31 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
A quick view on the daily chart shows that the up trend of the GU (pound) has plateaued. Will the trend reverse or continue its up trend?
This week, starting on Monday, Ms Yellen is speaking tonight. The message probably has effect on how the intention to raise rates is confirmed by the actual ground data that the US economy is doing well or otherwise. We have unemployment claims on Thursday and unemployment rates on Friday.
What will the EU and UK followed the actions of the Fed? Thursday we have the EU bid rates, ECB conferences.
Today, accordingly to the daily EMA21 which set the support at 1.6600 and 1.6685 the resistance (daily BB(14, 2) ). CCI(14) has flatten - so in a likely case the price will move side in a range of 1.6620 (1 hour chart EMA21) and 1.6660 or otherwise within the support and resistance. So it will be a good to trade buying around 1.660 and 1.6620 and take small profits, abandoning buy position if price goes below 1.6580. Likewise a sell within 1.6650 and 1.6670 and take small profits, abandoning sell position when price goes above 1.6685.
Caution: watch out for news announcement and wait to see if there is disruption of trend above or below the daily support or resistance.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Friday, March 28, 2014
28 Mar 2014; Trading GBPUSD
28 Mar 2014; Trading GBPUSD
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.com and http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
I have been trading this pair and this pair for the last many years.
1. Trading style:
Day trade - I trade daily - that is if possible close the trade before I sleep.
Monthly closure - all open trades should be closed on the last Friday of the month, for accounting purposes and also to enable starting afresh for each month.
2. Determine the trend - direction for the day
I used both fundamentals and technical to have a "feel" of the trend. By trend, the pair will move up, down or side for at least a couples of days or a week or two.
Fundamentals information can be obtained from www.forexfactory.com or your preferred sites. I used http://finance.yahoo.com and http://money.cnn.com. I need to have a feel through reading the data and news to gauge as to whether the UK (sometimes Europe) economies are doing better or worse than the US. Monetary policies (money supplies) and interest rates affect the movement.
Technical analysis I used a daily chart from Oanda. The indicators I used are
BB(14, 2) and BB(14, 1.2). It gives a feel of the trend. In theory, when the price reach the boundary lines of the BB, a reversal will follows. A shot out of the BB indicate a break out (that is the trend will not reverse and will likely to continue in the same direction)
WMA(5), EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200. The application is based on a method developed by David Kolachi. It is useful when used both on the daily chart and the 1 hour chart to find support and resistance as well as if the trend is moving side way or an impending breakouts.
CCI(14) coupled with BB(0.9) and BB(1.2). This is my stochastic oscillator. Useful and gives confidence when to hold to position or when that position is to gave up. It also points to when a reversal might takes place.
With all said, together with both technical and fundamental, use your judgement and with confidence or no confidence what the trend should be. That will determine the way you trade for that day.
3. Using CCI to determine trend
I used the CCI(14) to give confidence to the type of trends.
Up trend - when the CCI is oversold (more than -150) and cuts the first BB line. This trend will continue until the CCI exit the top BB line and until the line change gradient. There are times where more than 2 over sold occur. Therefore do not enter with a show hand. I recommend a quarter at a time. Exit long position when gradient reverse (after exiting top most BB line).
Down trend - the opposite of up trend.
Unknown (sometime go into side way) - is a region when the CCI exits the top most (or the bottom most) BB line and the gradient reverse till the CCI enters the BB line again.
4. Determine the entry
Once I decided it is going to be up, down or side, I will find the good entry. Entry is also affected by timing. for example, you may do a buy just minutes before a big data news announcement and find yourself caught in a wrong direction.
I enter a trade based on support and resistance - using 1 hour chart with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100 and EMA200 noting Kolachi method.
Normally, the reversal will take place at the resistance or the support, but once is goes beyond the resistance or support region, a breakout occur and the trend will continue. The resistance becomes support and the support becomes resistance line. Therefore know these bounds so that you know when to let go if breakout happens.
Using a 15min chart, I use technical BB(1.8). I normally entered at the 15min mark and after a major news announcement (not 15 min before). Once the candle exit the BB, I will enter a trade. If the position is in the same trend as you have determined during the day or the entry is at a good support or resistance, even is the position is not in your favor, I can still hold.
Happy trading.
28 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
28 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
As mentioned in last week post, the pound is going for a uptrend. It starts to reverse at 1.6460 and has hit a high at 1.6650. The indicator that helps predict this is the daily CCI(14) coupled with two BB around it with 0.9 and 1.2. An oversold occur and when the CCI hits the first BB band, it is a good buy till the CCI exit the top most BB and the CCI gradient reverse (which has yet to).
