1. News: US reported a falling housing sales numbers and the ripple effect will be that the housing credit woes are not over yet and now people are feeling the actual effect.
Today, two major news, the unemployment claims at SGT 2030 and New Home sales at SGT2200. These news will be watch to signify the health of the economy.
2. Stock Market: Bank of America has announced to cut 3000 jobs. the Dow dip a little yesterday but in general, movement in the stock market is calm. Euorpean market too move sideway, end slightly in the red.
3. Major Currencies: EUR move sideway yesterday, a sign of consolidation after days of strengthening against the dollar. CHF and JPYlooked as it would be weaken against the dollars.
4. Technicals: With the 1 hour chart, GBP was well supported by EMA200. Attempts to clear through 2.0440 failed. Movement has been side way for the day, after 2 days of big swing down and up. On the 1 day chart, CCI showed that GBP would continue to strengthen till it achieved an overbought position. Resistance seemed to be set at 2.0500, where a big punch through would render 2.0500 becoming a good support line. A clear break north is set at 2.0640
5. Personal Assessment: The European government has been weary of the strong EUR, but is there a way to put it to a stop? US economy continue to show sign of weakness, and further coupled with next week Fed interest annoucement with a potential to cut rates will sent the dollars to a new low. Decisions to buy is difficult as you may be catch in a overbought position. Market has clearly consolidated yesterday and a breakout is emminent. I will wait for a clear signal, with north after a firm 2.0525 and south after a firm 2.0340. Attempts will be for WMA5 (using the 1 hour chart) to clear EMA200 at 2.0440. Therefore, it will either clear it and go south or rebound to go north.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
24 Oct 2007
1. News: US will be announcing Home Sales at 2200hrs. The result, should it fall out of expectation will send the dollars weaken.
2. Stock Mkt: US Market did a profit taking yesterday with DOW gaining 100 points after losing more than 300 points last week. Results of good earning helped push the market up.
3. Currency: Dollars weaken on overll with all major currency. Signs of further weakening is there.
4. Technicals: GBP zoom passed 2.0500 and sailed pass EMA200 on the 1 hour chart, clearing with ease 2.0420. As such, that formed a good support line, with much potential for GBP to hit a new high of 2.0600
5. Personal View: US economy has showed signs of weakness and with no UK news to counter, the dollars is expected to weaken against the GBP. Of course, 2.0420 give the support. CCI from 1 day chart showed a contiune movement up to bring GBP to a overbought position. The high is set at 2.0765. Of course and naturally 2.0650 (all time high) give the resistance.
2. Stock Mkt: US Market did a profit taking yesterday with DOW gaining 100 points after losing more than 300 points last week. Results of good earning helped push the market up.
3. Currency: Dollars weaken on overll with all major currency. Signs of further weakening is there.
4. Technicals: GBP zoom passed 2.0500 and sailed pass EMA200 on the 1 hour chart, clearing with ease 2.0420. As such, that formed a good support line, with much potential for GBP to hit a new high of 2.0600
5. Personal View: US economy has showed signs of weakness and with no UK news to counter, the dollars is expected to weaken against the GBP. Of course, 2.0420 give the support. CCI from 1 day chart showed a contiune movement up to bring GBP to a overbought position. The high is set at 2.0765. Of course and naturally 2.0650 (all time high) give the resistance.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
17 Oct 2007
1. News: UK CPI, one of the key economic indicator for inflation fell below expectation to 1.5%. The move suggest a impending inflation and strongly urge BoE to cut interest rate like its Fed counterpart. This CPI has been below the BoE's 2.0 pct target rate for three months running and has weighed on sterling since it raises expectations that UK interest rates could be cut before the end of this year.
Also yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the slumping housing market remains a "significant drag" on the economy. Oil hit another high at $88, with the potential to erode away any weak dollars advantage the US economy enjoy in export. All showing more oreintation to a weaker economy.
BoE will meet to discuss interest rate today at 1630.
Also at 2030, US housing starts. A low level of housing activity signals that the construction industry isgoing down and that consumers have less the capital to make large investments.
2. Stock market is down for both Europe and US, mainly due to the news.
3. GBP fell against all major currencies yesterday.
4. Technically, the GBP look for another day of fall to the support line at 2.0270 and 2.0200. Again, the attempt togo above 2.04500 failed and that offer and suggested the super resistance line.
