1. News: Europe will not have many news today to create major upsets in the currency.
US consumner confidence, which will be announced today at ST 2300hrs, will have an impact. This index has been on the decline, which may confirm Fed about the state of the economy.
2. Stock Markets: US did a small recovery, probably due for some profits taking. Europe lead the way, showing a rebound on Friday.
3. Major Currencies: USD in strengthen on Friday.
4. Technicals: From the CCI, a rebound occurred in the center BB line. BB has also thin out. From the daily chart, WMA5 has been sandwiched between EMA21 and EMA55 for a few days. These are all signs of breakout. From the hour chart, WMA5 has swing above and below EMA200. Today is still a day of dispersions.
5. Personal Assessment: Should a breakout north occur, I will place the resistance at 2.0770 and for the other, support at 2.0500.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
22 Nov 2007
1. News: BoE has a vote of 7-2 and therefore it seem for the moment that interest rate is not going to be cut.
US will be having Thanksgiving Holiday.
2. Stock Market: The world market plunged, ranging from Asia to Europe to US. All closes anything from 1.33% to 2.5%! Hang Seng has 4.5%!
3. Major Currencies: USD show sign of weakening against all major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, the up is gaining momentum, should CCI cleared the second BB line, a high chance of going up. From the 1 hour chart, formation of a double bottom. WMA5 dip below EMA200 and rebounded above EMA200. Now supporting it and after yesterday battle that seem that the buyers has won, lies EMA200 and EMA100. EMA21 failed to go below EMA200 and indicate further a likelihood for going up. Resistance at 2.0700 and support at 2.0520.
4. Personal Assessment: All play now lies at the EUrope market today. GBP has a news on Bussiness Investment, which has been on the rise - a positive effect on GBP, but this is not a strong news. US stock market is close and with yesterday dip, the momentum will contiune. Technically, it will be a matter of when the GBP break up. From the indicators watch out for CCI to bit the second BB line and for EMA21 to rebound off EMA200. The formation of a double bottom from the 1 hour chart has indicated that the battle was won by the buyers.
US will be having Thanksgiving Holiday.
2. Stock Market: The world market plunged, ranging from Asia to Europe to US. All closes anything from 1.33% to 2.5%! Hang Seng has 4.5%!
3. Major Currencies: USD show sign of weakening against all major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, the up is gaining momentum, should CCI cleared the second BB line, a high chance of going up. From the 1 hour chart, formation of a double bottom. WMA5 dip below EMA200 and rebounded above EMA200. Now supporting it and after yesterday battle that seem that the buyers has won, lies EMA200 and EMA100. EMA21 failed to go below EMA200 and indicate further a likelihood for going up. Resistance at 2.0700 and support at 2.0520.
4. Personal Assessment: All play now lies at the EUrope market today. GBP has a news on Bussiness Investment, which has been on the rise - a positive effect on GBP, but this is not a strong news. US stock market is close and with yesterday dip, the momentum will contiune. Technically, it will be a matter of when the GBP break up. From the indicators watch out for CCI to bit the second BB line and for EMA21 to rebound off EMA200. The formation of a double bottom from the 1 hour chart has indicated that the battle was won by the buyers.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
21 Nov 2007
1. News: There was no mention on interest rate at FOMC. Instead, "The housing collapse and credit crisis will slow economic growth and nudge up unemployment next year, "the Federal Reserve said Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind forecast.
Today ST 1730hrs, BOE issued a generally downbeat assessment of the economy in its quarterly inflation report and effectively indicated that rates would be cut within the next few months. It look to be negative for the UK currency given that there will be a discussion of interest rate cuts and the UK growth risks with the possibility of a very close vote.
2. Stock market: The FTSE gain yesterday by more than 100 points. The rest of Europe also rally. US market took the chance for some profit taking. DOW close 50 points up.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies except the JPY, did a breakout, strengthening against the GBP.
4. Technicals: From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 managed to punch through EMA200. The testing point will be for GBP to sailed pass the price at 2.0700. A rebound could happen and that gives the support at 2.0520. Another support is at 2.0420.
5. Personal assessment: GBP has not shown any clear direction, but the chances for it to go up is there. CCI has reversed and pierce through the first BB line. EMA21 from the daily chart has passed EMA200 and should it not reverse, given the first support at 2.0520, GBP has again good to go up. BoE will cut rates, but so far only one member consent to it.
Today ST 1730hrs, BOE issued a generally downbeat assessment of the economy in its quarterly inflation report and effectively indicated that rates would be cut within the next few months. It look to be negative for the UK currency given that there will be a discussion of interest rate cuts and the UK growth risks with the possibility of a very close vote.
2. Stock market: The FTSE gain yesterday by more than 100 points. The rest of Europe also rally. US market took the chance for some profit taking. DOW close 50 points up.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies except the JPY, did a breakout, strengthening against the GBP.
4. Technicals: From the 1 hour chart, WMA5 managed to punch through EMA200. The testing point will be for GBP to sailed pass the price at 2.0700. A rebound could happen and that gives the support at 2.0520. Another support is at 2.0420.
5. Personal assessment: GBP has not shown any clear direction, but the chances for it to go up is there. CCI has reversed and pierce through the first BB line. EMA21 from the daily chart has passed EMA200 and should it not reverse, given the first support at 2.0520, GBP has again good to go up. BoE will cut rates, but so far only one member consent to it.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
20 Nov 2007
1. News: It has been quiet yesterday. Today watch out for US Housing starts - but this figure will continue to fall and will not be much out of expectation. The biggest news to watch for is FOMC at Singapore time Wed 0300hrs. Will Fed cut interest rate?
2. Stock Market: Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Stock markets overseas also slumped. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 2.71 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.65 percent.
3. Major Currencies: It has been much a side way movement for the dollars against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: Yesterday saw WMA5 (daily chart) attempting to pass EMA100, but failed. The CCI move down with yesterday price, but not into an oversold position. Likewise on the 1 hour chart, EMA5 failed to punch up through EMA55 and EMA100. The question is a matter of time and attempts. 2.0400 still pose a good support line for price to sail to EMA200 on the daily chart. On the contrary, 2.0570 is a good price for resistance.
5. Personal Assessment: The last two time Fed announced interest rate cut, it push the GBP up. (Sep 18 and Nov 1). There has been hints of no cut this time round. 'Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,' 'since the October rate cut, the data suggests the US economy is still 'resilient,' but noted that volatility and strains remain.' Bernanke warns.
A good look out is for WMA to pass support 2.0400 or EMA100 or pass resistance 2.0570 or EMA55. It can go both way with good chance for both. With a quiet day all brewing towards FOMC - play with caution.
2. Stock Market: Wall Street resumed its slide Monday as investors absorbed a gloomy outlook for the banking sector as well as bleak news about housing. The major stock market indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrial average giving up more than 200 points.
Stock markets overseas also slumped. In European trading, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 2.71 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 slid 1.65 percent.
3. Major Currencies: It has been much a side way movement for the dollars against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: Yesterday saw WMA5 (daily chart) attempting to pass EMA100, but failed. The CCI move down with yesterday price, but not into an oversold position. Likewise on the 1 hour chart, EMA5 failed to punch up through EMA55 and EMA100. The question is a matter of time and attempts. 2.0400 still pose a good support line for price to sail to EMA200 on the daily chart. On the contrary, 2.0570 is a good price for resistance.
5. Personal Assessment: The last two time Fed announced interest rate cut, it push the GBP up. (Sep 18 and Nov 1). There has been hints of no cut this time round. 'Further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity,' 'since the October rate cut, the data suggests the US economy is still 'resilient,' but noted that volatility and strains remain.' Bernanke warns.
A good look out is for WMA to pass support 2.0400 or EMA100 or pass resistance 2.0570 or EMA55. It can go both way with good chance for both. With a quiet day all brewing towards FOMC - play with caution.
Monday, November 19, 2007
19 Nov 2007
1. News: A series of forthcoming 'downbeat' data releases will not necessarily lead to another interest rate cut, Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner has warned financial markets.
There are no major news both from the UK and the US today.
2. Stock Market: In relative to the US, the European market showed weakness on Friday. The FTSE was down by more than 1%. The DOW was down and recovered only in the last hours of trading.
3. Major Currencies:The USD showed no sign of strengthening against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, CCI did not go into an oversold position. WMA5 rebounded off EMA100 and head straight towards EMA55 and will attempt to clear it. Should it clear it, price will go towards EMA21 at 2.0655. Likewise, the attempt may failed and GBP will go towards EMA200, should WMA5 clear EMA100. The support line is at 2.0400.
