -150 to get into a oversold condition.

I will favour a sell today, with support at EMA55 on the daily chart. Attempt to break it is good before EMA100. It's time for GBP to make some clear trend.

12 Oct 2007

1. US Jobless claim fell and is better than expected. Trade Balance is better than expected too. As such, it justified the economy sentiments that the credit woes did not and was not due to the fundamental. This would give an indication that the economy is not hitting a recession.

With no major UK news today and with Fed speaking today (ST) at 2110, after US PPI announcement, the trend of a stronger dollars will continue. Fed is expected to cut rate, but who knows what will Ben say tonight, given indication of a "still" robust economy.

2. Europe market did a "mini" rally yesterday, with FTSE gaining almost a 100 points. US market on the contrary did some profit taking.

Note: Accordingly, a bullish rally in the market has a reverse effect on the country currency. Though not always true, people will sell away the currency to borrow cheaper currency and buy stocks.

3. Major currency ended mix. With Euro up, GBP down, CHF Up and JPY down against the US dollars.

4. Using the daily chart, no rebound and that signifies that GBP will contiune to move south. EMA21 will be the first hurdle WMA5 will cross and if it does so, a good support line will be at EMA55 or 2.0250. Of course, the resistance line is still strongly entrench at 2.0450./2.0500

Using the 1 hour chart, EMA21 has managed to cross EMA200. A good indication of a further movement south is when EMA100 cross EMA200.Should this not occur, EMA200 or 2.0380 make a immediate resistance line and 2.0400 will indicate a breakout towards 2.0450/2.0500.

11 Oct 2007

1. There were already hints and rumors that Fed is again going to cut rate. Bernanke will speak this Friday.

The European govts have met, talking about the strength in Euro against the dollars - a sign of weakening it.

Today at Singapore time 2230hrs, US is going to announce Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims.

2. The US market has been rallying with yesterday, taking some profits. It points in general a good indication of a strong fundamental in the US economics, despite the credit woes that has attract too much media attention.

In addition, the Euro market close mix, with FSTE up 17 points.

3. Major currency climb high against the dollar yesterday, however, the strength was short live by the time the US market opens.

4. GBP break the 2.0450 resistance yesterday and threathen 2.0500. It tested 2.0500, but make a reverse during US market.

Using the daily chart, CCI indicator is mixed, a sign of GBP moving in a unsure direction. It seem to be making up towards the BB(14, 0.3) mark. A sure sign of rebound is when it clear the BB median line.

Using the 1 hour chart, a strong support line is build up at 2.0380. Should WMA5 and EMA21 clear pass that support, which is make up of both EMA100 and EMA200, a good breakout south will occur. However, GBP may rebound at the support line and try again to pass 2.0500.

9 Oct 2007

1. Last night at 2230hrs, Euro govt gathered to discuss about the strength of the Euro against the dollar.

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro softened, particularly against the dollar, as euro area finance ministers meet to discuss, among other topics, how to contain the strength of their common currency.In the run-up to the Ecofin meeting, held today and tomorrow, politicians have been vocal about the need to do something about the strength of the euro. Together, they will be drafting a policy stance to bring to the G7 meeting later this month, in an effort to make other currencies -- the US dollar, most notably -- to appreciate.

Also, GBP PPI continue to weaken.

As a result, yesterday the GBP came down from above 2.0420 to 2.0350.

Today at 1630hrs, theres is a news on GBP trade balance and Euro Central Bank chief Trichet will be speaking. At 2230, The Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the annual Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons. The report contains important insights such as spending levels, borrowing estimates, and GDP growth forecasts for the following year.

2. Overall, Europe market did a dip. US market close with little movement from Friday rally.

3. Against the dollars, EUR and CHF has reverse and weaken against the dollar. The Yen continue its weakening process but seem to slow down.

4. On the technical, from the daily chart, the GBP has reverse. The momentum should contiune and a good support line is at 2.0240, the EMA55 line. Upward movement is possible, but a strong resistance is felt at 2.0450, considering the GBP trying but fail to breakout of this line for the last 5 days.
On the 1 hour chat, clearly the EMA21 has cross the EMA200 and should move south. A good gauge will be at 2.0330 to observe whether a U-turn will occur, else it will be making today low.