The first buy was on the 14 Mar around the price of 1.6620 (a quarter of my available margin) and a second buy on 24 Mar around 1.6480.
I can still wait for the reverse signal, but as it is nearing the end of the month, the opportunity came to close the first buy at 1.6642 and half of the second buy at 1.6600. I am leaving the rest for the reverse signal or till the last Friday of the month which is today.
It is a 2 weeks of roller coaster. The first was Ms Yellen speech and indication that the Fed rates will rises on the 20 Mar. This brought the pound down. It was followed by a series of better to do US unemployment claims but contradicted US homes sales . So it gives ground to continue to support a buy.
The week 23 Mar open with the UK CPI maintain low at 1.7%. The boost came from the UK retail data which indicate a good confidence than expected.
Today, we have one big news on the UK current money supply at 1730hrs SGT. It is directly linked to currency demand and is expected to continue a rising trend in surplus which indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in UK.
As such it is still a good buy, but because it is nearing the end of the uptrend (CCI is out of the BB) a reversal is possible. Using Fib retracement, the support is at 1.6575 (50%) which is also the daily EMA21 and EMA55 (merging two lines indicating strong support). As such a good buy region.
On the sell side, resistance is at around 1.6680/ 1.6700, the half way between Fib Retracement.
As mentioned in last week post, the pound is going for a uptrend. It starts to reverse at 1.6460 and has hit a high at 1.6650. The indicator that helps predict this is the daily CCI(14) coupled with two BB around it with 0.9 and 1.2. An oversold occur and when the CCI hits the first BB band, it is a good buy till the CCI exit the top most BB and the CCI gradient reverse (which has yet to).
The first buy was on the 14 Mar around the price of 1.6620 (a quarter of my available margin) and a second buy on 24 Mar around 1.6480.
I can still wait for the reverse signal, but as it is nearing the end of the month, the opportunity came to close the first buy at 1.6642 and half of the second buy at 1.6600. I am leaving the rest for the reverse signal or till the last Friday of the month which is today.
It is a 2 weeks of roller coaster. The first was Ms Yellen speech and indication that the Fed rates will rises on the 20 Mar. This brought the pound down. It was followed by a series of better to do US unemployment claims but contradicted US homes sales . So it gives ground to continue to support a buy.
The week 23 Mar open with the UK CPI maintain low at 1.7%. The boost came from the UK retail data which indicate a good confidence than expected.
Today, we have one big news on the UK current money supply at 1730hrs SGT. It is directly linked to currency demand and is expected to continue a rising trend in surplus which indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in UK.
As such it is still a good buy, but because it is nearing the end of the uptrend (CCI is out of the BB) a reversal is possible. Using Fib retracement, the support is at 1.6575 (50%) which is also the daily EMA21 and EMA55 (merging two lines indicating strong support). As such a good buy region.
On the sell side, resistance is at around 1.6680/ 1.6700, the half way between Fib Retracement.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
20 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
20 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
From last night FOMC, Janet Yellen set the tone for a time period of 6 months after the bond buying program, first half of 2015. The effect of an intended interest rate raise imply a better performing economy. The Fed has been buying back the bonds it issue after 2008 or what it called qualitative easing. Rates has been kept at zero, but stubbornly, the unemployment indicator has not been going done.
The words by Yellen sent the pound a big swing downwards - an indication of a USD strengthening for an implied better to come US economy. Is is going to be short lived before the pound rebound again?
UK economy is doing well, so if the expectation of the UK economy performing better, the pound will rebound.
From the technical, the pound is support by its daily EMA100, down from EMA55 after last night Fed speech. Support at EMA55 at 1.660 is breached and now support is at 1.6500.
Looking at the CCI(14) on the daily basis, the trend is upward. In fact the pound has been over bought. The indicator which is used to buy or sell in the longer term, first indicate a buy at last Friday at price 1.6650. As such if you look at it, it is a good time still to buy, probably around 1.6500 and 1.6530. Resistance is at 1.6600.
Watch out for today US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and existing Homes sales at 2200hrs SGT. This will indicate what is the actual ground effect of the US economy - whether has it really on the road to recovery as the Fed claim so that interest rate should start raising.
From last night FOMC, Janet Yellen set the tone for a time period of 6 months after the bond buying program, first half of 2015. The effect of an intended interest rate raise imply a better performing economy. The Fed has been buying back the bonds it issue after 2008 or what it called qualitative easing. Rates has been kept at zero, but stubbornly, the unemployment indicator has not been going done.
