17 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
What do you have to say? GU attempt to break pass 1.6840-50 to set a new high from 2009!
Will it fail today or will it succeed leaving a trail this long weekend?
There will be retracement, but the price now hovers between 1.6810 and 1.6840 since last evening (SGT) till now.
As such, play when a break occurs.
Enter a buy if GU breaks 1.6850 and abandon position if the break up does not occur and price return to 1.6810. Take profit at the next resistance at the half way mark around 1.6950.
Enter a sell if GU breaks 1.6820 and abandon position if break down does not occur and price return to 1.6830. Take profit at next support at 1.6800, then 1.6750.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
16 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
16 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
I still maintain a down trend - with technicals from my CCI(14) coupled with BB(14, 0.9) and BB(14,1.2). The CCI is still in the BB region and has not exit after being over bought at 250 points.
It is a see-saw from the news. A "better" UK economic report at 1630hrs SGT yesterday and followed a decision by the Fed that US will maintain interest rate (a sign that the economy is still not ready for recovery).
The news force the pound to climb above 1.6730 and later to 1.6750. It did not break resistance at 1.6760.
Today at 1630hrs SGT we have UK claimant payout. It is expected that the UK to be doing better with less payout. Will that force the pound to climb and break resistance at 1.6760 - possible. If by doing so, the next level of resistance is at 1.6800 to 1.6820 region.
A failure to break above 1.6760 and a break below 1.6690 is the support at 1.6660. The price now is hover between 1.6740 and 1.6710.
From the 1 hour chart support is at EMA200 at 1.6710.
As such it will be a good wait for the news and see the direction. Alternative sell at around 1.6740 and buy around 1.6710 before the news and take small profits. Abandon position if a break occur at 1.6750 and below 1.6690.
If you are playing the 15 minutes using BB(14, 1.8), wait after the first candle after breakout. Again followed the abandon plan as mention above.
I still maintain a down trend - with technicals from my CCI(14) coupled with BB(14, 0.9) and BB(14,1.2). The CCI is still in the BB region and has not exit after being over bought at 250 points.
It is a see-saw from the news. A "better" UK economic report at 1630hrs SGT yesterday and followed a decision by the Fed that US will maintain interest rate (a sign that the economy is still not ready for recovery).
The news force the pound to climb above 1.6730 and later to 1.6750. It did not break resistance at 1.6760.
Today at 1630hrs SGT we have UK claimant payout. It is expected that the UK to be doing better with less payout. Will that force the pound to climb and break resistance at 1.6760 - possible. If by doing so, the next level of resistance is at 1.6800 to 1.6820 region.
A failure to break above 1.6760 and a break below 1.6690 is the support at 1.6660. The price now is hover between 1.6740 and 1.6710.
From the 1 hour chart support is at EMA200 at 1.6710.
As such it will be a good wait for the news and see the direction. Alternative sell at around 1.6740 and buy around 1.6710 before the news and take small profits. Abandon position if a break occur at 1.6750 and below 1.6690.
If you are playing the 15 minutes using BB(14, 1.8), wait after the first candle after breakout. Again followed the abandon plan as mention above.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
15 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
15 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
CCI (Daily) showed a down trend. Will there be any fundamentals that support the trend?
At 1630hrs, UK is reporting is inflation numbers (CPI) and in a likely beat, the number will be down and thus drawing a possible reversal in the trend.
Coupled at 1700hrs SGT, the German economic sentiments is also expect to improve.
As such, it will be nice to wait for the release of the news before a entry.
GU break the support at 1.6717 and now hovers in the region between 1.6680 and 1.6710 (1 hour EMA200). If the price breaks 1.6680 with the news release (failed to meet expectation), GU will hit towards 1.6660 then 1.6630. A support sustain by the daily EMA21 and EMA55 respectively.
On the up trend support is at 1.6720 then 1.6760 (Daily chart Fib retracement).
A good entry will be after the news release and wait for the price to break below 1.6680 to 1.6670. A shot down to the next support at 1.6660-1.6630 to take profit.