8 Oct 2007

1. The Labor Department's report that employers added 110,000 jobs in September -- essentially what analysts had expected -- reassured Wall Street that the job market wasn't pulling back sharply as was feared a month ago (from yahoo). But on the contrary, GBP pull higher amidst the stock market rebound.

To me, this raise give false sense of the actual US economy. If the economy is truely performing, dollars will strengthen against the GBP. But not so. Therefore either GBP will fall or if really true, the US economy will show sign of weakening.

US holiday today and all news is from Europe.

Today, News of UK PPI at 1630hrs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.

2. US marker rallied on Friday. It will be a questioned for the Eupore market to have a rally.

3. Against the major currencies, the dollars show signs of weakening.

4. Using the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA200 or 2.0390. This is a good support and rebound for GBP. Aleternatively, a breakout north for GBP is at 2.0450. A breakout south is at 2.0340.

4 Oct 2007

News:
The Bank of England has announced that the interest rate has remain the same. Unlike the Fed that cut the rate, in order to ease the housing mortage woes, UK did not do so. And anyway, the attention to the credit market and the problem with Northern Rock has pass media attention.

Sterling would still be likely to weaken sharply if rates are cut as futures markets have certainly not priced this in. With the Bank of England did not do so, GBP jump up after the announcement of rate remaining at 5.75% by a 50 pips, then to another 50 pips.

US is announcing unemployment claims - but not likely to influence the movement of the GBP.

Therefore, with all things remain unchange, GBP with yesterday influence will contiune to inch up.


Stock Market:
The Europe stock market performed moderately with mix emotions. US made a slight inch up. Overall, thee showed no good indication which direction GBP is heading today.

Currency Bench mark:
Most of the makor currency has strengthen against the USD today, after the last fews days of weakening. The direction against USD may contiune.

Technical:
The 1 hour chart show sign of a continue strength for GBP to go up, with stron support from EMA100 and EMA200. Should EMA21 clear EMA55 and EMA100, the direction is sure.

However, the mix comes from the daily chart, Yes there is a rebound from yesterday, and the question is how high?

The first resistance line is 2.0430 (yesterday peak) and 2.0500 (Monday peak), with 2.0650 as the whole year peak.

Support is at 2.0355 (1hour EMA200) and a breakout south is at 2.0290 (after yesterday low, for the downward trend to contiune).

3 Oct 2007

There are not many major news in the European market that will move the GBP. So it will be a quiet afternoon. The US is announcing Non farm employment and Non manufacturing index. To know more goto www.forexfactory.com

The overall effect on GBP is not a sure one, but should the results show a worst off, GBP will go upwards.

The DOW is taking profit yesterday after Monday rally. Bad news was reported affecting sales and consumer confidence. Should the European market rally today, which it has not been so, despite both the Asian and US market being so, then GBP will move upwards.

The major currency has reverse against the USD. Will the trend contiune down?

Technically, CCI on a daily chart show a downward trend. Within the 1 hour chart, WMA5 is sandwich between EMA55 and EMA200. The movement is not a sure one.

Support is at 2.0350 and resistance at 2.0450

2 Oct 2007

There are no major news today. As such, the movement may not be wild today.

DOW clear 14,000 and a good rally in yesterday Wall street. Like wise, the European market did fairly with FTSE gaining a 0.6%.

Fundamental, with no major news to trigger movement, It is not expected to have any big rally again in either the Europe or the US market. People these days has become more cautious and take profit first.

Technically, the indication showed a higher probability of a downward movement. Using a 1 hour chart, WMA5 will move side way between EMA21/55 and EMA100. Unless, the intention is to catch any u and down movement, a breakout will be at 2.0330 and 2.0500.

1 Oct 2007

What happen on Friday during US market? The GBP suddenly shoot up. Is it an indication of the weakening of the US economy? Everyone is now expecting a slow down, after speeches from Ben Bernanke and President Bush.

The EUR, YEN and CHF has made stronger against the USD. It is a matter of time (which happen last Friday) before a strong breakout.