The words by Yellen sent the pound a big swing downwards - an indication of a USD strengthening for an implied better to come US economy. Is is going to be short lived before the pound rebound again?
UK economy is doing well, so if the expectation of the UK economy performing better, the pound will rebound.
From the technical, the pound is support by its daily EMA100, down from EMA55 after last night Fed speech. Support at EMA55 at 1.660 is breached and now support is at 1.6500.
Looking at the CCI(14) on the daily basis, the trend is upward. In fact the pound has been over bought. The indicator which is used to buy or sell in the longer term, first indicate a buy at last Friday at price 1.6650. As such if you look at it, it is a good time still to buy, probably around 1.6500 and 1.6530. Resistance is at 1.6600.
Watch out for today US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and existing Homes sales at 2200hrs SGT. This will indicate what is the actual ground effect of the US economy - whether has it really on the road to recovery as the Fed claim so that interest rate should start raising.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
19 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
19 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
A number of important UK news at 1730SGT - UK Claimant paymout, unemployment rate.
The pound has been confined within the daily EMA21 which act as a intermediate resistance at 1.6660.
Daily CCI pointed to a up trend, given that the pound did not break south below the support at daily EMA55 around 1.660.
As such, if the fundamentals are right about the UK economy, then a breakout north would occur. The pound has not break the 1.68 mark, which the EUR did the 1.39. The next resistance is at 1.67
Of course, a break south is possible with the support at 1.652.
A number of important UK news at 1730SGT - UK Claimant paymout, unemployment rate.
The pound has been confined within the daily EMA21 which act as a intermediate resistance at 1.6660.
Daily CCI pointed to a up trend, given that the pound did not break south below the support at daily EMA55 around 1.660.
As such, if the fundamentals are right about the UK economy, then a breakout north would occur. The pound has not break the 1.68 mark, which the EUR did the 1.39. The next resistance is at 1.67
Of course, a break south is possible with the support at 1.652.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
18 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
18 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
It will be a day of uptrend. Price line entered CCI on the daily chart and will continue a trend up.
The EUR make a new high yesterday - indicating a better economic recovery. Will it continue high? Watch the outcome for Ger Economic Sentiment at 1800hrs SGT which will spur momentum for the EUR to go further high or reverse. The pound will follow.
The pound is confined within EMA21 and EMA55 - 1.6600 and 1.6660.
A number of US news in the evening - but like last night - good expected results spike GBP and not USD. It seems that USD the safe haven is slowly being abandon. As such in the current situation, better than expected news on either in UK, EUR or US will spike the GBP.
A good buy will be at the support around 1.660 to 1.662. Ride the up wave.
It will be a day of uptrend. Price line entered CCI on the daily chart and will continue a trend up.
The EUR make a new high yesterday - indicating a better economic recovery. Will it continue high? Watch the outcome for Ger Economic Sentiment at 1800hrs SGT which will spur momentum for the EUR to go further high or reverse. The pound will follow.
The pound is confined within EMA21 and EMA55 - 1.6600 and 1.6660.
A number of US news in the evening - but like last night - good expected results spike GBP and not USD. It seems that USD the safe haven is slowly being abandon. As such in the current situation, better than expected news on either in UK, EUR or US will spike the GBP.
A good buy will be at the support around 1.660 to 1.662. Ride the up wave.
Monday, March 17, 2014
17 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
17 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
Based on indicator - a long in GBP. Daily CCI pointed to an oversold position and it is a good time to buy.
Not looking at an news which can disrupt the price, the purchase for long will be based on support lines - 1.6615 - 1.660.
Any pick in this range and wait for the indicator CCI to reverse.
There are news - with the world watching the outcome of Ukraine situation. That stops the "good" news in Europe recovery to stall.
Resistance is at 1.6650.
Looking at the daily EMA21 and EMA55 - the price tapered. As such, but not expecting it to happen today - a breakout below 1.6580 and a breakout above 1.6670.
Based on indicator - a long in GBP. Daily CCI pointed to an oversold position and it is a good time to buy.
Not looking at an news which can disrupt the price, the purchase for long will be based on support lines - 1.6615 - 1.660.
Any pick in this range and wait for the indicator CCI to reverse.
There are news - with the world watching the outcome of Ukraine situation. That stops the "good" news in Europe recovery to stall.
Resistance is at 1.6650.
Looking at the daily EMA21 and EMA55 - the price tapered. As such, but not expecting it to happen today - a breakout below 1.6580 and a breakout above 1.6670.
