GBP/USD Analysis:
The British economy is still growing despite a surge of disappointing economic data. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that GDP grew by 0.3 per cent between December and February, compared with the preceding three-month period.
If the economy maintains momentum this month, economic growth for the first quarter of the year would match GDP in the final quarter of 2009.
But NIESR said that although the recession was over, the country would not rebuild total economic output to the levels seen before the slowdown for another two years, leaving the country in "a period of depression" until then.
Containerized trade volumes in and out of the U.S. softened alongside seasonal demand at several major ports in January, but compared to a year ago, broader trends of rebounding exports and stabilizing imports are surfacing, according to port officials.
Overall, it means a shift to the dollars for safety as UK struggles on both ends.
The 1 hour chart shows the WMA5 in between EMA21 and EMA55. A sign of unsure direction contained between 1.4985 and 1.4964. A break in this resistance and support will bring the price to the next level at 1.501 and 1.488.
My expectation: Both Eur and GBP is unsure. Daily chart show formation of doji. Trade and take small profit and ready to let go if direction is against you.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
10 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The Euro was down early as traders took a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven recovery in the economy as one of the reasons for the weakness. They are worried that the European Central Bank faces too many upcoming challenges regarding growth and inflation to trigger a reasonable appreciation in the Euro.
We have news today 1730hrs UK Manufacturing Production. Production surprised with a nice rise of 0.9% last month, and is now predicted to get back to slower growth – 0.3%. Note that the Industrial Production figure contains manufacturing (80%) and other sectors, but the manufacturing number is eyed.
A better than expected results may give the pound a boost towards 1.503. The pound has attempt to break EMA21 on the 1 hour chart, but failed. It may attempt today.
If failed, the pound may revert back to support level at 1.49 then 1.48.
My expectation: The pound will be traded in range between 1.48 and 1.50, generally it still show sign of bearish.
The Euro was down early as traders took a more cautious view of the Euro Region economy now that the fiscal problems in Greece have subsided. Traders are citing the possibility of an uneven recovery in the economy as one of the reasons for the weakness. They are worried that the European Central Bank faces too many upcoming challenges regarding growth and inflation to trigger a reasonable appreciation in the Euro.
We have news today 1730hrs UK Manufacturing Production. Production surprised with a nice rise of 0.9% last month, and is now predicted to get back to slower growth – 0.3%. Note that the Industrial Production figure contains manufacturing (80%) and other sectors, but the manufacturing number is eyed.
A better than expected results may give the pound a boost towards 1.503. The pound has attempt to break EMA21 on the 1 hour chart, but failed. It may attempt today.
If failed, the pound may revert back to support level at 1.49 then 1.48.
My expectation: The pound will be traded in range between 1.48 and 1.50, generally it still show sign of bearish.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
9 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
A strong dollar rally came into the mid-session of US trading as traders backed away from higher risk assets. Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the catalyst behind the weakness in the Euro. Merkel said that a Greek bailout is not on the table and pointed toward the no bailout rule in the European Union agreement as the reason behind her comment.
Another reason for the mid-session weakness in the Euro may have been comments from Greek Prime Minister Papadreou who hinted that he’d be willing to turn toward the International Monetary Fund for help if the EU didn’t come through with financial aid. His comments were most likely designed to light a fire under the EU to take action sooner.
The pound was heading towards 1.52, before the rally, dropping the pound by almost a 160 pips.
The British Pound continues to remain the weakest currency because of the poor U.K. economy, the widening budget deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
From the technicals, dispersion in the upwards direction has disappear and now from the 1 hour chart, both WMA5 and EMA21 has gone below EMA100 and EMA55. Even EMA55 is appearing weak and clearing EMA100.
Support is at 1.50/1.49 region. Moving further will be breaking 1.478, going to 1.45 region.
Resistance is at 1.508, ten 1.513.
My expectation: Its a empty news day. The pound may range within 1.500 and 1.508. The only news is at 1730hrs, UK Trade balance. The British deficit rose to 7.3 billion last month, and it’s now expected to drop back to to 6.9. A deficit in trade balance is normal for Britain.
A strong dollar rally came into the mid-session of US trading as traders backed away from higher risk assets. Comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the catalyst behind the weakness in the Euro. Merkel said that a Greek bailout is not on the table and pointed toward the no bailout rule in the European Union agreement as the reason behind her comment.
