1. News: Europe will not have many news today to create major upsets in the currency.
US consumner confidence, which will be announced today at ST 2300hrs, will have an impact. This index has been on the decline, which may confirm Fed about the state of the economy.
2. Stock Markets: US did a small recovery, probably due for some profits taking. Europe lead the way, showing a rebound on Friday.
3. Major Currencies: USD in strengthen on Friday.
4. Technicals: From the CCI, a rebound occurred in the center BB line. BB has also thin out. From the daily chart, WMA5 has been sandwiched between EMA21 and EMA55 for a few days. These are all signs of breakout. From the hour chart, WMA5 has swing above and below EMA200. Today is still a day of dispersions.
5. Personal Assessment: Should a breakout north occur, I will place the resistance at 2.0770 and for the other, support at 2.0500.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
22 Nov 2007
1. News: BoE has a vote of 7-2 and therefore it seem for the moment that interest rate is not going to be cut.
US will be having Thanksgiving Holiday.
2. Stock Market: The world market plunged, ranging from Asia to Europe to US. All closes anything from 1.33% to 2.5%! Hang Seng has 4.5%!
3. Major Currencies: USD show sign of weakening against all major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, the up is gaining momentum, should CCI cleared the second BB line, a high chance of going up. From the 1 hour chart, formation of a double bottom. WMA5 dip below EMA200 and rebounded above EMA200. Now supporting it and after yesterday battle that seem that the buyers has won, lies EMA200 and EMA100. EMA21 failed to go below EMA200 and indicate further a likelihood for going up. Resistance at 2.0700 and support at 2.0520.
4. Personal Assessment: All play now lies at the EUrope market today. GBP has a news on Bussiness Investment, which has been on the rise - a positive effect on GBP, but this is not a strong news. US stock market is close and with yesterday dip, the momentum will contiune. Technically, it will be a matter of when the GBP break up. From the indicators watch out for CCI to bit the second BB line and for EMA21 to rebound off EMA200. The formation of a double bottom from the 1 hour chart has indicated that the battle was won by the buyers.
US will be having Thanksgiving Holiday.
2. Stock Market: The world market plunged, ranging from Asia to Europe to US. All closes anything from 1.33% to 2.5%! Hang Seng has 4.5%!
3. Major Currencies: USD show sign of weakening against all major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, the up is gaining momentum, should CCI cleared the second BB line, a high chance of going up. From the 1 hour chart, formation of a double bottom. WMA5 dip below EMA200 and rebounded above EMA200. Now supporting it and after yesterday battle that seem that the buyers has won, lies EMA200 and EMA100. EMA21 failed to go below EMA200 and indicate further a likelihood for going up. Resistance at 2.0700 and support at 2.0520.
4. Personal Assessment: All play now lies at the EUrope market today. GBP has a news on Bussiness Investment, which has been on the rise - a positive effect on GBP, but this is not a strong news. US stock market is close and with yesterday dip, the momentum will contiune. Technically, it will be a matter of when the GBP break up. From the indicators watch out for CCI to bit the second BB line and for EMA21 to rebound off EMA200. The formation of a double bottom from the 1 hour chart has indicated that the battle was won by the buyers.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
21 Nov 2007
1. News: There was no mention on interest rate at FOMC. Instead, "The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, "the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast.
Today ST 1730hrs, BOE issued a generally downbeat assessment of the economy in its quarterly inflation report and effectively indicated that rates would be cut within the next few months. It look to be negative for the UK currency given that there will be a discussion of interest rate cuts and the UK growth risks with the possibility of a very close vote.
2. Stock market: The FTSE gain yesterday by more than 100 points. The rest of Europe also rally. US market took the chance for some profit taking. DOW close 50 points up.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies except the JPY, did a breakout, strengthening against the GBP.
4. Technicals: From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 managed to punch through EMA200. The testing point will be for GBP to sailed pass the price at 2.0700. A rebound could happen and that gives the support at 2.0520. Another support is at 2.0420.
5. Personal assessment: GBP has not shown any clear direction, but the chances for it to go up is there. CCI has reversed and pierce through the first BB line. EMA21 from the daily chart has passed EMA200 and should it not reverse, given the first support at 2.0520, GBP has again good to go up. BoE will cut rates, but so far only one member consent to it.