5. Personal Assessment: No major news today. The market may consoldiate after last week dip. A uptrend is possible depending how WMA5 perform.
There are no major news both from the UK and the US today.
2. Stock Market: In relative to the US, the European market showed weakness on Friday. The FTSE was down by more than 1%. The DOW was down and recovered only in the last hours of trading.
3. Major Currencies:The USD showed no sign of strengthening against the major currencies.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, CCI did not go into an oversold position. WMA5 rebounded off EMA100 and head straight towards EMA55 and will attempt to clear it. Should it clear it, price will go towards EMA21 at 2.0655. Likewise, the attempt may failed and GBP will go towards EMA200, should WMA5 clear EMA100. The support line is at 2.0400.
5. Personal Assessment: No major news today. The market may consoldiate after last week dip. A uptrend is possible depending how WMA5 perform.
Friday, November 16, 2007
16 Nov 2007
1. News: US CPI inflation met expectations with a rise of 0.3 pct in October from September, as strong inflation will make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates again. Jobless claims also painted a gloomy picture for the economy. Data showed there were 339,000 new claims for the week ending Nov 10, up 20,000 from the prior week and higher than expectations for a broadly unchanged reading.On the flipside, the New York Fed's manufacturing survey for November suggested business conditions remained firm in October, with the reading dipping to 27.37 from 28.75 in October.
In its quarterly inflation report released yesterday, the Bank of England said it expects tighter credit conditions, lower house price inflation and heightened inflation to dampen consumer spending. After yesterday's dovish Bank of England inflation report, which all but confirmed that two UK interest rate cuts will be forthcoming next year, the weak figures will add to speculation that the first move could come as early as next month.
2. Stock Market: Europe market and US market both down. Admist fear of gas price and oil prices, triggered uncertainity. For this week, both UK and US has been reporting negative news indicating a weakening US and UK economy .
3. Major Currencies: Both CHF and EUR seemed to be moving side way, giving no strong clues in which direction. The JPY showed another round of strengthening process.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, WMA5 passed EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. In term of price, GBP is now hoveing near 2.0430, around EMA100. Should WMA5 clear EMA55, there will be a good tendency for GBP to reach EMA200 or at 2.0230. On the contrary, from the 1 hour chart, WMA5 may attempt to move up and pass EMA21, at 2.0520
5. Personal Assessment: Being the last day of the week and with few major news, I don't expect any reversal of the GBP to happen today. It will be good to observe how WMA5 from the daily chart perform in the case of a rebound off EMA55. GBP should go down to bring the CCI to an oversold position, and should such a case well supported by EMA5 clearing EMA55, the price could posible reach support at EMA200 or at 2.0230
In its quarterly inflation report released yesterday, the Bank of England said it expects tighter credit conditions, lower house price inflation and heightened inflation to dampen consumer spending. After yesterday's dovish Bank of England inflation report, which all but confirmed that two UK interest rate cuts will be forthcoming next year, the weak figures will add to speculation that the first move could come as early as next month.
2. Stock Market: Europe market and US market both down. Admist fear of gas price and oil prices, triggered uncertainity. For this week, both UK and US has been reporting negative news indicating a weakening US and UK economy .
3. Major Currencies: Both CHF and EUR seemed to be moving side way, giving no strong clues in which direction. The JPY showed another round of strengthening process.
4. Technicals: From the daily chart, WMA5 passed EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. In term of price, GBP is now hoveing near 2.0430, around EMA100. Should WMA5 clear EMA55, there will be a good tendency for GBP to reach EMA200 or at 2.0230. On the contrary, from the 1 hour chart, WMA5 may attempt to move up and pass EMA21, at 2.0520
5. Personal Assessment: Being the last day of the week and with few major news, I don't expect any reversal of the GBP to happen today. It will be good to observe how WMA5 from the daily chart perform in the case of a rebound off EMA55. GBP should go down to bring the CCI to an oversold position, and should such a case well supported by EMA5 clearing EMA55, the price could posible reach support at EMA200 or at 2.0230
Thursday, November 15, 2007
15 Nov 2007
1. News: The BoE's latest forecasts showed annual inflation would be at 2.00 pct in two years' time, based on market forecasts that interest rates will fall to 5.2 pct by early 2009 and 5.1 pct by the end of 2009.If interest rates stay as they are at 5.75 pct, however, CPI inflation will fall to around 1.75 pct, the report showed. The pound weakened in expectation of an interest rate cut.
In the US, Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, were unchanged in October. The last time core prices rose more slowly was in March, when they fell 0.1 pct. This push further the pound down.
Tonight, there will be news from the US on Unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. In expectation, Government data released Thursday is forecast to show crude-oil inventories fell last week for the fourth straight period.
2. Stock Market: Europe market did a mini rally yesterday, with the FSTS running up by more than 1%. On the contrary, US market was mainly still yesterday, but ended in red during the last hour of trading.
3. Major Currencies: With exception from GBP, the rest of the major curreny did relatively small movement, forming doji.
4. Technicals: GBP came down to form the C-wave. From the 1 day chart, WMA5 cleared EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. However, bearing in mind that 2.0600 used to be a resistance line for months, before a breakout happened late last month.
5. Personal Assessment: With all the negative news from the UK coming to an end and with major reporting now coming from the US, I will expect some form of consolidation to happen. Yes the formation of the C-wave is there, and indicator from CCI continue to show the potential for GBP to go south till a oversold position. However, 2.0600 and EMA55 (1 day chart) may prove to be a support line. Therefore, watch out for any such formation in CCI or a rebound of WMA5 on EMA55 (1 day) and should there be a need, please abandon short position.
In the US, Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, were unchanged in October. The last time core prices rose more slowly was in March, when they fell 0.1 pct. This push further the pound down.
Tonight, there will be news from the US on Unemployment claims and crude oil inventories. In expectation, Government data released Thursday is forecast to show crude-oil inventories fell last week for the fourth straight period.
2. Stock Market: Europe market did a mini rally yesterday, with the FSTS running up by more than 1%. On the contrary, US market was mainly still yesterday, but ended in red during the last hour of trading.
3. Major Currencies: With exception from GBP, the rest of the major curreny did relatively small movement, forming doji.
4. Technicals: GBP came down to form the C-wave. From the 1 day chart, WMA5 cleared EMA21 and will attempt to clear EMA55. However, bearing in mind that 2.0600 used to be a resistance line for months, before a breakout happened late last month.
5. Personal Assessment: With all the negative news from the UK coming to an end and with major reporting now coming from the US, I will expect some form of consolidation to happen. Yes the formation of the C-wave is there, and indicator from CCI continue to show the potential for GBP to go south till a oversold position. However, 2.0600 and EMA55 (1 day chart) may prove to be a support line. Therefore, watch out for any such formation in CCI or a rebound of WMA5 on EMA55 (1 day) and should there be a need, please abandon short position.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
14 Nov 2007
1. News: Yesterday UK CPI reported better results than expected. Also today, The UK interest rate debate will remain very open in the short term and the Bank of England quarterly inflation report will be important for rate expectations.there is likely to be some downside Sterling risk on a cautious outlook for the economy. There is likely to be some downside Sterling risk on a cautious outlook for the economy.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
13 Nov 2007
1. News: Manufacturers raised output prices by their highest annual amount in 12 years, as they pushed through the cost of higher crude oil and food prices on to customers. Rate-setters at the Bank of England will be concerned about the sharp rises in both input and output prices ahead of the release of its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday.
Today, The Tuesday UK consumer inflation data will be important in determining the near-term pricing pressures and the degree of flexibility that the bank will have to respond to fears over a slowdown in growth. A low reading for inflation would make it much more likely that the bank would sanction a December interest rate cut to offset the credit crunch.
2. Stock Market: The Dow closes below 13,000. Wall Street ratcheted its way through a fractious session Monday before finally closing lower on expectations of further fallout from the ongoing credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials, up more than 100 points during the day, ended below 13,000 for the first time since August. On the contracry, European market closes mixed.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies make a retracement against the dollars yesterday.
4. Technicals: With yesterday, the formation of three black crows was completed. Using a 1 day chart, the GBP hit the EMA55. It touches the 2.0560 - 2.0620 region that for the last 2 months it has been trying to break.