Another reason for the mid-session weakness in the Euro may have been comments from Greek Prime Minister Papadreou who hinted that he’d be willing to turn toward the International Monetary Fund for help if the EU didn’t come through with financial aid. His comments were most likely designed to light a fire under the EU to take action sooner.
The pound was heading towards 1.52, before the rally, dropping the pound by almost a 160 pips.
The British Pound continues to remain the weakest currency because of the poor U.K. economy, the widening budget deficit, a dovish monetary policy and political uncertainty.
From the technicals, dispersion in the upwards direction has disappear and now from the 1 hour chart, both WMA5 and EMA21 has gone below EMA100 and EMA55. Even EMA55 is appearing weak and clearing EMA100.
Support is at 1.50/1.49 region. Moving further will be breaking 1.478, going to 1.45 region.
Resistance is at 1.508, ten 1.513.
My expectation: Its a empty news day. The pound may range within 1.500 and 1.508. The only news is at 1730hrs, UK Trade balance. The British deficit rose to 7.3 billion last month, and it’s now expected to drop back to to 6.9. A deficit in trade balance is normal for Britain.
Monday, March 08, 2010
8 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The week end with a surprise recover of the pound back and above 1.515.
Today will be a quiet day with no major European news. SO its all technical.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, showed the pound on a break up above EMA200. However, the daily chart showed a resistance at EMA21 at 1.524.
Euro has too recover from its low of 1.34 to 1.37. The pound will mostly likely make a high towards resistance.
On the down side, support is at 1.514/12 region, before any break down towards 1.507
The week end with a surprise recover of the pound back and above 1.515.
Today will be a quiet day with no major European news. SO its all technical.
Looking at the 1 hour chart, showed the pound on a break up above EMA200. However, the daily chart showed a resistance at EMA21 at 1.524.
Euro has too recover from its low of 1.34 to 1.37. The pound will mostly likely make a high towards resistance.
On the down side, support is at 1.514/12 region, before any break down towards 1.507
Friday, March 05, 2010
5 Mar 2010
GDP/USD Analysis:
The U.S. Dollar was up sharply against all major currencies as investors flocked to safer assets following a poor housing report and concerns about Greece’s ability to shore up its budget deficit. More the most part, it was a quiet trade on Thursday as many big Forex players stood on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
The UK MPC said it was maintaining its stock of asset purchases at £200bn, and held interest rates at 0.5pc . Both decisions were expected.
GBP saw a back off its recovery high at 1.5129 on Thursday, its recovery tone set from the 1.4782 level, its 2010 low continues to be maintained. It fell below 1.506 and went to a yesterday low of 1.503, before recovering back to 1.505.
Yesterday Analysis: The pound did not maintain the price at 1.517 and 1.506. It hit high at 1.513, break 1.506 and dive to 1.503.
Today expectation: A good support is at 1.503, then 1.500/1.4900. It nows has its EMA21 breaking EMA55 in the 1 hour chart. I expected the EMA21 to break down further.
On the high side, resistance is at 1.506, then 1.5100.
If afternoon news at 1730hrs SGT on UK PPI, Britain’s producer prices are expected to calm down after rising by 2% last month (PPI Input). Given the rise in consumer prices, the expected rise of 0.1% in the upcoming decision could be exceeded with a higher number. If that is the case, I am expecting the price to hit support at around 1.503 and rebound to resistance, before yelding gain in the US trading time.
The U.S. Dollar was up sharply against all major currencies as investors flocked to safer assets following a poor housing report and concerns about Greece’s ability to shore up its budget deficit. More the most part, it was a quiet trade on Thursday as many big Forex players stood on the sidelines ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
The UK MPC said it was maintaining its stock of asset purchases at £200bn, and held interest rates at 0.5pc . Both decisions were expected.
GBP saw a back off its recovery high at 1.5129 on Thursday, its recovery tone set from the 1.4782 level, its 2010 low continues to be maintained. It fell below 1.506 and went to a yesterday low of 1.503, before recovering back to 1.505.
Yesterday Analysis: The pound did not maintain the price at 1.517 and 1.506. It hit high at 1.513, break 1.506 and dive to 1.503.
Today expectation: A good support is at 1.503, then 1.500/1.4900. It nows has its EMA21 breaking EMA55 in the 1 hour chart. I expected the EMA21 to break down further.
On the high side, resistance is at 1.506, then 1.5100.