Today ST 1730hrs, BOE issued a generally downbeat assessment of the economy in its quarterly inflation report and effectively indicated that rates would be cut within the next few months. It look to be negative for the UK currency given that there will be a discussion of interest rate cuts and the UK growth risks with the possibility of a very close vote.
2. Stock market: The FTSE gain yesterday by more than 100 points. The rest of Europe also rally. US market took the chance for some profit taking. DOW close 50 points up.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies except the JPY, did a breakout, strengthening against the GBP.
4. Technicals: From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 managed to punch through EMA200. The testing point will be for GBP to sailed pass the price at 2.0700. A rebound could happen and that gives the support at 2.0520. Another support is at 2.0420.
5. Personal assessment: GBP has not shown any clear direction, but the chances for it to go up is there. CCI has reversed and pierce through the first BB line. EMA21 from the daily chart has passed EMA200 and should it not reverse, given the first support at 2.0520, GBP has again good to go up. BoE will cut rates, but so far only one member consent to it.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
20 Nov 2007
1. News: It has been quiet yesterday. Today watch out for US Housing starts - but this figure will continue to fall and will not be much out of expectation. The biggest news to watch for is FOMC at Singapore time Wed 0300hrs. Will Fed cut interest rate?
2. Stock Market: Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Stock markets overseas also slumped. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 2.71 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.65 percent.
3. Major Currencies: It has been much a side way movement for the dollars against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: Yesterday saw WMA5 (daily chart) attempting to pass EMA100, but failed. The CCI move down with yesterday price, but not into an oversold position. Likewise on the 1 hour chart, EMA5 failed to punch up through EMA55 and EMA100. The question is a matter of time and attempts. 2.0400 still pose a good support line for price to sail to EMA200 on the daily chart. On the contrary, 2.0570 is a good price for resistance.
5. Personal Assessment: The last two time Fed announced interest rate cut, it push the GBP up. (Sep 18 and Nov 1). There has been hints of no cut this time round. 'Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,' 'since the October rate cut, the data suggests the US economy is still 'resilient,' but noted that volatility and strains remain.' Bernanke warns.
A good look out is for WMA to pass support 2.0400 or EMA100 or pass resistance 2.0570 or EMA55. It can go both way with good chance for both. With a quiet day all brewing towards FOMC - play with caution.
2. Stock Market: Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Stock markets overseas also slumped. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 2.71 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.65 percent.
3. Major Currencies: It has been much a side way movement for the dollars against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: Yesterday saw WMA5 (daily chart) attempting to pass EMA100, but failed. The CCI move down with yesterday price, but not into an oversold position. Likewise on the 1 hour chart, EMA5 failed to punch up through EMA55 and EMA100. The question is a matter of time and attempts. 2.0400 still pose a good support line for price to sail to EMA200 on the daily chart. On the contrary, 2.0570 is a good price for resistance.
5. Personal Assessment: The last two time Fed announced interest rate cut, it push the GBP up. (Sep 18 and Nov 1). There has been hints of no cut this time round. 'Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,' 'since the October rate cut, the data suggests the US economy is still 'resilient,' but noted that volatility and strains remain.' Bernanke warns.
A good look out is for WMA to pass support 2.0400 or EMA100 or pass resistance 2.0570 or EMA55. It can go both way with good chance for both. With a quiet day all brewing towards FOMC - play with caution.
Monday, November 19, 2007
19 Nov 2007
1. News: A series of forthcoming 'downbeat' data releases will not necessarily lead to another interest rate cut, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner has warned financial markets.
There are no major news both from the UK and the US today.
2. Stock Market: In relative to the US, the European market showed weakness on Friday. The FTSE was down by more than 1%. The DOW was down and recovered only in the last hours of trading.
3. Major Currencies:The USD showed no sign of strengthening against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, CCI did not go into an oversold position. WMA5 rebounded off EMA100 and head straight towards EMA55 and will attempt to clear it. Should it clear it, price will go towards EMA21 at 2.0655. Likewise, the attempt may failed and GBP will go towards EMA200, should WMA5 clear EMA100. The support line is at 2.0400.
5. Personal Assessment: No major news today. The market may consoldiate after last week dip. A uptrend is possible depending how WMA5 perform.
There are no major news both from the UK and the US today.
2. Stock Market: In relative to the US, the European market showed weakness on Friday. The FTSE was down by more than 1%. The DOW was down and recovered only in the last hours of trading.