On the other hand, a break above 1.6730 (clear all EMA from 1 hour chart) with the entry after the news. Take profit at resistance line 1.6745 to 1.6760.
CCI (Daily) showed a down trend. Will there be any fundamentals that support the trend?
At 1630hrs, UK is reporting is inflation numbers (CPI) and in a likely beat, the number will be down and thus drawing a possible reversal in the trend.
Coupled at 1700hrs SGT, the German economic sentiments is also expect to improve.
As such, it will be nice to wait for the release of the news before a entry.
GU break the support at 1.6717 and now hovers in the region between 1.6680 and 1.6710 (1 hour EMA200). If the price breaks 1.6680 with the news release (failed to meet expectation), GU will hit towards 1.6660 then 1.6630. A support sustain by the daily EMA21 and EMA55 respectively.
On the up trend support is at 1.6720 then 1.6760 (Daily chart Fib retracement).
A good entry will be after the news release and wait for the price to break below 1.6680 to 1.6670. A shot down to the next support at 1.6660-1.6630 to take profit.
On the other hand, a break above 1.6730 (clear all EMA from 1 hour chart) with the entry after the news. Take profit at resistance line 1.6745 to 1.6760.
Monday, April 14, 2014
14 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
14 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
With an attempt for the GU but failed to break above 1.6850 (a high in 2009), GU will find its retracement to the Fib level at 1.6757 then 1.6717. It look like a support is formed at 1.6720 region.
There is no major news in the afternoon to break the price above or below the support. It will then be in the evening during US trading period to look out for 2030hrsSGT US retail sales.
In an event if the price is sustained above 1.6700, then the GU will hovers in the region towards 1.6800. Else if the price breaks below 1.6680, GU will hit towards support at 1.6650.
CCI daily is set on a down trend mode. After over bought at 150 (>250), CCI enters the BB(14, 1.2) and also BB(14, 0.9). To further support the down trend, we need some fundamentals. The meeting from the bankers in Europe caution that not all economy are on the ways to recovery. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. -CNBC
The stock market opens with caution - Asian market is mixed and the European market open down. This was after last week sell off.
As such, a sell is favoured, butas the support is near 1.6717, a rebound is possible. As such sell at around 1.6740-1.6750 and take small profits or wait for break out below 1.6700 to sell and take profit at support around 1.6680.
With an attempt for the GU but failed to break above 1.6850 (a high in 2009), GU will find its retracement to the Fib level at 1.6757 then 1.6717. It look like a support is formed at 1.6720 region.
There is no major news in the afternoon to break the price above or below the support. It will then be in the evening during US trading period to look out for 2030hrsSGT US retail sales.
In an event if the price is sustained above 1.6700, then the GU will hovers in the region towards 1.6800. Else if the price breaks below 1.6680, GU will hit towards support at 1.6650.
CCI daily is set on a down trend mode. After over bought at 150 (>250), CCI enters the BB(14, 1.2) and also BB(14, 0.9). To further support the down trend, we need some fundamentals. The meeting from the bankers in Europe caution that not all economy are on the ways to recovery. Debt markets think the euro zone debt crisis is over and are "underpricing" the risks, Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, has warned. -CNBC
The stock market opens with caution - Asian market is mixed and the European market open down. This was after last week sell off.
As such, a sell is favoured, butas the support is near 1.6717, a rebound is possible. As such sell at around 1.6740-1.6750 and take small profits or wait for break out below 1.6700 to sell and take profit at support around 1.6680.
Friday, April 11, 2014
11 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
11 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
Daily CCI indicate a potential down. However, caution has to be taken as the CCI though over bought has not cut the BB(14, 1.2) line. There are news today at 2030hrs on US PPI (Producer Price Index) and at 2155hrs SGT, US Consumer sentiments.
GU has hit high at 1.6820. Will it climb higher? If yes, I set the resistance at 1.6850. That if upon breaking through it will go higher to 1.6950 (a half way mark between 1.7050 and 1.6850. This will be the new region for GU should it break 1.6850 barrier.
Support is at 1.6680, a large gap to go. Intermediate support is at 1.6760 (1 hour EMA55), 1.6725 (1 hour EMA 100) and then 1.6680 which is also 1 hour EMA200.