5. My personal view:
Key figures released yesterday has pushed the GBP down, technically, the GBP has moved side way and it is now looking for a clear trend. Most likely, BoE will reduce interest rate next month. With most EUR and GBP make high against the dollars, the intention to weaken the currencies is there. EUR hit high, but failed to clear 1.430.
On the US side, all words about the economy is that there will be pending recession, the dollars has weakened and that helped to cushion US export.
Technically, CCI showed down and has been side way. A good formation to wait is for CCI to either clear BB mean line or to go below -150 to get into a oversold condition.
I will favour a sell today, with support at EMA55 on the daily chart. Attempt to break it is good before EMA100. It's time for GBP to make some clear trend.
Also yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the slumping housing market remains a "significant drag" on the economy. Oil hit another high at $88, with the potential to erode away any weak dollars advantage the US economy enjoy in export. All showing more oreintation to a weaker economy.
BoE will meet to discuss interest rate today at 1630.
Also at 2030, US housing starts. A low level of housing activity signals that the construction industry isgoing down and that consumers have less the capital to make large investments.
2. Stock market is down for both Europe and US, mainly due to the news.
3. GBP fell against all major currencies yesterday.
4. Technically, the GBP look for another day of fall to the support line at 2.0270 and 2.0200. Again, the attempt togo above 2.04500 failed and that offer and suggested the super resistance line.
5. My personal view:
Key figures released yesterday has pushed the GBP down, technically, the GBP has moved side way and it is now looking for a clear trend. Most likely, BoE will reduce interest rate next month. With most EUR and GBP make high against the dollars, the intention to weaken the currencies is there. EUR hit high, but failed to clear 1.430.
On the US side, all words about the economy is that there will be pending recession, the dollars has weakened and that helped to cushion US export.
Technically, CCI showed down and has been side way. A good formation to wait is for CCI to either clear BB mean line or to go below -150 to get into a oversold condition.
I will favour a sell today, with support at EMA55 on the daily chart. Attempt to break it is good before EMA100. It's time for GBP to make some clear trend.
Friday, October 12, 2007
12 Oct 2007
1. US Jobless claim fell and is better than expected. Trade Balance is better than expected too. As such, it justified the economy sentiments that the credit woes did not and was not due to the fundamental. This would give an indication that the economy is not hitting a recession.
With no major UK news today and with Fed speaking today (ST) at 2110, after US PPI announcement, the trend of a stronger dollars will continue. Fed is expected to cut rate, but who knows what will Ben say tonight, given indication of a "still" robust economy.
2. Europe market did a "mini" rally yesterday, with FTSE gaining almost a 100 points. US market on the contrary did some profit taking.
Note: Accordingly, a bullish rally in the market has a reverse effect on the country currency. Though not always true, people will sell away the currency to borrow cheaper currency and buy stocks.
3. Major currency ended mix. With Euro up, GBP down, CHF Up and JPY down against the US dollars.
4. Using the daily chart, no rebound and that signifies that GBP will contiune to move south. EMA21 will be the first hurdle WMA5 will cross and if it does so, a good support line will be at EMA55 or 2.0250. Of course, the resistance line is still strongly entrench at 2.0450./2.0500
Using the 1 hour chart, EMA21 has managed to cross EMA200. A good indication of a further movement south is when EMA100 cross EMA200.Should this not occur, EMA200 or 2.0380 make a immediate resistance line and 2.0400 will indicate a breakout towards 2.0450/2.0500.
With no major UK news today and with Fed speaking today (ST) at 2110, after US PPI announcement, the trend of a stronger dollars will continue. Fed is expected to cut rate, but who knows what will Ben say tonight, given indication of a "still" robust economy.
2. Europe market did a "mini" rally yesterday, with FTSE gaining almost a 100 points. US market on the contrary did some profit taking.
Note: Accordingly, a bullish rally in the market has a reverse effect on the country currency. Though not always true, people will sell away the currency to borrow cheaper currency and buy stocks.
3. Major currency ended mix. With Euro up, GBP down, CHF Up and JPY down against the US dollars.
4. Using the daily chart, no rebound and that signifies that GBP will contiune to move south. EMA21 will be the first hurdle WMA5 will cross and if it does so, a good support line will be at EMA55 or 2.0250. Of course, the resistance line is still strongly entrench at 2.0450./2.0500
Using the 1 hour chart, EMA21 has managed to cross EMA200. A good indication of a further movement south is when EMA100 cross EMA200.Should this not occur, EMA200 or 2.0380 make a immediate resistance line and 2.0400 will indicate a breakout towards 2.0450/2.0500.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
11 Oct 2007
1. There were already hints and rumors that Fed is again going to cut rate. Bernanke will speak this Friday.
The European govts have met, talking about the strength in Euro against the dollars - a sign of weakening it.