5. Personal Assessment: There are no big news in the US that will affect the GBP greatly today. Of course with yesterday Dow dip, it may follow through the momentum for another day of dip or consolidation, giving the fact that 13,000 is a good support line, which DOW has been trying to break this year.
UK has a CCI annoucement 1730hrs.
The FTSE close at 6337 yesterday,which the FTSE failed to push through resistance at the confluence of the 100 and 200 SMAs at 6,426/35 on Friday, indicating that equities are lacking bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the index stopped short of falling through the 50 percent retracement level of 5,821.7. The reversal took place.
With 3 days of black crows, the expectation will be mixed today.
My expectation is for the GBP to do a consolidation today, bouncing off the EMA55 on the daily chart, forming a B-wave, before the creation of a C-wave towards EMA200 on the daily chart.
I will place a breakout south at 2.0500, with support at 2.0200. Alternatively, the break out north is at 2.0720
Today, The Tuesday UK consumer inflation data will be important in determining the near-term pricing pressures and the degree of flexibility that the bank will have to respond to fears over a slowdown in growth. A low reading for inflation would make it much more likely that the bank would sanction a December interest rate cut to offset the credit crunch.
2. Stock Market: The Dow closes below 13,000. Wall Street ratcheted its way through a fractious session Monday before finally closing lower on expectations of further fallout from the ongoing credit crisis. The Dow Jones industrials, up more than 100 points during the day, ended below 13,000 for the first time since August. On the contracry, European market closes mixed.
3. Major Currencies: All major currencies make a retracement against the dollars yesterday.
4. Technicals: With yesterday, the formation of three black crows was completed. Using a 1 day chart, the GBP hit the EMA55. It touches the 2.0560 - 2.0620 region that for the last 2 months it has been trying to break.
5. Personal Assessment: There are no big news in the US that will affect the GBP greatly today. Of course with yesterday Dow dip, it may follow through the momentum for another day of dip or consolidation, giving the fact that 13,000 is a good support line, which DOW has been trying to break this year.
UK has a CCI annoucement 1730hrs.
The FTSE close at 6337 yesterday,which the FTSE failed to push through resistance at the confluence of the 100 and 200 SMAs at 6,426/35 on Friday, indicating that equities are lacking bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the index stopped short of falling through the 50 percent retracement level of 5,821.7. The reversal took place.
With 3 days of black crows, the expectation will be mixed today.
My expectation is for the GBP to do a consolidation today, bouncing off the EMA55 on the daily chart, forming a B-wave, before the creation of a C-wave towards EMA200 on the daily chart.
I will place a breakout south at 2.0500, with support at 2.0200. Alternatively, the break out north is at 2.0720
Friday, November 09, 2007
9 Nov 2007
1. News: UK interest rate remains at 5.75%. US unemployment rate fall.
Two important news today is on UK and US trade balance. However, the figure release would be more or less as expected. As such, the pressure is for GBP to continue to climb.
2. Stock Market: European market moved sideway yesterday, with US market contiune to take a dip. Stocks extended the previous day's steep losses after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that a raft of economic troubles could dent business growth and after Cisco's comments touched off unease about business spending. But buyers moved back in late in the session, apparently thinking the market's selloff had been overdone.
3. Major Currencies: EUR, CHF continune to show strength, with the JPY forming a doji.
4. Technicals: With no reversal in view, GBP seem to be ramping up for another up-wave. A good resistance to hit is at 2.1280. However, on the contrary, CCI(34) showed a overbought case and somewhat and unless CCI pass through the cnetral of the BB, GBP will make a upward trend. Support will be at 2.0960.
5. Personal Assessment: I believe the market will move side and lingers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart), after a failure to do so yesterday, before a rebound north. There are no signs of UK intend to weaken the pound nor there is sign of US economy recovery. The northward bound will be abandon should GBP sailed pass 2.0960 and CCI(34) from 1 day chart go below the BB central line.
Two important news today is on UK and US trade balance. However, the figure release would be more or less as expected. As such, the pressure is for GBP to continue to climb.
2. Stock Market: European market moved sideway yesterday, with US market contiune to take a dip. Stocks extended the previous day's steep losses after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that a raft of economic troubles could dent business growth and after Cisco's comments touched off unease about business spending. But buyers moved back in late in the session, apparently thinking the market's selloff had been overdone.
3. Major Currencies: EUR, CHF continune to show strength, with the JPY forming a doji.
4. Technicals: With no reversal in view, GBP seem to be ramping up for another up-wave. A good resistance to hit is at 2.1280. However, on the contrary, CCI(34) showed a overbought case and somewhat and unless CCI pass through the cnetral of the BB, GBP will make a upward trend. Support will be at 2.0960.
5. Personal Assessment: I believe the market will move side and lingers between EMA21 and EMA55 (1 hour chart), after a failure to do so yesterday, before a rebound north. There are no signs of UK intend to weaken the pound nor there is sign of US economy recovery. The northward bound will be abandon should GBP sailed pass 2.0960 and CCI(34) from 1 day chart go below the BB central line.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
25 Oct 2007
1. News: US reported a falling housing sales numbers and the ripple effect will be that the housing credit woes are not over yet and now people are feeling the actual effect.
Today, two major news, the unemployment claims at SGT 2030 and New Home sales at SGT2200. These news will be watch to signify the health of the economy.
2. Stock Market: Bank of America has announced to cut 3000 jobs. the Dow dip a little yesterday but in general, movement in the stock market is calm. Euorpean market too move sideway, end slightly in the red.
3. Major Currencies: EUR move sideway yesterday, a sign of consolidation after days of strengthening against the dollar. CHF and JPYlooked as it would be weaken against the dollars.
4. Technicals: With the 1 hour chart, GBP was well supported by EMA200. Attempts to clear through 2.0440 failed. Movement has been side way for the day, after 2 days of big swing down and up. On the 1 day chart, CCI showed that GBP would continue to strengthen till it achieved an overbought position. Resistance seemed to be set at 2.0500, where a big punch through would render 2.0500 becoming a good support line. A clear break north is set at 2.0640
5. Personal Assessment: The European government has been weary of the strong EUR, but is there a way to put it to a stop? US economy continue to show sign of weakness, and further coupled with next week Fed interest annoucement with a potential to cut rates will sent the dollars to a new low. Decisions to buy is difficult as you may be catch in a overbought position. Market has clearly consolidated yesterday and a breakout is emminent. I will wait for a clear signal, with north after a firm 2.0525 and south after a firm 2.0340. Attempts will be for WMA5 (using the 1 hour chart) to clear EMA200 at 2.0440. Therefore, it will either clear it and go south or rebound to go north.
Today, two major news, the unemployment claims at SGT 2030 and New Home sales at SGT2200. These news will be watch to signify the health of the economy.
2. Stock Market: Bank of America has announced to cut 3000 jobs. the Dow dip a little yesterday but in general, movement in the stock market is calm. Euorpean market too move sideway, end slightly in the red.
3. Major Currencies: EUR move sideway yesterday, a sign of consolidation after days of strengthening against the dollar. CHF and JPYlooked as it would be weaken against the dollars.
4. Technicals: With the 1 hour chart, GBP was well supported by EMA200. Attempts to clear through 2.0440 failed. Movement has been side way for the day, after 2 days of big swing down and up. On the 1 day chart, CCI showed that GBP would continue to strengthen till it achieved an overbought position. Resistance seemed to be set at 2.0500, where a big punch through would render 2.0500 becoming a good support line. A clear break north is set at 2.0640
5. Personal Assessment: The European government has been weary of the strong EUR, but is there a way to put it to a stop? US economy continue to show sign of weakness, and further coupled with next week Fed interest annoucement with a potential to cut rates will sent the dollars to a new low. Decisions to buy is difficult as you may be catch in a overbought position. Market has clearly consolidated yesterday and a breakout is emminent. I will wait for a clear signal, with north after a firm 2.0525 and south after a firm 2.0340. Attempts will be for WMA5 (using the 1 hour chart) to clear EMA200 at 2.0440. Therefore, it will either clear it and go south or rebound to go north.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
24 Oct 2007
1. News: US will be announcing Home Sales at 2200hrs. The result, should it fall out of expectation will send the dollars weaken.
2. Stock Mkt: US Market did a profit taking yesterday with DOW gaining 100 points after losing more than 300 points last week. Results of good earning helped push the market up.