Trade selling GU when it reach 15min high outside BB(14, 1.8) and take small profits. Buy at intermediate support and also take small profits. Do not leave open position before the US news.
Daily CCI indicate a potential down. However, caution has to be taken as the CCI though over bought has not cut the BB(14, 1.2) line. There are news today at 2030hrs on US PPI (Producer Price Index) and at 2155hrs SGT, US Consumer sentiments.
GU has hit high at 1.6820. Will it climb higher? If yes, I set the resistance at 1.6850. That if upon breaking through it will go higher to 1.6950 (a half way mark between 1.7050 and 1.6850. This will be the new region for GU should it break 1.6850 barrier.
Support is at 1.6680, a large gap to go. Intermediate support is at 1.6760 (1 hour EMA55), 1.6725 (1 hour EMA 100) and then 1.6680 which is also 1 hour EMA200.
Trade selling GU when it reach 15min high outside BB(14, 1.8) and take small profits. Buy at intermediate support and also take small profits. Do not leave open position before the US news.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
19 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
19 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
From last night FOMC, the US economy is still on the stage of recovery and not quite what Ms Yellen said earlier that rates is going raise soon (an indication of a better to do economy). On the other hand UK manufacturing products on Tuesday surprises all with a large positive gain - a return from negative zone. The 2 combination pushes GU up to a high that has not seen for the last 3 years.
What's next? Obvious resistance at 1.6800 - 1.6850. Will there be some consolidation?
In a likely case, there will be some consolidation around the resistance line, with the daily CCI pointing a an over bought position. Support is at 1.678 - 1.674, a half way mark between the Fib retracement line. So it is always good to find a buy around support and sell at resistance.
New today will come from UK 1900hrs SGT official bank rates. Then at 2030hrs SGT US unemployment claims.
If a break occurs above 1.6850 and is able to hold, it is good to abandon sell position and take buy towards the next resistance at 1.6950, the 50% mark between the Fib retracement line. Next level of support is at 1.6680, so again abandon buy when 1.674 line is breach.
From last night FOMC, the US economy is still on the stage of recovery and not quite what Ms Yellen said earlier that rates is going raise soon (an indication of a better to do economy). On the other hand UK manufacturing products on Tuesday surprises all with a large positive gain - a return from negative zone. The 2 combination pushes GU up to a high that has not seen for the last 3 years.
What's next? Obvious resistance at 1.6800 - 1.6850. Will there be some consolidation?
In a likely case, there will be some consolidation around the resistance line, with the daily CCI pointing a an over bought position. Support is at 1.678 - 1.674, a half way mark between the Fib retracement line. So it is always good to find a buy around support and sell at resistance.
New today will come from UK 1900hrs SGT official bank rates. Then at 2030hrs SGT US unemployment claims.
If a break occurs above 1.6850 and is able to hold, it is good to abandon sell position and take buy towards the next resistance at 1.6950, the 50% mark between the Fib retracement line. Next level of support is at 1.6680, so again abandon buy when 1.674 line is breach.
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
8 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
8 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
GU shot up and out of the hourly EMA200 and hit resistance at 1.6620. There are no news to support the action and in my opinion the price will most likely return to at least the EMA200 at 1.6600.
There are 1 UK news today - 1630hrs SGT UK manufacturing production. The news may send the pound higher than 1.6620 towards 1.6650 or end back at resistance level at 1.6605 then 1.6580.
Technically, CCI(14) at daily chart indicate a probability of the pound on the down trend.
GU shot up and out of the hourly EMA200 and hit resistance at 1.6620. There are no news to support the action and in my opinion the price will most likely return to at least the EMA200 at 1.6600.
There are 1 UK news today - 1630hrs SGT UK manufacturing production. The news may send the pound higher than 1.6620 towards 1.6650 or end back at resistance level at 1.6605 then 1.6580.
Technically, CCI(14) at daily chart indicate a probability of the pound on the down trend.