If afternoon news at 1730hrs SGT on UK PPI, Britain’s producer prices are expected to calm down after rising by 2% last month (PPI Input). Given the rise in consumer prices, the expected rise of 0.1% in the upcoming decision could be exceeded with a higher number. If that is the case, I am expecting the price to hit support at around 1.503 and rebound to resistance, before yelding gain in the US trading time.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
4 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound inched a notch up yesterday during US trading hours. Price range was hovering bwtween 1.500 and 1.508, before it break resistance at 1.508 and stayed above it.
Today at 2000hrs SGT, The Bank of England will announce later whether it will raise interest rates, but is expected to keep the cost of borrowing at a record low of 0.5%. The Bank is also expected to say it will not pump any more money into the economy under its quantitative easing (QE) programme, for now at least. Last month, the Bank said it was halting the programme, having spent £200bn to boost the economy. It added the programme may be extended in the future, if needed.
Before at 1700hrs, UK Halifax HPI a leading housing indicator, because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. It is expected to improve from last month result.
Technically, the pound beat EMA55 at the 1 hour chart and managed to stay above it at 1.500/1.502. During US trading hours, EMA21 beat resistance and EMA100. The pound now stays above EMA100 at 1.508.
The Euro on the other hand has get rid of dispersion and look as if it is going bullish. The Euro rose to its highest level since February 17th as shorts covered positions after Greece announced additional budget cuts and tax increases in an attempt to shore up its budget and gain favors from the European Union.
Greece’s new plan to take control of its fiscal problems drew positive comments from Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker who said “Greece’s ambitious program to correct its fiscal imbalances is now credibly on track.”
It look like the pound is set in a bullish tone. Resistance is hampered at EMA200 at 1.517.
A good support is at 1.508/06 region. Felling beyond 1.506, may return the pound to its bearish sentiments and the next support is at 1.500.
Yesterday prediction: Accurate that the pound range within 1.500 and 1.508, before US trading hours to zoom past 1.508 to 1.512, before returning to 1.508.
Today Expectation: Price range within 1.506 and 1.517. Potential to retrace to 1.517 based on Fib on 19 Jan 2010 peak to 1 Mar low.
The pound inched a notch up yesterday during US trading hours. Price range was hovering bwtween 1.500 and 1.508, before it break resistance at 1.508 and stayed above it.
Today at 2000hrs SGT, The Bank of England will announce later whether it will raise interest rates, but is expected to keep the cost of borrowing at a record low of 0.5%. The Bank is also expected to say it will not pump any more money into the economy under its quantitative easing (QE) programme, for now at least. Last month, the Bank said it was halting the programme, having spent £200bn to boost the economy. It added the programme may be extended in the future, if needed.
Before at 1700hrs, UK Halifax HPI a leading housing indicator, because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. It is expected to improve from last month result.
Technically, the pound beat EMA55 at the 1 hour chart and managed to stay above it at 1.500/1.502. During US trading hours, EMA21 beat resistance and EMA100. The pound now stays above EMA100 at 1.508.
The Euro on the other hand has get rid of dispersion and look as if it is going bullish. The Euro rose to its highest level since February 17th as shorts covered positions after Greece announced additional budget cuts and tax increases in an attempt to shore up its budget and gain favors from the European Union.
Greece’s new plan to take control of its fiscal problems drew positive comments from Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker who said “Greece’s ambitious program to correct its fiscal imbalances is now credibly on track.”
It look like the pound is set in a bullish tone. Resistance is hampered at EMA200 at 1.517.
A good support is at 1.508/06 region. Felling beyond 1.506, may return the pound to its bearish sentiments and the next support is at 1.500.
Yesterday prediction: Accurate that the pound range within 1.500 and 1.508, before US trading hours to zoom past 1.508 to 1.512, before returning to 1.508.
Today Expectation: Price range within 1.506 and 1.517. Potential to retrace to 1.517 based on Fib on 19 Jan 2010 peak to 1 Mar low.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
3 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
UK consumer confidence in February rose for the second consecutive month to hit its highest level since January 2008, according to the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey. This news at 0801hrs SGT gave a boost to the pound, raising it above 1.500, hitting high at 1.5048.
Looking at its counterpart, the Euro cleared the 1 hour chart EMA200 and recovered from its low to hit back at 1.365 from 1.343.
Has traders forgotten the Greece problem? Or is this an opportunity for risk taking? Or a major retracement is on the way?
Yesterday analysis: In fact the whole day, the pound has been hovering around 1.485 and 1.495 as expected. The up movement only start this morning.
Today expectation: With UK service PMI release at 1730hrs SGT, the services sector, which includes the financial services sector, has seen improvement, rising above 56 points but then dropping to 54.5 last month. It’s predicted to edge up to 55 points, showing stability.