3. Currency: Dollars weaken on overll with all major currency. Signs of further weakening is there.
4. Technicals: GBP zoom passed 2.0500 and sailed pass EMA200 on the 1 hour chart, clearing with ease 2.0420. As such, that formed a good support line, with much potential for GBP to hit a new high of 2.0600
5. Personal View: US economy has showed signs of weakness and with no UK news to counter, the dollars is expected to weaken against the GBP. Of course, 2.0420 give the support. CCI from 1 day chart showed a contiune movement up to bring GBP to a overbought position. The high is set at 2.0765. Of course and naturally 2.0650 (all time high) give the resistance.
2. Stock Mkt: US Market did a profit taking yesterday with DOW gaining 100 points after losing more than 300 points last week. Results of good earning helped push the market up.
3. Currency: Dollars weaken on overll with all major currency. Signs of further weakening is there.
4. Technicals: GBP zoom passed 2.0500 and sailed pass EMA200 on the 1 hour chart, clearing with ease 2.0420. As such, that formed a good support line, with much potential for GBP to hit a new high of 2.0600
5. Personal View: US economy has showed signs of weakness and with no UK news to counter, the dollars is expected to weaken against the GBP. Of course, 2.0420 give the support. CCI from 1 day chart showed a contiune movement up to bring GBP to a overbought position. The high is set at 2.0765. Of course and naturally 2.0650 (all time high) give the resistance.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
17 Oct 2007
1. News: UK CPI, one of the key economic indicator for inflation fell below expectation to 1.5%. The move suggest a impending inflation and strongly urge BoE to cut interest rate like its Fed counterpart. This CPI has been below the BoE's 2.0 pct target rate for three months running and has weighed on sterling since it raises expectations that UK interest rates could be cut before the end of this year.
Also yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the slumping housing market remains a "significant drag" on the economy. Oil hit another high at $88, with the potential to erode away any weak dollars advantage the US economy enjoy in export. All showing more oreintation to a weaker economy.
BoE will meet to discuss interest rate today at 1630.
Also at 2030, US housing starts. A low level of housing activity signals that the construction industry isgoing down and that consumers have less the capital to make large investments.
2. Stock market is down for both Europe and US, mainly due to the news.
3. GBP fell against all major currencies yesterday.
4. Technically, the GBP look for another day of fall to the support line at 2.0270 and 2.0200. Again, the attempt togo above 2.04500 failed and that offer and suggested the super resistance line.
5. My personal view:
Key figures released yesterday has pushed the GBP down, technically, the GBP has moved side way and it is now looking for a clear trend. Most likely, BoE will reduce interest rate next month. With most EUR and GBP make high against the dollars, the intention to weaken the currencies is there. EUR hit high, but failed to clear 1.430.
On the US side, all words about the economy is that there will be pending recession, the dollars has weakened and that helped to cushion US export.
Technically, CCI showed down and has been side way. A good formation to wait is for CCI to either clear BB mean line or to go below -150 to get into a oversold condition.
I will favour a sell today, with support at EMA55 on the daily chart. Attempt to break it is good before EMA100. It's time for GBP to make some clear trend.
Also yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the slumping housing market remains a "significant drag" on the economy. Oil hit another high at $88, with the potential to erode away any weak dollars advantage the US economy enjoy in export. All showing more oreintation to a weaker economy.
BoE will meet to discuss interest rate today at 1630.
Also at 2030, US housing starts. A low level of housing activity signals that the construction industry isgoing down and that consumers have less the capital to make large investments.
2. Stock market is down for both Europe and US, mainly due to the news.
3. GBP fell against all major currencies yesterday.
4. Technically, the GBP look for another day of fall to the support line at 2.0270 and 2.0200. Again, the attempt togo above 2.04500 failed and that offer and suggested the super resistance line.
5. My personal view:
Key figures released yesterday has pushed the GBP down, technically, the GBP has moved side way and it is now looking for a clear trend. Most likely, BoE will reduce interest rate next month. With most EUR and GBP make high against the dollars, the intention to weaken the currencies is there. EUR hit high, but failed to clear 1.430.
On the US side, all words about the economy is that there will be pending recession, the dollars has weakened and that helped to cushion US export.
Technically, CCI showed down and has been side way. A good formation to wait is for CCI to either clear BB mean line or to go below -150 to get into a oversold condition.
I will favour a sell today, with support at EMA55 on the daily chart. Attempt to break it is good before EMA100. It's time for GBP to make some clear trend.
Friday, October 12, 2007
12 Oct 2007
1. US Jobless claim fell and is better than expected. Trade Balance is better than expected too. As such, it justified the economy sentiments that the credit woes did not and was not due to the fundamental. This would give an indication that the economy is not hitting a recession.
With no major UK news today and with Fed speaking today (ST) at 2110, after US PPI announcement, the trend of a stronger dollars will continue. Fed is expected to cut rate, but who knows what will Ben say tonight, given indication of a "still" robust economy.
2. Europe market did a "mini" rally yesterday, with FTSE gaining almost a 100 points. US market on the contrary did some profit taking.
Note: Accordingly, a bullish rally in the market has a reverse effect on the country currency. Though not always true, people will sell away the currency to borrow cheaper currency and buy stocks.
3. Major currency ended mix. With Euro up, GBP down, CHF Up and JPY down against the US dollars.
4. Using the daily chart, no rebound and that signifies that GBP will contiune to move south. EMA21 will be the first hurdle WMA5 will cross and if it does so, a good support line will be at EMA55 or 2.0250. Of course, the resistance line is still strongly entrench at 2.0450./2.0500
Using the 1 hour chart, EMA21 has managed to cross EMA200. A good indication of a further movement south is when EMA100 cross EMA200.Should this not occur, EMA200 or 2.0380 make a immediate resistance line and 2.0400 will indicate a breakout towards 2.0450/2.0500.
With no major UK news today and with Fed speaking today (ST) at 2110, after US PPI announcement, the trend of a stronger dollars will continue. Fed is expected to cut rate, but who knows what will Ben say tonight, given indication of a "still" robust economy.
2. Europe market did a "mini" rally yesterday, with FTSE gaining almost a 100 points. US market on the contrary did some profit taking.
Note: Accordingly, a bullish rally in the market has a reverse effect on the country currency. Though not always true, people will sell away the currency to borrow cheaper currency and buy stocks.
3. Major currency ended mix. With Euro up, GBP down, CHF Up and JPY down against the US dollars.
4. Using the daily chart, no rebound and that signifies that GBP will contiune to move south. EMA21 will be the first hurdle WMA5 will cross and if it does so, a good support line will be at EMA55 or 2.0250. Of course, the resistance line is still strongly entrench at 2.0450./2.0500
Using the 1 hour chart, EMA21 has managed to cross EMA200. A good indication of a further movement south is when EMA100 cross EMA200.Should this not occur, EMA200 or 2.0380 make a immediate resistance line and 2.0400 will indicate a breakout towards 2.0450/2.0500.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
11 Oct 2007
1. There were already hints and rumors that Fed is again going to cut rate. Bernanke will speak this Friday.
The European govts have met, talking about the strength in Euro against the dollars - a sign of weakening it.
Today at Singapore time 2230hrs, US is going to announce Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims.
2. The US market has been rallying with yesterday, taking some profits. It points in general a good indication of a strong fundamental in the US economics, despite the credit woes that has attract too much media attention.
In addition, the Euro market close mix, with FSTE up 17 points.
3. Major currency climb high against the dollar yesterday, however, the strength was short live by the time the US market opens.
4. GBP break the 2.0450 resistance yesterday and threathen 2.0500. It tested 2.0500, but make a reverse during US market.
Using the daily chart, CCI indicator is mixed, a sign of GBP moving in a unsure direction. It seem to be making up towards the BB(14, 0.3) mark. A sure sign of rebound is when it clear the BB median line.
Using the 1 hour chart, a strong support line is build up at 2.0380. Should WMA5 and EMA21 clear pass that support, which is make up of both EMA100 and EMA200, a good breakout south will occur. However, GBP may rebound at the support line and try again to pass 2.0500.
The European govts have met, talking about the strength in Euro against the dollars - a sign of weakening it.
Today at Singapore time 2230hrs, US is going to announce Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims.
2. The US market has been rallying with yesterday, taking some profits. It points in general a good indication of a strong fundamental in the US economics, despite the credit woes that has attract too much media attention.
In addition, the Euro market close mix, with FSTE up 17 points.