Monday, April 07, 2014
7 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
7 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
Is it the end of the down trend? From the daily CCI(14), it has exit the BB(14, 1.2), meaning an end. It now enter a phase of consolidation with a possible of reversal or a further down.
The UK economy performed relative weaker than the US last week. Today with little news to back any movement, I am expecting the GU to move side.
The price range is confined by daily EMA21/EMA55 as the resistance and daily EMA100 as the support. The price is respectively at 1.6600 and 1.652.
From the hour chart, it is around 1.6585 (EMA100) and 1.6560. Take small profits in either direction and enter trade around the resistance and support level.
Is it the end of the down trend? From the daily CCI(14), it has exit the BB(14, 1.2), meaning an end. It now enter a phase of consolidation with a possible of reversal or a further down.
The UK economy performed relative weaker than the US last week. Today with little news to back any movement, I am expecting the GU to move side.
The price range is confined by daily EMA21/EMA55 as the resistance and daily EMA100 as the support. The price is respectively at 1.6600 and 1.652.
From the hour chart, it is around 1.6585 (EMA100) and 1.6560. Take small profits in either direction and enter trade around the resistance and support level.
Friday, April 04, 2014
4 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
4 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
There is only a major news on US non-farm employment change at 2030hrsSGT. Unless the change is significant, else I am expecting the GU to move side way today.
After the UK Service PMI yesterday at 1630hrsSGT, GU went down below the resistance at 1.6600.
Daily CCI continues to point to a down trend. Support at 1.6580 (Daily EMA55), then 1.6530 (Daily EMA100).
Resistance at 1.6615 (1 hour chart EMA200, as well as Fib Retracement). Next level resistance at 1.6650.
Do catch a good sell at resistance line. If doing buy, remember it is down trend so take small profits.
Because in a likely case today that GU is moving side, the price range is 1.6600 and 1.6580, it is possible to trade within this range. But remember to release position before news time in order not to be caught in a wrong position.
There is only a major news on US non-farm employment change at 2030hrsSGT. Unless the change is significant, else I am expecting the GU to move side way today.
After the UK Service PMI yesterday at 1630hrsSGT, GU went down below the resistance at 1.6600.
Daily CCI continues to point to a down trend. Support at 1.6580 (Daily EMA55), then 1.6530 (Daily EMA100).
Resistance at 1.6615 (1 hour chart EMA200, as well as Fib Retracement). Next level resistance at 1.6650.
Do catch a good sell at resistance line. If doing buy, remember it is down trend so take small profits.
Because in a likely case today that GU is moving side, the price range is 1.6600 and 1.6580, it is possible to trade within this range. But remember to release position before news time in order not to be caught in a wrong position.
Thursday, April 03, 2014
3 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
3 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
On Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI is down, on Wednesday Construction PMI is down. Also the US non-farm employment change is positive. Overall the effect is a confirmation that the GU is on a down trend. Technical chart showed the CCI reverse and enter the daily BB(14, 0.9) - a good indicator in sync with the fundamental that GU is down.
Today we have UK service PMI at 1630 hrs SGT. According to forexcrunch which suggest the following
Support at 1.6620-1.6630 and next at 1.6580.
On Tuesday UK Manufacturing PMI is down, on Wednesday Construction PMI is down. Also the US non-farm employment change is positive. Overall the effect is a confirmation that the GU is on a down trend. Technical chart showed the CCI reverse and enter the daily BB(14, 0.9) - a good indicator in sync with the fundamental that GU is down.
Today we have UK service PMI at 1630 hrs SGT. According to forexcrunch which suggest the following
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 50.0 to 56.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 56.1 to 60.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 60.0. The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome could prop up the GBP, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: 47.0 to 49.9: A reading below the 50-point level indicates contraction, and could push the pound below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below 47.0: A very weak reading could push see GBP/USD break through a second support level.
Support at 1.6620-1.6630 and next at 1.6580.
Wednesday, April 02, 2014
2 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
2 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
From the daily chart, GU has reached over bought - CCI above 100, the trend reverse and entered BB(14, 1.2) and further cuts BB(14, 0.9). It is a good indicate of a down trend. Further the 1 hour chart saw a dispersion with the EMA21 nows lies between EMA55 and EMA100.
