Reported at 0900hrs SGT
GY
Looking at the WMA5 and the price from the daily chart. WMA5 is between EMA21 and EMA100, but price is saturated at EMA100 at 206.2.
How will the movement be?
A possible case is that WMA5 will hit EMA100 and that brings the price up to 206.4- 206.8 (based on peak on 22 May and 7 May) before making a reverse. Else it will be a shoot towards EMA200 at 208 (half way point)
Support is at 205.5 (Fib Retracement) and 204.4 (EMA21)
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Monday, May 26, 2008
26 May 2008
Reported at 0800hrs
GY
Looking at the daily chart, WMA5 again failed to punch through EMA100 and now hangs in between EMA100 and EMA21/EMA55.
Naturally EMA100 at 205.8 gives the resistance line while both EMA21 and EMA55 hold the support at 204.1
The question is that which direction will it go? GY may take a dip towards EMA21/55 (may hit 203.3 - Fib retracement) before bounce off towards EMA100.
GY
Looking at the daily chart, WMA5 again failed to punch through EMA100 and now hangs in between EMA100 and EMA21/EMA55.
Naturally EMA100 at 205.8 gives the resistance line while both EMA21 and EMA55 hold the support at 204.1
The question is that which direction will it go? GY may take a dip towards EMA21/55 (may hit 203.3 - Fib retracement) before bounce off towards EMA100.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
24 May 2008
I was busy lately.
I will too be away for a week, 24-31 May to Yunnan.
I was told that blog may be block in China and as such I will not be able to update.
I brought my computer with me, but the main purpose of this trip is more God related. Pray along with me for a safe trip as well as that God will show me more about Him and what He has intended for me.
I will too be away for a week, 24-31 May to Yunnan.
I was told that blog may be block in China and as such I will not be able to update.
I brought my computer with me, but the main purpose of this trip is more God related. Pray along with me for a safe trip as well as that God will show me more about Him and what He has intended for me.
Monday, May 19, 2008
19 May 2008
Reported at 1000hrs SGT
GY
Looking at the daily chart.
WMA5 attempt to clear EMA100 again. It was supported at 203.3 (Fib retracement line). Will it be able to punch through?
If it can, it will reach EMA100 at 206.0. But before the Fib Line at 204.4, which is also after EMA21 and EMA55.
On the other, failing the support at 203.3, will bring GY to 202.0 (Fib Line)
GY
Looking at the daily chart.
WMA5 attempt to clear EMA100 again. It was supported at 203.3 (Fib retracement line). Will it be able to punch through?
If it can, it will reach EMA100 at 206.0. But before the Fib Line at 204.4, which is also after EMA21 and EMA55.
On the other, failing the support at 203.3, will bring GY to 202.0 (Fib Line)
Saturday, May 17, 2008
17 May 2008
How I do daily market assessment?
I was very busy recently and as a result I was not writing and updating. I will be blogging the recent happening in www.phfamily.blogspot.com. Pray along with me.
1) What is the general trend?
Fundamental
The need for this answer will help you decide whether it is good to play long or short.
The answer can be found in reading news from www.forexfactory.com and http://finance.yahoo.com/
forexfactory shows you the results of the news as well as what are the news that are coming up.
yahoo shows you how the equity market, commodity market, the general news that make headline.
It will take you sometime to find co-relationship between the news and the trend. Give it a try and journal down each day on your prediction and write down why do you predict that direction. Over time, as you go through your journal, you may observe those prediction that was made correctly and what are the news and results that made you say so. Soon, I will say that by experience, you will attain what I called 'trader instinct'.
Technical
The general trend can also be predicted based on technical charts.
I used both the daily chart and the 1-hour chart, coupled with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100, EMA200, CCI.
CCI show you the continuous trend and it is for you to predict whether the trend will continue and be reverse. This prediction combines with the gradient of the CCI, the pass and current level of the CCI.