Technically, GBP can climb to the next high at 2.0700, which is the Fib retracement line. That will be a new high for GBP and a strong resistance line. GBP is indeed overbought (using CCI).

A short retracement is expected, using either the daily chart or the 1 hour chart. CCI has indicated a reversal. Using the daily chart, the support line is at EMA21 and using the 1 hours chart the support line is at EMA100. The price is estimated at 2.0390.

28 Sep 2007

Yesterday news end with mix turn out. New homes sales hit low, while unemployment claims saw a drop. The Dow inch up with moderate 34 points.

Over at the Euopean side, the market also end fairly yesterday.

I will expect the movement on the GBP as moderate, with no major news. However the UK consumer confidence may tell some sign of the UK economy.

Technically, using the daily chart, the GBP moved up. A resistance to watch is 2.0300, the next at 2.0458. CCI indicate a continue up trend, pushing for another overbought situation. If the last 2 days saw the formation of the B-wave, yesterday will mark the begining of the C-Wave up towards the resistance line.

The support line is at 2.0200 and 2.0180 if the WMA5 reverse and cross the EMA100 and EMA200 using the 1 hour chart

27 Sep 2007

3 major US news tonight:

GDP
Unemplyment claims
New House Sale

Is the US economy doing well as expected. Probably not. There is a strong chance that the news will bring the GBP up.

Technically, a flag was formed. The price can breakout in any direction. The price is at 2.0220 and 2.0050.

26 Sep 2007

Two news was announced yesterday: Actual Forecast Previous
10:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.50M 5.50M 5.75M

10:00pm USD Consumer Confidence 99.8 104.5 105.6

Both showed figures that is worst off than previous, confidence is worst than forecast. This shows a contrast to the economy spelling a recssionally pressure, as property is one of the main indicator for the economy. The Fed did what was right in lowering rates, but will that help the people to pay up their loans? As such, this thursday unemployment claims may tell another side of the story - are the poeple earning and have the capacity to pay.

Technically, if the UK economy remain status quo, WMA5 in the 1 hour chart has rebounded from EMA200. It went below my predicted line at 2.0124 and rebounded. The WMA5 should contiune to moved northward, ending the B-wave, before the next C-wave.

25 Sep 2007

The US economy is still enjoying the short term effect from the Fed cut. With housing sales this evening, it will add to another dimension to indicate how well the economy is going.

EUR and Swiss has been making high against the dollar, but somewhat the momentum is still strong.

Technically, GBP seem to be making a short retracement. Support is at 2.0124, before another northward climb.

24 Sep 2007

The upward momentum should continue, as there will not be any major news this week that will stop that north bound direction. On Tuesday - there will be a Home sales (but I don't think it will make big impact, even if the figure release is worse off, as this is more or less expected and interest rate has been reduced to solve this problem). On Thursday, there is a GDP , Unemployment claims.

Technically, 2.0115 gives a very good support line. WMA5 has sailed passed EMA55 and EMA21 is also showing momnetum to push through. There may be a dip on the CCI(34) indicator, but will not be below the median of the BB.

20 Sep 2007

Final the wait is over. Fed announced a half a percent cut in intrest rate. I will expect the northward climb of the GBPUSD until a major announcement of either UK/US economic news that will reverse the trend.

Take note of the news tonight at 2030 - US Unemployment claims. If the news show more claims than expected, the price may go southward.

Technically, looking at the daily chart. I will clamped the price between EMA100 and EMA200, that is 2.0130 and 1.9950. That is expect a breakout at 2.0180 or 1.9880, the two Fib retracement line calculated from 12 to 17 Sep 2007.

18 Sep 2007

Fundamentally, the US market data showed a pending recession, but according to Greenspan, the inflationary presseure is still there - by looking at the oil and gold prices. Would Fed raise or lower?

Personally, I believed Fed will lower it by a quarter point and that will not move the GBP/USD pair in any big movement.

Looking at the technical from the hourly chart, GBP has punch through the EMA200. It may go on further south to settle at the next support line at around 1.9835. From the daily chart, that's hitting the EMA55 line.

After which, I will expect a reversal.

13 Sep 2007

GBP seemed to be strongly resisted at around 2.0350.