Looking at the news - the Fed is not going to stay put. Ms Yellen mentioned that the US economy is still not on the path of recovery. As such not much effect will come from the US. A speech from BoE governor
Mark Carney, in his roles as chairman of the Financial Stability Board: Financial markets should prepare for higher interest rates Emerging markets have coped relatively well to date, with occasional bouts of turbulence US in early stages of normalization
A first good indication that the UK economy is performing better than US. A second confirmation will comes today at 1400hrs SGT on UK Nationwide HPI - a housing indicator, followed by UK construction PMI at 1630SGT. This will helps or otherwise distort the confirmation of a GU down trend.
Good sell is at the resistance - 1.6645- 1.6650 (Fib retracement from 1-hour chart). If resistance is taken further down at 1.6635 it will be based on the 1-hour chart EMA100. Further up is at 1.6700.
Support is at 1.6615 -20 (1 hour chart EMA200), then 1.6590 (Daily chart EMA21/EMa55). Support will become resistance if broken.
If you buy - take small profits.
From the daily chart, GU has reached over bought - CCI above 100, the trend reverse and entered BB(14, 1.2) and further cuts BB(14, 0.9). It is a good indicate of a down trend. Further the 1 hour chart saw a dispersion with the EMA21 nows lies between EMA55 and EMA100.
Looking at the news - the Fed is not going to stay put. Ms Yellen mentioned that the US economy is still not on the path of recovery. As such not much effect will come from the US. A speech from BoE governor
Mark Carney, in his roles as chairman of the Financial Stability Board: Financial markets should prepare for higher interest rates Emerging markets have coped relatively well to date, with occasional bouts of turbulence US in early stages of normalization
A first good indication that the UK economy is performing better than US. A second confirmation will comes today at 1400hrs SGT on UK Nationwide HPI - a housing indicator, followed by UK construction PMI at 1630SGT. This will helps or otherwise distort the confirmation of a GU down trend.
Good sell is at the resistance - 1.6645- 1.6650 (Fib retracement from 1-hour chart). If resistance is taken further down at 1.6635 it will be based on the 1-hour chart EMA100. Further up is at 1.6700.
Support is at 1.6615 -20 (1 hour chart EMA200), then 1.6590 (Daily chart EMA21/EMa55). Support will become resistance if broken.
If you buy - take small profits.
Tuesday, April 01, 2014
1 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
1 Apr 2014; GBPUSD
GU hit resistance line at 1.6680. This create another resistance at 1.6700 if 1.6680 is breached, based on the daily BB(14,2).
Will the GU goes up further or lower. With Ms Yellen speech, it looks like QE is not going to change much. The US stock market rally.
The news on UK PMI at 1630hrs may affect the direction. The upside has 1.668 to 1.670 while the downside is supported by daily EMA21 at 1.663-1.662. CCI(14) indicate a trend with a potential to swing down. But news does affect direction.
For today, a good sell will be around 1.668 and above (if it is before the news) while a buy at around 1.663 to 1.662 is good. Again as CCI(14) is in a no trend - take small profit.
At current and for the whole morning, price is confine by BB(14, 1.8) using a 15min chart. Wait and see the reaction after the first breakout candle, before entering trade.
GU hit resistance line at 1.6680. This create another resistance at 1.6700 if 1.6680 is breached, based on the daily BB(14,2).
Will the GU goes up further or lower. With Ms Yellen speech, it looks like QE is not going to change much. The US stock market rally.
The news on UK PMI at 1630hrs may affect the direction. The upside has 1.668 to 1.670 while the downside is supported by daily EMA21 at 1.663-1.662. CCI(14) indicate a trend with a potential to swing down. But news does affect direction.
For today, a good sell will be around 1.668 and above (if it is before the news) while a buy at around 1.663 to 1.662 is good. Again as CCI(14) is in a no trend - take small profit.
At current and for the whole morning, price is confine by BB(14, 1.8) using a 15min chart. Wait and see the reaction after the first breakout candle, before entering trade.
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