Today at Singapore time 2230hrs, US is going to announce Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims.
2. The US market has been rallying with yesterday, taking some profits. It points in general a good indication of a strong fundamental in the US economics, despite the credit woes that has attract too much media attention.
In addition, the Euro market close mix, with FSTE up 17 points.
3. Major currency climb high against the dollar yesterday, however, the strength was short live by the time the US market opens.
4. GBP break the 2.0450 resistance yesterday and threathen 2.0500. It tested 2.0500, but make a reverse during US market.
Using the daily chart, CCI indicator is mixed, a sign of GBP moving in a unsure direction. It seem to be making up towards the BB(14, 0.3) mark. A sure sign of rebound is when it clear the BB median line.
Using the 1 hour chart, a strong support line is build up at 2.0380. Should WMA5 and EMA21 clear pass that support, which is make up of both EMA100 and EMA200, a good breakout south will occur. However, GBP may rebound at the support line and try again to pass 2.0500.
The European govts have met, talking about the strength in Euro against the dollars - a sign of weakening it.
Today at Singapore time 2230hrs, US is going to announce Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims.
2. The US market has been rallying with yesterday, taking some profits. It points in general a good indication of a strong fundamental in the US economics, despite the credit woes that has attract too much media attention.
In addition, the Euro market close mix, with FSTE up 17 points.
3. Major currency climb high against the dollar yesterday, however, the strength was short live by the time the US market opens.
4. GBP break the 2.0450 resistance yesterday and threathen 2.0500. It tested 2.0500, but make a reverse during US market.
Using the daily chart, CCI indicator is mixed, a sign of GBP moving in a unsure direction. It seem to be making up towards the BB(14, 0.3) mark. A sure sign of rebound is when it clear the BB median line.
Using the 1 hour chart, a strong support line is build up at 2.0380. Should WMA5 and EMA21 clear pass that support, which is make up of both EMA100 and EMA200, a good breakout south will occur. However, GBP may rebound at the support line and try again to pass 2.0500.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
9 Oct 2007
1. Last night at 2230hrs, Euro govt gathered to discuss about the strength of the Euro against the dollar.
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro softened, particularly against the dollar, as euro area finance ministers meet to discuss, among other topics, how to contain the strength of their common currency.In the run-up to the Ecofin meeting, held today and tomorrow, politicians have been vocal about the need to do something about the strength of the euro. Together, they will be drafting a policy stance to bring to the G7 meeting later this month, in an effort to make other currencies -- the US dollar, most notably -- to appreciate.
Also, GBP PPI continue to weaken.
As a result, yesterday the GBP came down from above 2.0420 to 2.0350.
Today at 1630hrs, theres is a news on GBP trade balance and Euro Central Bank chief Trichet will be speaking. At 2230, The Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the annual Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons. The report contains important insights such as spending levels, borrowing estimates, and GDP growth forecasts for the following year.
2. Overall, Europe market did a dip. US market close with little movement from Friday rally.
3. Against the dollars, EUR and CHF has reverse and weaken against the dollar. The Yen continue its weakening process but seem to slow down.
4. On the technical, from the daily chart, the GBP has reverse. The momentum should contiune and a good support line is at 2.0240, the EMA55 line. Upward movement is possible, but a strong resistance is felt at 2.0450, considering the GBP trying but fail to breakout of this line for the last 5 days.
On the 1 hour chat, clearly the EMA21 has cross the EMA200 and should move south. A good gauge will be at 2.0330 to observe whether a U-turn will occur, else it will be making today low.
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro softened, particularly against the dollar, as euro area finance ministers meet to discuss, among other topics, how to contain the strength of their common currency.In the run-up to the Ecofin meeting, held today and tomorrow, politicians have been vocal about the need to do something about the strength of the euro. Together, they will be drafting a policy stance to bring to the G7 meeting later this month, in an effort to make other currencies -- the US dollar, most notably -- to appreciate.
Also, GBP PPI continue to weaken.
As a result, yesterday the GBP came down from above 2.0420 to 2.0350.
Today at 1630hrs, theres is a news on GBP trade balance and Euro Central Bank chief Trichet will be speaking. At 2230, The Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the annual Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons. The report contains important insights such as spending levels, borrowing estimates, and GDP growth forecasts for the following year.