WMA5 and the EMAs from daily chart gives support and resistance level. Somtimes Fibonacci retracement is very useful.
For example, WMA5 has been going up for the last few days and is nearing EMA200. My prediction is that there will be a resistance at EMA200 and therefore the trend of going up may be halt and potentially a reversal
2. Where to enter trade?
After your expectation of the trend, there are four possible outcome:
Long breakout
Long reversal
Short breakout
Short reversal
Breakout means that after that support or resistance level, the price will strongly continue to go in that direction.
Reversal means that after hitting the support or resistance level, the price will rebound and reverse in direction.
I use the EMAs and Fibonacci retracment (somtimes with some Eillot Wave theory) to help me decide where can I enter my trade. You will need to understand some Psychology of Trade to observe how the WMA5 behave with the EMAs.
Again journal your decisions - why you enter the trade at that level..
I use both daily chart, but mainly the 1-hour chart to help me place my trade.
3. Where to exit trade?
Again the understanding in Psychology of Trade and your prediction in (1) and (2) will allow you to place your Take Profit (or exiting the trade).
But BUT BUT the method I play does not put Stop Loss. I use a very strict Money Management.
For the moment, place only long trade with no stop loss AND the total margin committed in all your combine open transactions be less than 20% of your trading capital.
4. Journal
Journal your trade - why you enter the trade with the above three reasons.
Happy trading - it should not take you more than half an hour a day.
I was very busy recently and as a result I was not writing and updating. I will be blogging the recent happening in www.phfamily.blogspot.com. Pray along with me.
1) What is the general trend?
Fundamental
The need for this answer will help you decide whether it is good to play long or short.
The answer can be found in reading news from www.forexfactory.com and http://finance.yahoo.com/
forexfactory shows you the results of the news as well as what are the news that are coming up.
yahoo shows you how the equity market, commodity market, the general news that make headline.
It will take you sometime to find co-relationship between the news and the trend. Give it a try and journal down each day on your prediction and write down why do you predict that direction. Over time, as you go through your journal, you may observe those prediction that was made correctly and what are the news and results that made you say so. Soon, I will say that by experience, you will attain what I called 'trader instinct'.
Technical
The general trend can also be predicted based on technical charts.
I used both the daily chart and the 1-hour chart, coupled with WMA5, EMA21, EMA55, EMA100, EMA200, CCI.
CCI show you the continuous trend and it is for you to predict whether the trend will continue and be reverse. This prediction combines with the gradient of the CCI, the pass and current level of the CCI.
WMA5 and the EMAs from daily chart gives support and resistance level. Somtimes Fibonacci retracement is very useful.
For example, WMA5 has been going up for the last few days and is nearing EMA200. My prediction is that there will be a resistance at EMA200 and therefore the trend of going up may be halt and potentially a reversal
2. Where to enter trade?
After your expectation of the trend, there are four possible outcome:
Long breakout
Long reversal
Short breakout
Short reversal
Breakout means that after that support or resistance level, the price will strongly continue to go in that direction.
Reversal means that after hitting the support or resistance level, the price will rebound and reverse in direction.
I use the EMAs and Fibonacci retracment (somtimes with some Eillot Wave theory) to help me decide where can I enter my trade. You will need to understand some Psychology of Trade to observe how the WMA5 behave with the EMAs.
Again journal your decisions - why you enter the trade at that level..
I use both daily chart, but mainly the 1-hour chart to help me place my trade.
3. Where to exit trade?
Again the understanding in Psychology of Trade and your prediction in (1) and (2) will allow you to place your Take Profit (or exiting the trade).
But BUT BUT the method I play does not put Stop Loss. I use a very strict Money Management.
For the moment, place only long trade with no stop loss AND the total margin committed in all your combine open transactions be less than 20% of your trading capital.
4. Journal
Journal your trade - why you enter the trade with the above three reasons.