3. Major Currencies:The USD showed no sign of strengthening against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, CCI did not go into an oversold position. WMA5 rebounded off EMA100 and head straight towards EMA55 and will attempt to clear it. Should it clear it, price will go towards EMA21 at 2.0655. Likewise, the attempt may failed and GBP will go towards EMA200, should WMA5 clear EMA100. The support line is at 2.0400.
5. Personal Assessment: No major news today. The market may consoldiate after last week dip. A uptrend is possible depending how WMA5 perform.
Friday, November 16, 2007
16 Nov 2007
1. News: US CPI inflation met expectations with a rise of 0.3 pct in October from September, as strong inflation will make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates again. Jobless claims also painted a gloomy picture for the economy. Data showed there were 339,000 new claims for the week ending Nov 10, up 20,000 from the prior week and higher than expectations for a broadly unchanged reading.On the flipside, the New York Fed's manufacturing survey for November suggested business conditions remained firm in October, with the reading dipping to 27.37 from 28.75 in October.
In its quarterly inflation report released yesterday, the Bank of England said it expects tighter credit conditions, lower house price inflation and heightened inflation to dampen consumer spending. After yesterday's dovish Bank of England inflation report, which all but confirmed that two UK interest rate cuts will be forthcoming next year, the weak figures will add to speculation that the first move could come as early as next month.
2. Stock Market: Europe market and US market both down. Admist fear of gas price and oil prices, triggered uncertainity. For this week, both UK and US has been reporting negative news indicating a weakening US and UK economy .
3. Major Currencies: Both CHF and EUR seemed to be moving side way, giving no strong clues in which direction. The JPY showed another round of strengthening process.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, WMA5 passed EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. In term of price, GBP is now hoveing near 2.0430, around EMA100. Should WMA5 clear EMA55, there will be a good tendency for GBP to reach EMA200 or at 2.0230. On the contrary, from the 1 hour chart, WMA5 may attempt to move up and pass EMA21, at 2.0520
5. Personal Assessment: Being the last day of the week and with few major news, I don't expect any reversal of the GBP to happen today. It will be good to observe how WMA5 from the daily chart perform in the case of a rebound off EMA55. GBP should go down to bring the CCI to an oversold position, and should such a case well supported by EMA5 clearing EMA55, the price could posible reach support at EMA200 or at 2.0230
In its quarterly inflation report released yesterday, the Bank of England said it expects tighter credit conditions, lower house price inflation and heightened inflation to dampen consumer spending. After yesterday's dovish Bank of England inflation report, which all but confirmed that two UK interest rate cuts will be forthcoming next year, the weak figures will add to speculation that the first move could come as early as next month.
2. Stock Market: Europe market and US market both down. Admist fear of gas price and oil prices, triggered uncertainity. For this week, both UK and US has been reporting negative news indicating a weakening US and UK economy .
3. Major Currencies: Both CHF and EUR seemed to be moving side way, giving no strong clues in which direction. The JPY showed another round of strengthening process.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, WMA5 passed EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. In term of price, GBP is now hoveing near 2.0430, around EMA100. Should WMA5 clear EMA55, there will be a good tendency for GBP to reach EMA200 or at 2.0230. On the contrary, from the 1 hour chart, WMA5 may attempt to move up and pass EMA21, at 2.0520
5. Personal Assessment: Being the last day of the week and with few major news, I don't expect any reversal of the GBP to happen today. It will be good to observe how WMA5 from the daily chart perform in the case of a rebound off EMA55. GBP should go down to bring the CCI to an oversold position, and should such a case well supported by EMA5 clearing EMA55, the price could posible reach support at EMA200 or at 2.0230
Thursday, November 15, 2007
15 Nov 2007
1. News: The BoE's latest forecasts showed annual inflation would be at 2.00 pct in two years' time, based on market forecasts that interest rates will fall to 5.2 pct by early 2009 and 5.1 pct by the end of 2009.If interest rates stay as they are at 5.75 pct, however, CPI inflation will fall to around 1.75 pct, the report showed. The pound weakened in expectation of an interest rate cut.
In the US, Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, were unchanged in October. The last time core prices rose more slowly was in March, when they fell 0.1 pct. This push further the pound down.