Fundamentally, everyone is waiting, waiting for 18 Sep announcement.

I am expecting a continuation to whip saw between 2.0350 and EMA200.

Technically, I favour a short, I am now waiting for CCI(34) to go into overbrought and rebound into the very first BB(14,0.9). It may take these few days.

10 Sep 07

Should and will Fed reduce interest rate and by how much?

Last Friday, we saw another great fall in the stocks market and this time it was triggered by a mere loss of 4000 jobs instead of the expected 110000.

My personal feeling was that the last market woes on the sub-prime was due not to poor lending, but more fundamental - employment. Unemployment leads to loss of jobs and income and therefore a failure to repay loan or even take any re-financing scheme. The results will be more re-procession of housing and that will trigger a cycle of cuts and spending.

The Fed should reduce interest rate to save the high housing loans, but a reduction also signal the coming of a recession - how? Check mate?

Fundamentally, it now a wait and see game.

Short term, with the GBP go north last week, I will forsee a southward direction. It not my favour in any direction, but I believe the market will move cautiously and any movement in any direction will be offset very fast.

A good resistance line is at 2.0330 and a a good support at 1.9957.

7 Sep 2007

Frankly, I do not know how the market will go and it seem that all is waiting for Sep 18th for the Fed decision. Through I have been away for holiday this week, the market has not move significantly in any direction.

I still favour a long, knowing that long and believe the pound will hover between 2.0000 and 2.0300 for the next week.

31 Aug 2007

US Market shows mix feelings last night, though the European and Asian market traded stronger yesterday (profit taking). The market may show a mix today with everyone trading with caution.

In the daily chart, for GBPUSD a hammer was formed. WMA5 still sandwich between EMA55 and EMA100. Throughout the last 3 days the price has been moving side way. I am expecting a breakthrough. Using a fibonachi retracement, the support line is at 2.0200, above the EMA55 line, while the support is at 2.0013, below the EMA100 line. But even should the price fall below 2.0013, the next support line is at the EMA200 at 1.9900.

30 Aug 2007

GBPUSD - UP

I was wrong yesterday, profits taking take place in the midst of Tuesday freefall and despite the concerns of the spread of sub-prime woes.

Leading toward Feb interest rate announcement, I will expect the market to head north with an assurance that the rate is going to be cut.

Looking at the technicals, on a daily chart, WMA5 nows hover between EMA55 and EMA100. Both direction can go. If the last 2 days is the formation of the B-wave, I will expect a big breakout north today.

I will set the breakout for today at 2.0190 and 2.0010. The resistance is at 2.0330 and the support is at 1.9935.

29 Aug 2007

29 Aug - GBPUSD - Down

The Asian market as predicted, closed in the red. So are the European market. Wall Street after Feb FOMC meeting, plunged more than 280points.

Now with every banks taking stocks of their impact of the sub-prime woes and Feb refusal to confirm interest rate cut, I liken that for today, we will see more reds.

Using a daily chart, GBPUSD broke pass EMA55 and EMA100. It too sailed pass the support line as predicted yesterday at 2.0050. I expect the price to hit towards EMA200 with the first support line at 1.9916 and 1.9852. This is calculated using Fib Retracement from the last climb.

28 Aug 2007

GBPUSD broke the 2.01330 support, meaning that it will head south.

But I believe this as part of the B-wave retracement.

The next support is at 2.0050. Once this sail pass, WMA5 will also sail pass EMA100 and EMA55 on the daily chart. The price will find the next support at EMA200, which is approx at 1.9900.

The Asian and the European market did well yesterday, but not he DOW. I expect some profit taking this morning and this will drive GBPUSD further south.

27 Aug 2007

I believe GBP/USD will continue to be bullish.

Looking at the news that is coming up - FOMC on the 28 Aug. The feb will adjust the interest rate low to give a push in the economy. But fundamentally, the reason for doing so imply a weaker economy.

Technically, GBPUSD, using a daily chart, WMA5 has just clear EMA55 and EMA21 is still showing signs of going north.