Friday, March 14, 2014
14 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
14 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
From my technical charts, the pound is in for a upward trend. Strong support is at 1.660. CCI(14) indicate an oversold. From Oanda order, there is also more long orders below the price.
US market reveal data that shows a recovering economy. The unemployment claims drop more than expected. - But that does not explain why the USD move up against the pound. The release of the US news in fact pull the pound down from the afternoon high of 1.6710 and back to 1.660. - Giving an opportunity to buy.
Now the question is when to enter a good buy to ride the CCI(14) wave before a break out of the BB(14, 1.2). A good suggest price is the support line at 1.660-1.6620.
Depends on the news that comes from US PPI at 2030hrs GST - to buy at a lower price or wait for a break north confirmation.
The next support is at 1.650, resistance at 1.668
From my technical charts, the pound is in for a upward trend. Strong support is at 1.660. CCI(14) indicate an oversold. From Oanda order, there is also more long orders below the price.
US market reveal data that shows a recovering economy. The unemployment claims drop more than expected. - But that does not explain why the USD move up against the pound. The release of the US news in fact pull the pound down from the afternoon high of 1.6710 and back to 1.660. - Giving an opportunity to buy.
Now the question is when to enter a good buy to ride the CCI(14) wave before a break out of the BB(14, 1.2). A good suggest price is the support line at 1.660-1.6620.
Depends on the news that comes from US PPI at 2030hrs GST - to buy at a lower price or wait for a break north confirmation.
The next support is at 1.650, resistance at 1.668
Thursday, March 13, 2014
13 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
13 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
The US market finish side ways. It seems that the market is cautious about the commodity prices which has fallen - that reflect the lower demand from China - a further indication that the Chinese economies is slowing down.
In the UK, the numbers of house buyers slowed.
As such - GBPUSD pair moved side way.
Daily WMA5 entered EMA21 and EMA55 and hover between these lines which acts as resistance and support.
Today, watch out for US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and that may determine and move the pound above or below EMA21 or EMA55.
In the meanwhile, the expectation is a reversal based on CCI(14). There is no indication of reversal yet. As such, the price is expect to hover between 1.665 and 1.658
The US market finish side ways. It seems that the market is cautious about the commodity prices which has fallen - that reflect the lower demand from China - a further indication that the Chinese economies is slowing down.
In the UK, the numbers of house buyers slowed.
As such - GBPUSD pair moved side way.
Daily WMA5 entered EMA21 and EMA55 and hover between these lines which acts as resistance and support.
Today, watch out for US unemployment claims at 2030hrs SGT and that may determine and move the pound above or below EMA21 or EMA55.
In the meanwhile, the expectation is a reversal based on CCI(14). There is no indication of reversal yet. As such, the price is expect to hover between 1.665 and 1.658
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
12 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
12 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
GBPUSD is supported at 1.660, rebound and now hovers between 1.660 and 1.665.
The US stock markets was in red yesterday after weak China news. Commodities were down. But the good news is that US job creation remains good.
Today there will be lack of news. No news from the UK except EUR industrial outputs at 1800hrsSGT.
With the support and resistance clearly ranged from 1.660 and 1.665 by daily EMA21 and EMA55. It will be a good trading within the range if the price is kept within these range. That is a good sell around 1.666 and a good buy around 1.662.
But also expect breakout above these price lines and so, it is good to abandon any open position. The new support and resistance is at 1.650 and 1.673.
Daily CCI(34) shows no indication of a over sold and suggest a continued down trend. Likewise daily CCI(14) shows no clear sign of a up trend reversal.
GBPUSD is supported at 1.660, rebound and now hovers between 1.660 and 1.665.
The US stock markets was in red yesterday after weak China news. Commodities were down. But the good news is that US job creation remains good.
Today there will be lack of news. No news from the UK except EUR industrial outputs at 1800hrsSGT.
With the support and resistance clearly ranged from 1.660 and 1.665 by daily EMA21 and EMA55. It will be a good trading within the range if the price is kept within these range. That is a good sell around 1.666 and a good buy around 1.662.
But also expect breakout above these price lines and so, it is good to abandon any open position. The new support and resistance is at 1.650 and 1.673.
Daily CCI(34) shows no indication of a over sold and suggest a continued down trend. Likewise daily CCI(14) shows no clear sign of a up trend reversal.
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
11 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
11 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
US stocks dip due to poor China economic results. Coupled with the poor news from France Industrial production, it all brings the pound back from the high of 1.68 to 1.66. Or simple from the technical point of view, a reason for profit taking after hitting the resistance line.