Potentially, the pound which now hover above EMA21 (1 hour chart), may break EMA55 to meet resistance at 1.508, than 1.519.
Support on the other hand is at 1.487, which breaking this may sent a big C-wave down to 1.43.
Price range may be contain within 1.500 and 1.508, which means that the pound will continue its way up. The decision for any direction will depends on Europe opening or the UK news. The new direction may be set during US opening.
UK consumer confidence in February rose for the second consecutive month to hit its highest level since January 2008, according to the Nationwide Consumer Confidence survey. This news at 0801hrs SGT gave a boost to the pound, raising it above 1.500, hitting high at 1.5048.
Looking at its counterpart, the Euro cleared the 1 hour chart EMA200 and recovered from its low to hit back at 1.365 from 1.343.
Has traders forgotten the Greece problem? Or is this an opportunity for risk taking? Or a major retracement is on the way?
Yesterday analysis: In fact the whole day, the pound has been hovering around 1.485 and 1.495 as expected. The up movement only start this morning.
Today expectation: With UK service PMI release at 1730hrs SGT, the services sector, which includes the financial services sector, has seen improvement, rising above 56 points but then dropping to 54.5 last month. It’s predicted to edge up to 55 points, showing stability.
Potentially, the pound which now hover above EMA21 (1 hour chart), may break EMA55 to meet resistance at 1.508, than 1.519.
Support on the other hand is at 1.487, which breaking this may sent a big C-wave down to 1.43.
Price range may be contain within 1.500 and 1.508, which means that the pound will continue its way up. The decision for any direction will depends on Europe opening or the UK news. The new direction may be set during US opening.
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
2 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
The pound fell by almost 300 pips, hitting low at 1.48, before regaining back to 1.500. Now it stand at 1.49 for the first time in nearly a year amid fears that Britain will be left with a weak government unable to cut spending and balance the budget.
Fears that no party would gain an overall Commons majority led to warnings that the pound was “staring into the abyss” and would fall further still.
The new support is 1.452, another 300 pips down. Today, given at 1730 UK Construction PMI, contrary to the prices of homes and PMI in manufacturing, purchasing managers in the construction sector are still pessimistic. The figure is expected to edge up from 48.6 to 48.9 points, still under 50. This may be a trigger point for pound to sink further.
Resistance is at 1.498 then 1.506.
Yesterday expectation: The pound hit and sank below 1.500.
Today expectation: Price range to hover between 1.485 and 1.495, till Europe news are release which may sent the pound further to the next level of support at around 1.47/1.46
The pound fell by almost 300 pips, hitting low at 1.48, before regaining back to 1.500. Now it stand at 1.49 for the first time in nearly a year amid fears that Britain will be left with a weak government unable to cut spending and balance the budget.
Fears that no party would gain an overall Commons majority led to warnings that the pound was “staring into the abyss” and would fall further still.
The new support is 1.452, another 300 pips down. Today, given at 1730 UK Construction PMI, contrary to the prices of homes and PMI in manufacturing, purchasing managers in the construction sector are still pessimistic. The figure is expected to edge up from 48.6 to 48.9 points, still under 50. This may be a trigger point for pound to sink further.
Resistance is at 1.498 then 1.506.
Yesterday expectation: The pound hit and sank below 1.500.
Today expectation: Price range to hover between 1.485 and 1.495, till Europe news are release which may sent the pound further to the next level of support at around 1.47/1.46
Monday, March 01, 2010
1 Mar 2010
GBP/USD Analysis:
With news at 1730hrs SGT on UK Manufacturing PMI, and 1800hrs SGT on Euro unemployment looming for not better than expected result, it look like the pound is not going anywnere north.
My expectation is foreign exchange markets are likely to keep up the pressure on sterling, until they see the detailed tax and spending plans of whatever government takes power.
Support is at 1.500, with resistance at 1.520, then 1.525. The pound is likely to go south today unless a stronger than expected news push it up to and above 1.525.
With news at 1730hrs SGT on UK Manufacturing PMI, and 1800hrs SGT on Euro unemployment looming for not better than expected result, it look like the pound is not going anywnere north.
My expectation is foreign exchange markets are likely to keep up the pressure on sterling, until they see the detailed tax and spending plans of whatever government takes power.
Support is at 1.500, with resistance at 1.520, then 1.525. The pound is likely to go south today unless a stronger than expected news push it up to and above 1.525.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)