Happy trading - it should not take you more than half an hour a day.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
15 May 2008
Reported at 0800hr
GJ
WMA5 headed towards EMA21 and EMA55. This pose a strong resistance and may trigger a rebounce of WMA5. A good support is found in 203.5 (EMA200 1 hour chart). Then 202.2 (Fib retracement).
Should WMA5 punch through EMA21 and EMA55, it will meet resistance at EMA100 (daily chart) at 206.2.
GJ
WMA5 headed towards EMA21 and EMA55. This pose a strong resistance and may trigger a rebounce of WMA5. A good support is found in 203.5 (EMA200 1 hour chart). Then 202.2 (Fib retracement).
Should WMA5 punch through EMA21 and EMA55, it will meet resistance at EMA100 (daily chart) at 206.2.
Monday, May 12, 2008
12 May 2008
Reported at 1100hrs SGT
GJ
Looking at the daily chart, CCI though did not go into a oversold, but clearly there was a sign od reversal. Gradient of the CCI has weakened, therefore showing signs of a reversal.
Support is at 200.0, looking at how on last Friday and this morning the low were.
Resistance is at 202 (Fib retracement 9 May low and 2 May high), then 203.3 (Fib retracement) then 204.4 (EMA21, EMA55)
GJ
Looking at the daily chart, CCI though did not go into a oversold, but clearly there was a sign od reversal. Gradient of the CCI has weakened, therefore showing signs of a reversal.
Support is at 200.0, looking at how on last Friday and this morning the low were.
Resistance is at 202 (Fib retracement 9 May low and 2 May high), then 203.3 (Fib retracement) then 204.4 (EMA21, EMA55)
Friday, May 09, 2008
9 May 2008
Reported at 0730hrs SGT
GJ
After a day of drop, which pushed WMA5 way below EMA21, EMA55, GJ was supported at 203.0 and 202.6. The struggle was evident in the 1 hour chart with 202.6 tested 3 times yesterday.
Will the down trend continue?
Looking at the daily chart, CCI has yet to go into oversold and the downtrend may continue. In such a case, support is at 200.8 using Fib retracement from 2 May peak and 16 Mar low.
On the other end, resistance is at 204.5 (EMA55), 205.2 (EMA21 and Fib Retracement line), then 206.7 (EMA100).
GU
GU went into an oversold position and showed signs of reversal).
At the 1 hour chart, a double bottom was form and price has been climbing.
Resistance is at 1.9580 (EMA55 1 hour chart) and 1.9620 (EMA100, 1 hour chart).
Support is at 1.9500 (low 7 May), then 1.9400 (low 20 Feb)
GJ
After a day of drop, which pushed WMA5 way below EMA21, EMA55, GJ was supported at 203.0 and 202.6. The struggle was evident in the 1 hour chart with 202.6 tested 3 times yesterday.
Will the down trend continue?
Looking at the daily chart, CCI has yet to go into oversold and the downtrend may continue. In such a case, support is at 200.8 using Fib retracement from 2 May peak and 16 Mar low.
On the other end, resistance is at 204.5 (EMA55), 205.2 (EMA21 and Fib Retracement line), then 206.7 (EMA100).
GU
GU went into an oversold position and showed signs of reversal).
At the 1 hour chart, a double bottom was form and price has been climbing.
Resistance is at 1.9580 (EMA55 1 hour chart) and 1.9620 (EMA100, 1 hour chart).
Support is at 1.9500 (low 7 May), then 1.9400 (low 20 Feb)
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
7 May 2008
Reported at 0730hrs SGT
GJ
Buyers seems to be back, thus supporting the WMA5 from falling below EMA100 (daily chart). Looking at the CCI, the down trend looks is weaken and may gear for another round of up.
A good breakup north is above 207.2, while a break south is at 205.4.
Support at 206.0 (EMA21) and 204.8 (EMA55)
Resistance is at 209.0 (peak), 213.9 (EMA200).