2. Overall, Europe market did a dip. US market close with little movement from Friday rally.
3. Against the dollars, EUR and CHF has reverse and weaken against the dollar. The Yen continue its weakening process but seem to slow down.
4. On the technical, from the daily chart, the GBP has reverse. The momentum should contiune and a good support line is at 2.0240, the EMA55 line. Upward movement is possible, but a strong resistance is felt at 2.0450, considering the GBP trying but fail to breakout of this line for the last 5 days.
On the 1 hour chat, clearly the EMA21 has cross the EMA200 and should move south. A good gauge will be at 2.0330 to observe whether a U-turn will occur, else it will be making today low.
Monday, October 08, 2007
8 Oct 2007
1. The Labor Department's report that employers added 110,000 jobs in September -- essentially what analysts had expected -- reassured Wall Street that the job market wasn't pulling back sharply as was feared a month ago (from yahoo). But on the contrary, GBP pull higher amidst the stock market rebound.
To me, this raise give false sense of the actual US economy. If the economy is truely performing, dollars will strengthen against the GBP. But not so. Therefore either GBP will fall or if really true, the US economy will show sign of weakening.
US holiday today and all news is from Europe.
Today, News of UK PPI at 1630hrs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
2. US marker rallied on Friday. It will be a questioned for the Eupore market to have a rally.
3. Against the major currencies, the dollars show signs of weakening.
4. Using the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA200 or 2.0390. This is a good support and rebound for GBP. Aleternatively, a breakout north for GBP is at 2.0450. A breakout south is at 2.0340.
To me, this raise give false sense of the actual US economy. If the economy is truely performing, dollars will strengthen against the GBP. But not so. Therefore either GBP will fall or if really true, the US economy will show sign of weakening.
US holiday today and all news is from Europe.
Today, News of UK PPI at 1630hrs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
2. US marker rallied on Friday. It will be a questioned for the Eupore market to have a rally.
3. Against the major currencies, the dollars show signs of weakening.
4. Using the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA200 or 2.0390. This is a good support and rebound for GBP. Aleternatively, a breakout north for GBP is at 2.0450. A breakout south is at 2.0340.
Friday, October 05, 2007
4 Oct 2007
News:
The Bank of England has announced that the interest rate has remain the same. Unlike the Fed that cut the rate, in order to ease the housing mortage woes, UK did not do so. And anyway, the attention to the credit market and the problem with Northern Rock has pass media attention.
Sterling would still be likely to weaken sharply if rates are cut as futures markets have certainly not priced this in. With the Bank of England did not do so, GBP jump up after the announcement of rate remaining at 5.75% by a 50 pips, then to another 50 pips.
US is announcing unemployment claims - but not likely to influence the movement of the GBP.
Therefore, with all things remain unchange, GBP with yesterday influence will contiune to inch up.
Stock Market:
The Europe stock market performed moderately with mix emotions. US made a slight inch up. Overall, thee showed no good indication which direction GBP is heading today.
Currency Bench mark:
Most of the makor currency has strengthen against the USD today, after the last fews days of weakening. The direction against USD may contiune.
Technical:
The 1 hour chart show sign of a continue strength for GBP to go up, with stron support from EMA100 and EMA200. Should EMA21 clear EMA55 and EMA100, the direction is sure.
However, the mix comes from the daily chart, Yes there is a rebound from yesterday, and the question is how high?
The first resistance line is 2.0430 (yesterday peak) and 2.0500 (Monday peak), with 2.0650 as the whole year peak.
Support is at 2.0355 (1hour EMA200) and a breakout south is at 2.0290 (after yesterday low, for the downward trend to contiune).
The Bank of England has announced that the interest rate has remain the same. Unlike the Fed that cut the rate, in order to ease the housing mortage woes, UK did not do so. And anyway, the attention to the credit market and the problem with Northern Rock has pass media attention.
Sterling would still be likely to weaken sharply if rates are cut as futures markets have certainly not priced this in. With the Bank of England did not do so, GBP jump up after the announcement of rate remaining at 5.75% by a 50 pips, then to another 50 pips.
US is announcing unemployment claims - but not likely to influence the movement of the GBP.
Therefore, with all things remain unchange, GBP with yesterday influence will contiune to inch up.
Stock Market:
The Europe stock market performed moderately with mix emotions. US made a slight inch up. Overall, thee showed no good indication which direction GBP is heading today.