FOMC in last night speech by Plosser said that the US economy will grow and unemployment rate to decline. The effect is a stronger USD after this morning poorer than expect UK BRC retail sales monitor.
Now the pound is sustained on the support line 1.662 and 1.660 happened to be the daily EMA55. Few major news will determine whether the price hit 1.66 or swing back above EMA21 at 1.667.
The news to watch are UK Inflation and Manufacturing.
At the current price is bounded 1.6635 and 1.6650. Therefore expecting a breakout in either direction. If GBP goes north the resistance is at 1.670 which is also the hourly EMA200 line. Support is at 1.660 and 1.657.
It will be a good sell at 1.670 and expect a retrace back to 1.667. A break south at 1.660 will be a good sell to 1.657 before any buy at 1.657.
Daily CCI(34) continues to be flat with a break south pending and there is no indication of reversal. So there is a possibility the poorer than expected news the afternoon will continue the south-bound direction.
US stocks dip due to poor China economic results. Coupled with the poor news from France Industrial production, it all brings the pound back from the high of 1.68 to 1.66. Or simple from the technical point of view, a reason for profit taking after hitting the resistance line.
FOMC in last night speech by Plosser said that the US economy will grow and unemployment rate to decline. The effect is a stronger USD after this morning poorer than expect UK BRC retail sales monitor.
Now the pound is sustained on the support line 1.662 and 1.660 happened to be the daily EMA55. Few major news will determine whether the price hit 1.66 or swing back above EMA21 at 1.667.
The news to watch are UK Inflation and Manufacturing.
At the current price is bounded 1.6635 and 1.6650. Therefore expecting a breakout in either direction. If GBP goes north the resistance is at 1.670 which is also the hourly EMA200 line. Support is at 1.660 and 1.657.
It will be a good sell at 1.670 and expect a retrace back to 1.667. A break south at 1.660 will be a good sell to 1.657 before any buy at 1.657.
Daily CCI(34) continues to be flat with a break south pending and there is no indication of reversal. So there is a possibility the poorer than expected news the afternoon will continue the south-bound direction.
Monday, March 10, 2014
10 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
10 Mar 2014; GBPUSD
The pound hit the resistance last week at around 1.68. Friday high was 1.6786. It retreat back to 1.672.
Today, I am expecting Europe to continue to post good economic news from the French and Italian government. This will help to maintain EUR as well as the pound to sustain and attempt the resistance line again. The trigger that may affect is at 2215SGT when MPC member speaks about the UK economy.
On the political side, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict with the US getting their hands into the war, it may gave the USD a good bet as a safe haven, as usual for major political and finance happening. It will be a good excuse for those betting on the USD to rise and for those who wants to take profit for the EUR and GBP.
Looking at the technical for clues - resistance line continues to be at 1.68. If a case of breakout occur and is able to sustain a good bet is to buy the pound and take profit at a new high above 1.71- 1.72 region!
CCI(34) shows a great tapering - meaning a pending breakout. The range has been kept at 1.680 and 1.658. As the price is now hovering at 1.673, a good sell will be at 1.677-1.679 and a good buy will be at 1.662 (both at the daily fib support as well as the daily EMA55 line). The mid line to take profit is at 1.668 which happens to be the daily EMA21 line).
If a break out below 1.660, prepare to sell the pound and expect the support line at 1.650.
The pound hit the resistance last week at around 1.68. Friday high was 1.6786. It retreat back to 1.672.
Today, I am expecting Europe to continue to post good economic news from the French and Italian government. This will help to maintain EUR as well as the pound to sustain and attempt the resistance line again. The trigger that may affect is at 2215SGT when MPC member speaks about the UK economy.
On the political side, with the Ukraine-Russia conflict with the US getting their hands into the war, it may gave the USD a good bet as a safe haven, as usual for major political and finance happening. It will be a good excuse for those betting on the USD to rise and for those who wants to take profit for the EUR and GBP.
Looking at the technical for clues - resistance line continues to be at 1.68. If a case of breakout occur and is able to sustain a good bet is to buy the pound and take profit at a new high above 1.71- 1.72 region!
CCI(34) shows a great tapering - meaning a pending breakout. The range has been kept at 1.680 and 1.658. As the price is now hovering at 1.673, a good sell will be at 1.677-1.679 and a good buy will be at 1.662 (both at the daily fib support as well as the daily EMA55 line). The mid line to take profit is at 1.668 which happens to be the daily EMA21 line).
If a break out below 1.660, prepare to sell the pound and expect the support line at 1.650.
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