3. Major currency climb high against the dollar yesterday, however, the strength was short live by the time the US market opens.
4. GBP break the 2.0450 resistance yesterday and threathen 2.0500. It tested 2.0500, but make a reverse during US market.
Using the daily chart, CCI indicator is mixed, a sign of GBP moving in a unsure direction. It seem to be making up towards the BB(14, 0.3) mark. A sure sign of rebound is when it clear the BB median line.
Using the 1 hour chart, a strong support line is build up at 2.0380. Should WMA5 and EMA21 clear pass that support, which is make up of both EMA100 and EMA200, a good breakout south will occur. However, GBP may rebound at the support line and try again to pass 2.0500.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
9 Oct 2007
1. Last night at 2230hrs, Euro govt gathered to discuss about the strength of the Euro against the dollar.
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro softened, particularly against the dollar, as euro area finance ministers meet to discuss, among other topics, how to contain the strength of their common currency.In the run-up to the Ecofin meeting, held today and tomorrow, politicians have been vocal about the need to do something about the strength of the euro. Together, they will be drafting a policy stance to bring to the G7 meeting later this month, in an effort to make other currencies -- the US dollar, most notably -- to appreciate.
Also, GBP PPI continue to weaken.
As a result, yesterday the GBP came down from above 2.0420 to 2.0350.
Today at 1630hrs, theres is a news on GBP trade balance and Euro Central Bank chief Trichet will be speaking. At 2230, The Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the annual Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons. The report contains important insights such as spending levels, borrowing estimates, and GDP growth forecasts for the following year.
2. Overall, Europe market did a dip. US market close with little movement from Friday rally.
3. Against the dollars, EUR and CHF has reverse and weaken against the dollar. The Yen continue its weakening process but seem to slow down.
4. On the technical, from the daily chart, the GBP has reverse. The momentum should contiune and a good support line is at 2.0240, the EMA55 line. Upward movement is possible, but a strong resistance is felt at 2.0450, considering the GBP trying but fail to breakout of this line for the last 5 days.
On the 1 hour chat, clearly the EMA21 has cross the EMA200 and should move south. A good gauge will be at 2.0330 to observe whether a U-turn will occur, else it will be making today low.
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The euro softened, particularly against the dollar, as euro area finance ministers meet to discuss, among other topics, how to contain the strength of their common currency.In the run-up to the Ecofin meeting, held today and tomorrow, politicians have been vocal about the need to do something about the strength of the euro. Together, they will be drafting a policy stance to bring to the G7 meeting later this month, in an effort to make other currencies -- the US dollar, most notably -- to appreciate.
Also, GBP PPI continue to weaken.
As a result, yesterday the GBP came down from above 2.0420 to 2.0350.
Today at 1630hrs, theres is a news on GBP trade balance and Euro Central Bank chief Trichet will be speaking. At 2230, The Chancellor of the Exchequer will present the annual Pre-Budget Report and the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review to the House of Commons. The report contains important insights such as spending levels, borrowing estimates, and GDP growth forecasts for the following year.
2. Overall, Europe market did a dip. US market close with little movement from Friday rally.
3. Against the dollars, EUR and CHF has reverse and weaken against the dollar. The Yen continue its weakening process but seem to slow down.
4. On the technical, from the daily chart, the GBP has reverse. The momentum should contiune and a good support line is at 2.0240, the EMA55 line. Upward movement is possible, but a strong resistance is felt at 2.0450, considering the GBP trying but fail to breakout of this line for the last 5 days.
On the 1 hour chat, clearly the EMA21 has cross the EMA200 and should move south. A good gauge will be at 2.0330 to observe whether a U-turn will occur, else it will be making today low.
Monday, October 08, 2007
8 Oct 2007
1. The Labor Department's report that employers added 110,000 jobs in September -- essentially what analysts had expected -- reassured Wall Street that the job market wasn't pulling back sharply as was feared a month ago (from yahoo). But on the contrary, GBP pull higher amidst the stock market rebound.
To me, this raise give false sense of the actual US economy. If the economy is truely performing, dollars will strengthen against the GBP. But not so. Therefore either GBP will fall or if really true, the US economy will show sign of weakening.
US holiday today and all news is from Europe.
Today, News of UK PPI at 1630hrs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
2. US marker rallied on Friday. It will be a questioned for the Eupore market to have a rally.
3. Against the major currencies, the dollars show signs of weakening.
4. Using the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA200 or 2.0390. This is a good support and rebound for GBP. Aleternatively, a breakout north for GBP is at 2.0450. A breakout south is at 2.0340.
To me, this raise give false sense of the actual US economy. If the economy is truely performing, dollars will strengthen against the GBP. But not so. Therefore either GBP will fall or if really true, the US economy will show sign of weakening.
US holiday today and all news is from Europe.
Today, News of UK PPI at 1630hrs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) Input measures the rate of inflation (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by manufacturers when purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. When manufactures pay more for goods and services, they are likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation. PPI is highly regarded, and at extremes will have a market impact equal to that of its CPI counterpart.
2. US marker rallied on Friday. It will be a questioned for the Eupore market to have a rally.
3. Against the major currencies, the dollars show signs of weakening.
4. Using the 1 hour chart, support is at EMA200 or 2.0390. This is a good support and rebound for GBP. Aleternatively, a breakout north for GBP is at 2.0450. A breakout south is at 2.0340.
Friday, October 05, 2007
4 Oct 2007
News:
The Bank of England has announced that the interest rate has remain the same. Unlike the Fed that cut the rate, in order to ease the housing mortage woes, UK did not do so. And anyway, the attention to the credit market and the problem with Northern Rock has pass media attention.
Sterling would still be likely to weaken sharply if rates are cut as futures markets have certainly not priced this in. With the Bank of England did not do so, GBP jump up after the announcement of rate remaining at 5.75% by a 50 pips, then to another 50 pips.
US is announcing unemployment claims - but not likely to influence the movement of the GBP.
Therefore, with all things remain unchange, GBP with yesterday influence will contiune to inch up.
Stock Market:
The Europe stock market performed moderately with mix emotions. US made a slight inch up. Overall, thee showed no good indication which direction GBP is heading today.
Currency Bench mark:
Most of the makor currency has strengthen against the USD today, after the last fews days of weakening. The direction against USD may contiune.
Technical:
The 1 hour chart show sign of a continue strength for GBP to go up, with stron support from EMA100 and EMA200. Should EMA21 clear EMA55 and EMA100, the direction is sure.
However, the mix comes from the daily chart, Yes there is a rebound from yesterday, and the question is how high?
The first resistance line is 2.0430 (yesterday peak) and 2.0500 (Monday peak), with 2.0650 as the whole year peak.
Support is at 2.0355 (1hour EMA200) and a breakout south is at 2.0290 (after yesterday low, for the downward trend to contiune).
The Bank of England has announced that the interest rate has remain the same. Unlike the Fed that cut the rate, in order to ease the housing mortage woes, UK did not do so. And anyway, the attention to the credit market and the problem with Northern Rock has pass media attention.
Sterling would still be likely to weaken sharply if rates are cut as futures markets have certainly not priced this in. With the Bank of England did not do so, GBP jump up after the announcement of rate remaining at 5.75% by a 50 pips, then to another 50 pips.
US is announcing unemployment claims - but not likely to influence the movement of the GBP.
Therefore, with all things remain unchange, GBP with yesterday influence will contiune to inch up.
Stock Market:
The Europe stock market performed moderately with mix emotions. US made a slight inch up. Overall, thee showed no good indication which direction GBP is heading today.
Currency Bench mark:
Most of the makor currency has strengthen against the USD today, after the last fews days of weakening. The direction against USD may contiune.
Technical:
The 1 hour chart show sign of a continue strength for GBP to go up, with stron support from EMA100 and EMA200. Should EMA21 clear EMA55 and EMA100, the direction is sure.
However, the mix comes from the daily chart, Yes there is a rebound from yesterday, and the question is how high?
The first resistance line is 2.0430 (yesterday peak) and 2.0500 (Monday peak), with 2.0650 as the whole year peak.
Support is at 2.0355 (1hour EMA200) and a breakout south is at 2.0290 (after yesterday low, for the downward trend to contiune).
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
3 Oct 2007
There are not many major news in the European market that will move the GBP. So it will be a quiet afternoon. The US is announcing Non farm employment and Non manufacturing index. To know more goto www.forexfactory.com
The overall effect on GBP is not a sure one, but should the results show a worst off, GBP will go upwards.
