8 May 2014; GBPUSD
As I write, the UK HPI -housing sales which is a leading indicator, was down and was at-0.2% instead of +0.8% forecast.
As a result, GU will hang at support at 1.696, then 1.692 before going to 1.688.
CCI indicate a over bought and with the data, the technical also support a down trend. The USD index showed a low for the year. Therefore after GU hit a high of around 1.700, it is some time for profit taking and reversal and consolidation.
Resistance is at 1.6980/ 1.6990.
Thursday, May 08, 2014
Wednesday, May 07, 2014
7 May 2014; GBPUSD
7 May 2014; GBPUSD
It is a good spike up to hit near 1.700 from a break at 1.690. The support is the better than expected news coming from Spain unemployment claim as well as UK PMI.
It is now a watch on whether the pound will clear 1.700 with 1.705 a resistance line. In the meanwhile, the support is now at 1.6960/ 1.6970. Then at 1.6920.
Sell at 1.6980 and take profit at 1.6970. But remove sell position when price hit 1.700.
Buy at either 1.6960 or 1.6920. A break below 1.6920 will gain the next support at 1.6880. 1.6830 is a strong support.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout up at 1.705 to buy and wait for break down at 1.6960.
It is a good spike up to hit near 1.700 from a break at 1.690. The support is the better than expected news coming from Spain unemployment claim as well as UK PMI.
It is now a watch on whether the pound will clear 1.700 with 1.705 a resistance line. In the meanwhile, the support is now at 1.6960/ 1.6970. Then at 1.6920.
Sell at 1.6980 and take profit at 1.6970. But remove sell position when price hit 1.700.
Buy at either 1.6960 or 1.6920. A break below 1.6920 will gain the next support at 1.6880. 1.6830 is a strong support.
Alternatively, wait for a breakout up at 1.705 to buy and wait for break down at 1.6960.
Tuesday, May 06, 2014
6 May 2014; GBPUSD
6 May 2014; GBPUSD
The news to watch is at 1630hrs SGT on UK PMI.
The pound has been going up with support at 1.686/ 1.686 (1 hour EMA200). The news will determine whether GU will ascend further towards 1.70/ 1.6990 the psychological level. Next is 1.720 / 1.718 the October 2008 resistance line.
UK has been doing well in its Purchasing Manager Index - It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
It has been above 50 and reaches a height of 60.5 in Sep 2013, but decline to 57.6 last month. The decline is gradual, but above 50 shows that the UK is still buying. In contrast, US PMI is also above 50 and now stands at 54.9 last month. The trend is that it is on the up since it drop to 51.3 in Jan 2014.
So both economy looks good. The stocks market indexes are moving up. UK is slowing down, US is steadying up, with UK buying more than US.
Most advice is to stand at the side line or favoured an attempt of the GU to hit 1.70.
GU reaches a new high of 1.692 last week, so a good sell is at 1.695, take profit fast but remove position if price breached 1.705. Even lower is at 1.6885 and take profit at 1.6876 (1 hour EMA 21/55 line support line)
Alternatively buy at 1 hour EMA200 line at 1.6860. If support is not breached then wait or release by batches the purchase at 1.6870, 1.6880 and 1.6890. Also wait and buy at daily EMA21 line at 1.6835.
If GU goes beyond 1.705 it is a break up else 1.682 is a break down.
The news to watch is at 1630hrs SGT on UK PMI.
The pound has been going up with support at 1.686/ 1.686 (1 hour EMA200). The news will determine whether GU will ascend further towards 1.70/ 1.6990 the psychological level. Next is 1.720 / 1.718 the October 2008 resistance line.
UK has been doing well in its Purchasing Manager Index - It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
It has been above 50 and reaches a height of 60.5 in Sep 2013, but decline to 57.6 last month. The decline is gradual, but above 50 shows that the UK is still buying. In contrast, US PMI is also above 50 and now stands at 54.9 last month. The trend is that it is on the up since it drop to 51.3 in Jan 2014.
So both economy looks good. The stocks market indexes are moving up. UK is slowing down, US is steadying up, with UK buying more than US.
Most advice is to stand at the side line or favoured an attempt of the GU to hit 1.70.
GU reaches a new high of 1.692 last week, so a good sell is at 1.695, take profit fast but remove position if price breached 1.705. Even lower is at 1.6885 and take profit at 1.6876 (1 hour EMA 21/55 line support line)
Alternatively buy at 1 hour EMA200 line at 1.6860. If support is not breached then wait or release by batches the purchase at 1.6870, 1.6880 and 1.6890. Also wait and buy at daily EMA21 line at 1.6835.
If GU goes beyond 1.705 it is a break up else 1.682 is a break down.
Monday, May 05, 2014
5 May 2014; GBPUSD
5 May 2014; GBPUSD
After a long break for holiday, it looks that GU made a climb and break out of its 1.680, then 1.6850 resistance line.
Accordingly, since Mar 24, GU has made the climb. The peak was reach just last Thursday. Using a Fib retracement on a daily chart the new resistance line is at 1.720. Given a large gap between now at 1.6875 to 1.7200, the intermediate resistance is at 1.692, then the psychological line at 1.700, then 1.7070.
What support the upward movement is that BoE monetary policy and the support for capital flow that is in favour for a long. Economic data releases has shown that UK is doing better. PMI releases tomorrow at 1630hrs SGT is a critical to continue supporting the upward trend.
On the technicals, GU has been largely overbought. There has no indicator that show a up. But neither does it show a down as CCI(34) on the daily moves side and no over bought.
As such, potential if GU goes down, it will be a good buy at 1.6854 (1hour EMA200) and at 1.6830 (daily EMA21). Or to buy or breakout at above 1.694. Take small profits and beware of resistance at 1.6875, 1.692 and 1.700.
Support is at the buying entry at 1.6854, 1.6830 and 1.6744 (Fib retracement and daily EMA55).
After a long break for holiday, it looks that GU made a climb and break out of its 1.680, then 1.6850 resistance line.
Accordingly, since Mar 24, GU has made the climb. The peak was reach just last Thursday. Using a Fib retracement on a daily chart the new resistance line is at 1.720. Given a large gap between now at 1.6875 to 1.7200, the intermediate resistance is at 1.692, then the psychological line at 1.700, then 1.7070.
What support the upward movement is that BoE monetary policy and the support for capital flow that is in favour for a long. Economic data releases has shown that UK is doing better. PMI releases tomorrow at 1630hrs SGT is a critical to continue supporting the upward trend.
On the technicals, GU has been largely overbought. There has no indicator that show a up. But neither does it show a down as CCI(34) on the daily moves side and no over bought.
As such, potential if GU goes down, it will be a good buy at 1.6854 (1hour EMA200) and at 1.6830 (daily EMA21). Or to buy or breakout at above 1.694. Take small profits and beware of resistance at 1.6875, 1.692 and 1.700.
Support is at the buying entry at 1.6854, 1.6830 and 1.6744 (Fib retracement and daily EMA55).
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