Tonight, there will be news from the US on Unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. In expectation, Government data released Thursday is forecast to show crude-oil inventories fell last week for the fourth straight period.
2. Stock Market: Europe market did a mini rally yesterday, with the FSTS running up by more than 1%. On the contrary, US market was mainly still yesterday, but ended in red during the last hour of trading.
3. Major Currencies: With exception from GBP, the rest of the major curreny did relatively small movement, forming doji.
4. Technicals: GBP came down to form the C-wave. From the 1 day chart, WMA5 cleared EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. However, bearing in mind that 2.0600 used to be a resistance line for months, before a breakout happened late last month.
5. Personal Assessment: With all the negative news from the UK coming to an end and with major reporting now coming from the US, I will expect some form of consolidation to happen. Yes the formation of the C-wave is there, and indicator from CCI continue to show the potential for GBP to go south till a oversold position. However, 2.0600 and EMA55 (1 day chart) may prove to be a support line. Therefore, watch out for any such formation in CCI or a rebound of WMA5 on EMA55 (1 day) and should there be a need, please abandon short position.
In the US, Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, were unchanged in October. The last time core prices rose more slowly was in March, when they fell 0.1 pct. This push further the pound down.
Tonight, there will be news from the US on Unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. In expectation, Government data released Thursday is forecast to show crude-oil inventories fell last week for the fourth straight period.
2. Stock Market: Europe market did a mini rally yesterday, with the FSTS running up by more than 1%. On the contrary, US market was mainly still yesterday, but ended in red during the last hour of trading.
3. Major Currencies: With exception from GBP, the rest of the major curreny did relatively small movement, forming doji.
4. Technicals: GBP came down to form the C-wave. From the 1 day chart, WMA5 cleared EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. However, bearing in mind that 2.0600 used to be a resistance line for months, before a breakout happened late last month.
5. Personal Assessment: With all the negative news from the UK coming to an end and with major reporting now coming from the US, I will expect some form of consolidation to happen. Yes the formation of the C-wave is there, and indicator from CCI continue to show the potential for GBP to go south till a oversold position. However, 2.0600 and EMA55 (1 day chart) may prove to be a support line. Therefore, watch out for any such formation in CCI or a rebound of WMA5 on EMA55 (1 day) and should there be a need, please abandon short position.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
14 Nov 2007
1. News: Yesterday UK CPI reported better results than expected. Also today, The UK interest rate debate will remain very open in the short term and the Bank of England quarterly inflation report will be important for rate expectations.there is likely to be some downside Sterling risk on a cautious outlook for the economy. There is likely to be some downside Sterling risk on a cautious outlook for the economy.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
13 Nov 2007
1. News: Manufacturers raised output prices by their highest annual amount in 12 years, as they pushed through the cost of higher crude oil and food prices on to customers. Rate-setters at the Bank of England will be concerned about the sharp rises in both input and output prices ahead of the release of its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday.
Today, The Tuesday UK consumer inflation data will be important in determining the near-term pricing pressures and the degree of flexibility that the bank will have to respond to fears over a slowdown in growth. A low reading for inflation would make it much more likely that the bank would sanction a December interest rate cut to offset the credit crunch.
2. Stock Market: The Dow closes below 13,000. Wall Street ratcheted its way through a fractious session Monday before finally closing lower on expectations of further fallout from the ongoing credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials, up more than 100 points during the day, ended below 13,000 for the first time since August. On the contracry, European market closes mixed.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies make a retracement against the dollars yesterday.
4. Technicals: With yesterday, the formation of three black crows was completed. Using a 1 day chart, the GBP hit the EMA55. It touches the 2.0560 - 2.0620 region that for the last 2 months it has been trying to break.
5. Personal Assessment: There are no big news in the US that will affect the GBP greatly today. Of course with yesterday Dow dip, it may follow through the momentum for another day of dip or consolidation, giving the fact that 13,000 is a good support line, which DOW has been trying to break this year.
UK has a CCI annoucement 1730hrs.
The FTSE close at 6337 yesterday,which the FTSE failed to push through resistance at the confluence of the 100 and 200 SMAs at 6,426/35 on Friday, indicating that equities are lacking bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the index stopped short of falling through the 50 percent retracement level of 5,821.7. The reversal took place.
With 3 days of black crows, the expectation will be mixed today.