GU
Downtrend may continue to bring GU to an oversold position.
Support at 1.9635 (fib retracement) and 1.9500 (low).
Resistance at 1.9800 (EMA21) and 1.9850 (EMA100)
GJ
Buyers seems to be back, thus supporting the WMA5 from falling below EMA100 (daily chart). Looking at the CCI, the down trend looks is weaken and may gear for another round of up.
A good breakup north is above 207.2, while a break south is at 205.4.
Support at 206.0 (EMA21) and 204.8 (EMA55)
Resistance is at 209.0 (peak), 213.9 (EMA200).
GU
Downtrend may continue to bring GU to an oversold position.
Support at 1.9635 (fib retracement) and 1.9500 (low).
Resistance at 1.9800 (EMA21) and 1.9850 (EMA100)
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Reported at 1130hrs SGT
GJ
From the daily chart, WMA5 managed to go above EMA100. Will it maintain the momentum to hit EMA200?
The amrket may consolidate to swing the price down and therefore keep WMA5 below EMA100. If that is so, you will see support at 205.8 (EMA21) and 204.7 (EMA55).
On the other hand, if WMA5 managed to hang on to above EMA100 (207.0), it will have momentum to run towards 211, then 214.
Overall CCI, look down.
GU
CCI look down, but sign of doji appeared.
Support is at 1.9600 (Fib retracement, low level)
Resistance is at 1.9830 (EMA55), then 1.9920 (EMA200)
GJ
From the daily chart, WMA5 managed to go above EMA100. Will it maintain the momentum to hit EMA200?
The amrket may consolidate to swing the price down and therefore keep WMA5 below EMA100. If that is so, you will see support at 205.8 (EMA21) and 204.7 (EMA55).
On the other hand, if WMA5 managed to hang on to above EMA100 (207.0), it will have momentum to run towards 211, then 214.
Overall CCI, look down.
GU
CCI look down, but sign of doji appeared.
Support is at 1.9600 (Fib retracement, low level)
Resistance is at 1.9830 (EMA55), then 1.9920 (EMA200)
Friday, May 02, 2008
2 May 2008
Reported at 1000hrs SGT
GJ
WMA5 was constrained within EMA100 and EMA55 from the daily chart. It will be expected to have more ding-dong around this region before a breakout. The constrain gives a price region of around 207 and 204.5
Should a breakout up happen, it must break past the price of 208 for the WMA5 to clear EMA100, then reach the resistance at EMA200 at 213.8 or first half way mark at around 211.
Should the price break pass EMA55, it will gain support at 202, then 200.
Overall CCI indicate a sluggish up trend, showing sign of a rebound off EMA100.
GU
Looking at the daily chart, for the past days, EMA200 post a big resistance at 1.9930.
CCI showed up trend and therefore potential that will move the price towards EMA200. A breakout is possible will bring GU to 2.0000, then 2.1000. But looking at how the EU perform, the USD look to have more strength.
On the support, 1.9680 (Fib retracement) then 1.9600.
GJ
WMA5 was constrained within EMA100 and EMA55 from the daily chart. It will be expected to have more ding-dong around this region before a breakout. The constrain gives a price region of around 207 and 204.5
Should a breakout up happen, it must break past the price of 208 for the WMA5 to clear EMA100, then reach the resistance at EMA200 at 213.8 or first half way mark at around 211.
Should the price break pass EMA55, it will gain support at 202, then 200.
Overall CCI indicate a sluggish up trend, showing sign of a rebound off EMA100.
GU
Looking at the daily chart, for the past days, EMA200 post a big resistance at 1.9930.
CCI showed up trend and therefore potential that will move the price towards EMA200. A breakout is possible will bring GU to 2.0000, then 2.1000. But looking at how the EU perform, the USD look to have more strength.
On the support, 1.9680 (Fib retracement) then 1.9600.
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