The DOW is taking profit yesterday after Monday rally. Bad news was reported affecting sales and consumer confidence. Should the European market rally today, which it has not been so, despite both the Asian and US market being so, then GBP will move upwards.
The major currency has reverse against the USD. Will the trend contiune down?
Technically, CCI on a daily chart show a downward trend. Within the 1 hour chart, WMA5 is sandwich between EMA55 and EMA200. The movement is not a sure one.
Support is at 2.0350 and resistance at 2.0450
The overall effect on GBP is not a sure one, but should the results show a worst off, GBP will go upwards.
The DOW is taking profit yesterday after Monday rally. Bad news was reported affecting sales and consumer confidence. Should the European market rally today, which it has not been so, despite both the Asian and US market being so, then GBP will move upwards.
The major currency has reverse against the USD. Will the trend contiune down?
Technically, CCI on a daily chart show a downward trend. Within the 1 hour chart, WMA5 is sandwich between EMA55 and EMA200. The movement is not a sure one.
Support is at 2.0350 and resistance at 2.0450
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
2 Oct 2007
There are no major news today. As such, the movement may not be wild today.
DOW clear 14,000 and a good rally in yesterday Wall street. Like wise, the European market did fairly with FTSE gaining a 0.6%.
Fundamental, with no major news to trigger movement, It is not expected to have any big rally again in either the Europe or the US market. People these days has become more cautious and take profit first.
Technically, the indication showed a higher probability of a downward movement. Using a 1 hour chart, WMA5 will move side way between EMA21/55 and EMA100. Unless, the intention is to catch any u and down movement, a breakout will be at 2.0330 and 2.0500.
DOW clear 14,000 and a good rally in yesterday Wall street. Like wise, the European market did fairly with FTSE gaining a 0.6%.
Fundamental, with no major news to trigger movement, It is not expected to have any big rally again in either the Europe or the US market. People these days has become more cautious and take profit first.
Technically, the indication showed a higher probability of a downward movement. Using a 1 hour chart, WMA5 will move side way between EMA21/55 and EMA100. Unless, the intention is to catch any u and down movement, a breakout will be at 2.0330 and 2.0500.
Monday, October 01, 2007
1 Oct 2007
What happen on Friday during US market? The GBP suddenly shoot up. Is it an indication of the weakening of the US economy? Everyone is now expecting a slow down, after speeches from Ben Bernanke and President Bush.
The EUR, YEN and CHF has made stronger against the USD. It is a matter of time (which happen last Friday) before a strong breakout.
Technically, GBP can climb to the next high at 2.0700, which is the Fib retracement line. That will be a new high for GBP and a strong resistance line. GBP is indeed overbought (using CCI).
A short retracement is expected, using either the daily chart or the 1 hour chart. CCI has indicated a reversal. Using the daily chart, the support line is at EMA21 and using the 1 hours chart the support line is at EMA100. The price is estimated at 2.0390.
The EUR, YEN and CHF has made stronger against the USD. It is a matter of time (which happen last Friday) before a strong breakout.
Technically, GBP can climb to the next high at 2.0700, which is the Fib retracement line. That will be a new high for GBP and a strong resistance line. GBP is indeed overbought (using CCI).
A short retracement is expected, using either the daily chart or the 1 hour chart. CCI has indicated a reversal. Using the daily chart, the support line is at EMA21 and using the 1 hours chart the support line is at EMA100. The price is estimated at 2.0390.
Friday, September 28, 2007
28 Sep 2007
Yesterday news end with mix turn out. New homes sales hit low, while unemployment claims saw a drop. The Dow inch up with moderate 34 points.
Over at the Euopean side, the market also end fairly yesterday.
I will expect the movement on the GBP as moderate, with no major news. However the UK consumer confidence may tell some sign of the UK economy.
Technically, using the daily chart, the GBP moved up. A resistance to watch is 2.0300, the next at 2.0458. CCI indicate a continue up trend, pushing for another overbought situation. If the last 2 days saw the formation of the B-wave, yesterday will mark the begining of the C-Wave up towards the resistance line.
The support line is at 2.0200 and 2.0180 if the WMA5 reverse and cross the EMA100 and EMA200 using the 1 hour chart
Over at the Euopean side, the market also end fairly yesterday.
I will expect the movement on the GBP as moderate, with no major news. However the UK consumer confidence may tell some sign of the UK economy.
Technically, using the daily chart, the GBP moved up. A resistance to watch is 2.0300, the next at 2.0458. CCI indicate a continue up trend, pushing for another overbought situation. If the last 2 days saw the formation of the B-wave, yesterday will mark the begining of the C-Wave up towards the resistance line.
The support line is at 2.0200 and 2.0180 if the WMA5 reverse and cross the EMA100 and EMA200 using the 1 hour chart
Thursday, September 27, 2007
27 Sep 2007
3 major US news tonight:
GDP
Unemplyment claims
New House Sale
Is the US economy doing well as expected. Probably not. There is a strong chance that the news will bring the GBP up.
Technically, a flag was formed. The price can breakout in any direction. The price is at 2.0220 and 2.0050.
GDP
Unemplyment claims
New House Sale
Is the US economy doing well as expected. Probably not. There is a strong chance that the news will bring the GBP up.
Technically, a flag was formed. The price can breakout in any direction. The price is at 2.0220 and 2.0050.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
26 Sep 2007
Two news was announced yesterday: Actual Forecast Previous
10:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.50M 5.50M 5.75M
10:00pm USD Consumer Confidence 99.8 104.5 105.6
Both showed figures that is worst off than previous, confidence is worst than forecast. This shows a contrast to the economy spelling a recssionally pressure, as property is one of the main indicator for the economy. The Fed did what was right in lowering rates, but will that help the people to pay up their loans? As such, this thursday unemployment claims may tell another side of the story - are the poeple earning and have the capacity to pay.
Technically, if the UK economy remain status quo, WMA5 in the 1 hour chart has rebounded from EMA200. It went below my predicted line at 2.0124 and rebounded. The WMA5 should contiune to moved northward, ending the B-wave, before the next C-wave.
10:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.50M 5.50M 5.75M
10:00pm USD Consumer Confidence 99.8 104.5 105.6
Both showed figures that is worst off than previous, confidence is worst than forecast. This shows a contrast to the economy spelling a recssionally pressure, as property is one of the main indicator for the economy. The Fed did what was right in lowering rates, but will that help the people to pay up their loans? As such, this thursday unemployment claims may tell another side of the story - are the poeple earning and have the capacity to pay.
Technically, if the UK economy remain status quo, WMA5 in the 1 hour chart has rebounded from EMA200. It went below my predicted line at 2.0124 and rebounded. The WMA5 should contiune to moved northward, ending the B-wave, before the next C-wave.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
25 Sep 2007
The US economy is still enjoying the short term effect from the Fed cut. With housing sales this evening, it will add to another dimension to indicate how well the economy is going.
EUR and Swiss has been making high against the dollar, but somewhat the momentum is still strong.
Technically, GBP seem to be making a short retracement. Support is at 2.0124, before another northward climb.
EUR and Swiss has been making high against the dollar, but somewhat the momentum is still strong.
Technically, GBP seem to be making a short retracement. Support is at 2.0124, before another northward climb.
Monday, September 24, 2007
24 Sep 2007
The upward momentum should continue, as there will not be any major news this week that will stop that north bound direction. On Tuesday - there will be a Home sales (but I don't think it will make big impact, even if the figure release is worse off, as this is more or less expected and interest rate has been reduced to solve this problem). On Thursday, there is a GDP , Unemployment claims.
Technically, 2.0115 gives a very good support line. WMA5 has sailed passed EMA55 and EMA21 is also showing momnetum to push through. There may be a dip on the CCI(34) indicator, but will not be below the median of the BB.
Technically, 2.0115 gives a very good support line. WMA5 has sailed passed EMA55 and EMA21 is also showing momnetum to push through. There may be a dip on the CCI(34) indicator, but will not be below the median of the BB.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
20 Sep 2007
Final the wait is over. Fed announced a half a percent cut in intrest rate. I will expect the northward climb of the GBPUSD until a major announcement of either UK/US economic news that will reverse the trend.
Take note of the news tonight at 2030 - US Unemployment claims. If the news show more claims than expected, the price may go southward.