Currency Bench mark:
Most of the makor currency has strengthen against the USD today, after the last fews days of weakening. The direction against USD may contiune.
Technical:
The 1 hour chart show sign of a continue strength for GBP to go up, with stron support from EMA100 and EMA200. Should EMA21 clear EMA55 and EMA100, the direction is sure.
However, the mix comes from the daily chart, Yes there is a rebound from yesterday, and the question is how high?
The first resistance line is 2.0430 (yesterday peak) and 2.0500 (Monday peak), with 2.0650 as the whole year peak.
Support is at 2.0355 (1hour EMA200) and a breakout south is at 2.0290 (after yesterday low, for the downward trend to contiune).
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
3 Oct 2007
There are not many major news in the European market that will move the GBP. So it will be a quiet afternoon. The US is announcing Non farm employment and Non manufacturing index. To know more goto www.forexfactory.com
The overall effect on GBP is not a sure one, but should the results show a worst off, GBP will go upwards.
The DOW is taking profit yesterday after Monday rally. Bad news was reported affecting sales and consumer confidence. Should the European market rally today, which it has not been so, despite both the Asian and US market being so, then GBP will move upwards.
The major currency has reverse against the USD. Will the trend contiune down?
Technically, CCI on a daily chart show a downward trend. Within the 1 hour chart, WMA5 is sandwich between EMA55 and EMA200. The movement is not a sure one.
Support is at 2.0350 and resistance at 2.0450
The overall effect on GBP is not a sure one, but should the results show a worst off, GBP will go upwards.
The DOW is taking profit yesterday after Monday rally. Bad news was reported affecting sales and consumer confidence. Should the European market rally today, which it has not been so, despite both the Asian and US market being so, then GBP will move upwards.
The major currency has reverse against the USD. Will the trend contiune down?
Technically, CCI on a daily chart show a downward trend. Within the 1 hour chart, WMA5 is sandwich between EMA55 and EMA200. The movement is not a sure one.
Support is at 2.0350 and resistance at 2.0450
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
2 Oct 2007
There are no major news today. As such, the movement may not be wild today.
DOW clear 14,000 and a good rally in yesterday Wall street. Like wise, the European market did fairly with FTSE gaining a 0.6%.
Fundamental, with no major news to trigger movement, It is not expected to have any big rally again in either the Europe or the US market. People these days has become more cautious and take profit first.
Technically, the indication showed a higher probability of a downward movement. Using a 1 hour chart, WMA5 will move side way between EMA21/55 and EMA100. Unless, the intention is to catch any u and down movement, a breakout will be at 2.0330 and 2.0500.
DOW clear 14,000 and a good rally in yesterday Wall street. Like wise, the European market did fairly with FTSE gaining a 0.6%.
Fundamental, with no major news to trigger movement, It is not expected to have any big rally again in either the Europe or the US market. People these days has become more cautious and take profit first.
Technically, the indication showed a higher probability of a downward movement. Using a 1 hour chart, WMA5 will move side way between EMA21/55 and EMA100. Unless, the intention is to catch any u and down movement, a breakout will be at 2.0330 and 2.0500.
Monday, October 01, 2007
1 Oct 2007
What happen on Friday during US market? The GBP suddenly shoot up. Is it an indication of the weakening of the US economy? Everyone is now expecting a slow down, after speeches from Ben Bernanke and President Bush.
The EUR, YEN and CHF has made stronger against the USD. It is a matter of time (which happen last Friday) before a strong breakout.
Technically, GBP can climb to the next high at 2.0700, which is the Fib retracement line. That will be a new high for GBP and a strong resistance line. GBP is indeed overbought (using CCI).
A short retracement is expected, using either the daily chart or the 1 hour chart. CCI has indicated a reversal. Using the daily chart, the support line is at EMA21 and using the 1 hours chart the support line is at EMA100. The price is estimated at 2.0390.
The EUR, YEN and CHF has made stronger against the USD. It is a matter of time (which happen last Friday) before a strong breakout.
Technically, GBP can climb to the next high at 2.0700, which is the Fib retracement line. That will be a new high for GBP and a strong resistance line. GBP is indeed overbought (using CCI).
A short retracement is expected, using either the daily chart or the 1 hour chart. CCI has indicated a reversal. Using the daily chart, the support line is at EMA21 and using the 1 hours chart the support line is at EMA100. The price is estimated at 2.0390.
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