My expectation is for the GBP to do a consolidation today, bouncing off the EMA55 on the daily chart, forming a B-wave, before the creation of a C-wave towards EMA200 on the daily chart.
I will place a breakout south at 2.0500, with support at 2.0200. Alternatively, the break out north is at 2.0720
Today, The Tuesday UK consumer inflation data will be important in determining the near-term pricing pressures and the degree of flexibility that the bank will have to respond to fears over a slowdown in growth. A low reading for inflation would make it much more likely that the bank would sanction a December interest rate cut to offset the credit crunch.
2. Stock Market: The Dow closes below 13,000. Wall Street ratcheted its way through a fractious session Monday before finally closing lower on expectations of further fallout from the ongoing credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials, up more than 100 points during the day, ended below 13,000 for the first time since August. On the contracry, European market closes mixed.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies make a retracement against the dollars yesterday.
4. Technicals: With yesterday, the formation of three black crows was completed. Using a 1 day chart, the GBP hit the EMA55. It touches the 2.0560 - 2.0620 region that for the last 2 months it has been trying to break.
5. Personal Assessment: There are no big news in the US that will affect the GBP greatly today. Of course with yesterday Dow dip, it may follow through the momentum for another day of dip or consolidation, giving the fact that 13,000 is a good support line, which DOW has been trying to break this year.
UK has a CCI annoucement 1730hrs.
The FTSE close at 6337 yesterday,which the FTSE failed to push through resistance at the confluence of the 100 and 200 SMAs at 6,426/35 on Friday, indicating that equities are lacking bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the index stopped short of falling through the 50 percent retracement level of 5,821.7. The reversal took place.
With 3 days of black crows, the expectation will be mixed today.
My expectation is for the GBP to do a consolidation today, bouncing off the EMA55 on the daily chart, forming a B-wave, before the creation of a C-wave towards EMA200 on the daily chart.
I will place a breakout south at 2.0500, with support at 2.0200. Alternatively, the break out north is at 2.0720
Friday, November 09, 2007
9 Nov 2007
1. News: UK interest rate remains at 5.75%. US unemployment rate fall.
Two important news today is on UK and US trade balance. However, the figure release would be more or less as expected. As such, the pressure is for GBP to continue to climb.
2. Stock Market: European market moved sideway yesterday, with US market contiune to take a dip. Stocks extended the previous day's steep losses after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that a raft of economic troubles could dent business growth and after Cisco's comments touched off unease about business spending. But buyers moved back in late in the session, apparently thinking the market's selloff had been overdone.
3. Major Currencies: EUR, CHF continune to show strength, with the JPY forming a doji.
4. Technicals: With no reversal in view, GBP seem to be ramping up for another up-wave. A good resistance to hit is at 2.1280. However, on the contrary, CCI(34) showed a overbought case and somewhat and unless CCI pass through the cnetral of the BB, GBP will make a upward trend. Support will be at 2.0960.
5. Personal Assessment: I believe the market will move side and lingers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart), after a failure to do so yesterday, before a rebound north. There are no signs of UK intend to weaken the pound nor there is sign of US economy recovery. The northward bound will be abandon should GBP sailed pass 2.0960 and CCI(34) from 1 day chart go below the BB central line.
Two important news today is on UK and US trade balance. However, the figure release would be more or less as expected. As such, the pressure is for GBP to continue to climb.
2. Stock Market: European market moved sideway yesterday, with US market contiune to take a dip. Stocks extended the previous day's steep losses after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that a raft of economic troubles could dent business growth and after Cisco's comments touched off unease about business spending. But buyers moved back in late in the session, apparently thinking the market's selloff had been overdone.
3. Major Currencies: EUR, CHF continune to show strength, with the JPY forming a doji.
4. Technicals: With no reversal in view, GBP seem to be ramping up for another up-wave. A good resistance to hit is at 2.1280. However, on the contrary, CCI(34) showed a overbought case and somewhat and unless CCI pass through the cnetral of the BB, GBP will make a upward trend. Support will be at 2.0960.
5. Personal Assessment: I believe the market will move side and lingers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart), after a failure to do so yesterday, before a rebound north. There are no signs of UK intend to weaken the pound nor there is sign of US economy recovery. The northward bound will be abandon should GBP sailed pass 2.0960 and CCI(34) from 1 day chart go below the BB central line.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)