I will put the support line at 2.0130 and expect a U-turn north. On the break out I have place long at 2.0210

Fundamentally why the Dollars is strengthen when the DOW is down

With reference from http://www.fxcm.com/analyze-currencies.jsp

Stock and the country currencies
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a high correlation between the performance of the US stock market and the USD (against the Euro). A rallying stock market in any part of the world provides an ideal investment opportunity for individuals regardless of geographic location and as a result there is a strong correlation between a country’s equity market and its currency. If the equity market is rising, investment dollars will flow in to seize the opportunity. Alternatively, falling equity makes will have domestic investors selling their shares to seize investment opportunities abroad.

Stock up -> Currency strengthen
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Interest Rates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the market has uncertainty regarding interest rates, then any bit of news regarding interest rates can directly affect the currency markets. Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen in relation to other countries, as investors shift assets to that country to gain a higher return. Hikes in interest rates, however, are generally bad news for stock markets. Some investors will transfer money out of a country's stock market when interest rates are hiked, believing that higher borrowing costs will affect ballance sheet negatively and result in devalued stock, causing the country's currency to weaken. Which effect dominates can be tricky, but generally there is a consensus beforehand as to what the interest rate move will do.

Interest Rate up -> Currency strengthen
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Unemployment Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The unemployment rate is a strong indicator of a country’s economic strength. When unemployment is high, the economy may be weak – and hence its currency may fall in value.

Unemplyment Rate up -> Currency weaken
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GBP for this coming week 29 July 2007

Firstly, solely on technicals. Cables may go lower. WMA5 has already cross EMA21 and will head towards EMA55. Using fabonacci retractment, the nxt support line is at 2.0206 - not very far away. If WMA5 cross EMA55, the next support will be at 2.0058. Else if WMA5 failed to cross EMA55, the price may rebound to 2.0390 and hovers between EMA21 and EMA55. On the CCI side, most likely CCI(34) will make a oversold condition hitting -150. A good buy time will be when CCA(34) enters the BB(14, 0.9) boundary.

What will then cause the GBP to move down below to 2.0058 or retrace above 2.0390. The news. There are a few big news this week. GBP CPI, US Unemployment Claims and US employment rate. With the recent DOW and the Asian market taking a big dip, this will also affect the prices outcome. If the these news sing in the same tune, you can expect a uni direction next week, else it will be a case of moving between the two price band.

16 July 2007

GU

The market may break in both direction. A price value of around 2.0446 as well as 2.0220.
Though strongly, in my own analysis, GU has taken a turn, but becare not to fall into the trap. If a short is desired, wait for the crossing of the signal CCI(34) on BB(14,0.3). Signal WMA3 has already cross WMA5, so just be patient and wait.

EU

It has make a good turn around, but again I will suggest to wait for CCI(100) to cross EMA(7). In fact, EU will follow the direction of GU today.

11 July

GU and EU forecast.

GU climbed and made new high, breaking the 2.0220 mark. My indicators show that there is more momentum to climb high. Yes indeed, I have to abandon the short position and change them to a long.

EU climbed high yesterday too, rebounded from 1.3600. I got 20pips from it, but failed to catch the long after it rebound. Today, I will expect it to go long like the pound.

10 July - GU and EU

I am still expecting the market to take a dip.

There will be a Trade Balance report on GBP today at 1630hrs Singapore Time. The outcome may bring the GBP in either direction. Yesterday PPI anouncement has brought up GBP up. As such I may have to take loss and abandon and short position if price clear pass the resistance level at 2.0200.

EU has made a dip and I will expect it to go south towards the first support line at around 1.3600.

9 July 2007 Forecast

The following forecast is based on Singapore Time, on GBP, EUR, JPY and USD

GBP/USD

The are no big news affecting GBP, except PPI. But in my opinion, with the expected increase in oil prices, PPI will increase, therefore the impact on GBP/USD will not be that great.

Looking at the technical chart:

I expect the GBP/USD to go south, I put no figure to take profit, but watch out when the price hit EMA21 on the daily chart or when CCI hit the first BB. When that happens, a reversal may take place and GBP/USD may take a new high.

EUR/USD

After 3 black crows and a big white, I expect the EUR to go side way. Similar, I expect a dip first before a big movement up.