Technically, looking at the daily chart. I will clamped the price between EMA100 and EMA200, that is 2.0130 and 1.9950. That is expect a breakout at 2.0180 or 1.9880, the two Fib retracement line calculated from 12 to 17 Sep 2007.
Take note of the news tonight at 2030 - US Unemployment claims. If the news show more claims than expected, the price may go southward.
Technically, looking at the daily chart. I will clamped the price between EMA100 and EMA200, that is 2.0130 and 1.9950. That is expect a breakout at 2.0180 or 1.9880, the two Fib retracement line calculated from 12 to 17 Sep 2007.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
18 Sep 2007
Fundamentally, the US market data showed a pending recession, but according to Greenspan, the inflationary presseure is still there - by looking at the oil and gold prices. Would Fed raise or lower?
Personally, I believed Fed will lower it by a quarter point and that will not move the GBP/USD pair in any big movement.
Looking at the technical from the hourly chart, GBP has punch through the EMA200. It may go on further south to settle at the next support line at around 1.9835. From the daily chart, that's hitting the EMA55 line.
After which, I will expect a reversal.
Personally, I believed Fed will lower it by a quarter point and that will not move the GBP/USD pair in any big movement.
Looking at the technical from the hourly chart, GBP has punch through the EMA200. It may go on further south to settle at the next support line at around 1.9835. From the daily chart, that's hitting the EMA55 line.
After which, I will expect a reversal.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
13 Sep 2007
GBP seemed to be strongly resisted at around 2.0350.
Fundamentally, everyone is waiting, waiting for 18 Sep announcement.
I am expecting a continuation to whip saw between 2.0350 and EMA200.
Technically, I favour a short, I am now waiting for CCI(34) to go into overbrought and rebound into the very first BB(14,0.9). It may take these few days.
Fundamentally, everyone is waiting, waiting for 18 Sep announcement.
I am expecting a continuation to whip saw between 2.0350 and EMA200.
Technically, I favour a short, I am now waiting for CCI(34) to go into overbrought and rebound into the very first BB(14,0.9). It may take these few days.
Monday, September 10, 2007
10 Sep 07
Should and will Fed reduce interest rate and by how much?
Last Friday, we saw another great fall in the stocks market and this time it was triggered by a mere loss of 4000 jobs instead of the expected 110000.
My personal feeling was that the last market woes on the sub-prime was due not to poor lending, but more fundamental - employment. Unemployment leads to loss of jobs and income and therefore a failure to repay loan or even take any re-financing scheme. The results will be more re-procession of housing and that will trigger a cycle of cuts and spending.
The Fed should reduce interest rate to save the high housing loans, but a reduction also signal the coming of a recession - how? Check mate?
Fundamentally, it now a wait and see game.
Short term, with the GBP go north last week, I will forsee a southward direction. It not my favour in any direction, but I believe the market will move cautiously and any movement in any direction will be offset very fast.
A good resistance line is at 2.0330 and a a good support at 1.9957.
Last Friday, we saw another great fall in the stocks market and this time it was triggered by a mere loss of 4000 jobs instead of the expected 110000.
My personal feeling was that the last market woes on the sub-prime was due not to poor lending, but more fundamental - employment. Unemployment leads to loss of jobs and income and therefore a failure to repay loan or even take any re-financing scheme. The results will be more re-procession of housing and that will trigger a cycle of cuts and spending.
The Fed should reduce interest rate to save the high housing loans, but a reduction also signal the coming of a recession - how? Check mate?
Fundamentally, it now a wait and see game.
Short term, with the GBP go north last week, I will forsee a southward direction. It not my favour in any direction, but I believe the market will move cautiously and any movement in any direction will be offset very fast.
A good resistance line is at 2.0330 and a a good support at 1.9957.
Friday, September 07, 2007
7 Sep 2007
Frankly, I do not know how the market will go and it seem that all is waiting for Sep 18th for the Fed decision. Through I have been away for holiday this week, the market has not move significantly in any direction.
I still favour a long, knowing that long and believe the pound will hover between 2.0000 and 2.0300 for the next week.
I still favour a long, knowing that long and believe the pound will hover between 2.0000 and 2.0300 for the next week.
Friday, August 31, 2007
31 Aug 2007
US Market shows mix feelings last night, though the European and Asian market traded stronger yesterday (profit taking). The market may show a mix today with everyone trading with caution.
In the daily chart, for GBPUSD a hammer was formed. WMA5 still sandwich between EMA55 and EMA100. Throughout the last 3 days the price has been moving side way. I am expecting a breakthrough. Using a fibonachi retracement, the support line is at 2.0200, above the EMA55 line, while the support is at 2.0013, below the EMA100 line. But even should the price fall below 2.0013, the next support line is at the EMA200 at 1.9900.
In the daily chart, for GBPUSD a hammer was formed. WMA5 still sandwich between EMA55 and EMA100. Throughout the last 3 days the price has been moving side way. I am expecting a breakthrough. Using a fibonachi retracement, the support line is at 2.0200, above the EMA55 line, while the support is at 2.0013, below the EMA100 line. But even should the price fall below 2.0013, the next support line is at the EMA200 at 1.9900.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
30 Aug 2007
GBPUSD - UP
I was wrong yesterday, profits taking take place in the midst of Tuesday freefall and despite the concerns of the spread of sub-prime woes.
Leading toward Feb interest rate announcement, I will expect the market to head north with an assurance that the rate is going to be cut.
Looking at the technicals, on a daily chart, WMA5 nows hover between EMA55 and EMA100. Both direction can go. If the last 2 days is the formation of the B-wave, I will expect a big breakout north today.
I will set the breakout for today at 2.0190 and 2.0010. The resistance is at 2.0330 and the support is at 1.9935.
I was wrong yesterday, profits taking take place in the midst of Tuesday freefall and despite the concerns of the spread of sub-prime woes.
Leading toward Feb interest rate announcement, I will expect the market to head north with an assurance that the rate is going to be cut.
Looking at the technicals, on a daily chart, WMA5 nows hover between EMA55 and EMA100. Both direction can go. If the last 2 days is the formation of the B-wave, I will expect a big breakout north today.
I will set the breakout for today at 2.0190 and 2.0010. The resistance is at 2.0330 and the support is at 1.9935.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
29 Aug 2007
29 Aug - GBPUSD - Down
The Asian market as predicted, closed in the red. So are the European market. Wall Street after Feb FOMC meeting, plunged more than 280points.
Now with every banks taking stocks of their impact of the sub-prime woes and Feb refusal to confirm interest rate cut, I liken that for today, we will see more reds.
Using a daily chart, GBPUSD broke pass EMA55 and EMA100. It too sailed pass the support line as predicted yesterday at 2.0050. I expect the price to hit towards EMA200 with the first support line at 1.9916 and 1.9852. This is calculated using Fib Retracement from the last climb.
The Asian market as predicted, closed in the red. So are the European market. Wall Street after Feb FOMC meeting, plunged more than 280points.
Now with every banks taking stocks of their impact of the sub-prime woes and Feb refusal to confirm interest rate cut, I liken that for today, we will see more reds.
Using a daily chart, GBPUSD broke pass EMA55 and EMA100. It too sailed pass the support line as predicted yesterday at 2.0050. I expect the price to hit towards EMA200 with the first support line at 1.9916 and 1.9852. This is calculated using Fib Retracement from the last climb.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
28 Aug 2007
GBPUSD broke the 2.01330 support, meaning that it will head south.
But I believe this as part of the B-wave retracement.
The next support is at 2.0050. Once this sail pass, WMA5 will also sail pass EMA100 and EMA55 on the daily chart. The price will find the next support at EMA200, which is approx at 1.9900.
The Asian and the European market did well yesterday, but not he DOW. I expect some profit taking this morning and this will drive GBPUSD further south.
But I believe this as part of the B-wave retracement.
The next support is at 2.0050. Once this sail pass, WMA5 will also sail pass EMA100 and EMA55 on the daily chart. The price will find the next support at EMA200, which is approx at 1.9900.
The Asian and the European market did well yesterday, but not he DOW. I expect some profit taking this morning and this will drive GBPUSD further south.
Monday, August 27, 2007
27 Aug 2007
I believe GBP/USD will continue to be bullish.
Looking at the news that is coming up - FOMC on the 28 Aug. The feb will adjust the interest rate low to give a push in the economy. But fundamentally, the reason for doing so imply a weaker economy.
Technically, GBPUSD, using a daily chart, WMA5 has just clear EMA55 and EMA21 is still showing signs of going north.
I will put the support line at 2.0130 and expect a U-turn north. On the break out I have place long at 2.0210
Looking at the news that is coming up - FOMC on the 28 Aug. The feb will adjust the interest rate low to give a push in the economy. But fundamentally, the reason for doing so imply a weaker economy.
Technically, GBPUSD, using a daily chart, WMA5 has just clear EMA55 and EMA21 is still showing signs of going north.
I will put the support line at 2.0130 and expect a U-turn north. On the break out I have place long at 2.0210
Monday, July 30, 2007
Fundamentally why the Dollars is strengthen when the DOW is down
With reference from http://www.fxcm.com/analyze-currencies.jsp
Stock and the country currencies
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a high correlation between the performance of the US stock market and the USD (against the Euro). A rallying stock market in any part of the world provides an ideal investment opportunity for individuals regardless of geographic location and as a result there is a strong correlation between a country’s equity market and its currency. If the equity market is rising, investment dollars will flow in to seize the opportunity. Alternatively, falling equity makes will have domestic investors selling their shares to seize investment opportunities abroad.
Stock up -> Currency strengthen
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interest Rates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the market has uncertainty regarding interest rates, then any bit of news regarding interest rates can directly affect the currency markets. Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen in relation to other countries, as investors shift assets to that country to gain a higher return. Hikes in interest rates, however, are generally bad news for stock markets. Some investors will transfer money out of a country's stock market when interest rates are hiked, believing that higher borrowing costs will affect ballance sheet negatively and result in devalued stock, causing the country's currency to weaken. Which effect dominates can be tricky, but generally there is a consensus beforehand as to what the interest rate move will do.
Interest Rate up -> Currency strengthen
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unemployment Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The unemployment rate is a strong indicator of a country’s economic strength. When unemployment is high, the economy may be weak – and hence its currency may fall in value.
Unemplyment Rate up -> Currency weaken
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stock and the country currencies
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There is a high correlation between the performance of the US stock market and the USD (against the Euro). A rallying stock market in any part of the world provides an ideal investment opportunity for individuals regardless of geographic location and as a result there is a strong correlation between a country’s equity market and its currency. If the equity market is rising, investment dollars will flow in to seize the opportunity. Alternatively, falling equity makes will have domestic investors selling their shares to seize investment opportunities abroad.
Stock up -> Currency strengthen
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interest Rates
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If the market has uncertainty regarding interest rates, then any bit of news regarding interest rates can directly affect the currency markets. Traditionally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency of that country will strengthen in relation to other countries, as investors shift assets to that country to gain a higher return. Hikes in interest rates, however, are generally bad news for stock markets. Some investors will transfer money out of a country's stock market when interest rates are hiked, believing that higher borrowing costs will affect ballance sheet negatively and result in devalued stock, causing the country's currency to weaken. Which effect dominates can be tricky, but generally there is a consensus beforehand as to what the interest rate move will do.
Interest Rate up -> Currency strengthen
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unemployment Rate
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The unemployment rate is a strong indicator of a country’s economic strength. When unemployment is high, the economy may be weak – and hence its currency may fall in value.
Unemplyment Rate up -> Currency weaken
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, July 29, 2007
GBP for this coming week 29 July 2007
Firstly, solely on technicals. Cables may go lower. WMA5 has already cross EMA21 and will head towards EMA55. Using fabonacci retractment, the nxt support line is at 2.0206 - not very far away. If WMA5 cross EMA55, the next support will be at 2.0058. Else if WMA5 failed to cross EMA55, the price may rebound to 2.0390 and hovers between EMA21 and EMA55. On the CCI side, most likely CCI(34) will make a oversold condition hitting -150. A good buy time will be when CCA(34) enters the BB(14, 0.9) boundary.
What will then cause the GBP to move down below to 2.0058 or retrace above 2.0390. The news. There are a few big news this week. GBP CPI, US Unemployment Claims and US employment rate. With the recent DOW and the Asian market taking a big dip, this will also affect the prices outcome. If the these news sing in the same tune, you can expect a uni direction next week, else it will be a case of moving between the two price band.
Monday, July 16, 2007
16 July 2007
GU
The market may break in both direction. A price value of around 2.0446 as well as 2.0220.
Though strongly, in my own analysis, GU has taken a turn, but becare not to fall into the trap. If a short is desired, wait for the crossing of the signal CCI(34) on BB(14,0.3). Signal WMA3 has already cross WMA5, so just be patient and wait.
EU
It has make a good turn around, but again I will suggest to wait for CCI(100) to cross EMA(7). In fact, EU will follow the direction of GU today.
The market may break in both direction. A price value of around 2.0446 as well as 2.0220.
Though strongly, in my own analysis, GU has taken a turn, but becare not to fall into the trap. If a short is desired, wait for the crossing of the signal CCI(34) on BB(14,0.3). Signal WMA3 has already cross WMA5, so just be patient and wait.
EU
It has make a good turn around, but again I will suggest to wait for CCI(100) to cross EMA(7). In fact, EU will follow the direction of GU today.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
11 July
GU and EU forecast.
GU climbed and made new high, breaking the 2.0220 mark. My indicators show that there is more momentum to climb high. Yes indeed, I have to abandon the short position and change them to a long.
EU climbed high yesterday too, rebounded from 1.3600. I got 20pips from it, but failed to catch the long after it rebound. Today, I will expect it to go long like the pound.
GU climbed and made new high, breaking the 2.0220 mark. My indicators show that there is more momentum to climb high. Yes indeed, I have to abandon the short position and change them to a long.
EU climbed high yesterday too, rebounded from 1.3600. I got 20pips from it, but failed to catch the long after it rebound. Today, I will expect it to go long like the pound.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
10 July - GU and EU
I am still expecting the market to take a dip.
There will be a Trade Balance report on GBP today at 1630hrs Singapore Time. The outcome may bring the GBP in either direction. Yesterday PPI anouncement has brought up GBP up. As such I may have to take loss and abandon and short position if price clear pass the resistance level at 2.0200.
EU has made a dip and I will expect it to go south towards the first support line at around 1.3600.
I am still expecting the market to take a dip.
There will be a Trade Balance report on GBP today at 1630hrs Singapore Time. The outcome may bring the GBP in either direction. Yesterday PPI anouncement has brought up GBP up. As such I may have to take loss and abandon and short position if price clear pass the resistance level at 2.0200.
EU has made a dip and I will expect it to go south towards the first support line at around 1.3600.
Sunday, July 08, 2007
9 July 2007 Forecast
The following forecast is based on Singapore Time, on GBP, EUR, JPY and USD
The following forecast is based on Singapore Time, on GBP, EUR, JPY and USD
GBP/USD
The are no big news affecting GBP, except PPI. But in my opinion, with the expected increase in oil prices, PPI will increase, therefore the impact on GBP/USD will not be that great.
Looking at the technical chart:
I expect the GBP/USD to go south, I put no figure to take profit, but watch out when the price hit EMA21 on the daily chart or when CCI hit the first BB. When that happens, a reversal may take place and GBP/USD may take a new high.
EUR/USD
After 3 black crows and a big white, I expect the EUR to go side way. Similar, I expect a dip first before a big movement up.
Tuesday, January 09, 2007
9 Jan 2007
Today is clearly a day of dispersion. I will wait for the WMA5 and EMA21 to stablize first before entering my trade.
Monday, January 08, 2007
STI
My friends still trade in STI.
Recently it made a climb to 3000. Ask me if it will go higher.
Yes, it will go higher to a level that is 3350 to 3500, riding strongly on the C-wave. But careful to let go by Apr 2007, after the period of companies report announcement.
Recently it made a climb to 3000. Ask me if it will go higher.
Yes, it will go higher to a level that is 3350 to 3500, riding strongly on the C-wave. But careful to let go by Apr 2007, after the period of companies report announcement.
GBP for 8 Jan
After 3 blacks for the last 3 trading days. I am expecting a long candle today.
It look very potential for the price to continue to go south. I will put the support at 1.883.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, all the EMAs are lined up for a go south!
Friday, January 05, 2007
5 Jan 07 Cables
5 Jan 07
Yesterday, cables continue to go south. It breaks the first support line at 1.95, as well as EMA21 by WMA5 on the daily chart.
I expect the downward trend to continue with the next support line at 1.93.
It will be good to watch hw the WMA5 behaves at EMA55. If it cuts through EMA55, the downward trend will continue.
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